Search Frictions,Financial Frictions,and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets

This article examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of labor input in the context of a business cycle model with a financial friction. We document significant variation in the hours worked per worker for many emerging-market economies using manufacturing data. Both employment and hours worked per worker are positively correlated with each other and with output. We show that a search-theoretic context in a small open-economy model requires a small wealth effect to explain these regularities at the expense of a smaller wage response. On the other hand, introducing a financial friction in the form of a working capital requirement can explain the observed movements of labor market variables such as employment and hours worked per worker, as well as other distinguishable business cycle characteristics of emerging economies. These include highly volatile and cyclical real wages, labor share, and consumption.     

Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyse the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short-run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble appreciation was the main driver of the de-dollarization that occurred then and of the later episode of renewed dollarization. We estimate the overall (and sectoral) currency mismatches of the Russian economy. Evidence is presented for the significant currency risk vulnerability of the non-banking private sector.     

Financial Integration of Large- and Small-Cap Stocks in Emerging Markets

This study examines the financial integration of large- and small-cap stocks in twenty-three emerging markets to determine their degree of market integration with the world market. The international asset pricing model cannot be rejected for most large-cap stock portfolios, but it is rejected for small-cap stock portfolios. The findings also demonstrate that super-large-cap stocks have the fewest pricing errors and their global financial integration has increased in recent years. In sum, the empirical results indicate that global market integration is primarily associated with the super-large-cap stocks of large emerging markets.     

Financial regulation: rising to the challenge

This paper discusses major initiatives from regulation in global financial markets in response to the current crisis. From the perspective of emerging markets a few issues of significance may include: whether shortcomings in innovations in structured financial market products will limit the scope of their development in the emerging markets, and restrict the scope of financial growth? Could more flows be expected to emerging markets from Western banking centres looking for productive opportunities? Are there opportunities for emerging markets finance to invest in good companies with strong balance sheets that are available at relatively cheap valuations. Will the Middle East emerge as a power centre in global finance?     

International Evidence on Risk Taking by Banks Around the Global Financial Crisis

This study models the risks of commercial banks from the United States and developed, emerging, and frontier countries while controlling for bank- and country-specific variables within a panel framework. Bank risk is measured by both the traditional Z-score and a composite bank risk index proposed by the authors. The findings suggest that even though the riskiness of all banks from different country groups increased following the financial crisis, the magnitude of the change is not the same across groups. During the post-crisis period, banks in developed, emerging, and frontier countries experienced a smaller increase in their risk compared to their counterparts in the United States. This article provides support for the claim that banks in emerging and frontier countries have experienced the effects of the financial crisis to a lesser extent compared to those in the United States.     

金融危机冲击下的人民币贸易结算与人民币国际化

人民币贸易结算有利于缓解全球金融危机对中国经济尤其是对外贸易的冲击。但是,人民币贸易结算更重要更深远的意义在于它启动了人民币国际化的进程。改革开放30年的巨大成就为人民币国际化奠定了坚实的经济基础,中国经济高度的外向性和人民币良好的国际信誉确立了人民币国际化的外部条件,全球金融危机给人民币国际化打开了有利的时间窗口。因此,要抓住全球金融危机提供的机遇,利用人民币贸易结算试点,推进人民币国际化进程。     

新兴市场金融脆弱性:基于国际资本易变性的分析

随着国际资本流动规模的日益庞大,其易变性的破坏力也越来越大,而且在新兴市场国家表现得尤为强烈,这加剧了新兴市场国家金融脆弱性。国际资本易变性从冲击货币稳定、影响国际收支的可维持性以及国际游资对金融市场的高度投机三个方面加剧了新兴市场金融脆弱性。它在新兴市场表现尤为强烈的原因在于新兴市场的不稳定性和不成熟性。     

金融危机后中国的出口稳定性及贸易环境研究

金融危机导致世界贸易大幅下降,中国对外贸易同样受到严重冲击.当前主要发达国家财政风险较大,各国金融体系受损尚未完全修复,贸易保护主义盛行,人民币升值压力加大,中国面临着复杂的对外贸易环境.在这样的背景下,应审慎对待汇率波动、资本泡沫等可能导致经济不稳定的因素,加强监管,提早防范,积极面对来自发达国家和发展中国家的贸易摩擦;更重要的是加快产业结构升级,争取产业产品的定价权,保证经济的持续稳定增长.     

