The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach

This article extends the recent literature on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis of a long-run decline in the relative prices of primary commodities. Our main innovation is testing for and estimating nonlinear alternatives to a secular deterioration. Specifically, we use bootstrap procedures to test the linear unit root model against models belonging to the family of smooth transition autoregressions (STARs) for twenty-four commodities, 1900–2003. In nineteen cases we reject the linear null at usual significance levels. In sixteen cases we are able to successfully fit STAR-type models. Simulation results show there is little support for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis.     

Balancing Bio-Energy Cropping Benefits and Water Quality Impacts: A Dynamic Optimization Approach

The relationship between bio-energy feedstock production and water quality has received little attention from economists. Here, an optimal control model is used to determine the optimal amount of land to convert to the production of energy feedstocks, specifically ethanol corn, taking into account potential impacts on water quality. Based on comparative static analyses of an optimal control model, and a numerical application, we find that the optimal proportion of land to shift into bio-energy production from a baseline use, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, depends on key model parameters, specifically the rate of degradation of the pollutant and the link between the intensity of bio-energy feedstock production and the rate of change in the pollutant stock. Yet, there is a limit to how much land should optimally be converted as society must trade-off its desire to mitigate climate change against its willingness to accept a decline in water quality. Le lien entre la production de matières premières bioénergétiques et la qualité de l’eau a attiré peu d’attention de la part des économistes. Nous avons utilisé un modèle de contrôle optimal pour déterminer les superficies optimales à convertir à la production de matières premières énergétiques, en particulier le maïs destinéà la production d’éthanol, en tenant compte des répercussions potentielles sur la qualité de l’eau. D’après une simulation numérique et des analyses de statique comparative obtenues à l’aide d’un modèle de contrôle optimal, nous en sommes venus à la conclusion que les superficies optimales à convertir à la production de matières premières bioénergétiques à partir d’un instrument de référence, tel que le Conservation Reserve Program (Programme de réserve des terres sous conservation), dépend des paramètres clés du modèle, particulièrement du taux de biodégradation des polluants et du lien entre l’intensité de la production de matières premières bioénergétiques et le taux de variation du stock de polluants. Il existe tout de même une limite quant aux superficies à convertir étant donné que la société doit faire un choix entre son désir d’atténuer le changement climatique et son acceptation d’une diminution de la qualité de l’eau.     

Identity Preservation and International Trade: Signaling Quality across National Boundaries

Changing consumer preferences, technological advances, global agri-food markets and increasing regulation of food quality and safety have created the need for identity-preserved production and marketing (IPPM) systems, which bridge the gap between differentiated consumers' wants and traditional commodity-based agri-food production and marketing systems. The international trading regime is ill equipped to deal with these changes. In the absence of an agreed set of trade rules to regulate trade in differentiated food products, relying on IPPM systems or barring imports of low-quality goods become domestic policy choices. The latter is shown to be an inferior policy option. The sustainability of an IPPM across national boundaries is dependent upon its ability to credibly signal quality to consumers. Incentives to cheat erode this credibility. Horizontal and vertical cooperation through thirdparty certification are key to the long-run sustainability of IPPM systems.     

中国饲料粮区域间流通及对价格的反应

本文运用混合运输模型研究中国饲料粮的区域间流通以及对价格的反应。混合运输模型中还考虑了价格变化的不充分调整和充分调整对区域间饲料流通的影响。不同模拟方案显示,尽管在不同价格变化条件下饲料粮区域间流通在流动方向和数量上会有所不同,但是基本格局没有实质性变化;经过市场充分调整后,区域间饲料流通格局对价格的反应长期较短期更为敏感。     

近代对外贸易与江苏省农村产业结构的变动

对外贸易结构的变动与产业结构的变动是相互联系相互影响的。本文论述了1895－1936年期间在社会经济制度没有得到根本改造和农业生产技术没有重大质变的条件下,江苏省近代农村产业结构在对外贸易的影响下所发生的转折性变化,即种植业突破单一种植格局,农村工业和流通业应运而生,农业不再是传统意义上的一元主体,从而形成贸工农结合的多元主体结构。农村产业结构的调整为江苏近代民族工业的产生与发展提供了农业条件。由于近代对外贸易的被动性,以及“工业制成品－初级产品”的不合理的贸易结构,对外贸易不可能带来农村产业结构的根本性转变。     

世界主要木本粮食生产和贸易格局变动分析

利用FAOSTAT数据库的相关数据,对近50年世界主要木本粮食生产和贸易变动状况进行分析。研究结果表明:虽然世界主要木本粮食的收获总面积和年总产量均有所增长,但是年产量增长缓慢,且单位面积产量出现下降;中国和中东国家对世界主要木本粮食生产扩张贡献大,日本和意大利等发达国家的木本粮食生产规模缩小;世界主要木本粮食的出口量小,出口增长缓慢,中国的板栗和柿子产量虽很高,但国际竞争力却不强;世界木本粮食的主要进口国变动不大,仍然以日本、法国和美国等发达国家为主。     

Trade and Environmental Policy: A Race to the Bottom?

The focus of this paper is the issue of regulatory chill and a race to the bottom in environmental standards and policies. In particular, it explores the possibility that resolution of this problem may lie in a more flexible application of the existing General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) rules. The structure of the discussion is divided into four parts: (i) the standard analysis of trade and environmental policy is laid out; (ii) the theoretical analysis of and empirical evidence for the existence of pollution havens is reviewed; (iii) the main arguments as to why governments may weaken domestic environmental policy with greater trade liberalisation is outlined; and (iv) some recent analysis of border tax adjustments for environmental taxes is laid out, leading to the basic conclusion of the paper: a method for countering any tendency for regulatory chill and a race to the bottom in environmental policies is already embedded in existing GATT/WTO rules.     

对近代黑龙江省森林面积和蓄积量变化的考释

黑龙江省森林以其清朝龙兴之地和特殊的地缘关系,在全国是保存最好、最大的一片原始森林,史称“窝集”,进入近代以来,惨遭俄、日帝国主义的疯狂掠夺,其资源锐减。文章沿时间顺序对黑龙江省森林面积和蓄积量的数据的参考价值进行考释,以揭示黑龙江省森林资源的变迁。     

基于网络线索法的耕地质量监测采样野外调查设计

研究一种将人力、物料、时间等资源配置与业务流程设计集成的网络线索法,为耕地质量等别监测采样的野外调查方案编制提供技术支持。按照"先对象定位,再采样调查"的基本线索,以野外调查采样的对象集、事务集为结点,以调查对象遍历的空间路径和调查事务实施的逻辑路径为网络弧段,构建了复合网络模型;在此基础上设计了包括资源需求汇总、事务资源配置以及人员事务调度等内容的模型应用方法;以湖北省阳新县2015年度耕地质量监测为实例进行了方法验证。实例应用说明基于网络线索法可以:(1)梳理耕地质量监测采样野外调查完整的事务逻辑关系,实现调查方案的总体业务流程设计;(2)实现调查人员,包括运输、采样和记录工具的物料资源以及调查时间等3大类要素的需求汇总统计;(3)实现每一个事务结点所需调查人员配置、物料资源的分解及前驱后继传递关系配置;(4)明确每一个调查人员的业务顺序分工、承担事务结点的任务内容与使用的物料资源。网络线索模型显化了事务与资源之间的逻辑关系,可以很好地为耕地质量监测类似的、具有多任务并行特点的野外调查采样的工作实施方案设计提供方法参考。     

Cooperatives and the Commodity Political Agenda: A Political Economy Approach

Historically, major agricultural cooperatives in Canada have been intimately involved in commodity policy issues. Large cooperatives were created because farmers were upset about the perceived lack of competition in buying farm inputs or selling farm outputs. Often, the resulting cooperative was the organization farmers saw as the logical organization to represent their view of commodity policy or competition policy. As cooperatives grew and diversified, the ability to represent their members coherently across policy issues was hampered. For processing cooperatives in the supply-managed sector, the requirement that the cooperative be the political arm of industry, process product, and provide maximum returns to producer members made for a complicated objective function. This paper focuses on the twin objectives of providing efficient member services and performing political lobbying in a public choice framework. The results are illustrated by the recent history of a supply-managed further-processing cooperative and a diversified grain cooperative.     

