On consumer choice patterns and the net impact of feature promotions

Even in the digital age, feature promotions continue to receive significant investments from CPG manufacturers and retailers. Whether this is money well spent depends on consumers' (heterogeneous) tendency to switch brands or stores in response to features. This study proposes a ‘Mixed-pattern Random-effects Nested Logit’ (MRNL) model to analyse the effect of feature promotions in a multi-retailer multi-brand setting. Across 16 different CPG categories, our results reveal that in all cases a mixture of choice patterns prevails: about half of households exhibit a brand focus (i.e. rather substitute between stores offering that brand), the remaining half show evidence of a store focus (i.e. rather substitute brand offers within a visited store). We find that the size of the promotion lift and its underlying sources differ substantially between patterns. Brand-focused consumers are generally more responsive to feature ads than store-focused consumers – especially in low-concentration categories; while they imply much stronger cannibalization for the manufacturer, and much weaker cannibalization for the retailer. It follows that retailers reap much higher benefits in the brand-focused segment, while manufacturers may not prefer that segment in terms of net gains and must be wary of subsidizing those consumers. We identify household and category characteristics that underlie the choice patterns and offer opportunities for targeting.     

What Drives Household Choice of Organic Products in Grocery Stores?

This paper studies how households choose organic products on a given store visit. We develop a three-stage purchase incidence/brand choice/purchase quantity model for organic products. Shared random effects parameters link the three stages of the model. We empirically quantify the effects of category variables, marketing mix, and demographic variables on the purchase of organic products using a unique household panel dataset that includes actual organic purchase data from two markets, by over 4,500 households in 25 stores for the period between January 2004 and June 2009. First, we find that the purchase of organic products is greater among the high income, college educated, and older families as well as among consumers holding high-level occupations. Second, households tend not to purchase organic products when buying in concentrated categories. Third, on average, households tend to buy organic store brands more than the organic national brands. Promotions of organic brands (feature ad and display) are less likely to drive households to buy organic brands and so does the organic brand's distribution breadth. Finally, price has an inverted U-shaped effect. We discuss the implications of these results for retailers, manufacturers and researchers.     

A multi-category customer base analysis

Customer base analysis is an essential tool to measure and develop relationships with customers. While various models have been proposed in a noncontractual setting, they focus primarily on analyzing transactional patterns associated with a single product category or a firm-level activity, such as the times at which purchases are made at a particular retailer. This research proposes a modeling framework for customer base analysis in a multi-category context. Specifically, we model the time between a customer's purchases at the firm and the product categories that comprise her shopping basket arising from multi-category choice decisions. The proposed model uses a latent space approach that parsimoniously captures the dynamics of multi-category shopping behavior due to the interplay between purchase timing and shopping basket composition. We also account for interdependence among multiple categories, temporal dependence across category choices, and latent customer attrition. Using category-level transaction data, we show that the proposed model offers excellent fit and performance in predicting customer purchase patterns across multiple categories. The forecasts and inferences afforded by our model can assist managers in tailoring marketing efforts across categories.     

The Indirect Impact of Price Deals on Households’ Purchase Decisions Through the Formation of Expected Future Prices

We examine the indirect impact of price deals, which occurs through the formation of expected future prices, on households’ purchase decisions. Two competing learning processes of households’ formation of expected future deals that lead to opposite predictions are proposed. Under a deal-probability learning process, a current deal on a brand raises households’ expectations of a deal on the same brand in the immediate future, while under a deal-timing learning process, a current deal on a brand lowers households’ expectations of a deal on the same brand. We embed each learning specification within a comprehensive econometric framework that simultaneously examines three purchase decisions – incidence, brand choice and quantity – at the household level, while explicitly correcting for two sources of selectivity bias in discrete quantity outcomes. We estimate the proposed model using scanner panel data on paper towels, and find that (1) the deal-probability learning process better describes how households incorporate the deal information into the formation of future price expectations compared to the deal-timing learning process; (2) the indirect impact of price deals is greater for brand-loyals than for brand-switchers; (3) the indirect impact of price deals is greater for larger families, heavy users, less educated and less employed households, and infrequent shoppers. We also show that ignoring the indirect impact of price deals severely overstates the sales effects.     

