The role of banks in the monetary policy transmission in the new EU member states

This paper aims to enrich the knowledge on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the new European Union member states with empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on bank lending. This work is based on individual bank balance sheet data and covers a sample of commercial banks from 10 Central and Eastern European countries over the period 1998–2006. We follow the approach suggested by Kashyap and Stein (1995) and control for cross-section heterogeneities among banks. The results indicate the existence of asymmetric adjustment of loan quantities with respect to specific bank characteristics. Our findings indicate the existence of a functioning bank-lending channel through small banks. This applies in the short-run to several, but not all, of the analysed banks.     

Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the interest rate channel in three small open economies with rigid exchange rate regimes in South East Europe – Bulgaria, Croatia and Macedonia – during the period 2000–2010. Specifically, we examine the size and speed of adjustment of bank lending rates to the changes in money market rates by employing various cointegration methods. In addition, we assess the stability of interest rate passthrough during the transition period, including the recent economic crisis. The results reveal the existence of a cointegrating relationship among some of the interest rates. We find that the long-run pass-through is far from complete with the exception of Macedonia. The shortrun adjustment of lending rates is also low and sluggish, implying that the domestic monetary policy may have a limited impact on the interest rate channel. Finally, the econometric investigation provides mixed evidence on the stability of the interest rate pass-through. Therefore, the overall findings of the paper support the view that in small open economies with rigid exchange rates the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy through the interest rate channel is quite limited.     

货币渠道与信贷渠道的比较研究——基于1994年至2011年季度数据

货币政策传导机制素有货币渠道和信贷渠道之分.我国GDP受到货币供应量和贷款余额的共同影响,在两个标准差的货币政策变量冲击下,贷款余额对我国GDP的影响大于货币供应量,而随着时间的推移,货币渠道的影响在逐渐加大,信贷渠道的影响则相对减弱.     

基于产业异质性的银行贷款政策效应分析——来自上市银行的经验证据

在银行信贷资金配置存在产业间差异的假定下,建立引入产业因素的银行贷款决定模型,考察产业因素影响银行贷款渠道有效性的内在机制,并运用2007年到2010年14家上市银行和5组产业数据展开动态面板模型估计,结果表明:从贷款需求角度看,各个产业的产出对产业贷款的影响效应存在产业间差异;从贷款供给角度看,人民银行运用货币政策工具调控产业贷款的影响效应也存在产业间差异。也就是说,产业因素确实影响到人民银行调控各个特定产业贷款的力度。     

紧缩性政策下银行信贷资金期限配置行为分析

从我国银行贷款传导渠道的典型事实出发,通过建立SVAR模型对紧缩性政策影响下我国银行业信贷资金期限配置行为进行研究,结果表明,当人民银行上调政策利率之后,银行出于防范利率上升所引致的净利息收益下降目的而增加短期贷款并减少中长期贷款,这就意味着,利率风险管理已成为影响银行信贷资金期限配置行为的决定因素。在此情况下,人民银行应充分发挥利率工具在促进信贷结构调整中的作用。     

How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China

Transforming from quantitative-based instruments to price-based instruments is the primary goal of the monetary policy transformation in emerging economies. In essence, this process is gradually replacing the interest rate channel with the credit channel from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which is mainly achieved by promoting financial development to reduce the financial friction. However, there are opposite effects of financial development on the bank lending channel; thus, the topic is controversial. Using banks’ data from 2010 to 2018, this paper studies whether and how the money market development weakens the effect of the bank lending channel in China. The result shows that the mechanism through which the money market development influences the bank lending channel is realized by affecting the substitution elasticity of the asset and liability structure of banks’ balance sheets. Different from the theoretical expectation, the effect of the money market development on the bank lending channel is nonsignificant in China but appears to be weakened when the interest rate market-oriented reform is considered. However, further research based on structural analysis demonstrates that the money market development exerts heterogeneous effects on the bank lending channel under different types of sub-markets and different characteristics of the banks considered.     

The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy in addressing liquidity risk during the financial crisis: The experiences of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank

A number of studies sought to measure the effects of non-standard policy on bank funding markets. This paper carries those estimates a step further by looking at the effects of bank funding market stress on the volume of bank lending. By separately modeling loan supply and demand, we determine how non-standard central bank measures affected bank lending by reducing stress in bank funding markets. Our results suggest that non-standard policy measures lowered bank funding volatility in the US and the Euro Area. Lower bank funding volatility in turn increased loan supply in both regions, contributing to sustained lending activity.     

