Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed and six emerging financial markets with contagion and spillover effects. We employ a trivariate asymmetric BEKK-type GARCH-in-Mean (MGARCH-M) approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and covariance of returns of stock market index, the world market portfolio and bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the local currency. The results show that the world market and currency risks are not only priced in the stock markets, but also time-varying. It is found that currency betas are much more volatile than the world market betas, and currency betas in the emerging markets are more volatile than those in the developed markets. We find empirical evidence of contagion effect and spillovers between stock market and foreign exchange market during the recent global financial crisis, and the effect is stronger in the emerging markets than that in the developed markets. Two applications are provided to illustrate the usefulness of time-varying currency betas.     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

The Stock Market,Monetary Policy,and Economic Development

In this article, we examine the impact of financial market development on the level of economic development. In particular, we explore this issue in a setting where individuals face idiosyncratic risk. Incomplete information also provides a transaction role for money so that monetary policy can be studied. While an active banking sector promotes risk sharing, we incorporate a market for equity by allowing individuals to trade capital across generations. In this manner, each asset and financial market in our model fulfills a distinct economic function. Consistent with recent empirical work, we find that the impact of access to a stock market may be indeterminate—the economy may respond with significant gains in capital accumulation and risk sharing, or there may be relatively little impact. We also show that the effects of monetary policy vary across the level of financial development. In economies with small stock markets, increasing the amount of liquidity will cause capital accumulation to decline. By comparison, in advanced economies, capital accumulation improves.     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

The Impact of Macroeconomic Risk on Asset Prices in Ghana, 1997–2002

Abstract: The dwindling nature of overseas development assistance in the early part of the 1990s called for the establishment of capital markets in some African countries, including Ghana, with the view to increasing foreign direct investments and achieving sustainable inflows, growth and development. One important factor which affects the determination of prices and the growth of capital markets is macroeconomic risk which is quite high in developing countries. Following works done on advanced stock markets, this study seeks to investigate the impact of six macroeconomic risk factors on asset pricing in the various industrial classification — financial, manufacturing, food and beverages, distribution and mining under the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) for the period January 1997 to December 2002. Using the arbitrage pricing methodology developed by Ross (1976) and Chen et al. (1986) , the study revealed that investors in Ghana considered three main macroeconomic risk factors — short‐term interest rate risk, inflation risk and the term structure of the country's interest rate in the determination of the various industrial asset prices during the period under consideration. Analysis of the risks and returns profile of the industries also shows that financial assets made the best gains on the market. Both general and specific policy recommendations aimed at improving the performance of the GSE are explored.     

Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets

Work on the impact of U.S. monetary policy on emerging financial markets mostly focuses on official target rate announcements; empirical evidence using data on informal communication channels, such as speeches, is scant. Employing a unique data set covering formal and informal communication channels in a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model framework, we provide comprehensive evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy on 17 emerging equity market returns over the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that both monetary policy actions and communications have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate change surprises are an important driver of emerging market returns. However, informal communications—particularly when taking into account their higher frequency—have a larger (cumulative) influence on returns than do target rate surprises. Third, during the recent financial crisis, central bank communication played an even more pronounced role. Finally, American emerging markets react more to communications than do non‐American markets.     

中国互联网金融现状及风险研究

互联网金融在中国发展的如火如荼,扩大了金融服务的边界和市场。但是互联网金融业有相应的信用风险、市场选择风险、技术风险和法律风险,这些风险都加大了金融市场不稳定的可能性。故互联网金融企业应加强安全体系、风险控制体系建设,政府加大立法力度,共同防范互联网金融风险。     

中国衍生品市场风险的形成和管理

随着我国对外开放程度的增加和与世界其他经济体联系的紧密,我国未来可能受到外部金融风险的可能性就会增加,为此,我国应采用衍生工具来规避金融风险。本文研究了我国可能在衍生市场出现的风险,并分析了其产生的原因,进而提出了规避可能出现风险的办法和对衍生市场监管的措施。     

浅议企业内部控制与税务风险防范

内部控制是企业管理制度的重要组成部分,也是企业财务控制的重要方面。在市场经济中,企业总是在各种风险中运营,面临着财务风险、经营风险等。企业税务风险也是企业不可避免的风险之一,强化内部控制,规范运营流程,可以有效地防范和减小企业税务风险。     

Developing ASEAN‐5 bond markets: what needs to be done?