Accounting for heterogeneity and dynamics in the loyalty-price sensitivity relationship

Marketers have been interested in the relationship between brand loyalty and price sensitivity for many years and have examined whether loyalty reduces consumer price sensitivity. The results, to date, indicate that loyalty does indeed raise the price that consumers are willing to pay for a brand. Other than this broad finding, however, there has been little research in the literature regarding whether and how this relationship varies across consumers and product categories and, within consumers, over time. This is the issue that we investigate in this paper. Specifically, we examine whether the price sensitivity-loyalty relationship is heterogeneous and dynamic. We propose an approach wherein the price sensitivity parameter of a brand choice model is specified as a function of loyalty with three parameters. The first parameter of this function represents the maximum possible reduction in price sensitivity due to loyalty. The second parameter affects the type and shape of the relationship between price sensitivity and loyalty. In particular, depending on the value of this parameter, the relationship could be non-existent, follow a concave shape, indicating decreasing response to increases in loyalty, or be S-shaped to capture the case of increasing response initially followed by decreasing response subsequently. Finally, the third parameter captures the rate at which price sensitivity falls as loyalty increases.We use the proposed approach to investigate the relationship in four frequently purchased categories. In each category, we select a sample of households and calibrate the model on the choices of all the households in the sample. We next employ an Empirical Bayes approach to obtain household-level estimates of all the parameters. These parameters are then used to assign each household in each category to a no response or concave or S-shaped response groups. Within each of these three groups, we assign each household to one of four different response level and rate segments, that is, high response-high rate, high response-low rate, low response-high rate, and low response-low rate. Each of these segments differs in the response level, that is, the maximum reduction in price sensitivity as loyalty reaches a maximum—and the response rate, that is, how quickly price sensitivity falls with increases in loyalty.Following the assignment of each household to a segment in each category, we pool the households across all four categories and calibrate a membership function. This function explains households’ membership in different segments in terms of product category characteristics, household demographics, the household’s responses to price, display, and feature promotions and the evolution of loyalty of the household.Our findings suggest that the nature of the loyalty-price sensitivity relationship does vary across consumers as well as over time. Specifically, the concave response is more likely than the S-shaped response or the absence of a response. We find that the S-shaped response is not related to responsiveness to in-store promotions. It is, however, associated with a slower growth in loyalty to a brand as it is purchased. The concave response, on the other hand, is associated with responsiveness to feature promotions but is unrelated to how loyalty to brands evolves with their purchases.We also find that demographic characteristics are related to the behavior of the concave and S-shaped responses. Specifically, for the S-shaped response, household demographics are related to both the maximum level of the curve as well as its rate of growth. In particular, the curve grows faster with age and its maximum increases with the weekly working hours of the household. In the case of the concave response, high income and more working hours raise the maximum level that the curve achieves. Its rate of growth, however, is unaffected by demographics.We also provide several managerial implications for loyalty and promotional programs based on our findings. Specifically, our first finding—that the loyalty-price sensitivity relationship is dynamic—suggests that, rather than having promotional programs, where the value of the price promotion is fixed and some consumers are targeted with the promotion while others are not, managers should have an entire schedule of price promotions with each level of promotions targeting consumers at a different loyalty level.Our second finding that the nature of the loyalty-price sensitivity relationship is heterogeneous across consumers suggests that designing loyalty programs on the basis of crude classifications such as loyals and non-loyals is not appropriate. Instead, households that are identified as loyal, need to be further divided based on how the loyalty affects their price sensitivity. Promotional programs should then be based on the specific type of relationship that a household exhibits.The third finding that the reductions in price sensitivity to loyalty can exhibit an S-shaped or a concave pattern also has an interesting managerial implication. Specifically, given the differences between the two patterns in how long it might take a consumer to reach a point where s(he) is willing to purchase a brand due to loyalty rather than due to a price promotion, and hence be a profitable customer, it may be preferable for managers to invest more in consumers who exhibit a concave rather than an S-shaped response.Finally, our result that different categories may exhibit different patterns of the relationship between price sensitivity and loyalty implies that each category needs to be analyzed by itself for what the nature of the loyalty-price sensitivity relationship is likely to be so that the most appropriate program for that category can be developed.     

