全球通胀下的三大投资方向

通胀已成为世界各国共同的难题。相比而言,成熟经济体的宏观调控重点仍将在经济下行与通胀上行风险之间摇摆不定,而新兴市场国家的宏观调控则倾向于暂时牺牲一定的经济增速,将控制通胀放在首要位置。由于本轮通胀的表现特征为原材料料和大宗商品价格的上涨,诸如巴西、俄罗斯和中东等能源与原材料出口地区,将充分受益于本轮资源供需紧张下的全球通胀,而且前两者日益强劲的内需市场,使得其股市在未来相当长的一段时间内值得期待。除此之外,商品市场作为通胀期间一贯表现不错的大类资产,将继续有望提供正的投资回报,驱动本轮通胀的能源、农产品以及其他相关的投资标的成为吸引避险资金的主要方向。     

通货膨胀目标制的回顾与展望

本文首先描述了通胀目标制的现状,说明通胀目标制将会成为越来越多的国家的选择并给出在开放经济下通胀目标制模型。第二部分,回顾了通胀目标制十几年来的实行情况,并指出了其成功之处。最后分析了新兴市场国家要实行通胀目标制所面临的问题,这对我国这个对外开放才二十多年的国家来说也有一定的借鉴作用。     

中国与南非通货膨胀的比较

金融危机之后,我国感受到明显的通货膨胀的压力,2009年趋缓之后,2010年通胀压力再次变大。"金砖国家"之一的南非也存在通货膨胀。两国有很多相似处:都是发展中国家和新兴市场国家,贫油国家,农业都具有举足轻重的地位等。希望从和中国合作紧密且相似的南非身上找到解决通货膨胀的办法。文章从中国南非两个国家发生通货膨胀的现象和原因出发,得出中国应采取的对策,抵御通货膨胀的风险。     

观法定准备金率调整无法抑制此次通胀所引发的思考

在已过去大半的2011年中,通货膨胀仍然是困扰中国经济的最大问题。而统计数据显示,其中食品价格的上涨占据了绝大部分,并成为了通胀的本因和"引领者"。法定准备金率是如今中国人民银行治理通胀的最主要手段,在本文中,作者将对法定准备金率的适用状况予以说明,分析现如今中国的通胀类型和食品价格上涨情况,重点解析我国运用这种通胀抑制手段的不合理处,并针对于此提出自己的观点。     

驯悍记

加息只能遏制资产通胀,遏制不了"菜篮子"引发的通胀。中央今时用行政手段促进供应增加、疏导物流、消减中间环节来应付"菜篮子"通胀,已取得一定成效。中国的通胀有中国的特色,仍是由食品价格上升带动的通胀为主,全靠加息解决不了问题。不过中国近日又的确加了息,其意在于进行利率市场化的改革。     

通胀比通缩更有紧迫性

国家发改委公布的2010年10月份监测的31种产品中近80%价格上涨。目前,整个社会充满了各种价格上涨的消息以及人们对通胀的忧虑。而经济学家们也对货币超发表达了担忧,尽管中国的CPI仍然较低,"隐藏式通胀"早在市场爆发。     

中国经济外部风险化解与应对

金融危机之后,中国经济面临的外部风险不断加大。为了应对来自欧美国家的"贸易战"和"汇率战",中国必须开始理解并争取国际话语权。面对不可避免的普遍通胀,指出了中国将外汇储备变成能够抵御通胀的资产和更有效利用国际金融机构资金的有效途径。在此基础上,面对中国—东盟自由贸易区带来的机遇与挑战,加强与国际组织的合作无疑是中国化解外部风险的一个缺口。     

灵活政策应对风暴后的不同世界

狭义的金融风暴已过,美国有望在2009年底走出经济衰退,但此后将是长期的滞胀,这将引发全球性通胀,导致原漓及大宗商品价格重拾升势。部分新兴市场国家则面临信用收缩、资金不足的压力。鉴于美元将会贬值,中国外汇储备的投资要逐步逃离美元资产,并在债券价格高涨之时适当退出,转向购置原材料或重要公司的股权投资。同时,政府应适时调整政策,防止2009年底出现新一轮的经济过热和通胀。     

刘易斯拐点今后十年的最大拐点

随着就业市场的逆转，中国工资上涨会常态化，低端消费会有一次爆炸性增长，同时中烈度通胀持续存在；全球制造业模式可能面临一次全面的调整，过去十年的低通胀环境也会遭遇冲击；在亚洲，以中国为龙头的制造业垂直生产链将逐步瓦解，抢占中国市场和抢夺流出中国的外资及中资成为新时尚。     

对通货膨胀预期的理性思考——学习中央经济工作会议精神的体会

2009年,我国在刺激经济复苏中投资过旺,资源性产品进入新一轮涨价期,国际上的过剩资金和流动资本大量涌入中国市场,使通胀成为可能。2010年,通胀风险犹存,要警惕高风险,预计国家将保持宏观调控政策的连续性和稳定性,继续坚持原有的财政货币政策是主基调,不会进一步加大经济刺激政策力度,宏观调控的重心蒋转移到完善补充已出台政策和加快结构调整上来,从而巩固扩大我国经济走出危困、企稳回升的良好势头。     

Shaanxi Impressions

Ancient, but longing to be modern
In most people＇s eyes, Xi＇an, the capital of Shaanxi, a province in western China, is an alias for ＂Ancient China＂, which is also what Patricia from Arizona, U.S., who was sitting next to me on my Xi＇an flight thought as well. ＂My husband and I managed to spend one precious day there in our busy China trip schedule, just to have a look at the great Terra Cotta Warriors,＂ Patricia＇s eyes were glimmering as we set off flying towards history. The Terra Cotta Warriors are the masterpiece of the First Qin Emperor, whose dynasty dates back to BC 221 - BC 207. Actually, I would prefer to refer to the city as ＂Chang＇an＂, which used to be the city＇s name in the Tang dynasty （AD 618 - 907） when it served as China＇s capital during the most prosperous period in ancient Chinese history.     

