SOCIAL COSTS OF REGULATION OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION TO ANIMAL WELFARE REGULATION OF THE VICTORIAN PIG INDUSTRY*

The effects of state government regulation of primary industry are modelled. An analytical framework is presented for estimating the costs of regulation in terms of changes in economic surplus. The model permits trade between regions of the total market. An illustrative application of the framework is applied to proposed animal welfare regulation of the Victorian pig industry. Some regulations that may provide large gains with regard to the welfare of farm animals involve only small social costs compared to the gross value of production of the industry. Conversely, other regulations that potentially confer only small gains in animal welfare impose large social costs. The distribution of these costs is important. In general, consumers lose, as do some producers. Other producers gain. In some cases, producers in aggregate gain from regulation. Major beneficiaries, such as advocates of animal welfare regulations, are likely to bear little of the cost of regulation.     

Consumer willingness to pay for chicken welfare attributes in Kenya

Abstract

This study provides new insights on consumer preferences for chicken welfare attributes in a developing country context. Further, the inclusion of chicken transportation methods as an attribute is a useful contribution to empirical literature. Choice experiment survey data from 200 chicken consumers in Kenya were analyzed using random parameter logit model. Consumers had a positive preference for use of certified transportation, humanely slaughtered chicken and welfare labeling. However, there was a negative preference for using antibiotics in chicken production. Relative to the current price of chicken meat, consumers were willing to pay a premium of 30% for use of certified transport, 72% for animal welfare labeling, 135% for humane slaughter, 236% for nonuse of growth hormones and 40% less for chicken reared in confined systems.     

Production technology option value: the case of rbST in Michigan

Agricultural producers are increasingly required to adjust production practices to satisfy retailer, and ultimately consumer, preferences. This article highlights the option value that underlies decisions related to production technologies using the case of Michigan dairy farmers and recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST). Welfare impacts were calculated for dairy producers when milk production systems which allowed the use of rbST were eliminated from the producer choice set. Those dairy producers using rbST just before its elimination realized a higher welfare loss than those not using the technology. However, significant welfare impacts were found for all dairy producers indicating that all producers valued the option to use this production technology.     

Cow‐Calf Producer Preferences for Voluntary Traceability Systems

This article identifies preferences of US cow‐calf producers for voluntary traceability systems to better identify the potential success of alternative voluntary traceability systems. Results suggest that notable heterogeneity exists between cow‐calf producers in their preferences and the welfare effects of mandating traceability adoption. Producers are sensitive to price, managing entity and information requirements. We provide forecasts of voluntary participation rates under different price premium and discount scenarios that producers may face. This analysis has policy implications as success of voluntary traceability systems hinges critically upon cow‐calf producer preferences.     

The Relationship between Animal Welfare and Economic Performance at Farm Level: A Quantitative Study of Danish Pig Producers

We propose a theoretical framework for the relationship between animal welfare and the economic performance of livestock farms. We empirically analyse this relationship based on a unique dataset of randomly sampled Danish pig herds that includes information from unannounced inspections of the compliance with the animal welfare legislation. We find large variations in economic performance and animal welfare. The relationship between these two indicators is rather weak, but tends to be slightly positive. A possible explanation for our results is that management has a major influence on both economic performance and animal welfare so that good farm managers are able to meet all animal welfare regulations, while achieving a high economic performance.     

Do Futures Benefit Farmers?

Simulations are used to analyze welfare and market- and farm-level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity. Key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories, and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers. Application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizable market- and farm-level effects. Futures availability enhances consumer welfare, reduces nonadopter welfare, and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share.     

农地城市流转前后农民福利变化研究——基于农民分化的视角

农地城市流转是土地资源要素在城市化进程中重新配置的必然过程。为探明异质化日益明显的农民群体的福利水平在此过程中是否发生了差异性变动,采用湖北省武汉市所辖6个远城区的问卷调查数据,运用模糊积分评价方法对纯农业生产者、半工半农者和经商兼农者等3种分化类型农民在农地城市流转前后的福利变动情况进行了实证研究。结果表明,农民整体福利水平在农地城市流转后略有上升;3种分化类型农民的福利水平均有所改善,但改善程度存在差异,改善幅度由大至小依次为经商兼农类农民、半工半农类农民和纯农业生产类农民;提升纯农业生产者和半工半农者这两个分化类型的福利水平是改善农民整体福利状况的关键;此外,影响这两类群体福利水平的因素集中在家庭经济状况、社会保障状况、心理感受以及环境条件4个方面。     

Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand.     

