利率市场化、存款保险制度与系统性银行危机防范北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文基于全球88个国家1970～2012年的面板数据,研究了利率市场化改革和存款保险制度建设对系统性银行危机发生概率的影响。研究表明,利率市场化将提高系统性银行危机发生几率;存款保险制度对系统性银行危机发生几率的影响,取决于存款保险制度的金融稳定作用和导致的银行道德风险问题;尽管利率市场化完成后存款保险导致的银行道德风险上升、存款保险的金融稳定效应可能并不明显,但若利率市场化时期建有存款保险制度,将有助于降低利率市场化改革时期系统性银行危机发生概率。另外,加强银行监管有助于限制存款保险导致的银行道德风险、增进银行系统稳定性;提高市场约束力和防范道德风险的存款保险制度设计,也有助于防止系统性银行危机发生。     

利率市场化与中国银行业系统性风险研究

为了量化利率市场化可能带来的系统性风险,本文构建了一个涵盖利率风险、银行间传染风险和流动性风险的系统性风险量化模型,采用中国129家银行的财务数据,通过拓展的矩阵法对不同冲击下的银行业系统性风险进行了压力测试。研究表明:利率市场化会显著增加中国银行系统的脆弱性,提高银行业的系统性风险水平;利率敏感性缺口较大、规模较小的银行更容易倒闭;重度压力测试下会爆发银行业系统性危机。基于实证结果,本文认为:为规避系统性风险,银行应当严控利率风险、加强产品创新和业务拓展,并且在存放同业资产时,选择同业资产少的银行作为交易对手,防止同业交易过于集中导致系统性风险的积聚。     

利率市场化、存款保险制度与银行危机——基于跨国数据的实证研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文选用51个国家1973-2005年间数据,基于国际层面,对存款保险制度下利率市场化与银行危机之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,利率市场化会加剧银行危机的发生概率,但存款保险制度建立可弱化利率市场化的危机效应,并维护利率市场化后的金融稳定。存款保险制度的危机弱化效果在不同发展阶段国家之间存在差异,其为利率市场化"保驾护航"的效果在发达国家不显著,但在欠发达国家显著。研究进一步发现,制度内容设计影响了存款保险制度的"保驾护航"效果。本文的结论启示我们,中国需进一步健全金融安全网,完善存款保险制度职能,为利率市场化的下一步推进创造环境和条件;与此同时,中国要警惕利率市场化"单兵推进"带来的风险,利率市场化推进与存款保险制度完善需"齐头并进"。     

存款保险制度对我国商业银行的影响

存款利率的放开伴随着银行风险的增加,而存款保险制度作为防范银行系统性风险发生的工具,一方面能够保护存款人利益,防范银行风险,维持金融稳定;另一方面又因逆向选择和道德风险的产生弱化市场约束力,加大银行危机。文章通过对存款保险制度对商业银行的正负净效应进行分析,得出加强银行监管力度和有助于防范银行道德风险的保险制度设计可以更好地发挥存款保险制度作为金融稳定器的作用。     

利率市场化改革进程中的银行风险与防控

我国利率市场化改革16年来稳步推进,对银行业的发展起到了积极作用,但是在利率市场化改革的进程中,银行业经营将面临更多不确定性,银行体系面临的系统性风险逐步上升。主要表现在大型银行经营风险上升,地方中小金融机构经营风险加剧,银行业风险管控难度增加,外部风险向银行传递速度加快。要通过强化商业银行风险管理、强化宏观审慎监管等路径,加强利率市场化进程中银行业的风险与防控。     

存款保险制度对我国商业银行的影响浅析

我国《存款保险条例》于2015年5月1日正式颁布,在我国境内设立的银行等金融机构需要按照该条例的规定对吸收的存款投保存款保险。存款保险制度的实施有利于促进我国银行业整体稳定经营,维护存款人的利益;促进我国银行业的公平竞争;推动利率市场化的进程及金融创新的能力。但是同时会造成银行经营成本增加;诱发道德风险及逆向选择;储户及银行风险控制等问题。本文分析了存款保险制度的建立和实施对我国商业银行造成的正面及负面影响,并为我国商业银行在存款保险制度下的健康快速发展提出建议。     

存款保险制度研究——基于银行业利润冲击的实证分析

随着我国利率市场化改革的持续推进,存款保险制度体系成为即将面对的攻坚环节。本文在我国不断变迁的金融市场环境和制度约束下分析存款保险制度对银行业发展的影响,并构建银行潜在利润影响模型进行实证分析。结论表明,存款保险制度有利于我国利率市场化过程中金融体系的稳定,但短期内会对部分银行特别是中小银行在盈利水平、资产结构以及外部声誉等方面产生一定的负面影响。     

