浅析经济周期中的商业银行信贷风险

经济的周期性波动与银行收益水平紧密相关,尤其与银行不良贷款率和信贷规模存在密切的关系。目前,我国银行信贷存在贷款投放过于集中,个人信贷风险突显,政府融资平台信贷风险逐渐加大,经济周期和理性预期也增加信贷风险等问题。应合理控制行业风险,加强对政府平台融资的监管,提高商业银行抗风险能力,建立健全预警机制,防范银行信贷风险。     

我国银行业不良贷款率下降的理性思考——基于双因素贡献度的实证研究

本次全球性的金融危机表明银行仅靠资本不可能解决流动性问题,同时提示我们准确地揭示不良贷款比率变化的原因的重要性。本文将因素分析法和贡献度分析法结合起来,选取2001—2007年国内四家商业银行不良贷款率的真实变化及其相关数据,分别讨论不良贷款余额和贷款余额在样本银行不良贷款率下降中的贡献程度,挖掘我国商业银行不良贷款率下降的真实原因,为银行经营者与监管机构提供相关决策参考信息。     

上市银行不良贷款构成分析及改善建议——以锦州银行为例

国家大力扶持企业的经济建设,放宽贷款的限制条件,给很多企业带来了发展壮大的机会。以锦州银行为例,分别对锦州银行的逾期贷款、呆滞贷款和坏账贷款等不良贷款进行深入解读。目前由于上市银行经营管理制度不完善,我国对管理不良贷款的法律法规不健全,信贷人员专业素质不高,以及社会整体信用情况不佳与银行风控能力弱化等原因,导致银行不良贷款逐年增多。因此,上市银行应采取相应措施进行改善,完善自身经营管理制度,政府应健全法律法规并强化相关部门监管力度,对信贷人员加大培训力度,改善信贷机制,以便促进上市银行贷款业务的健康发展。     

经济转型与城乡收入差距——以广西1980～2009年数据为例

本文基于广西1980～2009年数据,研究了经济转型对城乡收入差距的影响。研究发现：非国有化、政府对经济活动干预程度的减弱对缩小城乡收入差距有显著的作用,经济开放则显著地扩大城乡收入差距。此外,城市化对城乡收入差距的扩大也有显著影响,而财政、金融对农村资源的投入等因素对缩小城乡收入差距的影响并不显著。研究结果表明,缩小城乡收入差距,政府应重点推进经济转型,特别是推进非国有化和减少对经济活动的干预;收入均等与经济增长可以成为地方政府两个并行不悖的目标,中央政府在推进城乡统筹时应尊重地方的自主实践。     

财政规模、不良贷款与金融业发展的关系探讨

本文利用2004~2013年的季度数据,通过基于GMM方法的联立方程模型,系统分析了我国政府财政规模、商业银行不良贷款和金融发展三者之间的相互关系。本文得出的结论为:在信贷资源向大型国有企业倾斜背景下,较低的不良贷款率可增加对国有企业的信贷支持从而扩大财政规模。反过来,我国政府财政规模的扩大使其也有能力消化因为商业银行行使财政职能而造成的不良贷款,降低商业银行的不良贷款率。可是,我国政府财政规模的扩大却无法促进我国金融行业的发展,同时金融业的发展也无法有效避免不良贷款的增加。金融业的发展需要依赖于金融中介配置效率的提高,在我国商业银行现行风险管理水平下,商业银行存贷比的提高将会导致商业银行不良贷款的增加,不良贷款率的增加反过来会限制商业银行对国有企业的信贷支持,减少我国的财政收入同时也会抑制我国金融业的发展。因此,切实需要提高商业银行的风险管理水平,提高资本配置效率,促进经济社会与金融行业的健康稳定发展。     

不良贷款的影响因素及系统性金融风险分析

次贷危机引起的全球金融危机再次让各国对不良贷款提高了警惕。目前,我国不良贷款比例虽呈现"双降",但其较高的水平仍可能对国家经济的发展产生不良影响。本文从企业景气指数和信贷供给两个角度分析其对不良贷款的影响,并简要论述因不良贷款所产生的信用危机可能带来的系统性金融风险。研究发现:企业景气指数与不良贷款存在正向的相关关系,而信贷供给对不良贷款是负的相关关系。同时,不良贷款可能存在的风险不容忽视。     

