金融行业间的资产风险外溢影响

银行业、保险业和证券业因投资业务而构建起联系，并基于金融资产价格而具有了传染渠道。随着投资活动愈发频繁，金融行业中各行业内部的资产风险可能外溢至其他行业。本文首先从理论上分析金融行业资产风险通过投资资产外溢的过程，通过搭建资产抛售模型模拟资产风险的传染机制，从机构层面和行业层面分析资产风险的生成与传递。其次，基于金融机构实际数据的模拟分析结果显示，四大国有商业银行和中国平安具有外溢风险的能力，首先影响银行和保险公司，随后再扩散到整个金融行业，而证券业则相对较为独立。银行业的外溢影响最大，其次是保险业和证券业。但事实上很难发生足以对外部造成显著影响的损失事件。资产、投资比例、杠杆和监管要求水平在资产风险外溢的过程中具有一定的影响。     

金融素养、金融资产配置与投资组合有效性

基于动态最优控制理论模型，运用中国家庭微观调查数据，系统研究了金融素养在家庭金融资产配置中的作用及对投资组合有效性的影响。理论分析表明，在一定条件下，金融素养能够显著提升家庭资产中风险性资产的配置比重，有助于实现消费效用最大化。考虑了内生性的实证分析结果表明：金融素养对于风险性资产与金融资产具有显著的正向影响，但无法作用于国债这类无风险资产；金融素养的提升有助于增加股票与基金的配置概率，有助于实施积极的投资策略，但对消极投资策略不显著；金融素养的提升能够显著增加家庭投资组合有效性，促使家庭获得更多的超额回报。     

Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles

Although there has not been a large-scale systemic crisis in China, high-risk financial events have occurred continuously in recent years. This research thus creatively analyzes the determinants of systemic risk for Chinese financial institutions from the view of asset price bubbles. First, we identify bubbles in the China stock and real estate markets on the basis of the generalized sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) model and explain the reasons for bubble formations according to the stage of China's economic development and policies implementation. At this stage, considering the differences in economic development levels of different cities, the real estate bubbles in the first, second and third tier cities and the whole country were innovatively identified. Second, on the basis of the DCG-GARCH-CoVaR model to measure the systemic risk of listed financial institutions in China and to classify institutions, the results show that the main source of such risk is the banking sector. Furthermore, by constructing regression models, stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles both positively correlate with systemic risk throughout the sample period. Meanwhile, the impact of bubbles on the systemic risk of different types of financial institutions was taken into account so that regulators prioritized different types of institutions with different characteristics when faced with decisions. Finally, we provide macro-prudential policy advice to regulators in order to weaken the impact of bubbles on financial stability to avoid systemic crises.     

Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations

We develop a macroeconomic model in which the balance sheet condition of financial institutions plays an important role in the determination of asset prices and economic activity. The financial intermediaries in our model are required to make investment commitments before a complete resolution of idiosyncratic funding risk that can be addressed only by costly refinancing, forcing them to behave in a risk-averse manner. The model shows that the balance sheet condition of intermediaries can drive asset values away from their fundamentals, causing aggregate investment and output to respond to shocks to intermediaries. We use this model to evaluate several public policies designed to address balance sheet problems at financial institutions. With regard to short-run policies, we find that capital injections conditioned upon voluntary recapitalization can be a more effective tool than asset purchases. With regard to long-run policies, we demonstrate that higher capital requirements can have sizable short-run effects on economic activity, and that a long transition period helps avoid undesirable side effects. Finally, we show that the marginal effects of policies can be larger during “crises” because of the nonlinear interactions between some financial frictions and policy actions.     

研发投入、内部控制与财务风险相关性研究

由于研发创新能为企业带来可观的投资回报,因此有更多的企业注重提高自身的研发创新水平。近几年,我国整体研发规模在不断扩大,但企业关于研发投入的财务风险管理方面还存在不足之处。本文选取2016-2020年国内A股上市企业为研究对象,对研发投入、内部控制与财务风险的相关性进行实证分析。研究结果显示:内部控制质量与财务风险负相关;研发投入与财务风险正相关;并提出相应对策,以期通过这一研究,对我国上市企业把控研发投入力度,提升内部控制质量,降低财务风险发生概率提供理论与实践的参考和借鉴。     

Environmental,social and governance disclosure and default risk

We investigate whether environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure is related to default risk. Using a sample of US nonfinancial institutions from 2006 to 2017, we find that ESG disclosure is positively related to Merton's distance to default and is negatively related to the credit default swap spread, which suggests that firms with a higher ESG disclosure have lower default risk. Our analysis further indicates that the inverse effect of ESG disclosure on default risk is through increased profitability and reduced performance variability and cost of debt. We also document that the negative impact of ESG disclosure on default risk is existent only for mature and older firms. These results are important for all stakeholders of firms, including shareholders and bondholders to consider firm's ESG disclosure in conjunction with life cycle stage before making their investment decisions.     

The effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on Chinese macroeconomic volatilities

This paper builds an open-economy DSGE model to study the effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on the macroeconomic volatilities and estimate the model with the Bayesian method and Chinese quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2017Q4. We further test the validity of model predictions with panel analyses of Chinese provincial data from 1987 to 2016 and various robustness tests. The results show that: first, further financial openness will lead to an increase in output volatility but U-shaped changes in consumption and investment volatilities. Second, financial efficiency improvement helps to reduce the macroeconomic volatilities but has a diminishing marginal benefit. Third, our estimates of China's degree of financial openness and financial efficiency are both at the medium level close to the thresholds. It implies that further financial openness will dramatically increase the macroeconomic volatilities but whether financial efficiency improvement can mitigate instability is uncertain.     

研发投资、舞弊风险与审计费用

以2007—2018年中国A股市场研发投资额大于零的非金融类上市公司为研究对象,实证研究研发投资强度对财务舞弊风险和审计费用的影响以及CPA审计治理效果。研究结果表明：研发投资强度与财务舞弊风险和审计费用均正相关,并且财务舞弊风险在研发投资强度对审计费用的影响中存在部分中介效应。使用工具变量法进行内生性分析发现,研发投资强度在前三种度量方式（研发投入额÷总资产、研发投入额÷净资产、研发投入额÷公司员工数）下具有很强的外生性,而在第四种度量方式（研发投入额÷营业收入）下是内生的。对审计治理效果进行分析发现,虽然高审计收费保证了CPA较高的执业努力程度,但与审计合谋正相关的异常审计费用的存在使得CPA审计治理效果并不佳,并且对研发投资强度大的客户、财务舞弊风险高的客户和高新技术企业收取更高的异常审计费用通常与更高的审计合谋倾向有关。     

上市公司财务预警理论研究探析

本文在回顾国内外财务预警研究理论的基础上,从财务失败和财务失真两个方面探讨了财务预警问题,提出了财务失败和财务失真结合的双元综合投资风险的预警方法,并对其应用性进行了探讨。     

Foreign direct investment and its impact on the Thai economy: the role of financial development

This paper examines the roles of foreign direct investment and financial development in the process of economic development using Thailand as the case study. We argue that better developed financial systems allow an economy to exploit the benefits of foreign direct investment more efficiently. The estimation draws upon an unrestricted error-correction model to avoid omitted lagged variable bias, and an instrumental variable estimator to correct for endogeneity bias. Using annual time series data from 1970 to 2004, the results show that financial development stimulates economic development whereas foreign direct investment impacts negatively on output expansion in the long run. However, an increased level of financial development enables Thailand to gain more from foreign direct investment, suggesting that the impact of foreign direct investment on output growth can be enhanced through financial development. The results are robust to different measures of financial development.      

Internal vs External Financing of Acquisitions: Do Managers Squander Retained Profits?

It is often argued that managers who have control over investment finance are more likely to pursue their own goals while those who have to raise funds externally are effectively monitored by the financial markets. One implication is that externally finances investment should be more profitable than internally financed investment. We focus on investment in acquisitions and show that its negative net impact on profitability (as seen in previous studies) derives from externally, rather than internally, financed acquisitions. Our results therefore do not support the hypothesis that managers squander internal funds on poor investment projects. Indeed, the evidence suggests that capital markets and financial institutions do not appear to generate the anticipated beneficial effects.     

In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking

Monetary policy can have an impact on economic and financial stability through the risk taking of banks. Falling interest rates might induce investment into risky activities. This paper provides evidence on the link between monetary policy and bank risk taking. We use a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) for the US for the period 1997–2008. Besides standard macroeconomic indicators, we include factors summarizing information provided in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Terms of Business Lending (STBL). These data provide information on banks׳ new loans as well as interest rates for different loan risk categories and different banking groups. We identify a risk-taking channel of monetary policy by distinguishing responses to monetary policy shocks across different types of banks and different loan risk categories. Following an expansionary monetary policy shock, small domestic banks increase their exposure to risk. Large domestic banks do not change their risk exposure. Foreign banks take on more risk only in the mid-2000s, when interest rates were ‘too low for too long’.     

酒店投资项目风险探析

在酒店项目投资决策阶段,进行投资风险分析是必然的要求;在整个项目过程中,进行风险管理也势在必行。论文结合我国酒店项目投资实际,从理论探讨和实际应用两个方面,较系统深入地研究了酒店工程项目投资风险,结合财务评价阐述了风险识别和评估内容及风险控制和转移的措施,并结合具体的工程项目提出来对酒店项目投资风险管理的一些启示。     

Supply chain finance: From traditional to supply chain credit rating

Traditional credit rating models, adopted by financial institutions to assess the credit risk of a company, adopt a purely financial perspective, and often fail to properly assess small and medium enterprises. On the other hand, buyers usually assess suppliers by means of comprehensive vendor ratings, considering a broad range of operational performance. This paper investigates whether financial and vendor ratings can be integrated into a supply chain credit rating model that jointly considers financial indicators of the supplier and its operational evaluation provided by buyers; the paper also investigates the benefits and the challenges of such a model for all the stakeholders involved (buyers, suppliers, financial institutions, and technology providers), adopting the lenses of the stakeholder theory. We adopted both multiple case studies and an iterative focus group, involving representatives from suppliers, buyers, financial institutions, and technology providers. The results confirm the potential value of such an integrated rating, mainly for strategic suppliers, showing the expected benefits for all stakeholders and highlighting the potential challenges to face.     

