全球价值链的发展改变了什么

全球价值链的发展改变了国际贸易的性质,并对收入的形成、竞争力的衡量和贸易政策的制定产生了重要影响。全球价值链创造了财富,但不同国家的财富增长速度是不同的;全球价值链也改变了竞争力的意义,使得竞争力的衡量更加侧重于企业的跨境生产;全球价值链加深了国家之间的依赖,政策合作更加重要。     

Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country‐Sector Level

The real effective exchange rate (REER) is one of the most cited statistics in open‐economy macroeconomics. We show that the models used to compute these numbers are not rich enough to allow for the rising importance of global value chains. Moreover, because different sectors within a country participate in international production sharing at different stages, sector‐level variations are also important for determining competitiveness. Incorporating these features, we develop a framework to compute REER at both the sector and country level and apply it on intercountry input‐output tables to study the properties of the new measures.     

Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

The Asset Growth Effect and Investor Protection in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Global Financial Crisis

The previous evidence shows that firms experience lower returns after a period with higher growth in assets. Two alternative explanations have been raised to explain this effect: mispricing and optimal investment. This study examines this effect in 26 emerging markets over the period of 2005–2013 with a special attention to the recent global financial crisis. We find a stronger asset growth effect during the crisis years relative to other years. This effect is stronger in firms with small or medium stock turnover ratio and firms operating in industries with low R&D intensity. We also investigate the heterogeneity across countries and find that a stronger asset growth effect during the crisis years exists only for emerging markets with low protection of shareholders and creditors. We argue that this evidence is in line with the mispricing hypothesis.     

The Role of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Middle-Income Countries

We examine the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in middle-income countries (MICs) based on cross-country panel data for the period of 1975–2014. We find that TFP growth contributed significantly to a country’s upward transition from middle-income to high-income country group. The TFP growth model reveals that the catch-up effect, human capital, smaller population, weak currency, and research and development growth are significant sources of TFP growth. We do not find a systematic difference in the TFP growth models for MICs. In analyzing the role of factors influencing TFP growth at different income stages, strengthening innovative activities and building innovative capacities are important in overcoming the challenges that MICs face when transitioning to the high-income group. Governments of upper MICs need to initiate reform to motivate innovation by optimizing national R&D systems, and redesigning the educational system to target promoting innovation.     

Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state‐level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one‐third over the next century.     

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis and the Role of External and Internal Factors in Emerging Economies

This article assesses the impact of trade, capital openness and institutions on emerging economies’ output loss during the “Great Recession.” The fixed-effect estimates of an unbalanced panel of 122 emerging countries observed from 2008 to 2010 yield three main results. First, trade openness has exacerbated output loss. Second, capital openness can help mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, but this is conditional on the level of financial development. Finally, the results also point out that the interrelations between financial and institutional development affect the crisis’s severity.     

国际贸易、全球化及全球价值链对就业和工资水平的可能影响

国际贸易是推动就业、提高工资、促进收入分配的众多因素之一,对一国经济发展来说具有净积极影响.随着国际贸易和国际投资的快速增长,经济全球化进程不断加快,全球价值链发展不断向前推进.一方面,可以创造高效率、高收益和高增长;另一方面,也对一国经济或某个行业带来一定的扰动,增加风险隐患,需要政府运用财政政策或者货币政策来促进经济增长,并对国际贸易中受损者给予一定的补偿.     

Effects of Private Ownership,Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment on Labor Productivity Growth in Transition Economies: Evidence from the Croatian Manufacturing Industry

In this study, we investigate the determinants of labor productivity dynamics in transition economies using data from Croatian manufacturing industries. Capital intensity growth and human capital accumulation have been significant contributors to stronger productivity gains. Private-sector development has positively affected productivity growth—but mostly through the increasing role of new private companies. Still, unfinished privatization represents a significant obstacle to stronger productivity gains. The effect of increasing trade openness is significant but negative, most likely owing to weak export competitiveness of Croatian companies. Neither greenfield nor (predominant) brownfield foreign direct investment inflows have contributed to higher labor productivity growth. Further privatization and structural reforms seem to be the most promising policy measures that need to be undertaken in order to achieve higher productivity gains.     

基于生命周期的集群嵌入全球价值链模式研究

集群生命周期、嵌入模式与集群升级三者之间存在密切联系,集群生命周期影响嵌入模式的选择,而嵌入模式又决定集群嵌入全球价值链的升级效果。通过产业集群嵌入全球价值链模式权变选择模型的构建和实证检验,结果表明:随着集群生命周期从诞生到衰退阶段演进,嵌入模式将经历从贴牌生产、互利合作、交钥匙工程、出口、被并购的一个转换过程;当集群嵌入模式类型的选择与集群生命周期的作用规律一致时能促使集群实现有效升级。     

Dynamic Effects of Financial Openness on Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

This paper examines the dynamic effects of financial integration and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and macroeconomic uncertainty. Using the pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag approach to annual data over 1975-2007 for ninety developing countries, we find that financial integration contributes to faster economic growth and lower growth uncertainty in the long run. The evidence also shows considerable heterogeneity in the short run. In addition, we find that FDI impedes output growth but mitigates uncertainty in output and consumption growth in the long run. In the short run, FDI has an average negative effect on growth and negligible effect on growth uncertainty, but there are large cross-country differences in response to FDI integration.     

