Trend movements and inverted Kondratieff waves in the Dutch economy, 1800–1913

This paper presents the results of an effort to dissect 19th century economic growth in the Netherlands into two principal long run components: the domain of the trend and the domain of long waves. Spectral and cross-spectral analysis is used to identify Kondratieffs in volume series. It appears that the long term pattern of development is composed of an inverse S-shaped trend and a Kondratieff wave that is superimposed upon it. Contrary to the British case, long waves in Dutch volume series appear to run contrary to the corresponding long waves in price series. This finding is at variance with the received view on long waves. This typical result is explained by so-called ‘Keynes effect’ in combination with the characteristics of a small open economy that has to dance to the tune of the dominant British economy.     

The political transfer problem: How cross-border financial windfalls affect democracy and civil war

Following a rise in the price of oil in the 1970s, a number of developing countries received a significant boost in foreign transfers as oil producers could not absorb all of their new rents domestically. When those transfers ended, some recipients of these transfers eventually democratized as part of the ”Third Wave” while others languished as violent autocracies. This raises a puzzle: how can declines in external transfers foster democratization in some cases, but heighten political violence in others? We develop a formal model to reconcile this tension and demonstrate that autocratic incumbents can become more repressive with higher levels of transfers and either experience civil conflict or democratize at lower levels of transfers. We characterize these dynamics as a ”political transfer problem” and then use case studies and econometric evidence to argue that the largest windfall of the 20th century, the period from 1973–85 during which oil prices were at all-time highs, and its aftermath, produced political dynamics consistent with our model.     

The struggle for space: Past and future of the space race

This article is geared toward shedding some more light on what may be the next space race and its contours.Space flight is undoubtedly a human achievement of the second half of the 20th century, and probably the most audacious one of the past century. The space race started suddenly in the 1950s and has grown explosively during the following two decades, but decreased steadily after the 1970s. After the 1990s, however, we have seen a shy rebirth of space-related activities, when many other actors (states) entered the stage, adding up to the agonizing role of the two-actor piece that we have witnessed during the so-called Cold War.The opening years of the 21st century provided a more complex narrative for space exploration. At the start of the new millennium a new technosphere [1] emerged, dominated by what is used to be called as the Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), with the Internet playing the leading role among the bandwagon of technological novelties that appeared during the twilight of space activities. In despite of the fact that artificial satellites represent the very backbone of the global communications system, space activities seem to play a secondary role amidst the apparently accelerated rate of change concerning the technological systems of the present technosphere. But, as it is demonstrated in this paper, things are changing, and very probably a renewed space race will unfold in the coming decades.A question may be placed: what happened? Why the Earth stood still with regard to the race toward the cosmos? Answer: futurists, even prestigious ones like Herman Kahn and Arthur Clarke, did not consider the existence of socioeconomic long waves (Kondratieff waves, or K-waves for short) with their two decades long economic downturn, which has contributed to the deceleration of space-related activities.Analyzing the worldwide evolving scenario of space-related activities during the last eighty years under the framework of the succeeding K-waves and applying some technological forecasting tools, namely the logistic analysis, technological surveillance and intensive data mining, scrutinizing more than 7500 events occurred in the period 1930–2010 related with space activities, it is demonstrated that the space race like the one that we have witnessed until now is a natural growth process that has saturated at the dawn of this century. The same analysis demonstrates that a new growth process in this field might be nowadays under way with contours very different from that imagined by futurists and science fiction writers sixty years ago. Also the main trends in the usage of launching vehicles and satellites are framed and discussed in this paper.     

当前中国农村金融组织体系改革的思路

本文从历史的角度分析了20世纪90年代以来中国农村金融组织体系的改革历程,发现尽管改革的目标是要形成多元化的农村金融组织体系,但是改革过程中却呈现出曲折的两阶段性：到20世纪末农村信用社垄断了农村金融市场;进入21世纪以来,农村信用社的垄断地位逐渐被打破,改革又开始向多元化金融组织体系目标回归。     

Differences in body mass indices for males imprisoned in the 19th century American South

A limited but increasing amount of research is being done on historical body mass index values. This paper uses 19th century Tennessee State Penitentiary records to demonstrate that Southern BMI values were in the normal range. There is little evidence of a Southern mulatto BMI advantage. Farmer BMIs were consistently heavier than non-farmers. Southern black BMIs remained constant throughout the late 19th and early 20th centuries; however, white BMIs declined during the early 20th century.     

