开放式股票型基金流动性风险实证分析

针对开放式股票型基金,选取2010年2季度数据,利用VaR方法中流动性风险度量L-VaR指标对27只开放式股票型基金分"投资风格"进行实证分析,并结合基金收益率、净赎回额、三种持有资产比例(股票、债券、银行存款和清算备付金)及投资策略对基金管理情况做进一步研究,提出一定基金管理建议。     

A Closer Look at the Size and Value Premium in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

In this study of asset pricing in emerging markets, two questions are asked. First, Is there a size and value premium in markets outside the USA? Second, Can the multifactor model of Fama and French (1996) capture the cross–section of average stock returns for the Malaysian setting? The answers from this study suggest that size and value premium exist in markets outside the USA. We find that the two mimic portfolios, ‘small minus big’ (SMB) and ‘high minus low’ (HML), generate a return of 17.70% and 17.69% per annum, respectively, while the market generates a return of 1.92% per annum. Our findings suggest that the multi–factor model of Fama and French (1996) is a parsimonious representation of the risk factors for Malaysia, explaining returns in an economically meaningful manner. Our findings also reject the claim that the multifactor model results can be explained by the turn–of–the–year effect.     

社会保障基金市场化投资组合策略分析

社会保障基金的保值增值程度如何是直接关系到每个人基本生活能否得到更好保障的大问题。随着社会保障基金的数额越来越庞大,如何更好地运营这笔资金也成为社会越来越关注的问题。通过eviews软件对我国2007年—2014年存款、股票、国债、基金、企业债的收益和风险进行了分析和比较,设计出一系列投资组合模型,阐明了收益与风险之间的关系,并对如何提高社会保障基金的效益提出了建议。     

Portfolio optimization under asset pricing anomalies

Fama and French (1993) find that the SMB and the HML factors explain much of the cross-section stock returns that are unexplained by the CAPM, whereas Daniel and Titman (1997) show that it is the characteristics of the stocks that are responsible rather than the factors. But both arguments are largely based only on expected return comparisons, and little is known about how important each of the two explanations matters to an investor's investment decisions in general and portfolio optimization in particular. In this paper, we show that a mean-variance maximizing investor who exploits the asset pricing anomaly of the CAPM can achieve substantial economic gain than simply holding the market index. Indeed, using monthly Japanese data on the first 50 largest stocks over the period 1980–1997, we find the optimized portfolio constructed from characteristics-based model is the best performing one and has monthly returns more than 0.81 percent (10.16 percent annualized) over the Nikkei 225 index with no greater risk.     

我国私募基金现状及对策研究

随着社会经济的发展,我国居民财富迅速增长。在此宏观背景下,私募基金发展迅速。私募基金作为重要的民间投资力量,对整个资本市场的发展与完善起着不可忽视的作用。然而,与此不相协调的是,当前我国私募基金仍存在政府监管宽松,操作不透明,内幕交易频发、操纵市场等违法违规行为时有发生等诸多问题,无疑这严重损害了基金持有人的利益。私募基金在取得丰厚利润的同时也蕴藏着极大的道德风险和财务风险,亟需引起高度重视,提出相应对策规范私募基金市场。     

Do Mutual Fund Investors Care About Auditor Quality?

We study the influence of perceived auditor quality on investment decisions by bond mutual fund investors. Audits of bond mutual funds require significant auditor expertise. Fund managers estimate daily the fair market values of holdings that are often opaque and illiquid. Managers can use their discretion to manipulate their fund's performance results. While it is known that investment flows into funds that report good past performance, little evidence exists about whether investors' confidence in the reliability of fund financial reports is influenced by auditor quality. Using hand‐collected data from SEC filings, we find that the positive association between reported performance and investment flows is stronger for funds with auditors who are industry specialists and are longer‐tenured, as well as for funds that pay higher audit fees. We do not find that auditor office size strengthens the association. We also find that the presence of industry‐specialist auditors, long‐tenured auditors, and higher audit fees lead to additional disclosure in the form of emphasis‐of‐matter. This study contributes to the streams of research investigating perceived audit quality, fund investment decisions, and auditing for financial services.     