我国货币政策利率传导渠道的体制转换特征——利率市场化改革进程中的考察

本文考察了我国利率市场化改革进程中货币政策利率传导渠道效应的体制转换特征。实证结果表明:1978年第一季度至2009年第二季度期间我国货币政策传导的管制利率渠道发生了两次体制转换,转换之后贷款基准利率调整对产出和物价水平的效应都降低了。1996年1月至2009年7月期间我国货币政策传导市场利率渠道发生了一次体制转换,转换之后同业拆借利率变动平抑产出和物价波动的效果都更强劲、更持续。这意味着我国的利率市场化改革取得了阶段性成果,也意味着我国利率调控由直接方式逐渐转向主要依靠间接方式不仅是必要的,也是可行的。     

The federal funds market,excess reserves,and unconventional monetary policy

Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, interbank borrowing and lending dropped, whereas reserve holdings of depository institutions skyrocketed, as the Fed injected liquidity into the U.S. banking sector. This paper introduces bank liquidity risk and limited market participation into a real business cycle model with ex ante identical financial intermediaries and shows, in an analytically tractable way, how interbank trade and excess reserves emerge in general equilibrium. Investigating the role of the federal funds market and unconventional monetary policy for the propagation of aggregate real and financial shocks, I find that federal funds market participation is irrelevant in response to standard supply and demand shocks, whereas it matters for “uncertainty shocks”, i.e. mean-preserving spreads in the cross-section of liquidity risk. Liquidity injections by the central bank can absorb the effects of financial shocks on the real economy, although excess reserves might increase and federal funds might be crowded out, as a side effect.     

Financial crises and economic growth

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky due to randomness in the firms’ production. Financial crises occur when output and liquid capital are insufficient to meet required loan payments and systemic defaults occur. In this model, a financial crisis caused by systemic defaults can shift the economy from an equilibrium with positive borrowing/lending to an equilibrium with no borrowing/lending. In this no-lending equilibrium, neither traditional fiscal or monetary policy tools are effective in increasing output. Fiscal and monetary policy can only increase the likelihood of the equilibrium evolving to a borrowing/lending equilibrium.     

我国货币供应方式对市场利率的影响

本文选用2002年至2012年的中国月度数据,采用Johansen协整检验和VEC模型分析的方法,实证研究基础货币同比增长率（MB）和法定存款准备金率同比增长率（RR）联合影响90天期限的全国银行间同业拆借利率（N90D）。结果表明：RR变动是N90D变动的Granger极其显著的原因;MB变动不是N90D变动的Granger原因;MB变动和RR变动两者联合是N90D变动的显著Granger原因,N90D与MB、RR存在长期均衡关系：RR每上升1%,N90D就会上升20.75%,MB每上升1%,N90D就会下降0.47%。法定存款准备金率变动造成市场利率剧烈波动,而公开市场操作对市场利率影响微弱。本文特提出政策建议：1、进一步推进利率市场化;2、减少法定存款准备金率的使用;3、货币政策中介目标逐步过度到利率指标。     

需求不确定的电商供应链融资模式选择

探讨在市场需求不确定情况下,对电商和中小型供应商均有利的融资模式即银行借贷模式和电商借贷模式。研究发现,影响电商供应链各节点企业利润的重要指标是银行贷款利率,有利于电商供应链各节点企业利润的银行贷款利率存在一个确定的区间。若银行贷款利率属于该区间,则电商借贷模式更有利,否则银行借贷模式更有利。     

Causal ordering and ‘The bank lending channel’

The bank lending channel implies the Federal Reserve can influence real income by controlling the level of intermediated loans. Using the notion of causality developed by Simon (1953) and the causal order methodology developed by Hoover (1990), I test for an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. I find loans did cause real income; there is evidence that a bank lending channel did exist in the 1960s. The data appears to show, however, that by the early 1990s the bank lending channel was no longer operative. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLE

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission – as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE – it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.     

Fed Credit Policy: What is a Lender of Last Resort?