Egypt's Growth Performance Under Economic Liberalism: A Reassessment With New GDP Estimates, 1886–1945

The stagnation of Egyptian living standards in the first half of the 20th century has been widely presumed in economic history. However, this conventional wisdom is partially based on a fragmented body of evidence on aggregate output. In particular, no estimates of national income exist for any extended period prior to World War II. Using a money–based cointegration approach and a new measure of broad money, we exploit Egypt's intimate economic links with the U.K. to provide the first continuous estimates of GDP for the period 1886–1945. Our estimates are consistent with trends in agriculture and other stylized facts about the Egyptian economy in the late 19th and early 20th century. The empirical results provide qualified support to the conventional wisdom about Egypt's growth performance in addition to offering a detailed characterization of output cycles.     

Technological innovation and the long wave theory revisited

The pattern of basic innovation clustering associated with Kondratieff long wave downswings raises questions when we consider the 4th downswing. There is increasing concern expressed that we may be facing “innovation starvation” or “innovation stagnation”. Among the questions: Is the internet a cluster of one? Or should the smartphone, ipad, Facebook, icloud, etc. be considered basic rather than improvement innovations as well because of their huge societal impact? Is the long wave pattern exhibited for the past two hundred years continuing or is it breaking down?     

Testing for trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods

This paper joins the statistical debate on the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods by contributing to the methodological discussion and presenting new evidence using data series covering almost the whole of the 20th century. Using statistical tests that take into account breaks in the series, it is found that over the 20th century the relative prices of primary commodities dropped to nearly one-third of their level at the beginning of the century in two “installments”, when random shocks led to structural breaks, and not in a gradual way as implied by either a deterministic or stochastic trend. Possible reasons for the structural breaks and their policy implications are discussed.     

The growth dynamics of the Internet and the long wave theory

The phenomenal growth of Internet users is slowing down and we expect to approach a world limit in the next decade of about 14% of the world population. On the basis of a historical analysis this basic innovation is placed in the context of the Kondratieff cycles (K-waves) and the associated Generational-Learning model. A quantitative analysis using logistic growth curves allows us to evaluate its growth dynamics and to assert that the Internet is coming to the end of the 4th K-wave downswing or innovation structural phase and will then embark on the 5th K-wave upswing or consolidation structural phase. The debate about the future of the K-wave pattern is considered, specifically the factors bearing on the continuation or alteration of the pattern and the trajectory.     

预防性技术采用元分析及其对创新鸿沟跨越的启示——以可穿戴医疗健康设备为例

区别于增值性创新,预防性创新为采用者带来的收益难以直接观察,创新决策过程较少得到学者关注。为探索预防性创新接受行为的关键决定因素及其对在创新扩散过程中影响大小的变化,本元分析以可穿戴医疗健康设备为例,基于技术接受模型及其扩展模型、隐私计算模型、创新扩散理论与健康信念模型构建了概念模型并收集了28项研究对假设进行检验。研究结果表明:①本元分析中选取的变量可有效预测用户预防性创新的采用;②随着投稿年份增加,态度、感知有用性、感知易用性、绩效期待、努力期待、社会影响、便利条件、娱乐动机、信任、兼容性、顾客创新对使用意愿,健康信念对感知有用性之间的显著关系逐渐增强。此外,感知益处、感知隐私风险也显著影响使用意愿;③随着创新产品的扩散,用户对产品提出更高要求。     

15世纪以来人文社会科学强国的空间分布

用统计方法分析人文强国空间转移轨迹,得出15世纪至20世纪60年代近代人文社会科学强国在英国、意大利、法国、德国、美国之间发生的10余次转移。基于此,进一步研究人文强国的强盛期、强国竞争力、转移模式等人文强国特征;最后,探讨了人文强国绝对人文社会科学家人数平均值的指数增长情况。     

论第一生产力和第三产业的社会历史作用

19世纪时,资本和劳力在经济增长中占首位,到了20世纪50年代以后,科技的作用占了首位。邓小平提出的“科学技术是第一生产力”,正是发展了马克思主义生产力理论。同时,以往第一、第二产业占绝大比重,到本世纪50年代以后,第三产业占的比重最大。科技生产力与第三产业成为衡量社会经济发展水平的标尺。     

SPECIALIZATION AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN THE 20TH CENTURY*

The skill premium fell substantially in the first part of the 20th century and then rose at the end of the century. I argue that these changes are connected to the organization of production. When production is organized into large plants, jobs become routinized, favoring less‐skilled workers. A model is introduced that parameterizes capital's ability to do many tasks, that is, capital's flexibility. When calibrated to data on the distribution of plant sizes, the model can account for between half and two‐thirds of the movement in the skill premium over the century.     