城市增长、土地增值与城市政策

中国城市化水平的不断提高,带来了城市经济的繁荣和城市规模的拓展。城市增长最直观的结果就是城市土地实现增值。城市增长在本文主要界定为城市规模或城市空间的扩张、拓展。本文首先利用相关理论模型,从动态角度分析城市增长过程中土地价值的变化规律,然后在分析我国城市增长的空间特征和城市土地增值收益分配现状的基础上,提出实现土地合理开发利用,重构土地增值收益分配格局的政策建议。     

如何提高美国的长期经济增长率

目前美国经济面临两个方面的挑战：一是经济复苏之路曲折艰难;二是实际经济增长率低于潜在经济增长率。短期来看,要推动美国经济快速复苏并提高就业水平,一方面应当永久性地降低税率、大幅降低政府债务水平;另一方面,应当推出基础设施建设支出规划。长期内,应通过增加劳动力供给、提升劳动力素质、提高资本积累速度和质量来提升长期经济增长率。     

中国银行业结构变迁与经济增长的实证研究

何种金融结构更有利于经济增长是一个在理论上存在巨大分歧的问题,中国经济为经验验证金融结构对经济增长的影响提供了一个非常理想的样本。本文以1995～2006年中国29个省级单位的经验数据为样本,采用Difference GMM和System GMM动态面板回归估计方法系统地检验了中国的银行集中度对经济增长及其两个组成部分(TFP增长和资本积累)的影响,得出的主要结论是,中国金融中介整体规模的扩张实际上并未对经济增长贡献更多,在这个环境下,中国当前较高的银行集中度是阻碍了经济增长,这主要表现为较高的银行集中度抑制了劳均资本的积累,其对TFP增长的影响在统计上却是不显著的。     

中国财政改革与经济增长实践

基于内生增长理论分析改革开放后历次财政变革与经济增长关系,并利用协整与回归分析检验该关系.结果表明:中国财政与经济增长具有长期稳定关系;前期财政变革强调财政激励效应,为中国市场经济奠定了制度基础;后期财政变革强调稳态增长效应,这使中央财政需有稳定财源,以保证其外部性生产要素充分供给;相比于地方财政的收敛增长效应,中央财政体现出稳态增长效应.     

中国经济增长、汇率变动与对外贸易关系的实证研究

本文利用时间序列分析方法,考察了1978-2004年中国经济增长、汇率变动与对外贸易的关系。实证结果表明,经济增长是对外贸易的核心影响因素;无论是名义汇率还是实际汇率,都不是对外贸易的重要影响因素。事实上,中国的贸易顺差来源于中国得天独厚的成本优势以及美国对中国不当的贸易政策。因而,要解决中美之间贸易失衡问题,美国必须调整国内的经济政策和对中国的贸易政策。     

Institutional Quality,Trade Openness,and Financial Sector Development in Asia: An Empirical Investigation

We examine the determinants of financial sector development in Asia and the Pacific from 1995 to 2011. In terms of economic growth, over the last twenty years the region has outperformed other parts of the world and has also experienced major developments in its traditionally bank-dominated financial system since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We apply the dynamic generalized method of moments to a panel data set of twenty-six economies in the region. The estimations were done for the whole panel as well as for subpanels of developed and developing economies. We find that better governance and institutional quality foster financial sector development in developing economies while economic growth and trade openness are key determinants of financial depth in developed economies.     

The Role of Product-Level Dynamics in Export Growth and Productivity: Evidence from Estonia

Recent empirical studies of international trade have stressed that firm-level decisions about the number of export products or markets are an important margin of adjustment in response to globalization and changes in economic conditions. We investigate how decisions about the export product mix are associated with aggregate export dynamics and productivity of firms. We use detailed data on product and export market levels for the full population of Estonia's firms. Decomposition analysis of trade flows shows that both the relative importance of firms' beginning to export products and the role of product-level churning (firms' adding and dropping of products) in total Estonian export growth increases significantly after accession to the European Union in 2004. We show that concentration on core competence products has a rather different association with productivity of firms in different-size groups. Large firms with a large number of different types of export products gain, on average, in terms of productivity from concentrating their export sales on their core export products. There is no such general regularity in the case of small firms.     

The Dynamic Extreme Co-Movement between Chinese Stock Market and Global Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

We use time-varying Symmetrized Joe-Clayton Copula model to study the extreme co-movement (boom or crash together) between the Chinese stock market and major stock markets in the world from 2007 to 2017, including developed markets and stock markets on “Belt and Road Initiative” (hereafter B.R.I.). We find that the extreme co-movement probability between Chinese market and “Belt and Road Initiative” markets is higher than developed markets at both tails. Then we study important “real” and “non-fundamental” factors affecting the excess co-movement probability, including bilateral trade openness, financial integration, and economic policy uncertainty. The results of panel regression analysis show that: the bilateral financial integration has significant effects over the lower tail dependence between Chinese and developed markets, but does not affect the extreme co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets. And the bilateral trade openness is an important factor for the extreme co-movement at both tail between Chinese and global markets. The economic policy uncertainty index, especially China’s economic policy uncertainty, plays a key role in the extreme co-movement between Chinese and developed markets at both tails. However, it has sizable effects only at the upper tail co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets.