Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage,business and consumer loan portfolios

This paper uses dynamic panel data methods to examine the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Greek banking sector, separately for each loan category (consumer loans, business loans and mortgages). The study is motivated by the hypothesis that both macroeconomic and bank-specific variables have an effect on loan quality and that these effects vary between different loan categories. The results show that, for all loan categories, NPLs in the Greek banking system can be explained mainly by macroeconomic variables (GDP, unemployment, interest rates, public debt) and management quality. Differences in the quantitative impact of macroeconomic factors among loan categories are evident, with non-performing mortgages being the least responsive to changes in the macroeconomic conditions.     

Do capital buffers matter? Evidence from the stocks and flows of nonperforming loans

This paper investigates the determinants of the stocks and flows (both in- and outflows) of nonperforming loans (NPLs) by considering a bank-specific factor that is not adequately analysed in the literature, namely, bank capital buffers. Using unbalanced panel data with 6,087 bank-year observations for the 2006–2018 period and a two-step system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, we find that banks with higher levels of capital buffers (both in terms of Tier 1 and total capital) have fewer NPL stocks and generate fewer NPL inflows. When we control for the characteristics of the loan portfolio, real guarantees collected by the bank increase the stocks and flows of new, impaired loans, while personal guarantees favour the outflow of bad loans.     

Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes

This paper studies the links between of financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes controlling for several macroeconomic and fiscal variables in 20 OECD countries. We focus our attention on aggregate capital adequacy, asset quality and bank profitability indicators compiled by the IMF. Our key findings suggest that in times of severe financial crisis regulatory capital to risk weighted assets is increased (by about 0.5–0.6 % points; p.p.) to abide by regulatory and supervisory demands, non performing loans (NPLs) to total loans increase dramatically (by about 0.5–0.6 p.p.), but loan loss provisions lag behind NPLs (they fall by about 12.3–18.8 p.p.) and profitability deteriorates dramatically (returns on assets (equity) fall by about 0.3–0.4 (5.0–7.0) p.p.).     

Non-executive ownership and private loan pricing

This paper examines the link between non-executive employee ownership and the terms and pricing of corporate loans. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in employee stock ownership is associated with 1.67% decrease in loan spreads and one fewer restrictive loan covenant. The negative effect of employee stock ownership on loan spreads remains significant when we use within-firm variation and perform an analysis with instrumental variables based on demographic characteristics to address the concerns of endogeneity. Further analysis reveals that employee stock ownership may affect loan spreads by improving corporate governance, curbing managerial risk-taking, reducing information asymmetry, and improving employee retention. In contrast, we find that employee ownership via stock options is associated with greater loan spreads, perhaps owing to their convex payoff structure. Overall, our results underscore the importance of the level and structure of employee ownership for pricing corporate loans.     

Non-performing loans,moral hazard and regulation of the Chinese commercial banking system

Non-performing loans (NPLs) represent a major obstacle to the development of banking sector. One of the key objectives of the banking sector reforms in China has therefore been to reduce the high level of NPLs. To do so, Chinese regulatory authorities have injected significant capital into the banking system and scrutinized NPLs since 2003. This paper examines the impact of NPLs on bank behavior in China. Using a threshold panel regression model and a dataset covering 60 city commercial banks, 16 state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, and 11 rural commercial banks during 2006–2012, we test whether lending decisions of Chinese banks exhibit moral hazard. The results support the moral hazard hypothesis, suggesting that an increase in the NPLs ratio raises riskier lending, potentially causing further deterioration of the loan quality and financial system instability. Policy implications of findings are evaluated.     

Board quality and the cost of debt capital: The case of bank loans

We analyze the relation between comprehensive measures of board quality and the cost as well as the non-price terms of bank loans. We show that firms that have higher quality boards with a greater advisory presence borrow at lower interest rates. This relation exists even after controlling for ownership structure, CEO compensation policy, and shareholder protection, as well as the size and financial characteristics of the borrower and of the loan. We also show evidence that board quality and other governance characteristics influence the likelihood that loans have covenant requirements, but the relations differ by covenant type. When we combine the direct and indirect costs of bank loans we find that firms with large, independent, experienced, and diverse boards and lower institutional ownership borrow more cheaply. Overall, the evidence indicates that board quality impacts the cost of bank debt.     

