金融创新风险及其防范研究

金融创新为微观金融主体提供规避风险和获利手段,促进金融市场一体化,推进经济金融发展,同时也给金融系统带来的新的风险.本文将探讨如何从金融创新监管,金融创新主体,行业组织和监管国际协作角度对金融创新风险进行有效的防范.     

互联网金融:内生性风险与法律监管逻辑

互联网金融是金融创新的产物,其在一定程度上改变了金融交易结构,代表了金融民主化和普惠金融的趋势。应当把互联网金融作为践行创新性金融监管理念的试验田,探索未来“新金融”监管的范式。互联网金融的有效监管必须具有翔实的微观基础,如厘清其体系边界、业态模式以及内生性的风险等。重塑法律监管原则与逻辑,通过提供有效法律供给、完善征信体系、切实保护金融消费者合法权益、充分协调和发挥各监管主体的监管职能是我国互联网金融法律监管的可行性路径。     

互联网金融:内生性风险与法律监管逻辑

互联网金融是金融创新的产物,其在一定程度上改变了金融交易结构,代表了金融民主化和普惠金融的趋势。应当把互联网金融作为践行创新性金融监管理念的试验田,探索未来"新金融"监管的范式。互联网金融的有效监管必须具有翔实的微观基础,如厘清其体系边界、业态模式以及内生性的风险等。重塑法律监管原则与逻辑,通过提供有效法律供给、完善征信体系、切实保护金融消费者合法权益、充分协调、发挥各监管主体的监管职能是我国互联网金融法律监管的可行性道路。     

金融创新风险的分类及其形成

本文通过对金融创新和金融风险的分析,讨论了金融创新风险的一般概念。然后,根据金融创新风险产生的原因以及对金融体系的不同影响进行分类,划分为金融创新自身活动及产品风险、金融创新市场风险、金融创新机构风险、金融创新货币政策及监管风险、金融创新系统化及国际化风险等,并对每一种风险的形成进行分析和阐述。     

金融创新风险的分类及其形成

本文通过对金融创新和金融风险的分析,讨论了金融创新风险的一般概念.然后,根据金融创新风险产生的原因以及对金融体系的不同影响进行分类,划分为金融创新自身活动及产品风险、金融创新市场风险、金融创新机构风险、金融创新货币政策及监管风险、金融创新系统化及国际化风险等,并对每一种风险的形成进行分析和阐述.     

中国互联网金融风险及监管对策研究

互联网金融在我国发展迅速,对传统金融行业的＂鲶鱼效应＂显著。互联网金融是金融创新的产物,代表了金融民主化和普惠金融的趋势。同时,它具有第三方支付风险、网络借贷风险、＂长尾＂风险等内生性风险。在保护创新与普惠精神、有效维护金融稳定和金融秩序之间寻求平衡,是监管的基本原则和逻辑。重塑法律监管原则与逻辑,通过提供有效法律供给、切实保护金融消费者合法权益、完善征信体系等是互联网金融法律监管的可行性路径。     

互联网金融风险及监管对策研究

互联网金融在我国发展迅速,对传统金融行业的“鲶鱼效应”显著.互联网金融是金融创新的产物,代表了金融民主化和普惠金融的趋势.同时,它具有第三方支付风险、网络借贷风险、“长尾”风险等内生性风险.在保护创新与普惠精神、有效维护金融稳定和金融秩序之间寻求平衡,是监管的基本原则和逻辑.重塑法律监管原则与逻辑,通过提供有效法律供给、切实保护金融消费者合法权益、完善征信体系等是互联网金融法律监管的可行性路径.     

金融科技背景下金融基础设施的系统性风险及其监管因应

金融科技应用于金融基础设施提升基础设施服务质效、催生新型金融基础设施,也使平台型金融科技公司具备了部分金融基础设施功能。金融科技应用具有扩大和缓释金融基础设施系统性风险的双重作用。金融基础设施系统性风险面临监管资源压力、动机缺陷和数据局限三重考验,需以高效信息协同为基础,实施全面性、前瞻性的风险识别监管,并通过科技监管工具“以技术应对技术”实现革新。应建立“金融基础设施—关键参与者—金融科技公司”的全面监管框架,高效管理金融基础设施中的金融科技应用风险,并以监管科技推进监管机构引导风险协同共治、监测整体风险发展,重塑金融基础设施系统性风险的监管逻辑。     

金融集聚风险传导机制及预防对策

金融集聚风险的传导主体多元、诱因复杂、路径多变,它不仅对金融集聚区本身产生影响,也极有可能通过对实体产业和区域经济的传导引发产业危机和区域经济危机。金融集聚区内竞争和创新过度、金融脆弱性和外部因素是引发金融集聚风险传导的主要诱因;金融集聚风险的传导方向和路径主要有金融集聚区内传导、向实体产业传导、向外部联系地区传导和国际化传导。预防金融集聚风险,要加强对集聚区内各主体的风险监管,构建金融集聚区与实体产业的风险防火墙,建立金融集聚风险识别平台和金融集聚网络风险评估预警机制,加强金融机构、金融集聚区与政府的协同交流,完善发挥行业协会作用,加强国际金融集聚风险防控交流合作。     

互联网金融创新发展的监管政策探析

近年来互联网金融在我国实现了创新性的快速发展,在提升金融服务的同时也包含了较大的经营性、技术性和市场性风险因素。现有的监管政策尚未完全适应互联网金融的创新性变革,在监管政策体系、机构整合、功能统筹、风险化解以及消费者权益保护等方面还存在明显的不足。在此基础上,提出了完善监管政策体系、明确监管主体职责以及加强部门间的监管功能协同等政策建议,以促进互联网金融在风险可控基础上的创新发展。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.