国有商业银行不良贷款的控制措施探讨

国有商业银行经营管理机制不完善,加上企业资金需求缺乏约束机制、国家经济体制和政府不合理干预的影响,造成不良贷款居高不下,隐含着巨人的金融风险。为防范金融风险,提高银行经营管理水平,必须完善银行信贷管理制度,实行企业信用评级,加强信贷风险管理,建立信贷风险转化与保障机制,实行企业与银行风险共担,完善信贷人员管理,转变政府职能减少行政干预,控制不良贷款发生,保持金融体系安全稳健运行。     

提高我国银行信贷资产质量的若干思考

随着世界经济的全球化 ,金融风险已成为人们非常关注的问题 ,商业银行的稳健经营具有极其重要的作用。我国银行的不良贷款问题已成为当前我国经济中最为集中和最为突出的问题 ,对不良贷款产生的原因、不良贷款对银行自身与我国经济的危害以及从银行外部和内部的角度分析了导致银行不良资产比率过高的原因 ,并提出解决不良贷款的对策。     

我国国有银行不良贷款防范问题研究

随着我国金融市场体系的不断开放与日益完善,我国国有银行正面临着前所未有的挑战,然而,由于银行自身经营及历史遗留问题使得银行的不良贷款居高不下,成了阻碍银行发展的一大障碍,也成了我国国有银行经营与发展的沉重负担。而银行作为金融业的支柱性产业和国家发展的重要经济基础,大量积累的不良贷款不仅影响银行功能的正常发挥,而且会给整个金融体系带来危机,最终放大作用于整个国民经济。因此银行不良贷款不仅关系着银行的生存与发展,更关系着国家经济的安全与稳定,只有将银行不良贷款控制在合理范围内,才可以促进银行的发展,提高银行在国内国际上的综合竞争能力,从而为增强我国经济实力提供物质基础,并且在一定意义上对防范金融危机的产生也具有重要的积极作用。因此,防范我国国有银行不良贷款的问题仍是亟待研究与解决的问题。     

银行业财务指标对系统性金融风险的影响研究

本文在充分梳理我国16家上市商业银行股票收益率的基础上,运用CoVaR模型测度并分析银行业财务指标如何影响系统性金融风险。研究发现：就抵御系统性风险的能力而言,国有银行最强,然后是股份制银行,最后是城市商业银行;就其对银行体系的系统性风险贡献而言,最大的是国有银行,然后是股份制的银行,最后是城市商业银行;单个银行的系统风险贡献与其自身规模、不良贷款率、批发式融资占比和GDP显著相关。     

The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries

It is generally believed that economic and financial performance in oil-rich countries are interlinked to oil price movements. On this assumption, we consider whether oil prices shocks have any impact on bank non-performing loans (NPLs), and if so, whether the effect is homogenous across banks. This paper addresses these questions by applying a dynamic GMM model on data from 2310 commercial banks in 30 oil-exporting countries over the period 2000–2014. Three main results emerge. First, changes in oil prices do have a significant impact on bank NPLs: A rise (fall) in oil prices is associated with a decrease (increase) in NPLs. Second, oil prices shocks have asymmetric effects on bank problem loans, with negative oil price movements generally have a greater impact than positive oil price movements. Third, the unfavourable impact of adverse oil prices shocks on the quality of bank loans tends to be more pronounced in large banks. Overall, these robust results favour the adaptation of appropriate macroprudential policies and diversification of the economy, in order to mitigate the adverse impact of oil prices shocks.     

财政分权、政府行为与地区经济增长

分税制以后,经济增长的主要政治推动力从中央政府转到地方政府。政府行为的市场化不仅为地区经济增长提供了推动力,也为地方政府官员运用现有权力和可控资源进行寻租提供了可能。从地市级层面上探究地方政府行为对银行信贷与经济增长关系的影响,并将官员腐败纳入地方政府产生干预行为的动机,可以发现,地方政府在多重利益驱动下产生的银行信贷干预行为,会对不同地区和不同类型的地市经济产生不同的影响。财政激励、晋升激励、腐败都会对银行信贷与经济增长的关系产生重要影响,但在地区之间存在差异,而且三种利益动机驱动下产生的信贷干预行为的影响程度同样存在差异,其中晋升激励和腐败行为的影响更大。     

Bank lending during the transition period in Eastern Europe

This paper develops a model for bank lending in economies in transition. Many loans in the bank's portfolio are non-performing as former state-owned companies are still to be restructured and therefore at least in the short-run short of cash-flow to service their loans. The bank now faces the following dilemma: should it terminate the loan irrespective of the future profitability thereby pushing the company into bankruptcy or should it extend its credit facilities thereby risking throwing good money after bad? This paper will argue that the bank should support a firm willing to undergo sufficient restructuring by extending existing credit facilities. On the other hand, the bank should initiate bankruptcy procedures against firms unwilling to undergo restructuring. The analysis is confined to small and medium-sized enterprises as large firms frequently get implicit or explicit government support.     

