Forecasting of regional economic development and budget based on the example of Irkutsk oblast

This article discusses the process of forecasting the socioeconomic development at the regional level during budget estimates. The main causes of the deviation of forecast targets from the actual data have been revealed. The influence of inaccuracies during forecasting on the quality of the use of regional budgets has been estimated.     

Policing the provinces: A budgetary analysis

This article examines the impact of the Financial and Fiscal Commission's (FFC) new provincial financing dispensation on the allocation of police resources and on the deliv ery of police services at provincial level. Trends in the police budget since the late 1989s are examined, and the existing provincial allocation of police resources is analysed, as well as the relationship between crime rates, socio‐economic variables and the provincial allocation of police resources. A new framework for the provincial allocation of police resources is subsequently proposed. This framework is based on the FFC's proposed provincial grants formula and the establishment of a Crime Equalisation Fund (CEF) which allocates additional police resources based on each province's per capita crime rates and specific priority crimes. The article argues that the phased reallocation of po lice resources to provinces via this new framework will contribute to a more equitable and effective utilisation of existing police resources, which in turn should have a positive impact on the delivery of police services and the levels of crime. It also suggests that the further devolution of the police budget to provinces is likely to be inhibited by the ANC's commitment to retaining a national, centralised police service. Thus, any further devolu tion of budgetary powers with respect to policing will be determined by the outcome of centre‐province political dynamics rather than by the need to combat crime more effec tively at provincial levels.     

Russia’s fuel and energy complex: Development prospects for the period to 2030

The article presents a long-term forecast for the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) for the period to 2030. Projections were made for two scenarios of Russia’s socioeconomic development, which were developed at the IEF in 2005–2006. FEC forecasts were built for three macroregions of Russia: the European part, the Urals and West Siberia, and East Siberia and the Far East. Key outcomes of the scenario forecasts correspond to the base case, which provides background concepts of the long-term development of the FEC. The regional aspect is analyzed in depth, which made it possible to build prognostic energy balances for three macroregions that take account of the economics of production, transportation, distribution, and utilization of energy resources.     

On the complex estimate of the quality level of budgetary services

This paper analyzes the modern methodical base for estimating the quality of budgetary services. The classification of the existing methods based on the resource-process-resultant concept of quality is given. Methods are stated for estimating the quality of budgetary services based on applying the expert, formal, and combinational approaches. The methods were tested using the example of higher education services in Bashkortostan.     

Assessment of the effect produced by the fuel and energy complex on the environment and health

Power engineering in a country cannot be developed without taking into account both the environmental situation already existing in the region and the new requirements for its quality according to the recommendations of the EU, WHO, and other world organizations. Fuel production and power plants are often situated in communities with a raised level of pollution or even in those which have already been recognized as zones of environmental emergency. The fuel and energy complex (FEC) is one of the basic sources of pollution in the atmosphere. The management decisions on FEC expansion should be accompanied, in a mandatory order, by estimation of the risk to health and by measures for its reduction to a tolerable level. Ecologically unprofessional decisions on construction and/or expansion of FEC facilities may lead to further deterioration of living and health conditions.     

The infrastructural role of the Ust’-Srednekanskaya hydroelectric station in the Magadan oblast economy: An appraisal

Comparative analysis of the approaches to efficiency assessment of completing objects under construction in electrical power engineering is performed using the construction of the Ust’-Srednekanskaya hydroelectric station (HPS) on the river Kolyma in Magadan oblast as an example.     

The effect of WTO norms on the agricultural industrial complex in advancement to the new technological system: The case of Kurgan oblast

The paper considers competition advantages and search for new theoretical-methodological approaches to the most efficient way to solve the problem of development of the agricultural-industrial complex (AIC) of Russia and its regions in the context of its accession to the WTO. It shows the basic characteristics of the technological systems in the AIC and the technological level of the AIC on the case of Kurgan oblast and reveals the WTO norms able to have a negative effect on the formation of the 6^th technological system in AIC of Russia.     

The Vologda oblast industrial sector: Growth problems and trends

This paper analyzes the results of annual interviews among factory managers in Vologda oblast and experts concerning problems of development of the regional economy.     

Scenario simulation of the demographic dynamics: The case of Volgograd oblast

This paper presents the results of scenario calculations of the demographic dynamics in Volgograd oblast up to 2050. The calculations were made by simulating the dependence of the gender and age structure of the population on the birth and death rates and the migration increment. The dynamics of the shares of the productive-age population, children, and pensioners, as well as of the coefficients of the dependency ratio according to the chosen scenario, are presented.     

