International Transmission of the People's Bank of China's Balance Sheet Expansion

The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) balance sheet expanded more dramatically than any of its major international counterparts during the past decade. The main contribution to this expansion was the rapid accumulation of the central bank's foreign assets, as a result of foreign exchange market intervention. In this paper, we examine the possible international transmission of this expansion by analyzing monthly data for China and 15 other countries over the period 2000–2012. Impulse response analysis based on vector autoregression modeling suggests that the PBoC's balance sheet expansion has greater impacts on developing than on developed countries. So far the influences appear to be dominated by “trade channels” instead of “financial channels,” possibly due to China's capital account controls. However, the impacts of the PBoC's balance sheet expansion on other countries' interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market prices could strengthen significantly in the coming years as China's economic scale grows and its capital account opens up.     

基于价格上限的输配电价格管制模型改进研究

由于输配电环节具有自然垄断特性,因此必须接受监管,但随着电力的市场化改革,旧有的监管机制存在一定缺陷,而基于绩效的价格管制模型又不能直接适用于我国的国情。本文提出了一种基于价格上限的价格管制改进模型,在一般价格上限模型中引入电能质量因子,从而很好地克服了该模型导致质量恶化的缺陷,提高了模型的适用性。文中还详细介绍了电能质量因子的确定问题,并对该质量因子进行了算例分析。     

差别电价传导机制及延迟性的系统动力学模拟

本文以高耗能企业中的电解铝企业为例,运用差别电价政策的系统动力学仿真模型,模拟差别电价对企业的单位产品成本、用电量等指标的影响以及其最终引起企业经营决策的变化。研究表明:差别电价对电解铝企业的"用电量增加"、"生产量"具有明显的降低效果,且随着时间的推移,此影响的效果越来越显现,并且差别电价对高耗能企业的生产决策影响具有延迟效应。     

货币政策传导机制与货币政策有效性:争论与启示

我国当前以信贷渠道为主的货币政策传导渠道将逐步被货币渠道所取代,货币政策传递的环境和条件不完善是制约我国货币政策传导效果的主要原因,我国货币政策传导效果存在明显的地区差异。     

企业家精神的构成要素与阶段发展模型——兼论浙江民营企业二次创业困境成因

从概念演进入手阐明了中西方文化下企业家精神的不同构成要素,在参考相关文献的基础上提出了企业家精神的阶段发展模型,并以该模型为理论基础分析了浙江民营企业二次创业困境的成因及其对策。     

影子银行、信用创造与货币政策传导机制

中国的影子银行规模已经达到GDP的一半,因此研究与之相关的问题有重要的现实意义。影子银行具有特殊的信用创造功能,能影响中国货币政策的有效性。选取2008～2013年的月度数据,通过建立VAR模型、Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法,实证研究影子银行在计量角度上对货币政策各层次的影响效果。结果显示：影子银行规模与通货膨胀率、广义货币供应量存在长期稳定的关系;影子银行规模对物价有较强烈冲击,同时对货币供应量有时滞性的长期影响,在一定时间内对经济增长有负面影响,这说明需要出台相应的措施加强对影子银行的监管。     

Information Transmission Through Rumors in Stock Markets: A New Evidence

The authors provide new evidence of the influence of false rumors based on Taiwan's stock market. The results indicate significant patterns of abnormal returns and trading volumes surrounding the event day and that the rumors seem to be disseminated in the stock market before appearing in newspapers. The results also indicate asymmetry: Investors hearing a positive rumor about a stock may tend to buy the stock, prompting a price run-up until the rumor dies away, while negative rumors usually have greater and longer negative impacts on stock returns than positive rumors do. The presence of a daily price limit is negatively correlated to the size of abnormal returns and abnormal trading volumes on the event day, and the abnormal trading volumes are more sensitive to the price limit surrounding the event day. Finally, firm managers might receive rumor information earlier and then conduct stock trading before the rumor's announcement.     