金融科技对金融体系结构的影响研究

依据2011—2020年31个省级的面板数据,运用固定效应模型、调节效应模型以及中介效应模型,考量金融科技对中国金融体系结构的影响效应及其机制。结果显示：金融科技发展对金融体系结构的影响显著,其中支付创新、贷款可获性和数字化程度促进了金融市场规模发展,金融科技使用深度、贷款可获性以及数字化程度对银行体系规模的影响显著;金融科技的影响具有区域异质性,经济发展作为一种“门槛变量”增强了金融科技对金融体系结构的影响;居民消费对金融科技的影响具有中介效应,消费者和投资者的理财观念或消费习惯变化改变了资金流向,进而影响了中国金融体系结构的发展,失业率降低和人力资本水平提升有助于加强金融科技对金融体系结构的影响效应。     

Price Limits and Margin Requirements in Futures Markets

This paper investigates the hypothesis that futures exchanges could use daily price limits as a substitute for higher margin requirements. The empirical results show that the size of margin is negatively correlated with the presence of price limits. Evidence points to the portfolio adjustment costs theory as an explanation of the benefits from price limits. The empirical results cast doubt on the notion that price limits should be abolished. The results also confirm that exchanges have set margin requirements according to economic theories.     

金融危机后中国贸易政策中性化面临的挑战与对策

2007年商务部首次提出要改变传统的出口业绩导向,实行更“中性”的贸易政策,这表明我国的贸易政策将面临一次意义深远的调整。这次改革将面临层出不穷的贸易保护主义、变幻莫测的国际金融市场、交替反复的全球通胀通缩、失衡失调的国际经济体系以及无序不公的国际市场竞争等一系列的挑战。因此,我们在坚持贸易政策自由化方向改革的过程中,要审时度势,不仅要保持贸易政策调整的灵活性、有效性、平等性、针对性及多元性,而且还要力求政策的连贯性与稳定性,维护并实现我国国家利益的最大化。     

Returns,Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature,Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia

We investigate returns, volatilities, and correlations across mature, dominant regional, and frontier equity markets. Standard & Poor's 500 is chosen as a mature equity market; India is chosen as a dominant regional market; and Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are chosen as frontier markets. Our empirical tests show that the frontier markets remain fundamentally decoupled from the mature markets during normal market periods. During turbulent times, the contagion effects from the mature to the frontier markets become more pronounced. The results suggest that the dominant regional market plays a key role in disseminating shocks across the frontier markets during normal periods; during the turbulent recent financial crisis period, a similar contagion is not observed.     

数字金融发展对老年家庭金融健康的影响研究

基于宏微观匹配数据,从多维数字鸿沟视角实证检验数字金融发展对老年家庭金融健康的影响程度及其微观作用机制。结果显示：老年家庭金融健康水平整体呈现“东部高中西部低、城镇地区高农村地区低”的分布特征;数字金融发展能够有效促进老年家庭金融健康;作用机制在于数字金融发展能够缓解融资约束、优化风险识别能力,并提高金融操作便利性。进一步分析表明,数字金融发展还表现出一定的普惠性特征,但尚未打破空间限制,仅对城镇等互联网发达地区及人力资本水平较高的非贫困家庭的金融健康水平产生了更显著的作用,充分体现了破除老年数字鸿沟的紧迫性。     

