亚洲债券基金及其最新进展

本文分析了亚洲债券基金产生的必要性，认为发展亚洲债券市场是降低亚洲金融脆弱性的有效途径，一个高效、有深度和流动性良好的亚洲债券市场将成为亚洲金融体系稳定的重要基础。在此基础上进一步讨论亚洲债券基金的主要目标，对其存在的问题进行分析，并对亚洲债券基金的最新进展及其前景做一些评述.     

Firm-level export performance in an inward-looking economy: The Indian engineering industry

This paper investigates some influences on export activity by the 100 largest engineering enterprises in India in the period 1966–1968 to 1976–1978. Among the interesting findings are that exporting is negatively correlated with profitability and technological activity, but that there are some major exporters who find exporting increasingly profitable and relate their R and D activity more to exporting over time. In general the findings illustrate at a disaggregated level the anti-export bias of the industrialization strategy pursued by India.     

Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India

This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical results, we specify a small open economy New-Keynesian model including oil and food prices and estimate it using observed data over the period 1996Q2 to 2013Q2 by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. The results suggest that a big part of the variation in inflation in India is due to cost-push shocks and, mainly during the years 2008 and 2010, also to global food price shocks, after having controlled for exogenous rainfall shocks. We conclude that the inflationary supply shocks (cost-push, oil price, domestic food price and global food price shocks) are important contributors to inflation in India. Since the monetary authority responds to these supply shocks with a higher interest rate which tends to slow growth, this raises concerns about how such output losses can be prevented by reducing exposure to commodity price shocks.     

Empowering communities: The experience of the church urban fund

This article seeks to report on ways of empowering local communities who are suffering multiple deprivation. It is set within the context created by the requirement for partnership in the submission of funding applications to City Challenge and the Single Regeneration Budget. This exploration draws upon an evaluation of the Church Urban Fund undertaken by the authors in 1993-4 funded by the Department of the Environment, the Church Urban Fund, the Paul S. Cadbury Trust and the Wates Foundation (Farnell et al, 1994).     

美国经济放缓对东南亚经济的冲击

美国经济正处在衰退的边缘，伴随着美国高科技产业的疲软和对外贸易量的急剧萎缩，东南亚国家似乎又被重新笼罩在经济危机的阴影之下。那么，东南亚国家受到此次美国经济下滑的影响到底有多大？东南亚国家应该采取什么样的对策来摆脱困境？这是本文将要阐述的内容。     

开放式基金风险收益分析及产品设计

开放式基金是证券投资基金中的一种重要方式,代表着我国基金业未来的发展方向.开放式基金对于基金管理公司来说,是机遇,也是挑战.在投资理念、市场营销、风险控制等许多方面将有别于目前的封闭式基金.其中的产品设计更是基金管理公司业务发展的基础性工作.一条结构合理的产品线能够在相当程度上保证基金公司管理的资产规模的稳定性.     

The emerging core characteristics of Vietnam's political economy

This paper offers an understanding of the core drivers of the political economy of the ruling Communist Party in Vietnam. In the absence of political reform, the regime does not possess the powers required by the new conditions of a market economy and an increasingly open society. Designed for Soviet totalitarianism, and without popular support or authority, the formal political institutions are anachronistic and thus limit the range of powers available to the Party. As the regime is thus unable to reliably deploy policy unless it feels threatened, politics becomes a competition over spoils. Thus, if macroeconomic instability actually or potentially threatens the regime, the Politburo gains authority to act, and policy is deployed. Yet, as popular discontent mounts over corruption, favourable treatment of politically connected businesses, public education and health, and other areas not seen as regime‐threatening, the disequilibrium leads to use of the security forces and increasing violence against popular opposition.     

Board characteristics and efficiency of value added by banks: Evidence from an emerging economy

This paper estimates the efficiency of value added by banks using their total resources (physical capital resources and intangible resources) and finds an association between board characteristics and efficiency of value added. The paper is grounded in the theory of resource and knowledge based view of the firm, and agency theory, and tries to establish links between these two theories. This study departs from existing literature of examining the effect of board characteristics on financial performance, corporate sustainability, and corporate environmental responsibility, and tries to understand the relationship between board characteristics and the efficiency of value added by banks through their resources. This is also the first study of its kind to study the relationship between board structure characteristics and value creation in Indian banks using the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient (VAIC) methodology. Using the data for 41 commercial banks in India from 2008 to 2017 and by employing Prais-Winsten Regression, this study finds that board meetings and CEO-Chairman duality significantly and positively influence the efficiency of value added by banks through their total resources and intellectual capital resources. At the same time, independence in the boards negatively influences the efficiency of value added through physical capital resources. Overall, the findings of the paper indicate that board governance influences bank performance measured in terms of efficiency of value added. Policymakers, regulators, and bank managers should frame appropriate policies to ensure more board meetings, and the presence of board duality.     