创新机制 转变方式 努力开创森林保护和经营新局面

湖南省紧紧围绕国家林业局采伐管理改革具体部署:推进采伐分类管理,使采伐管理范围更加明确;编制森林经营方案,使限额管理更加科学;创新分配机制,使采伐指标分配更加公平;简化审批程序,使采伐指标申请更加便捷;加强监督管理,使采伐秩序更加规范。     

Contracting Institutions,Agro‐food Trade and Product Quality

The agro‐food sector has experienced a profound transformation of contractual arrangements along the value chain, coinciding with important technological innovations and product quality upgrading. Our understanding of the impact that this transformation has had on trade flows in the agricultural sector is very limited. In particular, we have limited knowledge about the extent to which the patterns in agro‐food trade have been driven by the quality of contractual institutions. Using existing measures which capture the sensitivity of agro‐food products to contractual imperfections, we show that countries with better contract enforcement specialise in the production of food which requires higher level of relationship‐specific investments. We also find that countries with better contracting institutions and producing contract‐intensive goods specialise in exporting high quality foods. In addition, we show that the quality of contracting institutions might importantly affect the process of product quality upgrading.     

Trade Elasticity,Gravity and Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from the Food Industry

We present an econometric investigation of the trade effect produced by the elimination of tariffs in 18 food sectors for a large sample of developing and developed countries. The standard CES monopolistic competition trade model and the gravity equation were used to estimate trade substitution elasticities, exploring their sensitivity to different estimation methods. Using these elasticities, we simulate the trade effect of the elimination of tariffs, dealing with the problem of uncertainty in the estimated values. Results point to a significant variation in the elasticities estimated by different econometric methods, suggesting that the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator significantly inflates their magnitude. Simulation results indicate that trade liberalisation will strongly increase food exports especially from high income and emerging countries, leading to a general loss of market share by developing countries. The simulated trade flows obtained from the econometric approach are quite close to current evidence based on computable general equilibrium models.     

入世后中国林产品市场与贸易发展变化及对策研究

高度概括了国际林产品市场与贸易发展态势,总结发展特点,简述发展趋势和面临挑战;详细分析了加入世界贸易组织(WTO)后中国林产品市场与国际贸易的发展变化:中国林业国际地位明显提升,林产品外贸环境进一步改善,林产品国际竞争力逐步提高;提出了应对林产品国际贸易变化的对策建议:政策调整、技术创新和品牌建立。     

Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Patterns: A Segmentation Approach

In this article, we study the heterogeneity of fruit and vegetable consumption patterns in France. A finite mixture of AIDS models is used to describe food demand patterns revealing different preferences over distinct classes. We obtained six different clusters, which reflect specific socio-demographic characteristics and different income and price elasticities. This approach is appropriate for targeting specific public nutritional policies. Our main results show that unlike the other clusters in which the usual price and income policy tools may be used, the lowest income cluster with the lowest consumption, remains insensitive to economic variables.     

Incorporating Trade into the Investment Development Path: A Case Study of Korea and Taiwan

We suggest that there is some interface between the investment development path (IDP) and the trade development path (TDP)-with both trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) of created asset-intensive products increasing their significance relative to gross national product (GNP) of countries. The proportion of intra-industry trade and FDI to total trade and FDI also increases as an economy develops, particularly so for created asset-intensive products. We have taken the FDI intensity of manufacturing sectors as a proxy for a created asset intensity, and classified it into three categories, viz. above, average and below created asset intensities. Trade and FDI data from the Korean and Taiwan economies between 1968 and 1997 generally support the idea of an integrated TDP and IDP. The growth of trade and FDI tends to be positively correlated with GNP per capita and with the created asset intensity of products.