刍议商业银行加强中小企业信贷风险管理问题

当前,我国中小企业普遍面临着融资困难的状况,给中小企业发展带来了巨大的阻力。原因主要是由于中小企业自身实力较弱,经营管理制度不成熟,商业银行对中小企业信贷存在较高的风险等。商业银行在对中小企业信贷风险管理方面应该遵循全面性、系统性、谨慎性的原则,建立有用的、适合地区实际情况的信用风险管理体系,制定风险管理制度、程序和措施,提高银行贷款的质量,及时识别可能存在的风险,对风险进行监测并及时控制,从而确保信贷风险在合理的范围内,尽量减少不良贷款,确保银行资产的合理流动的目标。     

Political career concerns and bank lending in China

This study examines how politician's career concerns affect the bank loans using a sample of bank branches at the county-level in China. We use politician tenure to measure an important dimension of the politician incentives to intervene in the local economy, which is determined by their career concerns about perceived promotion probability. We find that there is a curvilinear relationship between politician tenure and bank loans (i.e., reversed U-shape). We also construct a promotion pressure index and document a positive relationship between this promotion index and bank loans. These results are more significant for banks located in counties with underdeveloped institutions or weak government capacity, and those with political ties. These results support the view that politicians have strong incentives to utilize local banks to promote local economic growth if it is also consistent with their private goals, especially in the environment with significant government ownership in banking systems.     

大银行信贷与中小企业融资的适配性问题研究

传统意义上,人们认为大银行信贷不适合中小企业融资,文章研究认为大银行是否适合中小企业,要考虑两个关键问题：首先是企业本身处于哪个阶段,由于风险和收益的影响,大银行不适合向初创期和衰退期的企业放贷,而处于成长期或成熟期且具有发展潜力的企业应该成为银行的主要服务对象;其次是银企之间的信息不对称,阻碍了大银行向中小企业贷款。在中小企业信用系统不健全,银行欠缺高效的贷款技术之前,大银行不适合直接面向中小企业贷款,而应该借助信息中介,例如民间金融、中小银行、电子商务平台等,才能提高银行的贷款效率,缓解中小企业融资难和融资贵的问题。     

Stress Testing Exposure of Banks to Sectors of the Ghanaian Economy

The capacity of Ghanaian banks to absorb large but plausible losses resulting from concentration of individual bank loan portfolios in sectors of the Ghanaian economy is investigated. Stress scenarios consist of worsening of banks’ impaired loan charges by one, two and three standard deviations of the industry’s recent distribution of non-performing loans. Findings reveal that the capital adequacy ratios of many banks would have been negatively impacted, some to the point of becoming insolvent. It is argued that, though these would be micro-prudential breaches, they are of such magnitude as to have economy-wide repercussions. Thus, bank loan portfolios are too concentrated.     

Efficiency and total factor productivity change of Malaysian commercial banks

This paper analyses the efficiency of Malaysian commercial banks between 1996 and 2002 and finds that while the East Asian financial crisis caused a short-term increase in efficiency in 1998 primarily due to cost-cutting, increases in non-performing loans after the crisis caused a more sustained decline in bank efficiency. It is also found that mergers, fully Islamic banks, and conventional banks operating Islamic banking windows are all associated with lower efficiency. The paper estimates suggest mild decreasing returns to scale, and an average productivity change of 2.37% that is primarily attributable to technical change, which has nonetheless declined over time. Finally, while Islamic banks have been moderately successful in developing new products and technologies, the results suggest that the potential for Islamic banks to overcome their relative inefficiency is limited.     

银行信贷与宏观经济波动:2003—2009

基于中国宏观经济金融的现实环境,通过构建反映宏观经济变量之间内在联系的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,实证检验2003年以来银行信贷投放对中国宏观经济波动的影响。结果表明:一方面,中国信贷规模资金的投放对宏观经济的稳定发展产生了重要的推动作用,但是信贷投放对经济增长的冲击效应会随着时间的变化逐渐趋弱;另一方面,短期来看,信贷资金的大规模投放不会对物价水平的攀升产生影响,但由于其是物价变动的主要因素,在长期内,必须合理估计中国将来在物价水平调控方面可能面临的较大压力。     

基于Markov过程的银行不良资产风险分析

把具有吸收态的马尔可夫链理论 ,运用于银行不良资产风险管理的可行性 ,从而建立相应的分析模型 ,设计出评价指标 ,对制定处理银行不良资产的政策和方案有一定的参考价值