A primal Divisia technical change index based on the output distance function

We derive a primal Divisia technical change index based on the output distance function and further show the validity of this index from both economic and axiomatic points of view. In particular, we derive the primal Divisia technical change index by total differentiation of the output distance function with respect to a time trend. We then show that this index is dual to the Jorgenson and Griliches (1967) dual Divisia total factor productivity growth (TFPG) index when both the output and input markets are competitive; dual to the Diewert and Fox (2008) markup-adjusted revenue-share-based dual Divisia technical change index when market power is limited to output markets; dual to the Denny et al. (1981) and Fuss (1994) cost-elasticity-share-based dual Divisia TFPG index when market power is limited to output markets and constant returns to scale is present; and also dual to a markup-and-markdown-adjusted Divisia technical change index when market power is present in both output and input markets. Finally, we show that the primal Divisia technical change index satisfies the properties of identity, commensurability, monotonicity, and time reversal. It also satisfies the property of proportionality in the presence of path independence, which in turn requires separability between inputs and outputs and homogeneity of subaggregator functions.     

The biennial Malmquist productivity change index

In this paper we introduce a new Malmquist productivity index that has three attractive features: it avoids linear programming infeasibilities under variable returns to scale, it allows for technical regress, and it does not need to be recomputed when a new time period is added to the data set. The proposed index is compared to both the adjacent Malmquist index and the global Malmquist index in an empirical example, which highlights the drawbacks of the existing indexes compared to the proposed biennial Malmquist index.Our results show that 13% of the observations in the data set may have to be ignored due to infeasibilities when decomposing the adjacent Malmquist index. Using only this reduced data set does at times lead to quite different results than those generated by applying the proposed biennial Malmquist index to the entire data set. The empirical example also shows that productivity change estimated between two time periods using the global Malmquist index change substantially when a third time period is added to the data set, whereas the proposed biennial Malmquist index is immune to this problem.     

Decompositions of profitability change using cost functions

The paper presents a decomposition of a production unit’s cost ratio over two periods into explanatory factors. The explanatory factors are growth in the unit’s cost efficiency, output growth, changes in input prices and technical progress. In order to implement the decomposition, an estimate of the industry’s best practice cost function for the two periods under consideration is required. Profitability at a period of time is defined as the value of outputs produced by a production unit divided by the corresponding cost. Using the earlier work by Balk and O’Donnell, the paper provides a decomposition of profitability growth over two periods into various explanatory factors that are similar to the cost ratio decomposition except that change in outputs explanatory factor is replaced by two separate factors: an index of output price growth and a measure of returns to scale.     

Identifying bank outputs and inputs with a directional technology distance function

The bank efficiency literature lacks an agreed definition of bank outputs and inputs. This is problematic given the long-standing controversy concerning the status of deposits, but also because bank efficiency estimates are known to be affected by the inclusion of additional outputs such as non-traditional (fee-based) activities or risk measures. This paper proposes a data-driven identification of bank outputs and inputs using the directional technology distance function. While previous applications of this tool used symmetric expansion or contraction directions, we focus on a set of orthogonal directions, each corresponding to an assumption on the input/output status of an individual variable. These directions correspond to a set of different specifications, whose estimated coefficients can be used to determine the input or output status of all variables except the regressand. Our empirical analysis revealed a very consistent pattern across the alternative specifications estimated. There is strong evidence that customer deposits are an input, and that non-performing loans are an important undesirable output. Finally, the orthogonal expansions/contractions we consider avoid the simultaneity problem raised by the “convenient normalization” commonly used to impose linear homogeneity in stochastic frontier estimation.     

Introduction to internally consistent modeling,aggregation, inference,and policy

This special issue of the Journal of Econometrics honors William A. Barnett’s exceptional contributions to unifying economic theory with rigorous statistical inference to interpret economic data and inform public policy. It is devoted to papers that advance microeconometrics, macroeconometrics, and financial econometrics to build models to interpret evidence.     

Quasi-structural estimation of a model of childcare choices and child cognitive ability production

This article evaluates the effects of maternal vs. alternative care providers’ time inputs on children’s cognitive development using the sample of single mothers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. To deal with the selection problem created by unobserved heterogeneity of mothers and children, we develop a model of mother’s employment and childcare decisions. We then obtain approximate decision rules for employment and childcare use, and estimate these jointly with the child’s cognitive ability production function. To help identify our selection model, we take advantage of the plausibly exogenous variation in employment and childcare choices of single mothers generated by the variation in welfare rules across states and over time created by the 1996 welfare reform legislation and earlier State waivers.     