存款保险制度研究——基于银行业利润冲击的实证分析

随着我国利率市场化改革的持续推进,存款保险制度体系成为即将面对的攻坚环节。本文在我国不断变迁的金融市场环境和制度约束下分析存款保险制度对银行业发展的影响,并构建银行潜在利润影响模型进行实证分析。结论表明,存款保险制度有利于我国利率市场化过程中金融体系的稳定,但短期内会对部分银行特别是中小银行在盈利水平、资产结构以及外部声誉等方面产生一定的负面影响。     

从国际视角看利率市场化过程中的监管作用

利率市场化是未来几年中国金融改革的核心,可是一些国家利率市场化改革陆续引发银行业危机,这值得我们的关注和借鉴.本文以美国、日本利率市场化改革过程为例,探究了政府监管不善与银行业危机形成、发酵之间的关系,认为利率市场化改革并不意味着政府监管的放松,相反政府应该通过有效监管约束银行行为并引导银行业发展.对于可能出现的银行业危机,政府不应拘泥于市场化干预,必要时可以动用行政干预以遏制危机蔓延.     

欠发达地区利率市场化应对策略：微观机理与宏观调控

欠发达地区利率市场化进程中的主要问题是,存款利率的上升、贷款利率的下降,是银行业金融机构特别是小型农村金融机构迫于同业竞争压力作出的调整,并非这些金融机构因盈利能力增强而主动提高存款利率、降低贷款利率;其后果是这些机构的资产利润率同步下降,是难以为继的。因此,在利率市场化进程中,宏观调控、监管部门的职责重点应是推进建立公平竞争、顺畅进出的金融市场;目前应适当放松对实体银行业金融机构的监管,使其在与互联网金融等机构竞争中保持大体公平的地位。大型银行的任务应是建立健全内部资金转移价格体系,尽快形成全覆盖的财务（预算）硬约束。新进入市场的区域性中小型银行应避免为片面追求增长速度而进行不正当竞争。小型农村金融机构应理性对待利率市场化条件下的竞争新格局,审时度势,收缩低效率低收益业务。     

How does banking sector globalization affect banking crisis?

A key feature of financial services liberalization is increasing banking-sector globalization.Using different measures to capture this phenomenon, the present study examines its impact on banking crisis for a dataset of 138 nations spanning the period 1998–2013, while controlling for other banking-industry specific, macroeconomic and external factors. Employing different econometric models and several robustness checks, I find greater banking sector globalization to reduce the occurrence of banking crisis. Moreover, greater bank asset concentration, diversification, credit flows, real interest rates, inflation rates, M2-to-foreign exchange reserves and nominal exchange rate depreciations significantly increase the likelihood of banking crisis, while higher bank profits, real GDP growth, economic development and economic freedom lower such chances. The results are further examined for nations across different levels of economic development and with different degrees of foreign bank penetration. The findings underscore that foreign bank presence provides greater financial stability in the banking industry of host nations.     

Macro-financial determinants of the great financial crisis: Implications for financial regulation

We provide a cross-country and cross-bank analysis of the financial determinants of the Great Financial Crisis using data on 83 countries from the period 1998 to 2006. First, our cross-country results show that the probability of suffering the crisis in 2008 was larger for countries having higher levels of credit deposit ratio whereas it was lower for countries characterized by higher levels of: (i) net interest margin, (ii) concentration in the banking sector, (iii) restrictions to bank activities, (iv) private monitoring. The bank-level analysis reinforces these results and shows that the latter factors are also key determinants across banks, thus explaining the probability of bank crisis. Our findings contribute to extend the analytical toolkit available for macro and micro-prudential regulation.     

Financial liberalization,insurance market,and the likelihood of financial crises

This paper provides empirical evidence to investigate the direct impact of financial liberalization on the likelihood of currency/systemic banking crises, and examines the roles of insurance market, country risk, and economic conditional variables on the relationship between financial liberalization and financial crises in 39 countries. Our empirical results support that financial liberalization does have a significantly negative impact on the likelihood of currency/systemic banking crises, and that the indirect effects of insurance development and lower country risk decrease the probability of crises, but the indirect effect of economic conditional proxies is enhanced with the likelihood of a financial crisis. The policy implication is that the government or authority should strengthen the positive role of the insurance sector in order to combat financial crises.     