中国金融发展对经济增长内在传导渠道研究——基于内生增长理论的实证比较

文章基于内生增长理论,结合中国经济增长的典型事例,确定了经济增长的影响因子,并将其与金融发展的指标变量建立回归模型组,探讨了金融发展对经济增长的内在传导机制。研究结果表明,资本存量、人力资本以及制度因素是中国金融发展与经济增长之间三条显著的传导渠道,资本积累是金融发展对中国经济增长最主要的传导渠道;技术进步并不是显著的传导渠道;同为金融发展作用于经济增长的传导主体,金融中介的作用明显要大于金融市场。     

基于CPI“篮子商品”的价格传导机制研究——对非食品渠道和食品渠道的考察

文章对CPI"篮子商品"中非食品类和食品类商品的价格传导机制进行考察,采用2005-2010年月度价格指数数据实证分析了两个产业链渠道的上中下游价格传导效应。研究结果显示,两个渠道内的价格指数之间都存在稳定的长期均衡关系,但短期内食品渠道内的价格传导比非食品渠道顺畅,而非食品渠道内存在显著的价格倒逼机制。当两个产业链上的价格各自受到外部冲击时,在食品渠道中能显著传递至下游的CPI,但在非食品渠道中传递至CPI的效应并不明显。     

城市扩张情景模拟下绿地生态网络 构建与优化研究——以南京市部分区域 为例

：绿地生态网络对维护城市生态结构稳定有极其重要 的作用,其网络结构与城市发展、扩张及结构演化在时空层面 有动态的耦合关系。现阶段绿地生态网络构建多处于一种静态 的构建与优化思路中,忽视了城市化过程中自然与城市间的动 态变化。从风景园林学视角出发,以南京市部分区域为例,通 过多期遥感数据,基于CA-Markov模型模拟城市未来发展情 景,并在过去、现在和未来各时期用地分类基础上,对城市动 态扩张演变下的绿地空间与其所形成的生态网络进行研究,以 期构建适用现在、面向未来的绿地生态网络,将丰富城市绿地 生态网络研究新思路,并为中国风景园林建设和绿地系统规划 提供技术支撑。     

On selecting a technology evolution path for broadband access networks

The rapid growth in the number of Internet users has accelerated the use of high-speed Internet access services, including broadband multimedia services. In the delivery of broadband multimedia services to end-users, it is necessary to build a high-speed backbone and access network. To construct a broadband access network, several alternative technologies including xDSL, CATV, and FTTx have been suggested and implemented in telecommunication networks. However, even if a technology is proven to be optimal for the current environment, it can be deteriorated by the elapse of time or the advent of new challenging technologies in the future. In this article, we concentrate on the selection of an evolution path for broadband access networks. We developed an optimization model for selecting the best technology and evolution path with the minimum total cost. The problem can be formulated as a mixed integer programming model. With a scenario for demands and cost factors, we find the optimal evolution path by solving our model with the CPLEX program and illustrate some sample paths for the broadband access network evolution plan. Once the cost and the demand are defined in detail to reflect the real-world case, our model can be useful to generate a practical technology evolution plan for broadband access networks in real-world applications.     

A strategic performance measurement system for firms across supply and demand chains on the analogy of ecological succession

To answer the call for a new business that integrates economic, biological and human systems, this paper develops a strategic performance measurement system (SPMS) for firms across supply and demand chains (SDC) by analogy with ecological succession. Based on the explanation that SDC can be viewed as community, it develops SDC (monetary value) structure by analogy with community (trophic) structure. As energy flow in ecology follows the first and second laws of thermodynamics, monetary value flow in business follows two laws that are similar to the laws of thermodynamics. Based on these laws, as well as throughput accounting and traditional cost accounting, it puts forward a general monetary value flow model in SDC (i.e. in demand chain and in supply chain respectively). Based on the value flow model in SDC, it conceives an SDC evolution model with a case study on the maturity of Toyota Motor Corporation. Based on these two models, it develops an SPMS for firms across SDC with procedural and structural frameworks. The discussion about monetary value flows in business from nature to the final consumers or converse gives a chance to coordinate business with nature. The SPMS that rationally integrates effective evaluation of tiers in SDC and practical product development plans in firm will help firms create a sustainable commerce (e.g. product–service system).