企业债信用利差研究述评

本文总结了国内外有关企业债信用利差的最新研究成果,对其进行三方面的分类,包括信用利差模型的修正和拟合,信用利差影响因素研究以及信用利差与其他经济变量之间的关系三个方面,最后,本文给出了信用利差研究的展望方向.     

企业债券信用利差研究综述

随着短期融资券市场的逐步壮大,短期融资券的信用风险可能会对金融市场产生一定的负面影响。企业债券的信用利差将成为决定包括短期融资券在内的企业债券定价的主要因素之一,然而国内对信用利差的研究还处于起步阶段。本文对国内外债券的信用利差研究进行综述,系统总结了债券信用利差的内涵和影响因素,分析信用利差的估计和拟合方法、信用利差定价和信用利差期限结构,希望对企业债券的合理定价研究起到促进作用。     

信用利差期限结构模型及拟合估计研究综述

信用利差期限结构理论是信用衍生品定价理论中的重要内容,也是顺利开展信用衍生品金融工具的基础.本文以信用利差的度量为起点,对信用利差期限结构的模型、拟合以及估计进行了研究综述.     

我国短期融资券发行利差影响因子研究——基于横截面数据的实证分析

该文搜集了我国85只短融券发行时点的横截面数据,根据结构化模型和信用评级方法来选取微观因子变量,对短融券的发行信用利差进行定量分析后,得到了对其有显著影响的7个因素,并对实证结果进行了分析解释.     

我国短期融资券发行利差影响因子研究

该文搜集了我国85只短融券发行时点的横截面数据，根据结构化模型和信用评级方法来选取微观因子变量，对短融券的发行信用利差进行定量分析后，得到了对其有显著影响的7个因素，并对实证结果进行了分析解释。     

我国企业债券信用利差的宏观影响因素分析

随看我国企业债券市场的迅速发展,企业债券定价日渐成为人们普遍关注的问题企业债券利差消除了利率期限结构的影响,因此研究企业债券定价影响因素时,企业债券利差比企业债券价格更为直接.文章首先以全部企业债券的信用利差作为被解释变量,以各宏观影响因素作为解释变量,研究它们之间的相关关系,并选择最优模型;其次,以企业债券期限作为条件将全部企业债券划分为短期企业债券、中期企业债券、长期企业债券,分别以其信用利差作为被解释变量,以各宏观影响因素作为解释变量,研究其信用利差与各宏观影响因素间的相关关系并得出相关结论,认为只有改革我国对企业债券的高度行政化控制,同时取消利率管制,实现真正的利率市场化,真实的信用利差风险才能够表现出来. 此研究企业债券定价影响因素时,企业债券利差比企业债券价格更为直接.文章首先以全部企业债券的信用利差作为被解释变量,以各宏观影响因素作为解释变量,研究它们之间的相关关系,并选择最优模型;其次,以企业债券期限作为条件将全部企业债券划分为短期企业债券、中期企业债券、长期企业债券,分别以其信用利差作为被解释变量,以各宏观影响因素作为解释变量,研究其信用利差与各宏观影响因素间的相关关系并得出相关结论,认为只有 革我国对企业债券的高度行政化控制,同时取消利率管制,实现真正的利率市场化,真实的信用利差风险才能够表现出来 此研究企业债券定价影响因素时,企业债券利差比企业债券价格更为直接.文章首先     

我国企业短期融资券信用利差的实证分析

用KMV模型和回归分析法对违约距离与信用风险的关系以及违约风险、利率风险和流动风险因素对信用利差的影响进行实证分析。结果表明违约风险对企业短期融资券信用利差的解释力度并非最大,相反,利率风险的解释力最强,流动性风险的解释力最弱。     

担保对债券发行利差的影响效果研究

以2008年至2014年间我国发行的信用债券为研究样本,考察担保对债券发行利差的影响效果及其与债券信用等级、担保方式、宏观经济变量等因素的关系.研究结果显示,担保能够在一定程度上降低债券的发行利差,但降低的效果在不同信用等级、不同担保方式的样本之间存在差异.另外,担保降低债券发行利差的效果还受经济状况、信用违约事件发生等因素的影响而具有时变性.     

我国信用利差与基准利率关系实证研究

对现阶段我国债券市场短期融资券和企业债券、信用利差与政策基准利率的动、静态关系研究表明,无论从静态还是从动态角度来看,债券市场对信用风险的定价能力依然较弱,信用利差对基准利率变动也缺乏敏感性,这对利率政策的有效传导形成了一定的制约作用。因此,加快完善市场的基础制度,提高市场的信用风险定价能力,对于促进债券市场的稳健发展和提高货币政策传导效率具有非常现实的意义。     

不同付费模式下信用评级差异对债券定价的影响分析

发债主体信用评级与债券定价息息相关,而我国债券市场信用评级虚高,且诱因或为发行人付费模式。研究发现:不同付费模式下的发债主体信用评级差异为债券发行市场带来了增量信息,并提升了债券发行利差,且投资者对民营企业的发债主体信用评级差异更为敏感。     