System-dynamic model of regional economy: The case of Rostov oblast

This article presents a method of simulation modeling that is broadly used in regional process studies. Based on this model, we have developed a system of supporting decision-making intended for regional development. Potential development scenarios for the Rostov oblast have been elaborated using statistical data about the region.     

Public budgetary rules and GDP growth: An empirical study on OECD and twelve european countries

We study the long-term effects of budgetary rules on GDP growth rate and analyse the determinants of the short-term GDP growth dynamics. For both a sample of 19 OECD and a subsample of 12 European countries, we show that, in the long run, improvements in the cyclically adjusted budget balance, as well as increases in the tax burden, have negative effects on GDP growth. The highest effect of fiscal policy on GDP growth would be obtained if the structural deficits were used to increase the market size by reducing the tax burden. In line with Barro (1990), a deficit-financed reduction of tax burden has a stronger effect for European than for OECD countries, because in Europe the government size with respect to market size is too large. Therefore, if GDP growth is a dominant policy objective, in Europe specific actions should redress the 2012 Treaty toward a reduction of the tax burden.     

Value added analysis and trend forecasting in the manufacturing industry in Kaliningrad oblast

The article considers the problems of estimating the regional gross value added. A structural and dynamic analysis of value-added trends in the main manufacturing activities has been carried out and their role in the economy of Kaliningrad oblast has been established. New approaches to the industrial policy in the region have been defined based on priority manufacturing activities and mechanisms of an increase in value added.     

Indicators of the self-sufficiency of Bryansk oblast with dairy products: Evaluation tools, analysis, and forecast

Factors characterizing the self-sufficiency of a region with dairy products are considered in the paper, and, based on the offered factors, estimates of the product sufficiency across Bryansk oblast are given. A forecast estimate is provided, including the regional features of Bryansk oblast, milk production, and main types of dairy products.     

Improvement of governance at regional level: The case of Perm oblast

This paper examines issues associated with improving the effectiveness of regional-level government using the concept of result-oriented management. Key elements of the concept are the statement of global government objectives at the Federal member level, the building of a suitable governance system with precise centers of responsibility and separation of powers, as well as result-based procedure of resource allocation. Some evidence from the practical application of this instrument in Perm oblast is supplied.     

The minerals‐energy complex and South African industrialisation

In their recent book Fine & Rustomjee argue that the minerals‐energy complex (MEC) as a system of accumulation had a determining and retarding effect on South African industrialisation. The evidence on the share of the MEC sectors in the GDP does not support the contention that the MEC as a system of accumulation has effectively increased the economy's dependence on these sectors. Statistical evidence contradicts Fine & Rustomjee s view that South Africa's import‐substituting industrialisation did not move from consumption goods to intermediate and then to capital goods, but in the opposite direction. There is no historical evidence to support the contention that the MEC as a system of accumulation prevented diversification of manufacturing industry and thus retarded industrialisation. Manufacturing industry did diversify both between the wars and in the postwar period. It is suggested that state‐promoted developments in MEC manufacturing sectors represented important and necessary steps towards full‐scale industrialisation, which began in South Africa between the wars.     

Modern problems and development prospects of the Russian budgetary system

The article describes problems of modern budgetary system of Russia. If these problems have been solved, economic growth could be restored. Suggested measures of budgetary policy have been divided into priority measures, which are affected in the next one or two years, as well as medium-term measures     

The evaluation of the long-term economic development of the Irkutsk region in the system of the all-Russian forecasting

The long-term forecasting of the development of the Irkutsk region by economic sectors is considered. The evaluations of the structural changes and the interregional relationships by the variants of the potential trends of development of the economy of Siberia and Russia in a whole are presented. The forecast is made by the production output data, which are the basis of the target growth of the final consumption.     

The ten commandments of renewable energy analysis

This paper presents a series of 10 analytical ‘Commandments’ intended to guide the global community of planners and energy professionals in their search for new sources of renewable energy, especially for the poor. Although technically speaking, there are numerous new energy systems which could be applied to the daily tasks of the poor, the author's emphasis is on finding new systems which must fit socially and economically as well as technically if they are to do more good than harm. Thus, the search for new systems of renewable energy must be ‘reality-led’ rather than ‘technology-driven’.