Geodesics on the equilibrium manifold

We show the existence of a Riemannian metric on the equilibrium manifold such that a minimal geodesic connecting two (sufficiently close) regular equilibria intersects the set of critical equilibria in a finite number of points. This metric represents a solution to the following problem: given two (sufficiently close) regular equilibria, find the shortest path connecting them which encounters the set of critical equilibria in a finite number of points. Furthermore, this metric can be constructed in such a way to agree, outside an arbitrary small neighborhood of the set of critical equilibria, to any given metric with economic meaning.     

A note on the structural stability of the equilibrium manifold

In a smooth pure exchange economy with fixed total resources we investigate whether the smooth selection property holds when endowments are redistributed across consumers through a continuous (non-local) redistribution policy. We show that if the policy is regular then there exists a unique continuous path of equilibrium prices which support it.     

Theorems on the core of an economy with infinitely many commodities and consumers

It is known that the classical theorems of Grodal [Grodal, B., 1972. A second remark on the core of an atomless economy. Econometrica 40, 581–583] and Schmeidler [Schmeidler, D., 1972. A remark on the core of an atomless economy. Econometrica 40, 579–580] on the veto power of small coalitions in finite dimensional, atomless economies can be extended (with some minor modifications) to include the case of countably many commodities. This paper presents a further extension of these results to include the case of uncountably many commodities. We also extend Vind’s [Vind, K., 1972. A third remark on the core of an atomless economy. Econometrica 40, 585–586] classical theorem on the veto power of big coalitions in finite dimensional, atomless economies to include the case of an arbitrary number of commodities. In another result, we show that in the coalitional economy defined by an atomless individualistic model, core–Walras equivalence holds even if the commodity space is non-separable. The above-mentioned results are also valid for a differential information economy with a finite state space. We also extend Kannai’s [Kannai, Y., 1970. Continuity properties of the core of a market. Econometrica 38, 791–815] theorem on the continuity of the core of a finite dimensional, large economy to include the case of an arbitrary number of commodities. All of our results are applications of a lemma, that we prove here, about the set of aggregate alternatives available to a coalition. Throughout the paper, the commodity space is assumed to be an ordered Banach space which has an interior point in its positive cone.     

Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields

When Japanese short-term bond yields were near their zero bound, yields on long-term bonds showed substantial fluctuation, and there was a strong positive relationship between the level of interest rates and yield volatilities/risk premiums. We explore whether several families of dynamic term structure models that enforce a zero lower bound on short rates imply conditional distributions of Japanese bond yields consistent with these patterns. Multi-factor “shadow-rate” and quadratic-Gaussian models, evaluated at their maximum likelihood estimates, capture many features of the data. Furthermore, model-implied risk premiums track realized excess returns during extended periods of near-zero short rates. In contrast, the conditional distributions implied by non-negative affine models do not match their sample counterparts, and standard Gaussian affine models generate implausibly large negative risk premiums.     

Identification and nonparametric estimation of a transformed additively separable model

Let r(x,z)$r(x,z)$ be a function that, along with its derivatives, can be consistently estimated nonparametrically. This paper discusses the identification and consistent estimation of the unknown functions H$H$, M$M$, G$G$ and F$F$, where r(x,z)=H[M(x,z)]$r(x,z)=H\left[M(x,z)\right]$, M(x,z)=G(x)+F(z)$M(x,z)=G\left(x\right)+F\left(z\right)$, and H$H$ is strictly monotonic. An estimation algorithm is proposed for each of the model’s unknown components when r(x,z)$r(x,z)$ represents a conditional mean function. The resulting estimators use marginal integration to separate the components G$G$ and F$F$. Our estimators are shown to have a limiting Normal distribution with a faster rate of convergence than unrestricted nonparametric alternatives. Their small sample performance is studied in a Monte Carlo experiment. We apply our results to estimate generalized homothetic production functions for four industries in the Chinese economy.     

基于USB设计的数据采集处理系统

一种基于USB传输的数据采集及处理系统的设计和实现,包括USB接口的工作原理,接口芯片的连接方法和单片机端的数据采集方法。同一般的数据采集系统相比,本系统数据传输快、误码率低,且该套方案实施容易,稳定可靠,为研究数据采集与数据处理提供了方便。     

Buyers' and sellers' cartels on markets with indivisible goods

This paper analyzes the formation of cartels of buyers and sellers in a simple model of trade inspired by Rubinstein and Wolinsky's (1990) bargaining model. When cartels are formed only on one side of the market, there is at most one stable cartel size. When cartels are formed sequentially on the two sides of the market, there is also at most one stable cartel configuration. Under bilateral collusion, buyers and sellers form cartels of equal sizes, and the cartels formed are smaller than under unilateral collusion. Both the buyers' and sellers' cartels choose to exclude only one trader from the market. This result suggests that there are limits to bilateral collusion, and that the threat of collusion on one side of the market does not lead to increased collusion on the other side.     