品牌品类扩张边界的经济分析:基于选择成本分析范式

基于选择成本分析范式,通过引入品类相似系数这一新概念,构建数理模型,分析品类扩张的内在机制。结果表明,品类数量的增加将有利于品牌需求量的提高,但由于消费者选择成本的存在,品类数量的进一步增加将会降低品牌信用度,造成选择成本的增加,从而抑制需求量的扩大,最终品类数量和品牌需求量将会趋向于均衡状态,存在品牌品类扩张的边界。     

Are two brands better than one? Investigating the effects of co-branding in advertising on audience memory

Co-branded advertising, where advertisements feature two partnered brands from different categories, should ideally benefit both brands. We test this assertion by studying the effect of featuring a second brand in advertisements on ad and brand name memorability, and the role of category context on which brand is recalled. Our test covers online display advertisements for consumer-packaged brands paired with charity and retailer brands in three markets (USA, UK, and Australia). Independent sample comparisons across 54 brand pairs show that advertising two brands has a neutral effect on ad memorability and negative effect on brand memorability. Furthermore, the advertisement’s category context determines which of the brands is recalled. Our findings support a competitive interference theory of dual-brand processing, whereby the two brands compete for attention resources. The results have implications for the return on investment from advertising expenditure, which will vary substantively depending on whether the costs of advertising are shared or borne by one brand in the pair.     

How category characteristics affect the number of store brands offered by the retailer: a model and empirical analysis

Our research examines why retailers offer, not one, but multiple store brands in some product categories. More specifically, we are interested in how certain product category characteristics affect the number of store brands. We model a product category consisting of two incumbent national brands that may differ in strength. The retailer may introduce one or two store brands depending on which maximizes category profits. Our analysis suggests that the retailer is likely to carry two store brands in categories where (i) the national brands are similar in strength; and (ii) the price sensitivity between the national brands is low. Interestingly, the conditions that support the introduction of more than one store brand are quite different than the conditions that would facilitate the introduction of additional national brands. We provide empirical evidence that support our model-based predictions.     

How Attitudes Toward Product Categories Drive Individual Brand Attitudes and Choice

Three experiments examine the role of attitudes toward the category to which a brand belongs in consumers’ attitudes toward individual brands. The core findings indicate that what consumers think generally about a category affects their evaluations of singular brands belonging to the category. Study 1 demonstrates that both consumers’ attitudes toward a category as well as their relative attitudes toward a brand versus intracategory competitors drive overall attitudes toward individual brands. Study 2 shows that manipulating attitudes toward a product category affects attitudes toward, and purchase intention of, individual brands belonging to that category. Study 3 demonstrates that more versus less favorably evaluated categories are more likely to exhibit brand positivity effects in judgments of singular brands. The results suggest the practical importance of measuring attitudes toward product categories, as well as the utility of marketing interventions aimed at the category level.     

Multiple-Category Decision-Making: Review and Synthesis

In many purchase environments, consumers use information from a number of product categories prior to making a decision. These purchase situations create dependencies in choice outcomes across categories. As such, these decision problems cannot be easily modeled using the single-category, single-choice paradigm commonly used by researchers in marketing. We outline a conceptual framework for categorization, and then discuss three types of cross-category dependence: cross-category consideration cross-category learning, and product bundling. We argue that the key to modeling choice dependence across categories is knowledge of the goals driving consumer behavior.     

