Ability, Openness, and Managerial Decision Making

Impact of the ability and the degree of openness of a manager on decision making is studied. Whether a more able manager increases or decreases the effort of a subordinate depends on the relative quality of information. Greater openness is a two-edged sword: it increases the likelihood that more information will be employed, but it reduces the manager’s incentive to expend effort on obtaining better information. A more open manager is more desirable when the position is relatively more important or the prior information is not very accurate.

Country size and the trade effects of the euro

This paper investigates whether small countries gain relatively more than large countries from an ‘expansion’ of their market through the creation of a single currency. The introduction of the euro offers a particularly valuable source to test this hypothesis, which we motivate using the theoretical model by Casella of the year 1996. Our results from a panel data analysis, using both aggregate and disaggregated trade data, point to a statistically significant but quantitatively moderate small country bonus. On average, the euro has led to an improvement of the small euro area’s relative export performance by 3–9%.

Live or Let Die? Alternative Routes to Industry Exit

Each year around 8% of Swedish manufacturing firms leave an industry. Of the exit routes available, the least likely is firm closure. Firms are more likely to merge, become acquired or switch to a new industry. We investigate the importance of a range of firm and industry characteristics for the exit decision of Swedish firms from 1980–1996. From our analysis two patterns are evident. First, firms that close down appear to be the most distinct compared to those that remain within the sector. Second the same characteristics can have quite different associations with different exit strategies.

Migration and its Determinants: A Study of Two Communities in Colombia

Using data gathered by the author in two communities in Southwestern Colombia, this paper tests a model of migration which incorporates relative deprivation as one of many possible reasons to migrate. The study finds that the product of relative deprivation and family income not only has a sensible interpretation; it is a better predictor of migration than its two component variables alone. Results also show that families with the highest propensities to migrate are those with the most to gain in terms of being better able to reduce relative deprivation through successful migration. These families, however, are neither at the bottom nor at the top of the income distribution in their communities. The study also finds that those most likely to migrate to the USA conform most closely to the immigration policies of the USA.

An Exploration of Asset Returns in a Production Economy with Relative Habits

This paper explores asset returns in a production economy with habit forming households. We show that a model with capital adjustment costs and relative habits is consistent with salient financial facts, such as the equity premium, the market price of risk, and the riskfree interest rate. These predictions are not at odds with good business cycle predictions. In the model, economy investment is strongly procyclical and more volatile than output, which in turn is more volatile than consumption. Moreover, consumption growth is positively autocorrelated and negatively (positively) correlated with future (past) stock returns.

Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?

The accumulation of international reserves by emerging markets raises the question of how to best utilize these funds. This paper explores two routes through which the pooling of reserves could enhance stability and welfare. First, the reserve pool could be used for emergency lending in response to sudden stops. Second, a portion of the reserve pool along with borrowed funds could be used to purchase contingent debt securities issued by governments and corporations, helping to solve the first-mover problem that limits the liquidity of markets in these instruments and hinders their acceptance by private investors. This paper argues that the second option is more likely to be feasible and productive.

Non-Keynesian Fiscal Adjustments? A Close Look at Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in the EU

This paper analyses the characteristics of episodes of fiscal consolidation in the EU exhibiting non-Keynesian features, i.e., followed by an improved growth performance. Roughly half of the episodes of fiscal consolidations that have been undertaken in the EU in the last 30 years have been followed by higher growth. Probit regressions indicate that the consolidations that turned out to be expansionary were more likely started in periods with output below potential and based on expenditure cuts rather than on tax increases. These results appear quite robust with respect to the criteria used to identify the consolidation episodes and to classify such episodes as expansionary.

Non-traded Goods,Technical Progress and Wages

We use a general equilibrium model of trade to show that technical improvement may indeed cause a fall in the wages of unskilled workers. Under some modest conditions, the wages of skilled workers may go down too.

Reconsidering Consumption Risk Sharing among OECD Countries: Some Evidence Based on Panel Cointegration

In this paper we provide a characterization of international consumption risk sharing among a sample of OECD countries based on panel cointegration and error-correction techniques. Our results indicate that around 30% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared in the short run. In the long run, however, only about 10% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared internationally. In addition, we find that countries characterized by relatively high foreign asset and liability positions are less exposed to shocks. Moreover, the time it takes until idiosyncratic shocks exert their full impact on consumption crucially depends on the foreign asset and liability position.

Labour Market Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries

This paper provides some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian manufacturing industries. Controlling for endogeneity using generalized method of moments estimation, it is found that during the 1981–1997 period, exchange movements have a substantial impact on labour input and that this impact has grown over time as the manufacturing industries have become more exposed to trade. In contrast, the exchange rate effect on real wages is estimated to be virtually zero for all manufacturing industries.

