房地产税收结构与房价关系的研究

近些年,房价问题引起社会普遍关注。本文通过建立面板数据模型,研究了不同地区的房地产税收对房价的影响。研究表明房地产税收对房价有影响,但各个税种在不同地区的影响效果和贡献度不同。因此,差别化房地产税收制度结构是当前房地产市场调控的关键。     

基于面板分位数回归的住宅价格影响因素分析

采用面板分位数回归方法,以全国35个大中城市为样本,利用2006—2015年的数据,对影响住宅价格的因素进行研究。结果表明：土地价格、人均储蓄余额、在岗职工平均工资、人口密度、空气质量对住宅价格有正向影响,每亿人医院或卫生院数量对住宅价格有负向影响;并且不同分位数水平下各影响因素的作用大小具有明显差异。研究结论对不同城市依据自身特征采取相应的调控政策具有一定的参考价值。     

金融期货价格波动限制机制探讨

金融期货价格稳定机制延缓了价格发现过程，并造成了流动性干扰，但从降低期货、现货交易总成本来讲，它还是利大于弊，因此设置价格波动限制是一种可行的政策，而且在期货、现货市场同时设定的效果最好。此外，从不同价格波动限制方式的影响来看，选择弹性涨跌幅限制可较好地发挥价格限制的好处，减小价格限制的不利影响。     

我国公共保障性住房价格机制研究

保障性住房价格是住房保障制度的重要组成部分,价格合理与否不仅关系到住房保障政策的实施效果,而且还是住房保障政策可持续发展的前提.从理论上看,保障性住房价格机制包括价格形成和价格运行机制,二者相互影响、相互制约而又相互促进.当前,我国保障性住房价格形成机制和运行机制都存在一些亟待解决的问题.本文在分析保障性住房价格形成机制、运行机制的基础上,构建一个科学合理的能指导住房保障工作实践的价格机制.     

住房投机与政策调控对房价波动的影响——基于中国40个重点城市的数据

构建住房需求结构、政策调控和价格的动态系统模型,依据2007-2021年40个重点城市季度数据,考量政策调控对于住房投机和房价波动实施效果。结果显示：住房投机推动了房价上涨,政府住房调控政策对房价波动影响差异显著;异质性分析显示,不同地区政策调控实施效果存在差异。鉴于此,应因城施策、分类指导,同时积极畅通房地产调控政策传导机制,提高传导效率,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

房价水平对企业创新研发支出的影响机制

基于中国A股上市公司2012—2018年的公司数据和35个大中城市的房价数据,检验房价水平对企业创新研发支出的整体影响,并分别以企业房地产投资和研发人员数量为中介变量,检验房价水平对企业创新研发支出影响的作用机制.研究发现:从企业间对比来看,房价水平与企业创新研发支出水平正向相关.房价升高会使企业增加房地产投资,从而对企业研发支出产生"挤出效应";同时,房价升高会伴随着劳动力的"分类"现象,即高技能、高素质劳动力会更多地向高房价城市流动,使企业研发人员雇佣数量上升,促进企业的创新行为.但从同一企业各年对比来看,房价上涨会导致其研发支出的下降.     

普惠制金融体系与金融稳定

以全球金融危机为转折点,中国的经济金融运行出现了诸多新迹象,其中的突出问题是金融资源配置的不均衡。一方面,银行业总资产突破100万亿元,相伴随的却是连续两年的实体经济部门融资难;另一方面,在经济下行期和负利率背景下,银行业获得了较高的利润。据此,本文提出如下观点:第一,普惠制金融体系建设的滞后性导致了融资集中和系统性风险积聚,过多的金融资源集中于政府项目和投机领域;第二,普惠制金融体系建设有助于通过分散金融资源配置以换取更为稳定的金融环境;第三,如果金融业侧重中小经济主体融资,则整体盈利水平还将进一步提高,其主要盈利来源将从数量扩张转向风险溢价。     