Market Risk Disclosures and Investment Efficiency: International Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council Financial Firms

This study examines the association between market risk disclosures (MRDs) and the investment efficiency of financial firms from six emerging markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Based on a sample of 553 firm‐year observations over the 2007–2011 period, we find that MRDs are significantly and negatively associated with both under‐investment and over‐investment and that this association is more pronounced for larger firms. We also find that the association between MRDs and under‐investment is moderated during periods of economic distress such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and that the association between MRDs and over‐investment is magnified during periods of reduced financial distress. Our results are consistent with the idea that MRDs reduce information asymmetry, which ultimately improves investment efficiency. We contribute to the literature in an emerging market context by providing empirical evidence on the association between MRDs and investment efficiency across six emerging GCC capital markets. This study also fills a gap in the literature by providing evidence on the factors affecting the investment efficiency of financial firms.     

事业单位财务管理刍议

通过对事业单位现行财务管理工作中存在的问题进行深入分析,找出制约事业单位财务管理工作发展的原因,并试图提出解决上述问题的途径。从体制和制度因素、内部控制、预算管理、投融资管理等方面分析了事业单位财务管理工作中存在的问题,指出目前的事业单位财务管理制度和事业单位会计制度已经不能适应事业单位改革和发展的需要,成为制约事业单位财务管理工作的瓶颈;事业单位内控制度的建设和执行亟待改进;事业单位预算管理弱化。最后根据研究中发现的问题,结合事业单位财务管理工作的现状,提出解决提高事业单位财务管理水平的政策建议。     

The financial investment decision of non-financial firms in China

This paper constructs a portfolio model to analyze the determinants of the financial investment decision of non-financial firms in China. Unlike the literature assuming that financial investments are riskless, our model allows risks in both fixed and financial investments. We show that this extension provides an analytically similar but economically different model from the literature. In particular, it is relative risk and risk-adjusted return gap, not pure risk and simple return gap that enter into firms’ financial investment decision model. Using firm-level panel data of 1902 firms listed in Chinese stock market over the period from 2006 to 2016 with semi-annual frequency, we find that the ratio of fixed investment risk over total risk dominates financial investment decisions of non-financial firms. However, rates of risk-adjusted return gap between financial and fixed investments play no role in Chinese firms’ financial investment decisions, which is in stark contrast to the results using a model assuming riskless financial investments. The baseline findings are robust to alternative measures of financialization and investment risk and different firm sizes, ownership structures and time periods.     

Local institutions,external finance and investment decisions of small businesses in Vietnam

This study investigates the impacts of local institutions, external finance, and their joint effects on firm investment in Vietnam. Investment decisions are classified into two categories: fixed asset investment and non-fixed asset investment. Analysing a set of 1.3 million firm-year observations of businesses in Vietnam (2006–2016), we find evidence that local institutions (both formal and informal) positively influence fixed asset investment but negatively affect non-fixed asset investment. Also, we find that informal loans are positively associated with both types of firm investment while bank loans are negatively associated with both types of firm investment. More importantly, we find that the quality of local institutions is able to moderate firms’ external financing behaviour, leading to increased investment values.     

Age-dependent investing: Optimal funding and investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans when members are rational life cycle financial planners

A defined contribution pension plan allows consumption to be redistributed from the plan member's working life to retirement in a manner that is consistent with the member's personal preferences. The plan's optimal funding and investment strategies therefore depend on the desired profile of consumption over the lifetime of the member. We investigate these strategies under the assumption that the member is a rational life cycle financial planner and has an Epstein–Zin utility function, which allows a separation between risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. We also take into account the member's human capital during the accumulation phase of the plan and we allow the annuitisation decision to be endogenously determined during the decumulation phase.We show that the optimal funding strategy involves a contribution rate that is not constant over the life of the plan but is age-dependent and reflects the trade-off between the desire for current versus future consumption, the desire for stable consumption over time, the member's attitude to risk, and changes in the level of human capital over the life cycle. We also show that the optimal investment strategy during the accumulation phase of the plan is ‘stochastic lifestyling’, with an initial high weight in equity-type investments and a gradual switch into bond-type investments as the retirement date approaches in a way that depends on the realised outcomes for the stochastic processes driving the state variables. The optimal investment strategy during the decumulation phase of the plan is to exchange the bonds held at retirement for life annuities and then to gradually sell the remaining equities and buy more annuities, i.e., a strategy known as ‘phased annuitisation’.