The monetarist explanation of inflation: The experience of six Asian countries

Studies on inflation, employing the Harberger-type monetarist model, have focused almost entirely on the hogh inflation experiences, usually those of Latin American countries. This model is applied here to the six Asian countries, which contain low and moderate inflation cases. The empirical results show that the growth of money stock was not the primary source of inflation in these countries. The failure of the monetarist model to explain the behavior of prices in Asian countries may be due (1) partly to the monetization of these economies which makes the growth of money stock endogenous, and (2) partly to its rigid specification which excludes the impact of the various domestic and external cost pressures. To test the validity of the latter proposition, the monetarist model is augmented by the inclusion of import prices which are widely alleged to have intensified inflationary pressures. The empirical results do indeed provide support for this view. As regards monetary policy the findings of this paper suggest that monetary discipline may be, by and large, ineffective in controlling inflation in moderate inflation countries.     

Telecommunications and the local economy: Some emerging policy issues

This paper provides a brief overview of the issues which surround local economic development and telecommunications. The implications of telecommunications for urban and regional development in the present “information-based” era are outlined and the seven basic features of this development are described. Some necessary steps and conceptual approaches to developing specifically local development policies in this new area are then expounded by way of the development of a “framework for the local policy maker”. Finally, several leading attempts at developing locally controlled telecommunications infrastructures in the UK, as agents of economic and social development, are briefly analysed.     

Macroeconomic management amid ethnic diversity: Fifty years of Malaysian experience

This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy has played in the Malaysian development experience. Given the multiracial nature of Malaysian society, macroeconomic policy has not only been about economic stabilization, but also about addressing income disparities along racial lines in order to preserve social harmony. The affirmative action program under the New Economic Policy (NEP) was an important signaling device, and served to demonstrate that all should share in future growth. These selective interventions were clearly distortionary, and promoted a culture of dependence on state hand-outs, as well as rent-seeking behavior. It was perhaps fortunate that FDI inflows and rapid export expansion were available to augment the domestic resource base. Although its resource cost was not a major drag on growth in the past, the slowdown in FDI inflows and exports post-crisis, combined with demographic change, implies that reforms may be necessary to ensure sustainability, going forward.     

Technical change and labor absorption in Asian agriculture: Some emerging trends

Increased labor absorption in agriculture has been widely held to be the key to solving unemployment problems in developing Asia, following the historical experience of East Asian countries. The new seed-fertilizer technology, interacting with expansion of irrigation and cropping intensity, initially increased labor absorption in wheat and rice production. However, evidence from recent village studies indicates that new labor-saving chemical and mechanical innovations originating in the developed countries are being rapidly adopted by farmers of the developing countries owing to their private cost-reducing characteristics. This international transfer of technology contributes to increased productivity, but results in net reductions of agricultural labor use. Recognition of the declining capacity of the agricultural sector for labor absorption indicates the need to seek solutions to unemployment problems in the off-farm sector.     

邮政储蓄资金外流对农村经济的影响及对策

种养大户随着种养规模的扩大,其资金需求也随之增加,仅靠自身积累难以满足扩大再生产资金需求,必须依靠金融系统的支持.农村资金原本就处于供小于求状态,邮政储蓄资金外流更加大了农村资金供给缺口,存款增幅越大,占市场份额越高,外流资金就越多,用于支持农村经济进一步发展的资金就越少,从而阻碍种养大户规模的扩大和农村二三产业的发展.为此应扩大邮政储蓄业务范围;将邮政储蓄收入的资金转让给信用社;在农村地区建立简易的社会保障体系;组建邮政储蓄银行.     

Economic structure and development in an emergent Asian economy: evidence from a social accounting matrix for vietnam

Vietnam started a wide-ranging process of economic reform in 1986 and is presently opening up its economy to regional and global economic forces. As a result, Vietnam faces significant challenges in the area of economic policy analysis in spite of a remarkable growth performance in recent years. This paper reviews insights emerging from a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM), compiled for the year 2000. The SAM reflects Vietnam’s heavy reliance on primary sector activities, but we also find that agricultural potential could be expanded significantly. In other sectors, the critical importance of sustained commitments to human capital development is apparent. In this context, the international donor community can support the ongoing transformation process through concerted training and capacity building initiatives that have proven successful elsewhere in the region.     