浅析我国私募股权投资基金发展趋势及面临风险

私募股权投资,主要是指投资于非上市股权,或上市公司非公开交易股权的一种投资方式。近年来,中国作为亚洲最有前途的私募股权投资市场,得到了众多国家大型投行的青睐。虽然私募股权投资在中国的发展有很大的机遇,但是由于政策法规不完善等因素,私募股权投资基金在我国还面临许多问题和挑战。本文简要介绍了私募股权投资基金的基本运行原理和我国私募股权投资基金的发展现状,以及在发展过程中所面临的问题,最后提出了一些解决建议。     

参与知情交易提高了基金业绩吗？

本文研究中国股市知情交易概率（probability of informedtrading,PIN,）与基金投资业绩之间的关系,采用Easleyeta1．（1996）提出的删测度,并进一步利用基金投资组合的PIN均值作为基金的信息测度。研究发现,知情交易概率与基金业绩之间存在显著的负相关关系。这说明对于基金而言,参与那些具有更高内幕／知情交易的股票,并没有取得更高的收益,或者即使本身作为知情交易者,基金根据所了解的私有信息所进行的交易并未让他们获得更好的收益,甚至反而给他们带来了损失,这与Barberand O’dean等学者所发现的个人投资者行为相类似。     

Flight to Quality in International Markets: Investors’ Demand for Financial Reporting Quality during Political Uncertainty Events

We examine whether international equity mutual fund managers shift their portfolios toward stocks with higher financial reporting quality (FRQ) during periods of high political uncertainty. Our study is motivated by two primary factors. First, prior research shows evidence of fund managers’ “flight to quality” (e.g., to less risky securities) during periods of uncertainty. Second, recent theoretical research concludes that stocks with higher FRQ are assessed as less sensitive to systematic risk (such as political uncertainty). We employ national elections as exogenous increases in systematic risk in the local markets and accordingly use an international sample of mutual funds that focus on local markets. We find that mutual fund managers shift their equity holdings to stocks with higher FRQ during election periods when political uncertainty is higher. Such a flight‐to‐quality effect is less pronounced for elections with larger expected electoral margins in the pre‐election period (i.e., when the incumbent is more likely to win the election) and for countries with higher transactions costs. In contrast, the effect is more pronounced when governments have greater involvement in the local economy. Our inferences are robust to alternative proxies for political uncertainty and FRQ and to numerous other sensitivity analyses.     

Business Ties and Information Advantage: Evidence from Mutual Fund Trading

This article examines whether ties to portfolio firms’ management via pension business relationships provide mutual funds with an informational advantage. Funds become related to portfolio companies when fund families serve as trustees for firms’ employee pension plans. Selling by related funds is more likely to be motivated by an information advantage than their buying, because the latter is heavily influenced by the desire to secure pension inflows. We find that stocks with larger net sales by related funds experience lower future returns. Information appears related to firm fundamentals, as the return predictability of related funds’ selling concentrates in stocks with negative future earnings surprises. Consistent with an information‐based explanation, the predictive power of related funds’ selling for future returns is more pronounced when information uncertainty about the stock is higher. Our results contribute to a growing literature that shows the sources of informed trading by institutions.     

Analysis of International ETF Tracking Error in Country-Specific Funds

The goal of this study is to determine which fund or country-specific characteristics predict accurate performance in terms of tracking country-specific stock market indices. Ninety-three country-specific exchange-traded funds from 47 different countries are included in this study. In accordance with market integration theory, the Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index is a significant explanatory variable for tracking error. In agreement with the momentum effect, the exchange-traded fund return relative to the total U.S. equity market return is a significant explanatory variable for tracking error. Finally, the exchange-traded fund expense ratio is a significant explanatory variable for tracking error. Investors seeking returns from international investments should carefully examine their country of interest Economic Freedom Index and fund-specific expense ratio in order to anticipate any divergence from their exchange-traded fund return and the benchmark index return.     

私募股权基金市场定位的SWOT分析

本文运用战略管理学中的SWOT分析方法,对我国私募股权基金的市场定位进行了分析。分析结果显示私募股权基金在投资管理和运行机制方面具有优势,而在组织模式、人才、资金来源和市场认可度等方面还比较落后。因此,私募股权基金应该实施SO战略,即发挥企业内部优势,利用外部机会,将其业务定位于中小企业融资业务和产业重组业务。     

Aggregate net flows,inflows, and outflows of equity funds: The U.S. versus Japan

This paper investigates the aggregate cash inflows and outflows of domestic equity mutual funds as well as their net flows for the U.S. and Japan in an international context. The U.S. and Japan are two representative countries that have the largest and most developed fund markets in the Western world and Asia, respectively. For the purpose of analyzing dynamic relationships between market volatility, market return, and cash flow, this paper employs reduced-form and structural vector auto-regression (VAR) models. The analysis shows much different empirical findings between the U.S. and Japan, which can be explained by different culture and investment sentiments.     

