金融发展与经济增长——基于中部地区的实证分析

文章运用中部地区1995—2008年的省际面板数据,通过固定效应模型实证分析了金融发展与经济增长的影响。研究表明,财政分权改革后,中部地区的金融发展并没有成为经济增长的推动因素,主要可归结为地方政府干预、金融结构不合理和金融效率低下等原因。要大力发展区域中小型金融机构,加强金融生态环境建设。     

Can digital financial inclusion promote China's economic growth?

Can digital financial inclusion as an emerging and innovative financial service promote economic growth? Based on a Bayesian macroeconomic analysis framework, this paper introduces the level of Internet development as a threshold variable, analyzes the impact of digital financial inclusion on economic growth based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2019 in China, and finally explores the mediating effect of digital financial inclusion on economic growth through a multiple mediation model. The results show that ① digital financial inclusion development has a significant contribution to economic growth. ② The impact of digital financial inclusion development on economic growth has a significant Internet threshold effect. ③Promoting small and medium-sized enterprise entrepreneurship and stimulating residents' consumption are two important channels through which digital financial inclusion development affects economic growth.     

国际资本异常流动对经济增长具有非线性效应吗?--基于汇率制度和金融市场发展视角

本文基于64个经济体1999-2017年的季度面板数据,采用工具变量广义矩估计(IV-GMM)方法,从汇率制度和金融市场发展视角研究国际资本异常流动对经济增长的非线性效应。研究表明,资本流动激增显著促进了经济增长,资本流动中断、外逃和撤回对经济增长具有负向影响。有弹性的汇率制度显著减弱了四种资本异常流动情形对经济增长的冲击效应;金融市场发展显著降低了激增、中断和撤回对经济增长的冲击影响,强化了外逃对经济增长的冲击效应。随着汇率制度弹性和金融发展程度变化,新兴经济体与发达经济体资本外逃对经济增长的影响呈现明显的异质性。本文结论对于各国防范国际资本异常流动风险、维护国内经济金融稳定,以及稳步有序推进汇率市场化改革和金融市场建设具有重要的参考价值。     

中国农村金融发展对农村经济的影响分析——基于AK理论的多变量误差修正模型

本文通过研究农村金融市场融资能力及信贷效率对农村经济的影响,来分析农村金融发展对中国农业经济的重要性。首先基于帕加诺内生经济增长理论选取与经济增长率相关的且能反映农村金融市场融资能力的金融指标,其次基于这些金融指标,通过误差修正模型,在统一的框架内综合分析金融市场的发展对农村经济的影响情况,并定量分析农村经济增长与信贷、投资间的互动过程。计量结论显示在长期信贷与优化的金融结构、完善的金融融资渠道能够促进农业经济增长,但中国农业经济增长不能内生吸引信贷资金。农业经济增长的长效机制在于发展高效农业,监管部门要通过指导意见改善农村金融结构与金融渠道、促进信贷支农特别是支持乡镇企业的投资,以此为基础实现农村产业与农村金融市场的良性互动。     

我国各省区市金融发展的经济增长效应分析——基于面板数据的时变趋势与区域特征分析

基于31个省区市1994-2005年的经济金融面板数据的实证分析发现.金融规模扩张、结构优化、效率提升确实有助于促进经济增长,且效率提升比规模扩张更有助于促进地区经济增长.金融发展的经济增长效应存在着区域差异,且受各省区市的地区性基础或禀赋因素的影响较大.随着金融体制改革的推进,各地区金融发展对经济发展的适应性逐步增强,但仍受到金融体制的约束,需要进一步深化改革,加快发展.为此,要充分发挥中央政府主导金融制度供给与创新、地方政府主导当地金融生态建设和市场主导金融资源配置的基础性作用,将统筹区域金融协调发展与部分省区市金融率先发展有机统一起来.     

Finance–Growth Nexus: New Insights from the West African Region

This article examines the impact of financial development on economic growth in the West African region accounting for both structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency. Although the panel data study reveals that financial development has positive impact on economic growth in the entire West African region, the disaggregated data analysis discovers that variations in financial development can only explain variations in economic growth in about 75% of the countries in West Africa. This study has succeeded in revealing the countries where finance accelerates growth and countries where it does not. The weak impact of finance on growth in some of the countries could be due to low income level, low level of financial development, weak institutions, macroeconomic instability, and high inflation rates. Knowing where finance spurs growth and where it does not is fundamental for policymaking.     