中国企业家对社会责任认知的变迁——1870年以来的考察

近年来,企业社会责任成了社会各界热议的话题。企业承担社会责任的范围和尺度既受外部环境、企业战略的影响,更主要的还是受企业家对社会责任认知程度的制约。本文试图通过对中国近代企业家的社会责任观及其实践的梳理,分析中国企业社会责任特有的内涵,并通过近代、当代企业家的对比,找到中国企业家对社会责任认知的变迁轨迹和中国企业家在承担社会责任时所具有的精神气质及普世价值。     

Past Futures: On the Conceptual History of Eugenics—a Social Technology of the Past

Based on an introduction to the conceptual history of Reinhart Koselleck, this paper traces the historical development of 'eugenics' as a concept. This concept has been immensely influential in shaping the debate on the regulation of human genetic and reproductive technologies. At the beginning of the 20th century eugenics was cast as a social technology associated with strong, almost utopian technological expectations for the future. By the end of the century it was by contrast seen as a dangerous threat, a potential repetition of the past strongly connected to notions of compulsion, ethnic cleansing and crime. In between these two points lies a historical development, traced here through the development of the concept of eugenics as rendered in Scandinavian encyclopaedias throughout the 20th century. In this process a larger and more complex semantic framework emerges illustrating the shifting relationship between experience and expectations.     

港英政府应对公共危机管理的现代化开端——以19世纪末20世纪初香港鼠疫为研究对象

公共危机是现代化转型过程中的诸多因素引发的重大危机，对公众利益产生很大的负面影响，公共危机管理是现代政府的重要职能。19世纪末20世纪初香港鼠疫频发，港英政府设立专门的危机管理机构，采取积极有效的措施进行应对，开香港公共危机现代化管理之先河。     

The Rise of the Global Corporation and the Polarization of the Managerial Class in the US

This article seeks to understand the sharp divergence in the earnings of top managerial executives in the US since the 1980s, within the historical context of the evolution and transformation of the corporate landscape through the 20th century. In particular, as US multinational corporations expanded their reach to the global market at the end of the 20th century and offshoring increased, globally dispersed US multinational corporations began to draw a rising share of their surpluses from their overseas affiliates. The article argues that this development is key to understanding the growing disparity between the earnings of the executives at the top of the managerial hierarchy and those lower down. The disproportionate rise of top managers’ wage income reflects their claim to a larger share of globally produced surplus. Discussions of the rising earnings of the managerial elite in the US need to take this historical process into account.     

主动迎接世界科技进步的挑战

人类在２０世纪实现了意义重大的制度创新,在发展生产力上取得了重大成就。特别是世纪末叶出现了影响深远的经济组织形式的变革和升级,即由工业经济开矿向知识经济形态的演变,从而使智力成为推动当代技术和经济进步的第一生产要素,面对世界政治、经济发展中的新情况,中国要迎接２１世纪的挑战,必须加快制度创新,促进科技进步。     

PUBLIC ENTERPRISE IN THE MODERN WESTERN WORLD: AN HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT: The aim of this article is to explain the pattern of public enterprise in Western Europe, Japan and the USA in the late 20th century, just before the onset of privatization. This requires an examination of the origins which date from the early 19th century. A common misconception is that public enterprise was a device for overcoming problems of natural monopoly and/or a socialist instrument for mitigating worker exploitation. It is argued that the former was mainly dealt with by arms’ length regulation and that socialist forces were limited. Public enterprise was common in grid networks everywhere and, in manufacturing, more common in Germany, Spain, Italy than elsewhere. Why also were the USA and UK (up to 1939) different and what does the privatization experience tell us about public enterprise? The answer is that public enterprise was often an instrument for promoting social and political unification, securing national defence and related strategic considerations, increasingly in the 20th century for promoting economic growth, with regulatory failures and socialist pressures playing a more subsidiary and/or occasional role.     

新世纪初中国生态旅游面临的挑战

作为一种产生于上世纪末的新的旅游形式，生态旅游不仅是一种新的旅游产品和旅游形式，它更是一种旅游业可持续发展模式和指导旅游经济健康发展的理念。本文根据我国的具体国情，分析了我国在新世纪初发展生态旅游将要面临的一些挑战。