Animal Welfare and Eggs – Cheap Talk or Money on the Counter?

Our estimate revealed willingness to pay for animal welfare using a panel mixed logit model. We utilise a unique household level panel, combining real purchases with survey data on perceived public and private good attributes of different types of eggs. We estimate willingness to pay for organic eggs controlling for trust in a positive connection between the public good animal welfare and the organic label and the private good food safety also connected to the label. Our results suggest that in the real world, animal welfare plays a minor role in the demand for agricultural products.     

Evolving Marketing Channels for Beef and Lamb in the United Kingdom-

This paper investigates the effects of: (1) recent changes to food safety legislation; (2) increasing consumer concerns over animal welfare; and (3) further market integration in the European Union on British agribusiness firms involved in marketing beef and lamb. It is hypothesized that these changes will alter the transaction costs associated with marketing these products. As a result, there is likely to be a reduction in the number of animals sold for slaughter through traditional auction markets and an increase in direct contracting or strategic alliances between supermarkets and farmers' marketing cooperatives.     

The political economy of quality measurement: a case study of the USA slaughter cattle market

As agricultural products move from being economic commodities to quality–differentiated goods, price dispersion within specific markets increases and implicit subsidies from high quality producers to low quality producers are removed. The present paper examines how these distributional effects can influence patterns of support and opposition to changes in marketing arrangements. The simple model developed is calibrated using data from the USA slaughter cattle market. Estimates of the impact on prices of measuring quality more accurately are found to be similar in size to previous estimates of market power price suppression in the market.     

Economic Effects of the Consumer‐oriented Genetically Modified Products in Markets with a Labelling Regime

This paper builds on the literature on the economic effects of the second‐generation, consumer‐oriented genetically modified products (GMPs). It analyses the market and welfare impacts of the introduction of these new products in markets, like the EU, that mandate the segregation and labelling of the first‐generation, producer‐oriented GMPs. Developing an empirically relevant model of heterogeneous consumers and producers, the study determines the effects of the consumer‐oriented GMPs on the markets of conventional, GM and organic products, and the welfare of consumers and agricultural producers. Analytical results indicate that the market effects of the new GMPs are case specific and depend on: (i) the consumer valuation of the quality‐enhancing attribute of the new GMP; (ii) the level of consumer aversion to GMOs; (iii) the strength of consumer preference for organic products; and (iv) the production costs and marketing margins in the different supply channels. The policy on the labelling of the first‐generation GMPs does not affect the impacts of the second‐generation GMPs on the quantities and market shares of the different products. However, it does affect their price effects and welfare implications. The introduction of consumer‐oriented GMPs under a mandatory labelling regime can result in losses for some GM consumers and all producers of the conventional product.     

Price Stabilization and the Risk-Averse Firm

An analytically simple and tractable approach to firm-level welfare analysis of complete and partial mean-preserving price stabilization for producers with general risk-averse preferences facing a stochastic technology is developed. Necessary and sufficient conditions for price stabilization to be welfare enhancing are derived under different assumptions of the producer's preferences and the producer's technology. Existing stabilization results for the risk-averse firm are shown to be corollaries of these more general results.     

Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots

The economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks have been widely discussed in the literature. Most authors have centred their attention on estimating the direct costs. Recent studies have shown that the indirect economic effects might lead to equal or even higher welfare losses. This study aims to contribute to this field of research by assessing the effect of an animal disease outbreak on food market price dynamics in Mexico, accounting for the potential effect of an antitrust intervention. We employ a regime‐dependent vector error correction model and a connected scatterplot analysis. The results show that both the outbreak and the antitrust intervention caused structural breaks in food market price dynamics between producers and consumers, reflected in an increase in the absolute component of the marketing margin, with serious food security implications.     

WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF MORE ACCURATE RATIONAL FORECAST PRICES

Models are constructed to assess the welfare effects for producers, consumers and society of producers using forecast prices based on more accurate estimates of variables causing shifts in the demand for and supply of commodities. The basic model is a stochastic cobweb model in which producers' forecast price is the rational forecast price. The model is extended for many commodities, for partial producer response to more accurate forecast prices, and to include stock holding. In terms of economic surplus, producers and consumers gain from more accurate estimates of demand shift variables, producers gain and consumers lose from more accurate estimates of supply shift variables, and in both cases there is a net society gain.     

Trade diversion and antidumping effectiveness: insights from a residual demand model

A residual demand model is developed to predict the likely effects of an antidumping duty in the presence of trade diversion. A key insight is that the ability of an AD duty to increase the welfare of producers in the country imposing the duty hinges on the import supply elasticity for product from non‐named sources. The only instance in which this is not true is when supply for product from the named source is perfectly elastic. In this case, the welfare gain to domestic producers is maximised irrespective of the supply elasticity for imports from non‐named sources. A comparison of the residual demand model with the Armington model suggests the latter significantly understates both trade diversion and domestic producer gains from the duty.     

ESTIMATION OF SOCIAL WELFARE WEIGHTS IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY: THE CASE OF GREEK COTTON

This paper provides a welfare analysis of the Greek cotton market and obtains an estimate of the distributional weights implicit in the postulated welfare function of agricultural policy makers. The estimate of that weight depends, as might be expected, on the elasticity of supply and the difference between the support price and the market price. For the period covered, the welfare of Greek cotton producers was weighted about ten per cent more than that of taxpayers.     

Hog producer income losses under contagious animal disease restrictions

Eradication measures of a contagious animal disease may force farmers to keep ready-to-slaughter animals on the farm. As feeding heavy animals may reduce carcass quality and farmer income, farmers can adjust their feeding policy in order to decrease losses from delayed slaughter. The problem is interesting also from society's point of view because eradication measures can affect a large number of farms when a single farm is infected. A dynamic programming model is developed to study optimal hog feeding strategies when the timing of slaughter is restricted. The model takes into account carcass quality, its effects on timing of slaughter under given prices, and animal density on the farm. The results show that farmers suffer substantial losses due to delayed slaughter, and can minimize the losses by reducing energy feeding. The results give information on designing compensation schemes so that all farmers have economic incentives to implement preferred eradication policy.     

Small U.S. dairy farms: can they compete?

The U.S. dairy industry is undergoing rapid structural change, evolving from a structure including many small farmers in the Upper Midwest and Northeast to one that includes very large farms in new production regions. Small farms are struggling to retain competitiveness via improved management and low‐input systems. Using data from USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey, we determine the extent of U.S. conventional and pasture‐based milk production during 2003–2007, and estimate net returns, scale efficiency, and technical efficiency associated with the systems across different operation sizes. We compare the financial performance of small conventional and pasture‐based producers with one another and with large‐scale producers. A stochastic production frontier is used to analyze performance over the period for conventional and pasture technologies identified using a binomial logit model. Large conventional farms generally outperformed smaller farms using most economic measures—technical efficiency, various profitability measures, and returns to scale.     

Classical Swine Fever Changes the Way Farmers Value Pigs in South Africa

Although there is growing demand for animal products in Africa, production is stagnating. Appropriate management of livestock diversity could help reinvigorate production, contribute to food security and improve farmers’ livelihoods, particularly in subsistence‐oriented systems. We assess differences in farmers’ preferences and economic values for pig traits across different production systems and across areas that have been affected and unaffected by classical swine fever (CSF). Not surprisingly, market‐oriented farmers derived higher values from the productive traits such as heavy slaughter weight and large litter size found in exotic pig genotypes. Subsistence‐oriented farmers, particularly in swine fever affected areas, placed high value on tolerance to disease. We found that CSF changed farmers’ preferences for adaptive traits, and less so for productive traits. Therefore, indigenous breeds become more valuable for subsistence farmers and crossbreeds for market‐oriented farmers if CSF is a risk. Our results can have implications for breeding and conservation strategies and for compensation strategies after culling, and will become increasingly relevant if, as predicted, heat waves and disease outbreaks become more frequent in pig production systems in South Africa with climate change.