区域金融生态环境差异与经济增长效率

本文利用实证分析的方法,选取金融生态环境不同的地区样本,运用定量指标对影响金融生态环境的诸多要素进行深入对比分析,指出金融不是孤立的,它内生于经济社会的大环境之中.良好的金融生态环境能够营造"资金洼地",从而促进当地的经济增长;不良的金融生态环境,往往造成巨额的不良资产,导致金融资源的低效配置,不利于经济的发展壮大.因此,改善金融生态环境、促进经济增长,实现经济可持续发展,必须从影响金融生态环境的不同因素及不同层面上加以完善与改进,必须要发挥政府的主导作用,依靠法律的、经济的、文化的乃至全社会的共同努力培育良好的金融生态环境.     

Ready for capital account convertibility?

This paper investigates whether the impact of capital account convertibility on the long term volatility of economic growth depends on financial development. It estimates a system of three simultaneous equations: mean growth, volatility of growth and financial development. This allows for the study of both, the impact of capital account liberalization on volatility, as well as its direct impact on financial development. Results indicate that economies with low financial development fall prey to excess volatility arising from capital account openness, while capital account openness itself has a significant positive impact on financial development. The results are robust to alternative measures of financial development and volatility and to the removal of outliers.     

中国区域金融发展水平与区域经济差异的协整检验

在建立金融发展与经济增长关系的理论模型和运用泰尔指数法测度中国29个省份1978～2005年区域金融发展水平和经济增长差异的基础上,采用计量经济学中的协整检验方法,对区域金融发展水平与区域经济的差距的动态均衡关系进行研究,结果表明:两者之间存在着长期均衡关系;区域金融发展水平的差异是导致区域经济增长差异的原因。     

吉林省经济增长与金融发展的实证分析

采用1985—2010年时间序列,实证分析吉林省经济增长与金融发展规模、金融效率的关系,以及吉林省与全国经济增长差距、金融发展规模差距、金融效率差距间的关系。结果表明：吉林省金融发展规模是促进经济增长与提高金融效率的重要原因;而吉林省与全国经济增长差距、金融发展规模差距及金融效率差距虽然存在长期稳定的关系,但金融规模差距对经济增长差距的影响为负。     

Regulation,supervision and deposit insurance for financial cooperatives: an empirical investigation

This paper analyses the impact of different regulation and supervision approaches, as well as deposit insurance schemes, on the development of financial cooperatives in developing countries, using random and fixed effects estimators. Information on laws regulating financial cooperatives, the supervisory approaches adopted, and deposit insurance schemes in sixty-five developing countries were collected—mostly—from original legislations for the period 1995–2014. Key findings suggest that indicators of financial cooperative development are positively correlated with the existence of a specialized regulation; supervision under non-bank financial supervisory authorities; and the presence of deposit insurance schemes, while general cooperative society’s regulations and banking regulations are negatively correlated with financial cooperatives’ indicators. These results are robust after controlling for economic and institutional factors as well as potential endogeneity bias.     

Openness and the finance-growth nexus

Rajan and Zingales (2003) hypothesize that openness—trade and financial—is a crucial determinant of financial development. The main policy implication emerging from this hypothesis is that openness should be promoted as a means of facilitating economic growth through financial development. While subsequent research confirms that openness affects financial development, we study whether finance continues to be growth promoting as economies become increasingly open—a key implicit assumption behind the policy recommendation. Using data from 78 economies for the period 1981–2006, we find that very high levels of financial openness generally erode the growth-promoting role of financial development while high trade openness strengthens it. These worldwide findings by and large hold for subsamples of Sub-Saharan African, Latin American and OECD economies. Notable exceptions are the invariance of the finance-growth (FG) nexus on trade openness in OECD economies and the positive effect of financial openness on the FG link in Latin American economies.     

金融创新、R&D与经济增长

在Uzawa(1965)、Lucas(1988)和Jones(1995)内生增长的模型的基础上,引入金融创新部门,研究了金融创新、R&D与经济增长的关系。金融创新直接影响经济增长率,还会通过对技术创新的影响,间接地影响到经济的增长。同时,三部门人力资本分配的变动受到生产函数中参数的影响。不同的金融创新产品对R&D和经济增长的影响也有所不同。     

The impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis: Evidence from developed and developing countries

This paper investigates the impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis in 44 selected countries. A dynamic model based on endogenous growth theory is employed for the study for the period 1990–2017. We find robust evidence that the global financial crisis has distorted the link between bond market development and economic growth: before the global financial crisis, the bond market's impact on economic growth was positive; after the global financial crisis, the evidence is mixed. The main finance–growth channel by which proceeds from the bond market are eventually allocated to the most productive investments appears to be broken.     