Vulnerable options,risky corporate bond,and credit spread

In the current literature, the focus of credit‐risk analysis has been either on the valuation of risky corporate bond and credit spread or on the valuation of vulnerable options, but never both in the same context. There are two main concerns with existing studies. First, corporate bonds and credit spreads are generally analyzed in a context where corporate debt is the only liability of the firm and a firm’s value follows a continuous stochastic process. This setup implies a zero short‐term spread, which is strongly rejected by empirical observations. The failure of generating non‐zero short‐term credit spreads may be attributed to the simplified assumption on corporate liabilities. Because a corporation generally has more than one type of liability, modeling multiple liabilities may help to incorporate discontinuity in a firm’s value and thereby lead to realistic credit term structures. Second, vulnerable options are generally valued under the assumption that a firm can fully pay off the option if the firm’s value is above the default barrier at the option’s maturity. Such an assumption is not realistic because a corporation can find itself in a solvent position at option’s maturity but with assets insufficient to pay off the option. The main contribution of this study is to address these concerns. The proposed framework extends the existing equity‐bond capital structure to an equity‐bond‐derivative setting and encompasses many existing models as special cases. The firm under study has two types of liabilities: a corporate bond and a short position in a call option. The risky corporate bond, credit spreads, and vulnerable options are analyzed and compared with their counterparts from previous models. Numerical results show that adding a derivative type of liability can lead to positive short‐term credit spreads and various shapes of credit‐spread term structures that were not possible in previous models. In addition, we found that vulnerable options need not always be worth less than their default‐free counterparts. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:301–327, 2001     

上下游企业的信任与赊销战略——兼论区域金融发展的干扰效应

以沪深股市1990—2009年间的非金融上市公司为研究样本,利用Tobit模型和Inter-val模型对上下游企业的信任对上市公司赊销战略的影响以及区域金融发展对前两者关系的干扰效应展开研究。研究发现:上下游企业的总信任以及上游企业的信任会促使上市公司增加使用赊销战略,而下游企业的信任则会诱使上市公司减少赊销战略的使用;区域金融发展和上下游企业的总信任以及区域金融发展和上游企业的信任在对赊销战略的影响上是替代关系,但区域金融发展和下游企业的信任两者在影响公司赊销战略上的不确定关系仍待证实。     

The cyclical behavior of household and corporate credit in emerging economies

Standard consumption-investment theory predicts counter-cyclical (pro-cyclical) behavior of household (corporate) credit whereby households' consumption smoothing and firms' investment motives are aligned. Counter to the theoretical symbiosis consistent with U.S. data, we demonstrate not only in South Korea, but also in 19 emerging economies that the pro-cyclical behavior of household credit dominates that of corporate credit. Our analysis further reveals that dominant, pro-cyclical household credit accompanied by (collateral) assets and fueled by external debt generates counter-cyclical behavior in interest rates, amplifies credit market fluctuation, and hinders the growth of small- and medium-size businesses in the South Korean economy.     

Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads

This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model allows us to decompose credit spreads and build indicators of EM risks. A key result is that indices of EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads differ because of their specific reactions to global risks (risk aversion, liquidity and US corporate risk). For example, following Lehman's default, EM sovereign spreads ‘decoupled’ from the US corporate market, whereas EM corporates ‘recoupled.’     

信誉危机对企业管理的影响

"安然事件"之后,众多著名的大型跨国企业相继陷入了假帐、披露虚假信息的丑闻之中。公司信誉危机的突现,引起了广泛的讨论,尤其是对公司治理结构和公司监管制度提出了各种改革的意见。在理论层面上从微观企业的角度出发,对信誉的战略价值和经济价值进行分析,说明信誉管理可以为企业带来持久的竞争优势。     

Using Payment Behaviour Data for Credit Risk Modelling

In this paper we evaluate payment scores in two contexts; that of predicting future payment behaviour and that of corporate failure prediction. The assessment of the ability and willingness of a firm to pay its creditors, and the likely timeliness of payments, are a major focus of both credit risk analysis (from the trade credit perspective) and government policy, although the latter issues have not been much studied in the academic literature. While failure prediction models are traditionally used as indicators of payment behaviour in the UK, payment behaviour prediction models are estimated and made available in the USA by the leading credit reporting agencies and the predictive abilities of such scores in the UK context are, therefore, worthy of consideration.We also consider the contribution that payment behaviour scores can make to predicting corporate failure. An important question is whether the availability of payment behaviour scores increases the overall information content of the credit report or merely re-packages information represented elsewhere. We find that payment behaviour data can be used to predict successfully future payment behaviour in a trade credit context, and can add incrementally to the predictivity of corporate failure models.     

Counter‐Credit‐Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market

In this paper, using China's risk‐free and corporate zero yields together with aggregate credit risk measures and various control variables from 2006 to 2013, we document a puzzle of counter‐credit‐risk corporate yield spreads. We interpret this puzzle as a symptom of the immaturity of China's credit bond market, which reveals a distorted pricing mechanism latent in the fundamental of this market. We also find interesting results about relationships between corporate yield spreads and interest rates and risk premia and the stock index, and these results are somewhat attributed to this puzzle.     

Does credit composition matter for current account dynamics? Evidence from Turkey

Based on a dynamic approach using the Kalman filter we depict effects of time-varying interactions between different components of credit stock on the current account in the Turkish Economy for the period 2002Q3–2014Q3. We decompose the credit stock into consumer and non-financial corporate sector credit and show empirically that both types of credit stock have negative effects on the current account dynamics.     

Information Economics of Asian Bond Markets: A Comparative Analysis of Credit Agencies

ABSTRACT

This paper examines financial data and credit ratings of corporate bond issuers in East Asia. The empirical results suggest that the U.S.-based credit agency principally monitors issuers' creditworthiness as a determinant of corporate bond ratings. In contrast, local agencies focus on profitability and firm size. We consider that the similarities and differences in determinants originate from the following: (1) the business experience of agencies; and (2) the degree of development of each individual market.     

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.