Efficient interconnection charges and capacity-based pricing

Capacity-based interconnection (CBI) prices vary exactly with the costs a network provider incurs when supplying an interconnecting party. That is, they equal incremental costs, rather than being averaged over any output measure. We argue such prices (1) are as practicable and more efficient than per minute rates based on long run incremental cost, (2) are more efficient than bill and keep, and (3) with mark-ups for cost recovery, are a practical and relatively efficient means of pricing wholesale interconnection services, being well-suited to both circuit and packet-based networks.

Local School Finance and Productive Efficiency: Evidence from Ohio

This paper examines the relationship between local financing of education and school district efficiency. In a system of local school finance, the capitalization of school quality in housing prices provides homeowners with verifiable information regarding the impact of school officials’ actions and strong incentives to act upon that information. I find evidence that school districts with a higher percentage of revenues from local sources perform better on state math tests. In addition, the amount of residential property within a school district is positively related to math test passage rates.

Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to “bottom-up” approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.

Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific

In this paper, we construct a macro-econometric model that describes the economic activity in the Asia-Pacific area and provide quantitative insights into the recent policy debates on monetary and currency coordination among the East Asian economies. The model includes a wide variety of monetary and currency policy rules that the East Asian economies adopt and allows for one country's policymaking to have substantial effects on foreign countries. We apply the model to three current policy issues: (1) the desirability of currency basket pegs in East Asia, (2) the anticipated effects of China's currency policy reform, and (3) the non-negativity constraint on Japanese nominal interest rates. The simulation analyses show the external economy effects of policy rules quantitatively and suggest the difficulty of monetary and currency policy coordination among the East Asian economies.

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Introducing Instruments of Central Bank Accountability in a Monetary Union

With an increasing number of independent central banks, accountability of central banks is also getting more attention. This paper analyses the possibility of introducing instruments of central bank accountability in a monetary union. In our model, monetary policy is influenced by the governments of the member states according to the degree of independence granted to the central bank. Instruments of democratic accountability are introduced which generate different expected losses for a government. The amount of the expected loss will determine the approval of a government to the implementation of a particular mechanism. We show that the agreement between the governments will only be unanimous for the definition of the inflation target of the central bank.

Running the Numbers on Lotteries and the Poor: An Empirical Analysis of Transfer Payment Distribution and Subsequent Lottery Sales

State lottery revenues are shown to increase during the week transfer payments are distributed. The timing of the increase in lottery purchases suggests a portion of the transfer payments is used to purchase lottery tickets. In addition to providing information on the timing of lottery purchases, this study finds sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets increase during the period, while sales of Pick 5 and Pick 6 games do not, suggesting a general preference for the relatively higher probability, smaller jackpot games for the group.

Testing the Links between Institutional Integration and Trade Deepening: Clues from Europe

This paper investigates the interaction between institutional integration and trade deepening in the EU over the last 50 years. It uses Granger causality tests, a VECM and variance decompositions to further the understanding of this interaction. The evidence indicates two-way endogeneity. But the link from institution building to trade dominates. Yet, this link has weakened over time, possibly due to globalisation sidestepping institutions. Moreover, the sensitivity of institutional integration to trade deepening has risen, which suggests that economic forces have gained more strength in determining institutional steps.

The Relationship Between Labor Market Structure and Clergy Compensation in Protestant Denominations

Many recent economic studies have shown that traditional economic theory applies to nontraditional settings such as religious organizations. This paper contrasts two labor markets for clergy that result from different denominational polities to examine the impact of labor market structure on clergy compensation in Protestant denominations. Many Protestant churches operate autonomously and clergy and congregations negotiate contracts in a free market. However, in a distinct sub-group of Protestant denominations there is involvement by denominational hierarchy in order to raise the level of clergy compensation and benefits. Regression analysis using a unique, random sample of US clergy suggests that different labor market structures result in economically important and statistically significant differences in the distributions of clergy salaries and benefits.

The choice of inflation targeting—an empirical investigation

A growing number of countries have anchored their monetary policy to an explicit numerical rate or range of inflation since such an inflation targeting framework was first adopted by New Zealand in 1989. This paper empirically investigates economic structure and institutional factors associated with a country’s choice of inflation targeting using a dataset of 66 countries for the period of 1980–2000. It is found that a sound fiscal position is significantly and positively associated with the choice of inflation targeting framework; the central bank is more likely to adopt inflation targeting with greater financial depth; institutional capacity including central bank autonomy and flexible exchange rate regime is important for the choice of inflation targeting.

Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation

The puzzle that real exchange rates are less volatile in open economies is an important challenge to exchange rate theory. Adjustment of domestic prices to nominal exchange rate movements can account for only a small proportion of this effect. Real and nominal shocks display no obvious correlation with openness. It is shown here that real effective exchange rates are more strongly mean-reverting in more open economies, even after controlling for exchange rate regime effects. This is predicted by the theory of current account sustainability, because of its emphasis on ratios to GDP rather than to trade flows.