“互联网＋”、普惠金融与经济增长-基于面板数据的PVAR模型实证检验

运用多元测算方法和主成分分析法获取我国31个地区2008-2014年“互联网+”、普惠金融和经济增长相关变量数据,借助面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)研究三类变量间的动态关系,实证研究发现:“互联网+”和普惠金融对经济增长的影响程度相当,经济增长对“互联网+”的影响较大,而对普惠金融影响相对较小.微观上看,三者之间正向作用已经存在,普惠金融对城镇化率和贸易开放度驱动的经济增长具有正向促进作用,“互联网+”对普惠金融发展、城镇化率和贸易开放度驱动的经济增长也具有正向促进作用,因此,需要各经济主体加强基础性投入、注重精准化投入并做到长期坚持以促进三者协同发展.但从长期看,普惠金融对“互联网+”和经济增长率和居民消费价格指数驱动的经济增长存在负面冲击,“互联网+”对经济增长率和居民消费价格指数驱动的经济增长也具有微弱的负面冲击,因此,需要政府层面加强统一监管并积极理顺三者之间的关系,以消除其中的摩擦因素.     

Law,Finance, and Economic Growth

This paper examines how the legal environment affects financial development, and then asks how this in turn is linked to long-run economic growth. Financial intermediaries are better developed in countries with legal and regulatory systems that (1) give a high priority to creditors receiving the full present value of their claims on corporations, (2) enforce contracts effectively, and (3) promote comprehensive and accurate financial reporting by corporations. The data also indicate that the exogenous component of financial intermediary development—the component defined by the legal and regulatory environment—is positively associated with economic growth. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, K12, O16     

The relationship between finance and growth in China

We examine the non-linearity between financial development and economic growth in China. Specifically, we use a threshold model to investigate whether provinces with high level of personal income can exploit financial development efficiently. Empirical analysis, using cross-provincial data from 1978 to 2010, shows that finance has a strong positive influence on growth in high-income provinces, but a strong negative impact on growth in low-income provinces. The results are robust to an alternative financial development measure. Furthermore, we find that China's state sector, notorious for inefficiency and low productivity, accounts for a large proportion of industrial output in low-income provinces, causing bank loans to have a negative impact on economic growth.     

Does sukuk market development spur economic growth?

We investigate the impact of sukuk market development on economic growth using a sample comprising all sukuk-issuing countries spanning the period 1995–2015. We use the system GMM estimator to tackle potential omitted variable bias, endogeneity, and simultaneity issues. We report a strong and robust evidence that sukuk market development is conducive to economic growth, even after controlling for various measures of financial market development, institutional quality, and classical determinants of economic growth. In addition, the evidence does not support the well-known positive association between financial development and economic growth. We conclude that the development of sukuk markets may have promoted financial inclusion by eliminating the negative effects of religious self-exclusion, which stimulates investment and economic growth.     

地方中小金融机构支持县域经济发展的实证分析——以湖南省望城县为例

以湖南省望城县为例,首先利用格兰杰因果检验方法,从产业的角度分析地方中小金融机构对县域经济的支持作用;然后,在对柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型作合理拓展的基础上,将金融要素引入到该模型中,测算金融要素对地方经济增长的贡献。实证分析结果表明,中小金融机构对县域经济具有重要的推动作用。     

Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region

Over the last four decades, a wide theoretical debate is concerned with the fundamental relationship between financial development and economic growth. Recent studies shed some light on the simultaneous effect of banks and financial system development on growth rather than a separate impact. The empirical study is conducted using an unbalanced panel data from 11 MENA region countries. Econometric issues will be based on estimation of a dynamic panel model with GMM estimators. Thus, peculiarities of MENA region countries will be detected. The empirical results reinforce the idea of no significant relationship between banking and stock market development, and growth. The association between bank development and economic growth is even negative after controlling for stock market development. This lack of relationship must be linked to underdeveloped financial systems in the MENA region that hamper economic growth. Then, more needs to be done to reinforce the institutional environment and improve the functioning of the banking sector in the MENA region. Based on these results, other regions at the same stage of financial development such as Africa, Eastern Europe or Latin America should improve the functioning of their financial system in order to prevent their economies from the negative impact of a shaky financial market.