金融发展的减贫效应研究——基于省级面板数据的分析

本文利用1997～2012年我国30个省市的面板数据,对金融发展与贫困减缓之间的关系进行了实证研究.实证结果表明,金融发展除了可以通过经济增长和收入分配渠道对贫困减缓产生间接的作用,其本身可以通过金融服务等渠道产生直接的减贫效应.但由于初始资本和金融成本等的限制,金融发展与贫困减缓之间存在显著的倒U型关系,即存在先恶化后改善的效应.     

金融减贫效应的门槛特征分析及实证检验

由于受金融市场进入成本以及穷人初始财富不足的限制,金融发展对贫困减缓的影响往往会表现出门槛特征。本文利用1997—2012年我国30个省市的面板数据,以经济发展水平作为门槛变量,对金融发展与贫困减缓之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明：在不同的经济发展水平下,金融发展减缓贫困的作用存在显著的差异。只有当经济发展水平越过相应的门槛、穷人达到一定的资本积累后,金融发展才对贫困减缓具有显著的正向效应。这也进一步说明,只有实现金融与经济的协调发展才能更好地发挥金融发展的减贫效应。     

Microfinance and Poverty: Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh

Microfinance supports mainly informal activities that oftenhave a low return and low market demand. It may therefore behypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of microfinanceis modest or even nonexistent. If true, the poverty impact ofmicrofinance observed at the participant level represents eitherincome redistribution or short-run income generation from themicrofinance intervention. This article examines the effectsof microfinance on poverty reduction at both the participantand the aggregate levels using panel data from Bangladesh. Theresults suggest that access to microfinance contributes to povertyreduction, especially for female participants, and to overallpoverty reduction at the village level. Microfinance thus helpsnot only poor participants but also the local economy.     

The Impact of Internet-Banking on Brick and Mortar Branches: The Case of Turkey

The increased adoption and infiltration of the Internet has recently redefined the playground for retail banks. Retail banks are now offering their services primarily through their Internet banking branches. The repercussions of this change to “brick and mortar” banks have been studied in the context of developed market economies. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by studying the impact of Internet banking adoption on banks’ deposit collection, lending activities, and performance in an emerging market setting. By using a panel of 18 retail banks that operate in Turkey from 1990–2008, we demonstrate that Internet banking adoption has a positive impact on the level of profits, deposits and loans per branch. As operational activities are now provided via Internet branches, Internet banking facilitates banking activities in branches that require more human input. We also find that Internet banking adoption has a negative impact on bank profitability after 2 years of adoption as Internet banking increases competition and results in lower interest income. Accordingly, Internet banking complements brick and mortar branches.     

Determinants of the Savings and Fixed Asset Holdings of Turkish Migrants in Germany

This paper investigates the determinants of the bank savings and fixed assets of Turkish migrants residing in Germany. We find that migrants with firmer roots in Germany are more likely to hold savings and fixed assets in Germany, and those with stronger links to Turkey are more likely to hold savings and fixed assets in Turkey. As expected, income is a positive determinant of savings and fixed assets in both countries. Although age has a positive impact on savings and fixed assets in Turkey, it has a negative impact on savings in Germany. These results shed new light on Turkish migrants' short- and long-term savings in Turkey and Germany.     

小额信贷缓减农村贫困的效用研究——基于面板模型的分析

缓减贫困一直是政府面临的重要问题,也是政府经济发展的重要目标。基于2003~2011年中国26个省市的统计数据,运用面板模型定量研究农村小额信贷缓解农村贫困的效应。结果表明：小额信贷具有显著的减贫效应,其降低农村绝对贫困的程度效应要大于降低农村贫困人口相对收入短缺和收入不平等程度的效应。为了更好地发挥小额信贷缓减贫困的效应,应进一步放开小额信贷发展的约束成分,改进贫困农户贷款评级授信的方式,提高小额信贷缓减贫困的精确度。     

The Many Dimensions of Child Poverty: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study*

In this paper, we use a multidimensional framework to characterise child poverty in the UK. We examine the interdependencies amongst the different dimensions of multidimensional poverty and the relationship between multidimensional poverty and income poverty. We also explore the links between multidimensional poverty, income poverty and children's cognitive and non‐cognitive development. Our findings suggest that multidimensional poverty identifies many but not all of the same children classified using standard income poverty measures. Approximately 20 per cent of children are classified as poor on one measure but not the other. Children in workless households and ethnic minority children face the highest odds of growing up in both multidimensional poverty and income poverty. We find similar levels of persistence in multidimensional poverty and income poverty, with 17 per cent (18 per cent) of children experiencing persistent multidimensional (income) poverty and 10 per cent of children experiencing both persistent multidimensional poverty and persistent income poverty. Multidimensional poverty (both episodic and persistent) also has a detrimental impact on children's development over and above the negative impact of income poverty.     

