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Aloys Prinz 《Applied economics letters》2017,24(6):433-437
In this article, a measure for the Relative Memorability of Nobel Prize winners is proposed, based on an exponential forgetting curve. The intention is to provide a measure that captures the fading nature of memories with respect to individual Nobel Prize winners in the cultural collective memory. For fame and achievement of Nobel Prize laureates, measurement methods are already developed. However, from a cultural viewpoint, the question is how well these persons are remembered. Applying the concept of memorability, as defined in this article, to Nobel laureates in Economics, Milton Friedman, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz turn out to be the top-three economists in the collective memory. Moreover, the ranking of economists according the collective memory, their fame and their achievement produce quite different results. 相似文献
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经济学研究与数学方法--从诺贝尔奖看数学在经济研究中的地位和作用 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
本文从32届诺贝尔经济学奖获奖成果和事实出发,分析了数学在经济学研究中的地位和作用,指出了经济理论与经济现象的一致性是推动经济学发展的根本动力,也是数学发展的源泉。经济理论的深化要经济学家与数学家的共同合作。 相似文献
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克鲁格曼、诺贝尔经济学奖与经济地理学发展 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章对克鲁格曼的经济地理学思想从贸易理论与区位理论相融合,从规模收益递增、要素流动和运输成本揭示空间集聚,从历史、预期和路径依赖揭示区域发展路径,以量化模拟研究区际关系等四方面进行了分析.从研究视角、研究范式和研究方法三方面分析了克鲁格曼创新研究对经济地理学的启迪.从学科社会地位、研究范式和发展方向三方面分析了克鲁格曼获得诺贝尔经济学奖对经济地理学的影响.在此基础上,对中国经济地理学发展提出了一些思考. 相似文献
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彼得.戴蒙德、戴尔.莫滕森和克里斯托弗.皮萨里德斯三人因在劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论及其应用的突出贡献,共同获得2010年诺贝尔经济学奖。其中,戴蒙德通过提出著名的戴蒙德悖论,开创了劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论框架;在此基础上,莫滕森认为,建立工资公告等匹配机制有助于劳动力市场博弈实现均衡,从而拓展了摩擦性失业相关理论研究;而皮萨里德斯则通过推动匹配函数与工资议价等的确立,进一步完成了劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论的系统化过程。借鉴该理论,中国劳动力市场应做出提高信息传播效率、提高农村的信息水平、政府制定针对性相关政策等改进。 相似文献
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We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly—but not strongly—efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by Hansen et al. (2004), we find that, besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality among forecasters exist. Nevertheless, on the basis of a direction-of-change analysis we argue that it is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecasters.
相似文献
Ulrich Fritsche (Corresponding author)Email: |
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We analyze economists’ forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates from the Wall Street Journal. We find that a majority of economists produced unbiased forecasts but that none predicted directions of changes more accurately than chance. Most economists’ forecast accuracy is statistically indistinguishable from a random walk model in forecasting the Treasury bill rate, but many are significantly worse in forecasting the Treasury bond rate and the exchange rate. We also find systematic forecast heterogeneity, support for strategic models predicting the industry employing the economist matters, and evidence that economists deviate less from the consensus as they age. 相似文献
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Although there have been many evaluations of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis permits us to determine if there was an inefficient use of information in the sense that the forecast revision has predictive power for the forecast error. Research on forecast smoothing suggests that we might find a positive relationship between the forecast error and the forecast revision. Although we do find for some variables and horizons the Fed’s forecast errors are predictable from its forecast revisions, there is no evidence of forecast smoothing. Instead the revisions sometimes have a negative relationship with the forecast error, suggesting in these cases that the Fed may be over-responsive to new information. 相似文献