Discussions of the Fed׳s financial crisis lending – and its role as “Lender of Last Resort” more generally – often overlook the distinction between monetary policy and credit policy. Central bank actions constitute monetary policy if they alter the quantity of the bank׳s monetary liabilities, but constitute credit policy if they alter the composition of the bank׳s portfolio without affecting the outstanding amount of monetary liabilities. In the 19th century, Henry Thornton and Walter Bagehot advocated Lender of Last Resort policies as a means of expanding the money supply when the demand for money surged in a crisis. In contrast, the Fed׳s recent crisis lending for the most part left its outstanding monetary liabilities unaffected, and thus represented credit policy, not Lender of Last Resort activity. Credit allocation in a crisis is potentially costly because it affects market participants׳ beliefs about the likelihood of future central bank rescues, which in turn reduces their incentive to protect themselves against financial distress and thus exacerbates financial instability. Credible limits on credit policy thus are critical to central banks׳ core policy mission. One path to establishing such limits is to create “living wills” that detail how to resolve large, complex financial firms without government support.     

货币政策地区效应——基于地区总供给曲线的理论与实证分析

本文着重检验了我国区域经济中的基于产出缺口的地区短期总供给曲线的存在性,进而分析地区短期总供给曲线对货币政策地区效应的影响。文章首先对地区短期总供给曲线存在的可能性进行了理论解释,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算了我国各地区的产出缺口,然后运用ARMA模型说明预期通货膨胀率形成机制,最后以通货膨胀率与其预期之差、外部需求冲击等作为解释变量对产出缺口进行回归,结果发现,我国东部地区的短期总供给曲线较中西部地区的短期总供给曲线更平坦,因而东部地区货币政策效应要强于中西部地区。     

Risky bank lending and countercyclical capital buffers

We study the properties of a monetary economy with an essential role for risky bank lending. Banks issue deposits and lend to entrepreneurs. Because banks׳ lending rate cannot be made contingent on aggregate shocks, and because banks face capital adequacy regulations, they require a capital buffer against loan losses. Capital adequacy regulations are modeled on the Basel-III rules, including a minimum capital adequacy ratio, an endogenous capital conservation buffer, and a countercyclical capital buffer. We find that a countercyclical capital buffer leads to a significant increase in welfare. It also reduces the need for countercyclical adjustments in policy interest rates.     

In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking

Monetary policy can have an impact on economic and financial stability through the risk taking of banks. Falling interest rates might induce investment into risky activities. This paper provides evidence on the link between monetary policy and bank risk taking. We use a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) for the US for the period 1997–2008. Besides standard macroeconomic indicators, we include factors summarizing information provided in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Terms of Business Lending (STBL). These data provide information on banks׳ new loans as well as interest rates for different loan risk categories and different banking groups. We identify a risk-taking channel of monetary policy by distinguishing responses to monetary policy shocks across different types of banks and different loan risk categories. Following an expansionary monetary policy shock, small domestic banks increase their exposure to risk. Large domestic banks do not change their risk exposure. Foreign banks take on more risk only in the mid-2000s, when interest rates were ‘too low for too long’.     

INTEREST RATE PASS‐THROUGH: A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE LITERATURE

The interest rate pass‐through describes how changes in a reference rate (the monetary policy, money market or T‐bill rate) transmit to bank lending rates. We review the empirical literature on the interest rate pass‐through and systematize it by means of meta‐analysis and meta‐regressions. Using the pass‐through to corporate lending rates as the baseline, we find systematically lower estimated pass‐through coefficients in studies that focus on the pass‐through to consumer lending rates and rates on long‐term loans. Also studies estimating the pass‐through by averaging all lending rates into one category report a lower pass‐through. Importantly, the interest rate pass‐through is significantly influenced by the country's macro‐financial environment. In economies with deepening stock markets, the estimated pass‐through strengthens significantly. Interestingly, after the global financial crisis, the pass‐through weakened across the board, including because of growing trade openness and supply chain financing, rising volatility and stock market turnovers, as well as declining central bank independence. Inflation targeting frameworks, if in place, helped diminish this pass‐through weakening.     

对央行住房贷款调整及房地产政策方向的分析

本文在今年3月17日央行出台新的住房贷款利率政策以控制目前房地产市场过热现象的背景下,对房地产政策加以分析。通过对以往政策的回顾和新出台的以金融手段抑制需求的政策的分析,得出在长期内控制房地产市场过热问题的关键是供给政策和需求政策的配套运用。