The dark side of innovation: How new SKUs affect brand choice in the presence of consumer uncertainty and learning

New product activity is critical for sustained success of consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands. However, the impact of new SKUs on the perceived quality, quality uncertainty and subsequent choice of the brand as a whole is, as of yet, not well understood. The authors study how new additions to the brand line shape consumers’ quality perceptions, and how this – next to the mere line length effect – influences their choice of brands over time. They do so in the setting of an emerging market (China), where new product activity is particularly pervasive. Using a unique scanner panel dataset of Chinese households over the period 2011–2014, they estimate a Bayesian learning model that accommodates varying quality, on two CPG categories, and for two types of new-product additions (new sensory SKUs vs. new non-sensory SKUs). They show that while adding new SKUs may lift the brand’s perceived quality level, it also makes consumers more uncertain about the quality of the brand – dampening their brand choice. This holds especially for light customers – an important part of the brand clientele. Managerial implications are discussed.     

Premium generic brand (PGB) choice vis-à-vis generic and national brands: A scenario comparison for self-use,family consumption and gift giving in a food versus non-food and cross-cultural context

PurposeThe study models factors affecting brand category choice for generic as well as national brands, and next contrasts them to a new brand category: premium generic brands (PGB). PGB are a new occurrence in brand and product management, and consumer reactions to PGB are not yet well understood.Design/methodology/approachThree purchase motivation scenarios were presented to 553 consumers to test for their purchase intentions for self-consumption, family use or gift giving. A quasi-experiment was chosen where respondents were exposed to store-like presentations of actual real life products and asked for their likelihood to choose the national or generic brand over the new PGB. The study applied multivariate testing such as MANOVA.FindingsSeparate models were developed for food and non-food choice through backward deletion regression analyses, and the most parsimonious models revealed strong similarities for self as well as family consumption choices, but distinct drivers for gifts. Value for money, image and satisfaction are key factors in brand choice overall, but for gifts, ‘image’ overpowers all other predictors.Originality/valueThe study identified the Chinese as a distinct consumer segment for brand choice since they are more open to potentially consider PGB as gifts, whereas Caucasians only buy national brands for gift giving.     

The effects of competitive context on consumer response to price changes

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to understand how a brand’s price level, relative to its competitors, will affect consumers’ responses to price changes of the brand. The study uses experiments to examine brand choice responses to price increases and decreases across contexts differing in competitor brands and their respective prices. These experiments are conducted with six consumer goods categories. The research identifies three key factors that affect the size of responses to brand price changes – (1) passing a competitor brand’s price, (2) narrowing versus widening the price gaps with competitors, and (3) whether competitors are predominantly higher or lower priced brands.     

A new C-OAR-SE-based content-valid and predictively valid measure that distinguishes brand love from brand liking

This article provides a new, C-OAR-SE-based, contrastive measure that distinguishes “brand love” from “brand liking.” The new measure is tested in an empirical study conducted among German university students about brands of products that they buy in four diverse product categories. From a consumer perspective, the incidence of consumers who have a loved brand in the category was found to be only 17 % for laundry detergent, 18 % for coffee, and 26 % for computers, peaking at 45 % in the fashion clothing category — findings that suggest that over half of young consumers do not acquire the state of brand love. Turning alternatively to a brand perspective, the findings indicate that, in general, about one in four of the brand’s customers will come to love the brand. Loving the brand, versus merely liking it, clearly pays off behaviorally — thereby demonstrating very good predictive validity for the new contrastive measure. Brand purchase or usage rate and brand recommendations were found to be approximately doubled for those who love the brand in comparison with those who merely like it.     

Shopping Style Segmentation of Consumers

The World Wide Web has rapidly become an alternative means to reach customers and has attracted the attention of many businesses. Unfortunately, however, despite its growth, there is little knowledge of which consumers would be willing to switch to the new format and to what extent. Our paper is aimed at providing some insights into these questions. Specifically, we propose a model to identify segments that differ in their shopping style, i.e., in their preference for which format, or bundle of formats, they like to shop in.Our research question, and model, is similar in spirit to prior research in marketing on how consumers choose assortments. Despite this similarity, our research makes some substantive and methodological contributions to the literature. Substantively, we examine the issue of the choice of channel assortments by consumers across a variety of product categories. We believe this is an important question and one that has not been examined earlier. From a methodological point of view, our model adds to earlier work by specifying the utility of an assortment as a sum of the deterministic and stochastic components of the utilities of its members. This contrasts with previous research where only the deterministic components of the utilities of the component brands of an assortment are added and the relationships between their random components are not accounted for.We calibrate the model on data regarding the format choices of households. In order to control for potentially similar format preferences across purchases of different categories we specify the model to allow for correlation between format preferences over the choice history of each household. Our results suggest that there are four segments of consumers that differ in their preference for different types of formats.     