博鳌亚洲论坛:给海南经济带来什么

举世瞩目的博鳌亚洲论坛第二届年会于2003年11月2～3日在海南博鳌召开.共有来自世界各地区和国家的代表1200余人出席了会议.中国国务院总理温家宝出席会议并作了主旨演讲.     

Post-crisis export performance: The Indonesian experience in regional perspective

This paper examines post-crisis export performance in Indonesia against the backdrop of pre-crisis experience and the comparative export performance of other Southeast Asian countries. It surveys trends and patterns of export performance, focusing on comparative experience in major commodity categories and changing revealed comparative advantage. It also examines the implications for Indonesia's export performance of China's emergence as a major competitor in world trade, considers market prospects for textile and garment exports following the demise of the Multi-fibre Arrangement, and explores the factors contributing to the post-crisis export slowdown. The findings support the view that Indonesia's poor export performance in the post-crisis era is largely supply driven. They strengthen the case for reversal of recent backsliding in macroeconomic policy reform, and for speedy implementation of the unfinished reform agenda. Prudent macroeconomic management, while necessary, is not sufficient to achieve rapid and sustained export growth in an era of rapid economic globalisation.     

美国经济走势及对亚洲经济的影响

本文从需求、投资和政策组合3个方面分析了美国过去10年经济增长的原因,在此基础上展望美国经济未来的短期和中长期走势,探讨了美国经济减速对亚洲以及中国经济的影响,并提出相应的政策建议。     

External shocks and stabilization policy in a small open economy: The Australian experience

Zusammenfassung Externe Schocks und Stabilisierungspolitik in einer kleinen offenen Volkswirtschaft: Die Erfahrung Australiens. — Wir untersuchen die übertragung des international verursachten monet?ren Zyklus, von wirtschaftspolitischen Reaktionen und anderen Rückkoppelungs-Mechanismen. Ver?nderungen der Terms of Trade und die Entdeckung von Rohstoffvorkommen stellen reale Linkages her. Versp?tete Aufwertung (1972) führte zu einem überm?\igen Anwachsen der Geldmenge, wobei deren Neutralisierung die Inflation und das au\enwirtschaftliche Ungleichgewicht zwar verz?gerte, aber schlie\lich sogar verst?rkte. Die Kombination von Aufwertung, Zollsenkungen, Preissteigerungen, Lohndruck und ver?nderten komparativen Vorteilen trug zum Entstehen von Inflation, Arbeitslosigkeit und Zahlungsbilanzdefiziten bei. Die Abwertungen von 1974 und 1976 und ein Regierungswechsel im Jahre 1976 führten den politisch-?konomischen Zyklus fort. Zum Schlu\ interpretieren wir die Ereignisse unter Verwendung gew?hnlicher Au\enhandelsmodelle, die durch Berücksichtigung der Wertpapierm?rkte erg?nzt werden.

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Résumé Les chocs externes et la politique de stabilisation dans une petite économie ouverte: l’expérience australienne. — Nous analysons la transmission du cycle monétaire résultant international, les réponses de politique, et les autres mécanismes de réaction. Les changes en termes d’échange et les découvertes des minéraux introduisent des connexions réelles. La revalorisation tardive (1972) permettait une croissance monétaire excessive dont sa stérilisation en effet retardait l’inflation et le déséquilibre externe, mais les intensifiait définitivement. La combinaison de la revalorisation, des réductions tarifaires, de l’inflation, du pressage de salaire, et d’avantage comparatif qui changeait, tous ces facteurs contribuaient à l’inflation subséquente, au ch?mage et aux déficits externes. La dévalorisation en 1974 et 1976 et une change du gouvernement en 1976 continuaient le cycle politiqueéconomique. Finalement nous interprétons des événements qui utilisent des modèles conventionnels de commerce extérieurs augmentés par des considérations de marché d’actif.

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Resumen Impulsos externos y política de estabilización en una economía abierta peque?a. La experiencia australiana. — Se analiza la transmisión de los ciclos monetarios de origen internacional, respuestas de política y otros mecanismos de ?feedback?. Cambios en los términos del intercambio y descubrimientos de yacimientos mineros introducen vinculaciones verdaderas. Una revaluacíon tardía (1972) permitió un crecimiento monetario excesivo con una estirilización retrasada, agravando por último la inflación y el desequilibrio externo. La combinación de revaluación, rebaja de aranceles, inflación, presión de salarios y ventajas comparativas cambiantes ha contribuido a una inflación persistente, desempleo y deficits externos. Devaluaciones en los a?os 1974 y 1976 y un cambio de gobierno en 1976 continuaron el ciclo politico/económico. Finalmente, interpretamos sucesos usando modelos de intercambio convencional ampliados por consideraciones de mercado de activos.