空间视角下的普惠金融与农村减贫增收——机制探讨与实证检验

“脱贫攻坚”成为经济新常态下的重要任务,金融减贫在其中扮演了不可忽视的作用。在空间视角下分析了普惠金融对农村地区减贫增收的直接影响与空间效应,并基于2005—2017年中国省级数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证检验普惠金融的扶贫增收效果。结果发现:我国各地区间的农村扶贫增收绩效具有明显的空间联动与依赖性;普惠金融发展对本地区农村减贫具有显著的正向作用,同时存在明显的空间溢出效应。各地区应该继续加强普惠金融发展,并重视地区间普惠金融减贫合作与政策互通的深化。     

Has Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation in Georgia Helped the Poor?

This article proposes a research strategy to deal with the scarcityof data on beneficiaries for conducting impact assessments ofcommunity-level projects. Community-level panel data from aregular household survey augmented with a special communitymodule are used to measure the impact of projects. Propensityscore–matched difference-in-difference comparisons areused to control for time-invariant unobservable factors. Thismethodology takes into consideration the purposeful placementof projects and their interactions at the community level. Thisempirical approach is applied to infrastructure rehabilitationprojects—for schools, roads, and water supply systems—inrural Georgia between 1998 and 2001. The analysis produces plausibleresults regarding the size of welfare gains from a particularproject at the village level and allows for differentiationof benefits between the poor and the nonpoor. The findings ofthis study can contribute to evaluations of the impact of infrastructureinterventions on poverty by bringing new empirical evidenceto bear on the welfare and equity implications.     

医疗保险、健康异质性与精准脱贫——基于贫困脆弱性的分析

医疗保险能否有效减少贫困,尚未达成共识。本文利用CHARLS全国调查数据,基于资产度量个体的贫困脆弱性(即陷贫概率),实证分析医疗保险参保行为及其保障水平对贫困脆弱性的影响。研究表明,参与医疗保险和提高医疗保险保障水平的减贫效果都存在健康异质性,对健康状况差的群体有显著的减贫效果,而对健康状况好的群体减贫效果不显著。此外,本文证实了改善劳动供给是医疗保险减贫的重要中介渠道之一。     

新农合、灾难性医疗支出与贫困脆弱性

新农合制度在不同贫困标准下都能有效缓解农村居民贫困脆弱性,发生灾难性医疗支出时,该缓解作用随着贫困标准的提高而增强.新农合对不同收入居民的影响都很显著,灾难性医疗支出冲击下新农合对较高收入居民的影响系数大于低收入居民,存在逆向再分配.因此,我国应继续拓展新农合等医疗保障制度的可及性,减轻农村居民贫困脆弱性;加强医保对农...     

Decentralization,Economic Development,and Growth in Turkish Provinces

There have been important developments in the decentralization of the government structure in Turkey since the early 1980s. This paper examines economic development and growth in Turkish provinces. It first discusses local government reforms throughout the history of Turkey with the focus on recent reform efforts. It then empirically analyzes the effects of recent decentralization reforms in Turkish provinces using cross-sectional and panel data approaches as well as spatial econometrics. The panel data set consists of sixty-seven provinces from 1976 to 2001. Using the number of local governments per capita and number of local governments per square kilometer of land to indicate decentralization, the analysis examines whether variations in local decentralization across these provinces and across time have significantly affected economic development and growth in those provinces. The findings suggest a weak negative economic effect of decentralization through a number of municipalities per capita. However, the findings do not show any significant effect from the creation of new provinces by separation from the existing ones.     

中国财政资金扶贫绩效及其影响因素分析

本文通过构建影响扶贫绩效的理论模型,从理论上分析了财政资金扶贫绩效的影响因素,还通过实证方法研究了贫困地区的扶贫绩效及其动态演化趋势,比较了不同财政资金以及各省的扶贫绩效差异,最后还探讨了扶贫绩效的影响因素。结果发现:财政资金扶贫绩效在近些年整体上呈现出递增趋势,但扶贫绩效仍有待进一步提升,其关键在于扶贫技术进步和技术效率的提升;与其他财政资金相比,中央财政扶贫资金的扶贫绩效相对更高;不同省份的扶贫绩效和扶贫绩效增长速度差异较大,个别省份的扶贫绩效急需提高;地区经济发展可促进扶贫绩效提升,基尼系数对扶贫绩效的影响为负。本文的研究结果表明,中国应当继续坚持综合性扶贫开发工作,完善财政资金扶贫绩效考核体系,在发展经济的同时提高收入分配的公平性,以便为扶贫绩效的提升提供良好的政策环境。     