On the Extendibility of Brands with Subordinate versus Basic Category Concepts

In this paper, we use a series of experimental studies to show that consumers’ response to the extension of a brand associated with a basic versus a sub-category depends on the closeness of the brand's parent and extension categories. When the two categories are close, consumers respond more favorably to the extension of a brand with a basic category concept, but the pattern reverses when the categories are far apart. However, a brand with a basic category concept can mitigate its disadvantage in a distant category by first launching an intervening line extension. Our results suggest that brands with sub-category concepts are not limited in their ability to extend, and can help retailers meet the twin objectives of leveraging the high growth of specialized categories and rationalizing their brand portfolio. They also suggest that managers should aim to extend brands with sub-category concepts into distant categories where the modifier in the brand concept is relevant rather than into close categories.     

Store Brand Quality and Retailer’s Product Line Design

This study analyzes a retailer’s store brand quality decision in vertically differentiated product categories. We analyze a game theoretic model composed of one or two national brand manufacturers and a retailer, who strategically chooses the quality level(s) of its store brand(s) relative to the well-established national brand position(s) to maximize its category profit. Our analysis reveals that the nature of a retailer’s store brand quality positioning is quite different from the manufacturer’s national brand positioning decision, and that the best position for a store brand is not “as close to a national brand as possible” as previous studies suggest. Instead, the optimal quality position of each store brand is remarkably sensitive to the distribution of consumers’ willingness-to-pay. In particular, the relative proportions of quality sensitive consumers and price sensitive consumers determine the balance of three key strategic forces — the market expansion force, the retail margin force, and the consumer profitability force, leading to different optimal product line designs for store brands across different category environments. Interestingly, against multiple incumbent national brands, the retailer’s optimal product line design includes a store brand positioned at the highest quality level in the category only if most consumers are moderately quality conscious. We also analyze the implications of national brands’ brand equity for retailers’ store brand strategy.     

Behavioural loyalty towards store brands

This paper applies a consumer brand choice model to measure store brand (SB) loyalty. The aim of this paper is to examine whether SB loyalty is different across categories, and we focus on risk perception as an explanatory variable. The model is estimated using ACNielsen Spanish household scanner panel data on two laundry detergent categories over a 2-year period for more than 1107 households. Loyalty, price, socio-demographics and shopping behaviour variables are included. The discrete-choice model formulation is the logit model.     

The fight between store brands and national brands—What's the score?

In the Western world market shares for store brands have increased across all product categories. The competitive position of store brands compared to national brands may depend on the product category and a retail chain's overall brand assortment strategy. In order to investigate these possible chain and category effects we have selected five chains with different store brand strategies and three product categories that differ with respect to the number of strong national brands in a category. The results we report focus on the competitive position of store brands compared to national brands from a consumer point of view. We find that store brands are in a weak competitive position compared to national brands independent of category and retail chain brand assortment strategy.     

The role of perceived value in vertical brand extensions of luxury and premium brands

Abstract

This study examines the role of perceived value in the relationship between brand attitude, perceived fit, extension attitude and consumers’ purchase intention of downscale vertical extensions of luxury and premium brands in two product categories: cars and shoes. Results from 236 individuals with different income levels show that extension attitude is positively related to purchase intention both directly and indirectly, via the perceived value of the extension; the latter is more strongly correlated than extension attitude to consumers’ purchase intention. Brand attitude is also positively associated with perceived value. Overall, perceived value partially mediates the relationships of brand attitude and of extension attitude with purchase intention. The product category affects the strength of some of the relationships in the model, including the role of fit.