Credit rationing and non-price loan terms: A re-examination

This paper develops the implications of heterogeneous bank loans for borrower and lender behaviour in a competitive bank loan market by considering the own funds-loan ratio as the ‘non-price’ loan term. It is shown that in equilibrium each bank will ration its loan to borrowers by providing them with the smaller loan and requiring the higher own funds-loan ration than they would desire at the equilibrium loan rate. Moreover, restrictive monetary policy that raises the opportunity cost of granting loans decreases the loan size and increases the own funds-loan ratio, but its effect on the loan rate and credit rationing remains ambiguous. Thus credit rationing may decrease as a result of restrictive monetary policy.     

TARP funds distribution and bank loan supply

This paper investigates the determinants of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds distribution to banks and the stimulus effect of TARP investments on credit supply in the economy. Using banks’ political and regulatory connections as instruments, this paper finds that TARP investments increased bank loan supply by an annualized rate of 6.36% for banks with below median Tier 1 capital ratios. This increase is found in all major types of loans and can be translated into $404 billion of additional loans for all TARP banks. On average, TARP banks employed about one-third of their TARP capital to support new loans and kept the rest to strengthen their balance sheets. Furthermore, there is little evidence that loans made by TARP banks had lower quality than those by non-TARP banks. In sum, this paper shows a positive stimulus effect of TARP on credit supply during the 2008–2009 financial crisis.     

Market power in CEE banking sectors and the impact of the global financial crisis

The aim of this study is to undertake an up-to-date assessment of market power in Central and Eastern European banking markets and explore how the global financial crisis has affected market power and what has been the impact of foreign ownership. Three main results emerge. First, while there is some convergence in country-level market power during the pre-crisis period, the onset of the global crisis has put an end to this process. Second, bank-level market power appears to vary significantly with respect to ownership characteristics. Third, asset quality and capitalization affect differently the margins in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods. While in the pre-crisis period the impacts are similar for all banks regardless of ownership status, in the crisis period non-performing loans have a negative effect and capitalization a positive effect only for domestically-owned banks.     

产业政策与信贷资金配置效率

基于上市公司逐笔银行贷款合约数据,本文考察了产业政策对信贷资金配置效率的影响。研究发现,当上市公司处于国家产业政策支持的行业时,公司所拥有的政企关系对银行贷款合约制定的积极作用会更大,全要素生产率对银行贷款合约制定的积极作用会更小,基于分省产业政策以及上市公司全部贷款数据的分析进一步确认了上述结论。从影响因素来看,当上市公司为国有企业、所在省份固定资产投资增速越高、法治环境越差时,产业政策的影响会越明显。本文的证据表明,通过加强法治建设、为不同所有制企业提供公平的竞争环境、改善产业政策的制定与实施,能够提升产业政策指导下的信贷资金配置效率。     

银行损失、资本缓冲与货币政策效果

基于中国银行业1998-2010年面板数据,本文检验银行的损失对贷款供给的影响,并分析资本缓冲(buffer)和货币政策态势(stance)在这种影响中的作用,以进一步考察货币政策效果。经验结果表明:银行损失会导致贷款供给减少,这种影响在银行资本缓冲较少或货币政策紧缩时更明显,在危机时期这种影响也更明显;当资本缓冲较高时,货币政策紧缩使得贷款增长下降较多;货币政策对维护银行业稳定具有重要的作用。     

Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe

This paper examines the impact of bank ownership on credit growth in developing countries before and during the 2008–2009 crisis. Using bank-level data for countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America, we analyze the growth of banks’ total gross loans as well as the growth of corporate, consumer, and residential mortgage loans. While domestic private banks in Eastern Europe and Latin America contracted their loan growth rates during the crisis, there are notable differences in foreign and government-owned bank credit growth across regions. In Eastern Europe, foreign bank total lending fell by more than domestic private bank credit. These results are primarily driven by reductions in corporate loans. Furthermore, government-owned banks in Eastern Europe did not act counter-cyclically. The opposite is true in Latin America, where the growth of government-owned banks’ corporate and consumer loans during the crisis exceeded that of domestic and foreign banks. Contrary to the case of foreign banks in Eastern Europe, those in Latin America did not fuel loan growth prior to the crisis. Also, there are less pronounced and robust differences in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks during the crisis in Latin America.     