Chain indices of the cost-of-living and the path-dependence problem: An empirical solution

This paper proposes a new method for estimating true cost-of-living (Konüs) indices, for large numbers of commodities, using data only on prices, aggregate budget shares and aggregate expenditure. Conventional chain indices are path-dependent unless income elasticities are (implausibly) all equal to 1. The method allows this difficulty to be overcome. I show that to estimate a Konüs index, only income and not price elasticities are required. The method is applied to estimate a Konüs price index for 70 products covering nearly all the UK's Retail Prices Index over 1974–2004, using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. The choice of base year for utility has a significant effect on the index.     

Heuristic learning and the discovery of specialization and exchange

I develop and calibrate an agent-based model of boundedly rational, adaptive agents in a two-good production and exchange economy to replicate human-subject outcomes in the same eight-person experimental economy. To test agents’ ability to capture human behavior, I extend the model and use its output to make predictions about a second experimental environment in which the group of eight agents is slowly constructed by merging smaller groups. This environment improves human-subject performance in the specialization and exchange task, and commensurate improvement emerges for some parameterizations of the agent-based model. This iterative process yields incremental improvement of decision-level theories about economic discovery.     

Measuring productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency changes of CPA firms prior to, and following the Sarbanes–Oxley Act

This paper investigates productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change for a group of the 56 largest CPA firms in the US from the period 1996–1999 through the period 2003–2006, where the former preceded, and the latter followed, enactment of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to calculate Malmquist indices of three measures of interest: productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change. Results indicate that CPA firms, on average, experienced a productivity growth of approx. 17% from the pre- to post-SOX period. Consistent with the finding of Banker et al. [Banker RD, Chang H, Natarajan R. Productivity change, technical progress and relative efficiency change in the public accounting industry. Management Science 2005;51:291–304], this productivity gain can be attributed primarily to technical progress rather than a change in relative efficiency. In addition, results indicate that the “Big 4” firms underperformed their non-Big 4 counterparts in both productivity growth and technical progress.     

Measuring performance in the presence of stochastic demand for hospital services: an analysis of Belgian general care hospitals

Since demand for hospital services is subject to substantial variability, the relationship between uncertain demand, excess capacity, hospital costs and performance should be investigated thoroughly. In this paper a waiting time indicator to proxy hospital standby capacity is incorporated into a multi-product translog cost function for Belgian general care hospitals. The indicator is derived from queuing theory and improves on the conventionally used (inverse of the) occupancy rate. The multi-product stochastic frontier specification allows calculation of cost elasticities and marginal cost of seven hospital departments, as well as the degree of economies of scale and scope and enables identification of differences in efficiency.

The heterogeneous impact of taxation on economic development: New insights from a panel cointegration approach

In this paper, we study the role of taxation on long-run income performance. In the theoretical part of the study, we develop a stylized model based on Barro (1990), in which income taxation has two contradictory roles in the standard Solow (1956) setup: on the one hand, taxation appropriates resources that would otherwise be used for physical capital accumulation, and on the other, it is the source of government spending, which is used to support private production. In the empirical part of the study, the impact of consumption tax, personal income tax, corporate profit tax and property tax on income is estimated using the common correlated effects (CCE) panel cointegration approach, which allows for cross-sectional dependencies and provides both panel- and country-specific results. The panel findings for 30 OECD countries for the period of 1995–2016 indicate that only consumption tax has a statistically significant negative effect on long-run income. However, because the type and sign of the tax coefficients are heterogeneous for the country-specific results, we conclude that taxation has heterogeneous effects on income.     

Testing and detecting jumps based on a discretely observed process

We propose a new nonparametric test for detecting the presence of jumps in asset prices using discretely observed data. Compared with the test in Aït-Sahalia and Jacod (2009), our new test enjoys the same asymptotic properties but has smaller variance. These results are justified both theoretically and numerically. We also propose a new procedure to locate the jumps. The jump identification problem reduces to a multiple comparison problem. We employ the false discovery rate approach to control the probability of type I error. Numerical studies further demonstrate the power of our new method.