Bank Exposure to Interest Rate Risks During Financial Liberalization: Evidence from South Korea

This study documents the changing impact of long and short term interest rate risks on the equity prices of banks in South Korea during the process of financial liberalization. Consistent with the presence of regulatory constraints, Korean bank equity returns are found to be sensitive to both anticipated and unanticipated changes in interest rates in the first period (1976-81) when banks were largely under government control. However, during our last period (1989-99) of liberalization, Korean bank equity returns were found to have a positive association only with unanticipated short-term interest rates. Consistent with the ability to manage other interest rate risks successfully, in this last liberalization period, Korean bank equity returns had no association with long-term or with anticipated short-term interest rates. In view of the continued interest in banking and financial market liberalization among many Asian, African, and formerly socialist countries including China, these results should be of much banking and policy interest. JEL Classifications: G21, G28, E44, L89     

What is the net effect of financial liberalization on bank productivity? A decomposition analysis of bank total factor productivity growth

We employ a unique framework to quantify the net effect of financial liberalization on banks’ total factor productivity (TFP) growth through a decomposition analysis of two effects: a positive direct effect of financial liberalization on bank TFP growth; and a negative indirect effect operating through a higher propensity to systemic banking crisis. The empirical decomposition is based on a sample of 1530 banks operating in 88 countries over the period 1999–2011. We find that the net effect of financial liberalization on bank TFP growth is positive: the direct positive effect outweighs the negative one. An important policy implication flows from these findings.     

How do bank competition,regulation, and institutions shape the real effect of banking crises? International evidence

This paper studies the influence of bank competition on the real effect of 36 systemic banking crises in 30 countries over the 1980–2000 period and how this influence varies across countries depending on bank regulation and institutions. We find that bank market power is not on average useful for mitigating the negative real effect of a systemic banking crisis. Market power promotes higher growth during normal times in industries that are more dependent on external finance but induces a bigger reduction in growth during systemic banking crises. We also find a country-specific effect depending on bank regulation and institutions. Stringent capital requirements and poor protection of creditor rights increase the benefits of bank market power for mitigating the negative real effect of a systemic banking crisis because bank market power has a positive effect on economic growth during both crisis and non-crisis periods in these environments.     

利率市场化改革与货币政策银行利率传导

现代货币政策框架的内涵之一是畅通的货币政策传导机制。在货币政策对银行利率的传导中,政策利率尤其是再融资工具利率能够通过市场利率向贷款利率和存款利率顺畅传导。本文构造了一个多部门局部均衡模型,刻画利率市场化程度的时变特征,从理论上讨论利率市场化程度与货币政策银行利率传导之间的内生关系,两者共同决定了利率市场化改革的成效。基于时变因子扩展向量自回归模型,本文进一步验证了理论分析的结论。研究发现:(1)利率市场化改革具有阶段性波动特征,利率市场化程度不是一直上升的,改革可能会曲折迂回。(2)利率市场化改革具有动态政策效应,多种改革政策共同推动渐进的利率市场化,但从货币政策银行利率传导的有效性进行考察,利率市场化改革仍然存在进一步推进的空间。因此,有必要完善贷款市场报价利率的形成、传导与调控机制,理顺不同利率之间的联动关系,疏通货币政策对银行利率的传导,充分发挥利率市场化改革的潜力。     

Interest margins and bank regulation in Central America and the Caribbean

This paper examines empirically the determinants of bank interest margins in Central America and the Caribbean over the period 1998–2014. A particular focus is set on the impact of differences in the regulatory environment and market structure across countries in explaining the interest margins of individual banks. Our results suggest that bank market power, operating costs, credit risk, and liquid asset holdings increase the margin between loan and deposit rates, while increased income diversification and GDP growth are associated with lower loan-deposit spreads. When considering information on banking regulation, we find strong evidence to support our main hypothesis that improvements in market quality and liberalization have a significant effect on interest margins. More specifically, reductions in entry requirements to banking, higher involvement of foreign banks, and increased financial statement transparency are associated with significant reductions in interest margins.     

中国银行部门的自由化:进程、现状与展望

金融自由化是经济改革的高级和深化阶段.自20世纪90年代初期至今,中国银行部门的自由化改革已经取得一系列重大进展.本文从存、贷款利率,信贷控制,法定存款准备金和对外开放等方面,对1992-2006年间中国银行部门自由化进程进行定量分析.研究发现,在15年的改革历程中,银行业先后实现了从基本管制、部分管制、部分自由和基本自由的连续转变.银行改革已经获得实质性突破.总体看,虽然起步较晚,但战略性、连续性和系统性等特征使银行部门自由化水平达到新兴市场经济国家20世纪90年代初期的水平.     

Bank concentration,competition, and crises: First results

Motivated by public policy debates about bank consolidation and conflicting theoretical predictions about the relationship between bank concentration, bank competition and banking system fragility, this paper studies the impact of national bank concentration, bank regulations, and national institutions on the likelihood of a country suffering a systemic banking crisis. Using data on 69 countries from 1980 to 1997, we find that crises are less likely in economies with more concentrated banking systems even after controlling for differences in commercial bank regulatory policies, national institutions affecting competition, macroeconomic conditions, and shocks to the economy. Furthermore, the data indicate that regulatory policies and institutions that thwart competition are associated with greater banking system fragility.