2004年我国税收与经济增长的协调关系

2004年我国税收总收入比上年增长25．7％。增收额和增长幅度均实现历史性新突破。税收收入快速增长，使国家财力进一步增强，为支持经济社会发展作出了积极贡献。但与此同时人们对税收连年超经济增长，也存在不少疑虑。本文从经济总量、产业结构角度，并运用时间序列模型等，讨论分析了税收与经济增长的协调性及关系。     

SME internationalization and performance: Growth vs. profitability

Lu and Beamish (2001) examined the effect of two internationalization strategies, exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI), on SME performance (ROA). We extend this research by examining the differential effects of these strategies on two other dimensions of SME performance: growth and ROS. We develop and test four sets of hypotheses using a sample of 164 Japanese SMEs. We find that exporting activity has a positive impact on growth, but negative impact on profitability. FDI activity has a positive relationship with growth, but a U curve relationship with profitability. Exporting activity has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between an SME’s FDI activity and firm growth, a negative moderating effect on the relationship between an SME’s FDI activity and firm profitability. An SME’s age when it starts to make FDIs has a negative moderating impact on the relationship between FDI and firm growth and profitability.     

省际贸易、国际贸易与经济增长——基于长三角制造业数据的经验分析

在描述长江三角洲制造业省际贸易和国际贸易发展的基础上,利用江苏、浙江、上海三省市2002-2007年的投入产出表,实证检验了省际贸易和国际贸易对经济增长的影响.研究结果表明:省际贸易和国际贸易都对经济增长产生了正面影响,但省际贸易的经济增长效应要大于国际贸易,而且省际贸易和国际贸易对低技术行业的经济增长效应要大于高技术行业.     

进口贸易与美国的经济增长

本文通过实证研究试图证明进口较出口更能够拉动美国的经济增长,并从生产要素的质量、进口带动出口、物价水平与投资等方面进行了简要的分析。     

Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth

There has been a long‐held belief that there is an association between economic growth and increased levels of international trade. However, more recent work has questioned this hypothesis and the re‐opening of the debate has identified two key areas of contention. One is the extent to which the effects of openness are conditional on factors omitted from the core regression relationship and hence how the hypothesis is tested. The other is the meaning and measurement of openness and liberalisation. This paper addresses both these areas by exploring the nature of heterogeneity in growth performance among liberalising countries using a difference‐in‐difference approach. The results show that, while in aggregate there appears to be a positive but small impact of trade liberalisation on growth, this masks a huge range of responses. Empirical analysis of this heterogeneity shows that a one‐size‐fits‐all policy is not necessarily the most effective, and suggests a case‐by‐case approach is more appropriate.     

Slowdown Trade Surplus Growth

According to Ma Kai＇s economic planning report submitted to the NPC session on March 5th,（Ma Kai is the Minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission）,the government has listed the slowdown in trade surplus growth and the steady expansion of external investment as major tasks for 2008.     

金融危机对美国对外贸易、贸易收支和经济增长的影响

金融危机通过对美国进口的抑制作用和对美国出口的刺激作用,改变美国的对外贸易规模和结构。金融危机对美国对外贸易的影响将首先传导到美国的贸易收支账户,收缩美国的贸易逆差。美国贸易逆差的收缩将传导到美国的国民收入账户,在一定程度上支撑美国的经济增长。所以,美国正在通过对外贸易输出金融危机。     

汇率、不确定性与贸易增长

文章基于TVP-SV-VAR模型,采用实际有效汇率、中国贸易政策不确定性、美国贸易政策不确定性以及国际地缘政治风险的月度数据,探究了它们对中国贸易增速的动态时变影响特征。此外,文章采用在险增长模型,引入相对熵概念,将实际有效汇率、中国和美国贸易政策不确定性、国际地缘政治风险纳入统一的框架中,分析了其作为贸易增长函数的条件变量,对增长风险的影响特征。结果表明:(1)实际有效汇率对中国贸易增长影响比较平稳,短期内对贸易增长具有较强的负面冲击,长期内影响较小;(2)美国贸易政策不确定性对中国贸易增长冲击力度最大,且以短期冲击为主;(3)外生冲击短期内对贸易增长的抑制作用较强,长期抑制作用较小;(4)中国贸易增长预测密度函数的分布整体右偏,在2008年国际金融危机和2018年中美贸易摩擦时期,分布依然呈现出右偏态,上升风险显著高于下行风险。     