美国共同基金的发展及其对中国的启示

本文旨在通过分析美国共同基金的产生发展过程从中寻找出一些对中国投资基金发展有借鉴意义的经验教训。通过参考相关文献对养老基金的研究结论,针对目前国内养老基金的短缺希望能得出切实可行的解决方案。基于中国资本市场存在深刻的结构性问题,境内外学者理论分析与实证数据都表明,基金制养老金体系对于不成熟资本市场的推动作用最为明显。推动养老基金与共同基金市场良性互动,为我国资本市场的壮大发展提供了重要的生成机制。     

股权投资综合指数体系设计与资本市场相对力度分析的研究

多层次资本市场的财经指数应由股票投资市场的指数和股权投资市场的指数共同组成,以我国股权投资市场为研究对象,提出中国股权投资综合指数体系的编制方法,是对我国财经指数研究领域的一个重要补充。股权投资综合指数计算结果表明股权投资市场的总体活跃程度在2011年呈现上升趋势,在2012年到2013年间呈现下降趋势;可选消费行业的股权投资平均活跃程度最高,医药卫生行业的股权投资平均活跃程度最低。进一步探讨股票投资市场和股权投资市场之间相对力度分析指标,2011年股票投资市场相比股权投资市场的相对力度呈现快速下降趋势,2012年到2013年呈现低位波动调整状态;在医药卫生行业领域,股票投资市场相对于股权投资市场的活跃程度更强势一些,资本市场投资资金在医药卫生行业的投向上更倾向于股票投资市场。     

基于Fama-French三因素模型的我国A股市场的实证分析

实证检验了Fama-French三因素模型描述我国A股市场期望超额收益率的解释能力。分别针对上证A股和深证A股做了四类模型的回归分析,为了能够从各类模型的对比中准确地捕捉到各因素影响投资组合期望超额收益率动态特征。结果显示,随着公司规模和账面市值比的变化,市场风险因素的系数变化不大,而规模风险因素的系数和账面市值比风险因素的系数呈现巨大差异,模型的拟合效果表明Fama-French三因素模型在我国A股市场表现出相当高的解释能力。     

基于新保险法的保险资金投资房地产投资信托基金研究及风险控制

为解决保险资金运用渠道狭窄、保值增值难度大的问题,新修订的《中华人民共和国保险法》对保险资金的运用作出规定,拓宽了保险资金的运用渠道。修订后的《保险法》将现行的"买卖政府债券、金融债券",拓宽为"买卖债券、股票、证券投资基金份额等有价证券",并增加了"投资不动产"的内容。因此,保险资金投资体制改革的主要取向之一是鼓励保险资金以股权的方式投资不动产。REITs作为房地产市场股权投资的一种方式,具有非关联性、高流动性和高回报率的特点,这与保险经营具有的强外部性、成本滞后性、资金运转周期长等特点相契合,为保险资金投资房地产搭建了难得的操作平台。     

上海A、B股市场收益率波动性对比研究及预测

运用GARCH(1,1)-M模型对样本期内上海A、B股市场收益率波动性进行了对比研究及预测。结果显示:上证A、B股指数收益率序列均存在"ARCH/GARCH现象";上海A、B股市场中,期望收益与期望风险正向变动;上海A股市场记忆期长于B股市场;长期中,上海B股市场预期收益将超过A股市场。进一步结合基本面情况可知,上海B股市场具有相对较高的长线投资价值。     

中国私募证券基金管理者特征与绩效影响

私募证券基金在我国证券市场中的规模逐渐壮大,是提高直接融资比例和引导民间资本的可能途径。但是目前相关的量化研究较少,无法为金融监管与制度设计提供行为基础。本文以私募证券基金管理者人力资本特征作为主要切入点,建立包含组织制度因素和管理者特征差异的多因素模型来考察投资行为倾向、风险特征的综合效果。主要的发现是组织制度因素在市场环境整体表现中有助动效应以及基金管理者人力资本特征与投资绩效有显著关系。这些发现可以为面向新型金融形态的金融监管体系设计提供决策依据。     

Do Corporate Site Visits Impact Stock Prices?

We examine the stock price impact of corporate site visits using a unique data set of site visits to listed firms in China. Our main findings are as follows. First, the market reaction around corporate site visits is statistically and economically significant and is stronger for group visits, visits conducted by mutual fund managers, visits covering accounting and finance topics, visits to firms with poor information environments, and visits to manufacturing firms. Second, the stock returns around site visits are positively associated with firms’ future performance. Third, the changes in visiting funds’ holdings are more predictive of firms’ future performance than those of nonvisiting funds. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by providing evidence that site visits are important venues for investors to collect information about firms and make informed trades.