Excessive Financial Support,Real Estate Development and Macroeconomic Growth: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT

Using monthly panel data for China’s 30 provinces from 2007 to 2017, this article analyzes how level of financial support affects the interplay between real estate development and macroeconomic growth. Based on a threshold model, the results suggest that housing price increases substantially impede economic growth, but there is no significant threshold effect for the sample as a whole. On investigating regional cross-sectional variations, we found that local economic situation clearly impacts on this effect, with significant threshold effects detected in subsamples. While housing price may have positive influences on economic growth in the mid-west subgroup with appropriate financial support, more developed regions returned contrary results.     

基于空间异质性的中国住房空置率与房地产金融风险研究

运用空间计量方法,利用2004-2015年30省市面板数据考量住房空置率对房地产金融风险的影响.结果表明:中国房地产金融风险在空间上存在显著的正向关联,地理距离和经济距离均会对区域房地产风险及其空间相关性产生显著影响,在考虑了空间影响后住房空置率对房地产金融风险的影响显著为正.     

The Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices: A Comparison of Repeat-Sales,Hedonic-Regression,and Hybrid Approaches

This article examines a number of hypotheses that underpin the repeat-sales and hedonic approaches to the construction of housing price indices, as well as the practical problems associated with the implementation of either approach. We also examine a hybrid procedure that combines elements of both the repeat-sales and hedonic-regression techniques. For our sample of individual home sales in Oakland and Fremont California over an 18-year period, repeat-sales methods are subject to sample selection bias; the maintained assumption of time constancy of implicit prices of housing attributes is violated; the repeat-sales estimator is extremely sensitive to influential observations; and the usual method used to correct for heteroskedasticity in repeat-sale housing returns is inappropriate in our sample. Hedonic techniques are better suited to contend with index number problems per se, as they can accommodate changing attribute prices over time. They also appear to give rise to more reliable estimates of price indices, as unusual observations have less effect on estimated price indices. Drawbacks of the hedonic approach include the usual concern with omitted attributes, and their effect on the estimated price index.     

功能金融理论与我国金融体系的稳定性和效率性

功能金融理论认为,金融体系具有便利清算和支付、聚集和分配资源以及分散风险的功能.一个稳定和富有效率的金融体系通过有效发挥这三大核心功能,能够极大地促进一国国民经济的增长.根据该理论,本文通过研究我国金融体系上述三大功能的发挥程度来判断其稳定性和效率性.大量实证资料表明,我国金融体系虽然能够最大限度地动员社会储蓄,便利各种交易的清算和支付,但是其储蓄-投资转化率低下,资源配置功能弱化,风险分散和转移能力不高.因此,应在提高投资转化率、创新金融工具和技术、建立高效融资平台、改善公司治理机制和信息披露机制等方面完善我国的金融体系.     

Population Structure and Housing Prices: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This study analyzes the relationship between the proportion of the economically active population aged 15–64 to total population and housing prices. A panel of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2014 is used in our analysis. We find empirical evidence that the impact of the population structure on housing-price growth increases as the population growth rates rise. This observation suggests that, to understand provincial housing price movements in China, one should consider the ratio of working-age population to total population in a province. The main policy implication is that Chinese policymakers need to ensure a moderated population growth to effectively promote stability in housing prices and the economy.     

公积金约束、家庭类型与住宅特征需求——来自中国的经验分析

公积金约束正成为分化不同类型家庭住房支付能力和消费偏好的重要因素。本文利用1995年和2002年城市住户调查数据,检验公积金约束对不同类型家庭住宅特征需求的影响。实证结果表明,在住宅特征需求方面,公积金约束的影响效应存在显著的收入差异、单位类型差异、职业类型差异、职称差异和行业收入差异。其中,社会地位较高的家庭在提高住宅结构特征需求方面获得了更多的公积金支持;而在住宅邻里特征需求方面,公积金制度对社会地位较低家庭的贡献度较高。在引入工具变量、检验公积金变量的内生性偏误时发现,城镇家庭在改善型住房需求方面对社会保障体系的完善有较强的依赖性。本文的政策含义是,住房公积金制度定位应向低收入群体倾斜,并根据家庭类型实行有差别的政策。     