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The paper by Fildes and Stekler provides an overview of empirical results in macroeconomic forecasting. They do not address three key issues: (1) the importance of data revisions and the use of real-time data; (2) the statistical significance of differences between forecasts; and (3) the role of macroeconomic theory in formulating and evaluating macroeconomic forecasts. 相似文献
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The fact that the predictive performance of models used in forecasting stock returns, exchange rates, and macroeconomic variables is not stable and varies over time has been widely documented in the forecasting literature. Under these circumstances excessive reliance on forecast evaluation metrics that ignores this instability in forecasting accuracy, like squared errors averaged over the whole forecast evaluation sample, masks important information regarding the temporal evolution of relative forecasting performance of competing models. In this paper we suggest an approach based on the combination of the Cumulated Sum of Squared Forecast Error Differential (CSSFED) of Welch and Goyal (2008) and the Bayesian change point analysis of Barry and Hartigan (1993) that tracks the contribution of forecast errors to the aggregate measures of forecast accuracy observation by observation. In doing so, it allows one to track the evolution of the relative forecasting performance over time. We illustrate the suggested approach by using forecasts of the GDP growth rate in Switzerland. 相似文献
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如何准确评估保险公司财务并对财务恶化进行正确的预警.一直是国内外学界、业界及监管机构关注的热点问题之一。本文采用我国产险公司2002~2005年数据,通过Logistic模型找出对产险公司财务状况具有显着影响的各种因素.并利用事前概率与预测概率辨别出财务状况异常的产险公司,在错误成本允许的条件下,寻求最佳的监管资源配置。实证结果表明.在不同的监管标准下,衡量产险公司财务影响因素的显著程度有所差异。模型受检值以事前概率为标准较预测概率为好.且受检值的大小将会影响产险公司财务状况预测的结果。 相似文献
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基于Logistic回归模型,选取中国制造业上市公司作为样本对财务危机预测进行研究。从企业的盈利能力、营运能力、偿债能力、成长能力、现金流量等方面出发,选取了10个财务预警指标,经过回归分析得出,总资产收益率、总资产周转率、资产负债率、主营业务增长率、经营活动现金净流量对负债的比率五项财务指标对上市公司发生财务危机有重要影响。从而提出要从提高盈利能力、提升营运能力、增强偿债能力、提高成长能力、保障现金流的充足几方面来应对财务危机。 相似文献
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Luiz C.M. Miranda Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(5):823-830
In real life growth processes there is always an intrinsic finite response time. This means that these systems do not respond instantaneously so that the logistic modeling of such processes should be formally described by a delayed logistic equation. This poses enormous difficulties to their time evolution modeling as there are no analytical solutions to the delayed logistic equation. In this paper we show that by performing a conventional Verhulst logistic modeling of the corresponding time series data, associated with a fine-coarse analysis of the resulting residuals, we can disclose the underlying periodicities due to the finite time response effects. 相似文献
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There have been a number of forecasting models based on various forms of the logistic growth curve. This paper investigates the effectiveness of two forms of Harvey models and a Logistic model for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The three growth curve models are applied to the Domestic and Non-Domestic sectors and Total electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are compared using their goodness of fit to historical data and forecasting accuracy over a period of 19 years. The comparison revealed that the Harvey model is a very appropriate candidate for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The developed models are also compared with some available national forecasts. 相似文献
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朱洪革 《生态经济(学术版)》2009,(1):121-125
文章利用黑龙江省哈尔滨市289个城市居民样本数据,分别建立居民购买对环境和自身都有利的生态环保型商品和对环境有利而对自身无影响的生态环保型商品的Logistic模型,分析了影响城市居民生态消费行为的主要因素。研究结果表明,居民对生态消费的认知水平、对环保标识的信任水平、政策宣传状况、商品质量的可靠程度对居民购买两类生态环保型商品都有显著影响,而且为正方向影响。性别和文化程度分别是居民购买第二类生态环保型商品和第一类生态环保型商品的比较显著的人口统计学影响因素。 相似文献
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科技人才的大量流失严重制约了新疆地区的经济社会发展.本文利用新疆科技工作者抽样调查数据,采用二元Logistic模型及对数线性模型对科技工作者流失意愿的影响因素及交互作用进行实证分析.研究结果显示,学历、年龄、职称、政治面貌、生态环境、社会治安、检索科技文献资料难易程度、进修培训工作满意度和科研经费管理制度的满意度对科技人才流失均有显著影响. 相似文献