中国金融发展与服务贸易关系的实证研究:1982-2007

服务贸易正成为全球经济竞争的重点。本文分析了金融和贸易的相互影响机制,运用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法,研究了我国金融发展和服务贸易的关系,结论表明:二者间存在长期均衡的稳定关系,金融发展效率对服务贸易的发展起到了促进作用;仅服务贸易是金融发展的Granger原因。最后从金融支持产业结构升级的角度,提出金融发展促进服务贸易的政策建议。     

金融发展、对外贸易与中国就业增长——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

金融发展与对外贸易对一国就业增长有着深远的影响。本文利用1997—2009年中国31个省的面板数据,实证检验了金融发展、对外贸易及二者之间的交互效应对就业增长的影响。     

关于创建大连保税区离岸金融市场的研究

离岸金融业务是适应国际金融高度发展的需要,通过金融创新而迅速发展的一项新业务,它为国际金融活动开拓了新的空间,并带来了巨大的活力,因而开办离岸金融业务将成为我国商业银行重要的新业务领域,而建立我国自己的离岸金融市场更是推动我国银行跨国经营的现实途径。创建大连保税区离岸金融市场,把大连建成区域性国际金融中心,将为我国建立自己的离岸金融市场起到推动作用。     

Global integration and emerging stock market excess returns

This article studies the effects of the global integration process on emerging stock market excess returns in a dynamic context. I improve the existing literature in four main directions. First, I show that the average excess returns rise as the level of financial and real integration rises. Second, I find overwhelming evidence that the financial liberalizations (i.e. de jure integration) of the late 1980s and early 1990s have not been simultaneously accompanied by a de facto integration. Third, I find that the percentage of variation in emerging excess returns explained by non-traded global risk factors rises as the level of market openness rises. Last, at the country level, I show that the correlation coefficient does not represent a robust measure of integration. Results also suggest that there are substantial cross-country differences in the dynamics of the degree of financial integration.     

Trade credit in Europe: Financial constraint and substitution effect in crisis times

This paper aims to prove whether financial rationing condition leads European enterprises to increase trade debt during the period 2008–2016 and whether companies offering deferred payments to customers obtain trade debt from suppliers. The work contributes to the existing literature by finding new empirical evidence on the substitution and matching hypotheses in times of crises, measuring the specific rationing conditions for businesses and distinguishing large, medium, small and micro-sized companies. The results revealed that, in times of crisis, medium, small and micro firms, highly likely to be constrained, employ trade credit more extensively, as those granting deferred payment terms.     

Impression Management in Letters to Shareholders: Evidence from Poland

We study impression management in an emerging market setting with high ownership concentration. Using content analysis, we identify impression management techniques in a sample of letters to shareholders written in the Polish language by the 60 largest companies listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2008 and 2013. We find patterns in the occurrence of these techniques with the use of k-means clustering: the largest cluster includes letters that praise the management, while the rest include defensive arguments, discussions of negative outcomes and short, formal letters. The more concentrated ownership is, the shorter the letters are, which indicates that management invest less effort in communicating with investors. This is particularly visible in companies held by insiders, which tend to produce short, formal letters, devoid of impression management. In contrast, companies controlled by foreign shareholders prepare letters that are longer and which are more likely to present defensive arguments, while institutional non-controlling shareholders favour extensive disclosure. The results shed light upon communication practices in Central and Eastern Europe, and offer implications for regulators and managers that may help strengthen the information environment in regional stock markets.     

我国服务贸易与经济发展——基于行业面板数据的分析

本文利用1997年到2006年8个服务贸易行业的面板数据,通过分析我国服务贸易进出口与经济发展之间的关系,肯定了我国入世后服务贸易进出口快速发展的同时,发现服务贸易进口对经济发展的促进作用要大于服务贸易出口。从行业结构上还发现我国目前占我国服务贸易进出口过半的传统服务贸易行业对经济发展的促进作用偏低而相对份额较少的新兴服务贸易行业,也就是资本知识密集服务行业对经济发展的促进作用较大。另外国际文化服务贸易对我国经济发展具有较强推动作用,我国应该进一步重视国际文化服务贸易的发展,增强中华文化的国际影响力。