中国:奥巴马面临的初次考验

《商业周刊》2009年1月12日全球经济衰退能够暴露出贸易伙伴最糟糕的一面。由于国内需求疲软,中国和美国的制造商纷纷遭遇产能过剩的问题。     

Scale effects found!

A key feature of early endogenous growth models is their prediction of scale effects – the larger the economy, as measured by population, the number of firms or employment, the faster the economy should grow. However, empirical work has failed to support the existence of scale effects. As a result, much human capital has been expended in order to ‘fix’ this problem by eliminating scale effects in endogenous growth models. We contend that econometric techniques used in the empirical search for scale effects are inconsistent with growth theory. Using data from US states and an econometric technique that better matches growth theory by allowing each economy to have its own steady state, we provide empirical support for the existence of scale effects. Results call into question the need to reformulate the first models of endogenous growth.     

到剧场去!

"空空的剧场.一个演员正在死去.遵循着艺术的法则,颈背上插着一只匕首."若干年前,美国剧作家阿瑟·米勒在《戏剧之死》中如此写道.     

No trade

We investigate a common value bilateral bargaining model with two-sided private information and no aggregate uncertainty. A seller owns an asset whose common valuation is a deterministic function of the two traders' private signals. We first establish a no-trade theorem for this environment, and proceed to study the effect of the asset valuation structure and the trading mechanism on extent to which asymmetric information induces individuals to engage in mutually unprofitable exchange. A laboratory experiment is conducted, where trade is found to occur between 19% and 35% of the time, and this depends in systematic ways on both the asset valuation function and the trading mechanism. Both buyers and sellers adapt their strategy to changes in the asset valuation function and to changes in the trading mechanism in clearly identifiable ways. An equilibrium model with naïve belief formation accounts for some of the behavioral findings, but open questions remain.