亚洲三角贸易模式与中国的贸易增长

文章从亚洲三角贸易模式的角度出发分析了中国贸易增长的来源,并揭示了中国巨额贸易顺差的真相。研究发现,亚洲三角贸易模式夸大了中国出口和贸易顺差的规模。通过参加亚洲三角贸易模式,日本、韩国以及中国台湾等通过直接投资和产业转移,在中国建立生产和出口加工基地,从而将其对欧美的贸易顺差转移为中国对欧美的贸易顺差,扩大了中国与欧美的贸易摩擦,恶化了我国的国际贸易环境。     

加工贸易与经济增长:研究综述

加工贸易作为一种贸易方式,已经逐步成为我国对外贸易发展中的重要组成部分,与此同时,其与经济增长的关系也逐渐成为研究热点之一。本文试图对研究加工贸易与经济增长的众多理论和实证文献进行系统的梳理和评述,以期能对进一步认识加工贸易的作用及如何促进其发展提供一些帮助。     

Changing Trade Structure and its Implications for Growth

There is a long tradition in the development literature that what a country exports matters for its growth prospects. Recent work has refocused on this issue by attempting to produce numerical scores for different types of product to identify the complexity or sophistication of a country’s export basket. Based on the insight that the type of product an economy exports can have important implications for its economic performance and that goods exported predominantly by rich countries will have different characteristics from those exported by poor countries, Lall et al. (2006) put forward a means of classifying commodities based on the income levels of a product’s main exporters. At around the same time, Hausmann et al. (2006), following a similar approach, put forward a slightly different form of product classification and Rodrik (2006) applied this specifically to an analysis of China. This paper highlights the difference between the approaches and its implications for the analysis of China, which appears less ‘special’ using the approach of Lall et al. It argues that the classification of products at a disaggregate level is a helpful starting point for assessing issues of trade competitiveness and that further work using either or both forms of classification is justified.     

加工贸易与一般贸易对江西经济增长作用的比较研究

随着江西外向型经济的发展,一般贸易和加工贸易额都得到了快速扩大。利用出口弹性指标、贡献率指标以及增值率指标对比,分析加工贸易和一般贸易对江西经济增长的贡献,提出一般贸易的贡献高于加工贸易,加工贸易对经济增长的贡献还较小,但2006年后加工贸易对经济增长的作用加强。     

征收生态税:进出口贸易增长与生态危机条件下的选择

改革开放二十多年来，中国贸易在取得长足发展的同时也带来了严重的环境污染，一般认为可以通过贸易管制和征收生态税的方法解决。文章通过对这两种方法进行经济学比较后指出，解决环境问题的最佳途径是征收生态税，使环境成本内在化。     

服务贸易促进外贸增长方式转变:机理及其实现

我国数量型、粗放型的外贸增长方式难以为继,必须实现根本性转变,发展服务贸易是促进其转变的重要途径和举措.文章分析了服务贸易能够促进外贸增长方式转变的作用机理,并提出了保持货物贸易与服务贸易的互动、服务贸易进出口平衡、比较优势与创造优势相结合以及在WTO中争取自己的贸易利益等发展服务贸易的对策.     

外贸乘数与经济增长关系的变因分析

外贸乘数不是“出口乘数” ,它与包括进口在内的多种因数密切相关。要发挥外贸乘数效应 ,推动经济增长 ,必须注意增大最核心变因MPC的值。本文认为 ,斯蒂格利茨所用的外贸乘数表达式 ,比较科学地表达了各种变量的相互关系。但为了更准确地描述外贸乘数对经济增长的变因关系 ,必须对变因MPC作具体分析 ,要考虑MPI对MPC的反向激励作用。这样 ,既可以解释外贸与经济增长速度不同步的现象 ,又可以从中找到解决扩大MPC的办法。