The voluntary adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards and loan contracting around the world

Using a sample of non-U.S. borrowers from 40 countries during 1997 through 2005, this paper investigates the effect of the voluntary adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on price and nonprice terms of loan contracts and loan ownership structure in the international loan market. Our results reveal the following. First, banks charge lower loan rates to IFRS adopters than to non-adopters. The difference in loan rates in excess of a benchmark rate between the two groups is about 20 basis points for all loans and nearly 31 basis points for London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR)-based loans. Second, banks impose more favorable nonprice terms on IFRS adopters, particularly less restrictive covenants. We also provide evidence suggesting that banks are more willing to extend credit to IFRS adopters through larger loans and longer maturities. Finally, IFRS adopters attract significantly more foreign lenders participating in loan syndicates than non-adopters.     

疫情对企业融资的影响研究--来自银团贷款市场的经验证据

新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,引发市场对企业经营、融资等问题的担忧。为进一步做好金融支持疫情防控工作、维护疫情期间金融市场稳定,本文通过研究历史视角下疫情对企业融资的影响机制,提出疫情防控期间金融支持相关的政策建议。本文利用1990-2018年汤森路透Dealscan数据库公布的企业银团贷款数据和手工收集全球重大疫情数据,实证研究了疫情对企业银团贷款的影响机制。研究发现:疫情发生后,企业银团贷款利率和贷款额度均显著增加,而银团贷款期限没有表现出显著变化。在考虑不同期限疫情观测时间窗和政策利率的滞后性影响等因素后,该结论依然成立。疫情对企业银团贷款的影响渠道包括避险情绪和融资流动性等。进一步研究发现,疫情期间政策利率调控效果有限,不同国家和地区的企业融资受疫情的影响存在差异。基于此,本文认为金融监管部门应进一步加大对企业信贷利率支持力度,完善货币政策有效性评估及动态调整机制,及时疏通货币政策传导,约谈恶意抬高信贷利率的金融机构,同时强化与财政、产业等政策的协调机制,合力支持疫情防控,维护经济金融稳定。     

浅析新形势下商业银行不良资产化解之道

数据显示,全国银行业不良贷款增量仍然较大,且信贷风险呈现“区域集聚、行业集群”的特点。如何处置与化解历史不良贷款成为各商业银行亟需解决的一个重大问题。本文从目前商业银行对不良贷款的处置方式,提出国内商业银行应更加重视不良贷款管理,实现不良贷款管理模式、体制机制的优化。     

公司治理与银行借款融资

本文以中国深沪两市A股上市公司为样本,检验了公司治理在银行信贷决策中的作用。通过检验公司治理水平对企业银行借款融资能力和融资成本的影响,我们发现,企业银行借款融资能力方面,无论长期借款还是短期借款,公司治理因素对企业银行借款融资能力均没有影响,银行更看重企业的经营状况。企业银行借款融资成本方面,我们发现公司治理机制中只有监事会特征和股权集中度对企业银行借款融资成本有显著影响。具体地,监事会规模越大,融资成本越低;股权集中度越高,融资成本越高。本文结果说明公司治理因素在我国银行放贷决策中的作用有限。     

经济政策不确定性与企业贷款成本

基于大样本微观银行信贷数据,本文研究经济政策不确定性对企业的银行贷款成本的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性升高导致企业的银行贷款成本增加,且使得在中小型银行贷款的企业成本增加更多。异质性分析表明,经济政策不确定性升高对受政策因素影响较大的企业如小微企业、私营企业等的银行贷款成本的影响更为明显。进一步,对企业的银行贷款违约风险的研究发现,随着经济政策不确定性升高,企业的银行贷款违约风险反而降低。这表明,经济政策不确定性升高使得银行选择风险评级更低的贷款,符合谨慎性动机。本文研究结论表明,经济政策不确定性升高时,银行“自我保险”动机的增强使得企业的银行贷款成本增加,这在中小型银行中表现得更加明显,同时也更多地转嫁给中小企业。本文为经济政策不确定性对企业投资、宏观经济波动等的研究提供了微观解释机制,并揭示了政府经济政策的一致性、稳定性对维护金融稳定的重要作用。     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。     

What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?

This paper uses loan application-level data from a peer-to-peer lending platform to study the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. By employing a direct ex-ante measure of risk-taking and estimating the simultaneous equations of loan approval and loan amount, we provide evidence of monetary policy's impact on a nonbank financial institution's risk-taking. We find that the search-for-yield is the main driving force of the risk-taking effect, while we do not observe consistent findings of risk-shifting from the liquidity change. Monetary policy easing is associated with a higher probability of granting loans to risky borrowers and greater riskiness of credit allocation. However, these changes do not necessarily relate to a larger loan amount on average.     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。