No TRT's Overseas Success without GAP and GMP

Beijing Tongrentang(TRT)is a famous time-honored brand in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)industry.In 1669,the 8th year of Emperor Kangxi's reign of the Qing Dynasty(1644-1911),TRT was found by Yue Xianyang,an imperial physician in Beijing.It was 188 years when TRT served the royal courts from 1723 to 1911.TRT earned customers' trust with its persistent philosophy of quality,"No manpower was to be spared,no matter how complicated the procedures of pharmaceutical production were;No material was to be reduced,no matter how much the cost." They have also developed a strong sense of self-discipline with the saying of "Nobody may know what you have done,but the God aware of your conscience".     

Pawn Shop,Cash Cow

An expat in Beijing once wrote these words on his blog,"If you are anxious to exchange your valuables for cash,or want to collect some treasures in Beijing,you may visit Bao Rui Tong Pawn Shop which features agreeable environment,reliable credit,guaranteed quality and profes- sional service."That releases the com-     

园艺产品输美面临的“合规性”贸易壁垒分析

研究美国对我国输美园艺产品发起的调查案件,发现:当前我国输美园艺产品遭遇的"合规性"贸易壁垒主要集中在反倾销和技术性贸易壁垒方面,但随着贸易的发展,面临的反倾销和保障措施的压力也在加剧。为此,建议企业和政府在应对"合规性"贸易壁垒中应该有进一步作为。     

到东方去

工作机会在哪里？如何在2012年创造足够的就业岗位,是世界各国面临的普遍难题。美国的就业市场目前已有所好转。3月15日,美国劳工部数据显示,上周首次申请失业救济的人数为35.1万人,是四年来的最低点。即使如此,对于毕业生而言,工作机会仍然非常宝贵。首先,美国的失业率继续维持在8．3％的高位。其次,按照惯例,缺乏工作经验的年轻人往往是就业市场的弱势群体,其失业率甚至可以达到整体失业率的2—3倍。第三,就业机会对于不同专业的学生而言具有显著差异,大体上,会计、金融、经济、市场营销、人力资源和信息技术等专业就业前景相对较好,而纯文科处于一定劣势。     

Obtaining U.S. Government backing for your export transactions

A guarantee or insurance from a U.S. government may be what you need to get bank financing for your export transactions.     

俞永福 下一站——美国

<正>拥有了3亿多季度活跃用户,掌握着手机浏览器这一平台级移动互联网入口产品,UCWebCEO俞永福有了更大的梦想:向全球市场进军。美国将是UCCEO俞永福的下一个目标。他曾是年薪百万元的联想投资副总裁,在中国企业家"教父"柳传志身边工作过6年。而在出人意料地加入UC之后,他用了6年时间,把产品"卖"到了全世界。     

"The Right Man": James A. Jackson and the Origins of U.S. Government Interest in Black Business

Despite the widely held notion that U.S. government assistanceto African American entrepreneurs commenced in the late 1960s,the evidence indicates that government interest in promotingblack business actually began in the 1920s. Beginning with theappointment of James A. Jackson in November 1927, the U.S. CommerceDepartment’s agenda, until the mid-1950s, included "NegroAffairs." Jackson’s actions did not generate the directfinancial assistance to black entrepreneurs associated withsuch later government initiatives as Richard Nixon’s "BlackCapitalism." Nevertheless, Jackson’s pioneering efforts,to provide black businesspeople with useful information, helpedto positively reshape contemporary African American entrepreneurs’beliefs about the role of government in their lives.     

Marketers' Norms and Personal Values: An Empirical Study of Marketing Professionals

This study explores the relationships among marketers' deontological norms and their personal values. Based on the review of theoretical works in the area of marketing, hypotheses concerning the relationships among marketers' norms and their personal values were developed and tested. Data were collected from 249 marketing professionals. Results from canonical correlation analysis generally indicate that marketers' norms can be partly explained by personal values. Marketers' pricing and distribution norms, information and contract norms, and norms pertaining to marketers' honesty and integrity were significantly related to the personal values emphasizing "excitement," "warm relationships with others," "fun and enjoyment in life," and "a sense of accomplishment."     

The Relationship between Written Business Plans and the Failure of Small Businesses in the U.S.

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of planning on U.S. small business failures. A "failure" was defined as a bankruptcy with losses to creditors; firms with fewer than 500 employees were considered "small." Recently failed firms were selected randomly and matched with non-failed firms on the basis of age, size, industry, and location. The sampling frame was businesses listed in the Dun & Bradstreet credit reporting database. A paired-sample t -test was used to investigate differences between the failed firms and matched non-failed firms. The main conclusion was that very little formal planning goes on in U.S. small businesses; however, non-failed firms do more planning than similar failed firms did prior to failure.