金融改革对收入不平等的影响研究——理论解释与实证分析

采集55个新兴市场国家的非平衡面板数据,使用动态门限面板模型实证结果表明,金融改革与收入不平等间存在明显的门限效应,当金融改革水平低于门限值时,金融改革会扩大收入差距;当金融改革水平越过门限值时,金融改革有利于收入差距的缩小.多数新兴市场国家金融改革对降低收入不平等已经发挥正向效应,为缩小新兴市场国家收入差距,必须进一步深化金融改革.     

金融生态环境、股价波动同步性与上市企业融资约束

我国股票市场股价波动同步性是否正向地反映了股价的信息吸收效率?本文将股价波动同步性作为衡量信息不对称的指标,以2003~2006年我国上市企业为样本,检验在不同金融生态环境下股价波动同步性对企业融资约束的影响。研究发现在交易噪声广泛存在的我国股票市场,股价波动同步性与上市企业融资约束呈负相关关系,且对那些处于发达金融生态环境中的企业而言,这一负相关关系表现得更为明显。研究表明在控制企业规模等因素后,股价包含更多的市场和行业信息本身正向地反映了股价的信息吸收效率,而发达的金融生态环境有助于提高股价对市场和行业信息的吸收。     

Leverage,Consumer Finance,and Housing Prices in China

In this article, we focus on the effect of household borrowing behavior on housing prices in China, under the background of rapid growth of consumer finance during the past decade. We build a micromodel to deduce the relationship between consumers’ leverage, housing enterprises’ leverage, and housing prices and use a dynamic panel model and panel error correction model to do the empirical work. The results show that the first- and second-tier cities of China are greatly influenced by leverages, the second-tier cities also by local growth, and the third-tier cities are weakly affected by leverages but greatly affected by the land prices. Further explanations and discussions of the empirical results are given accordingly.     

Price spreads and residential housing market liquidity

Most studies of housing market liquidity have measured liquidity in terms of time on the market (TOM), and have sought to explain TOM in terms of property characteristics and measures of market conditions. This paper departs from past studies of housing market liquidity by examining the spread between the listing and contract prices.We develop theory to explain the price spreads in the residential housing market. The model includes the list price of the home, the cost of the search, the standard deviation of offer prices, and TOM. Empirical tests using 3,597 sales for 25 months show a robust relationship of housing market spreads and these variables. Listing price and cost of search have the predicted positive coefficients, and the standard deviation of price offers is found to be negatively related to the price spread.     

Economic Globalization and Financial Development in East Asia: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study examines the role of economic globalization in financial development in eight East Asian economies. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals that cointegration is present among economic globalization, institutions, financial development, real gross domestic product per capita, and financial reforms. The Granger causality test results indicate that economic globalization has a significant causal influence on institutional quality, and institutional reforms have in turn facilitated and supported financial development, in particular of the banking sector in East Asia. Economic globalization is also found to have a favorable causal impact on stock market development without going through the institutional quality channel.     

我国城镇住房保障制度金融政策的现状评析与改革建议

住房供给保障制度与住房金融政策,作为向居民提供住房保障与融资支持的重要条件,对于中低收入阶层居民住房条件的改善,具有决定性的影响。与对中高收入阶层居民的影响相比,我国的住房金融体制在为中低收入居民提供金融支持方面存在一定的缺陷：低收入居民从现行住房金融体系中获得的支持与其贡献不相匹配,存在着＂劫贫济富＂的现象。针对这些问题,本文提出从住房金融机构的设立和完善、住房抵押贷款证券化、适当的制约和监督措施三方面入手,对我国住房保障制度金融政策进行改革。