马克思反贫困理论对解决我国农村贫困问题的启示

我国是一个经济大国,但农村贫困问题依然突出。解决贫困问题是构建社会主义现代化强国的关键。研究发现当前我国的农村贫困存在连片贫困、西部集中化的特征。我国农村贫困的根源是自然资源禀赋缺陷、农村经济发展落后、财政对农村经济建设及公共事业投入不足、农村文化落后和文化贫困、农村弱势群体交换权利与社会权利贫困。马克思的社会帮扶贫困解决论、社会地位贫困影响论等反贫困理论对指导我国制定反贫困政策具有重要启示:(1)政府应着力帮助我国农村摆脱贫困;(2)政府要赋予西部农村居民更多的社会权利和发展权利。     

The Internet and poverty in developing countries: Welfare economics versus a functionings-based approach

There are many reasons why the impact of the Internet on poverty in developing countries is poorly understood. Not the least of these reasons has to do with alternative modes of thinking about the issue. In this paper, we examine the theories of consumption underlying two important evaluative frameworks, namely, traditional welfare economics on the one hand and Sen's notion of functionings on the other. Using a number of actual examples, we find that in at least two major respects, the former approach is far too limiting and needs to be replaced by the latter (which, in particular, focuses on the actual use that is made of the Internet and embraces, rather than excludes, disciplines other than economics). The functionings approach has a close affinity with ethnographic research, which, as we tried to show, reveals much about the less visible impact of the Internet on poverty.     

行业标准化对中国进出口贸易的影响研究

以1993~2008年中国钢铁、煤炭、服装、食品加工、家电、机械制造六个行业的行业标准数目为基础,利用面板数据变截据模型分析行业标准化对进出口贸易的总体影响,通过面板数据变系数模型分析行业标准化对其进出口贸易额的影响。结果表明,我国的行业标准化对进出口贸易均存在正面影响,行业标准对钢铁、煤炭行业的进出口及对家电的出口均产生负面影响,对服装、食品加工、机械制造及家电的出口均产生正面影响。     

Finance,law and poverty: Evidence from India

Using state-level data from India over the period 1983–2005, this paper shows a strong negative relationship between financial depth (as measured by credit volume) and rural poverty. Instrumental variable regressions suggest that this relationship is robust to endogeneity biases. Furthermore, financial deepening has a bigger impact on rural poverty alleviation than outreach (as measured by branch penetration). We find suggestive evidence that financial deepening reduced poverty rates especially among self-employed in the rural areas and also supported an inter-state migration trend from rural areas into the tertiary sector in urban areas, consistent with financial deepening being driven by credit to the tertiary sector. Our findings suggest that financial deepening contributed to poverty alleviation in rural areas by fostering entrepreneurship and inducing geographic-sectoral migration.     

企业精准扶贫行为影响企业风险吗？

精准扶贫是一项国家战略,企业精准扶贫是打赢脱贫攻坚战的重要环节。本文以2016-2018年A股市场参与精准扶贫的非金融类上市公司为样本,研究精准扶贫参与水平对企业风险的影响。研究发现:(1)企业精准扶贫的参与水平越高,其股票市场风险越低;(2)企业信息透明度越低,参与精准扶贫对企业风险的降低作用越强;(3)制度环境越薄弱的地区,参与精准扶贫对企业风险的降低程度越大;(4)进一步分析发现,企业精准扶贫提高了企业声誉、资源获取能力和生产效率,降低了信息不对称,从而有助于降低企业风险。本文研究了企业精准扶贫对企业风险的影响及作用机理,经验证据表明,上市公司积极参与精准扶贫既响应国家号召,为打赢脱贫攻坚战贡献力量,又有利于降低企业风险,能够获得承担社会责任与规避风险的“双赢”结果。     

“加剧”还是“缓解”：政府转移支付与农户家庭未来减贫——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证分析

基于2018年CFPS数据和Logit模型分析政府转移支付对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响及异质性。研究表明：政府转移支付总体上对农户家庭贫困脆弱性并未产生积极的改善效果,反而进一步促进了农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加。从区域异质性看,政府转移支付对贫困脆弱性的正向促进作用主要体现在中、西部地区,并且以中部地区尤为明显。从家庭特征看,政府转移支付主要促使收入贫困农户、非融资约束农户、非土地流转农户、非组织参与农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加,并且对绝对贫困农户的促进效应要大于相对贫困农户。对非收入贫困户、土地流转户和组织参与户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。从户主特征看,政府转移支付主要对户主健康家庭、自雇户主家庭的贫困脆弱性产生正向促进效应,对稳定受雇户主家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。     

The Real Impact of Improved Access to Finance: Evidence from Mexico

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of access to finance on poverty. It highlights an important channel through which access affects poverty—the labor market. The paper exploits the opening of Banco Azteca in Mexico, a unique “natural experiment” in which over 800 bank branches opened almost simultaneously in preexisting Elektra stores. Importantly, the bank has focused on previously underserved low‐income clients. Our key finding is a sizeable effect of access to finance on labor market activity and income levels, especially among low‐income individuals and those located in areas with lower preexisting bank penetration.