This paper examines development challenges facing bond markets in the ASEAN‐5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand). It first assesses their level of development, finding that bond market frameworks—that is, the quality of the physical infrastructure, monitoring, and regulation—compare favourably with those in other emerging markets. The paper then considers possible further enhancements, including changes in disclosure practices as well as reforms of ratings agencies, central bank liquidity management, and taxation. It also considers steps to develop derivatives markets, which in some countries remain quite small. Finally, the article draws lessons from the global financial crisis in developed markets for the future development of ASEAN‐5 markets.     

对我国金融衍生工具会计准则发展的几点建议

目前随着经济发展,我国的金融衍生工具市场组建发展成熟。在这个过程中,对金融市场的管理监督愈发重要,金融衍生市场的会计准则是对金融衍生工具市场进行监督的最基础的制度。本文对我国金融衍生工具会计准则的发展提出一些建议,旨在规避在经济发展过程中出现的金融市场风险。     

关于我国股票市场金融功能深化问题浅议

股票市场是一国证券市场的主体,发挥着经济晴雨表和资源配置等的多种功能。我国股票市场20世纪90年代以来发展迅速,但存在着风险特殊性、结构性、功能性等多方面的问题。文章从国有股流通策略、股票市场交易体系的完善、股票市场的监督管理等方面探讨我国股票市场金融功能深化的合理性渠道。     

略论发展我国天气衍生产品市场

作为金融工程创新的结晶,天气衍生产品在防范由非灾难性天气因素产生的风险方面显示了巨大的活力和创造性。在我国发展天气风险市场,将有利于保障我国重要行业的发展,推动金融市场和资本市场的繁荣,提高我国在国际市场的竞争力。     

Central Bank Policy in a More Perfect Financial System

Financial innovation increases markets' liquidity and provides economic agents with new instruments to better handle risks, but it reduces the efficacy of monetary policy while strengthening the logic and force of the “unholy trinity”. Increased liquidity of financial markets and increased leverage of financial positions imply that speculators can attack unsustainable fixed exchange rates faster and more powerfully than ever. The rapid innovation of new financial instruments in these markets also implies the futility to “throw sand in the wheels” through regulation or the introduction of transaction taxes. The higher asset substitutability generated by the emergence of derivatives makes the definition of “money,” particularly of broad monetary aggregates, increasingly difficult. In a more complete financial market system central banks find it harder to predict the effect of a given monetary impulse on real output and employment with any reasonable precision. Discretionary monetary policies aimed at output and employment become more uncertain. Consequently, central banks should focus on the long-run goal of price stability.     

基于Copula-GARCH模型的原油市场和股票市场相关性研究

由于原油市场和股票市场之间的联动性日益增强,因此研究两个市场之间的关联特征,分析原油价格波动对股市的影响,有助于规避风险,保证经济持续平稳地增长.采用Copula-GARCH模型对WTI原油价格的收益率序列和NASDAQ股指的收益率序列进行实证分析.结果表明,GARCH(1,1)-t模型拟合两个序列的条件边缘分布效果最好,时变SJC Copula模型比常相关Copula模型能更好地刻画两个市场之间的相关关系.两个收益率序列之间存在正的相关关系,且相关关系具有时变性,相关结构具有一定的不对称性,上尾相关系数小于下尾相关系数,即两个市场同时出现价格极端下跌的可能性更大.这为中国金融市场风险管理,规避油价波动对股市的冲击提供一定的参考依据.     

Understanding the Growth of African Financial Markets*

Abstract: This paper examines empirically the determinants of financial market development in Africa with an emphasis on banking systems and stock markets. The results show that income level, creditor rights protection, financial repression, and political risk are the main determinants of banking sector development in Africa, and that stock market liquidity, domestic savings, banking sector development, and political risk are the main determinants of stock market development. We also find that liberalizing the capital account promotes financial market development only in countries with high incomes, well‐developed institutions, or both. The powerful impacts of political risk on both banking sector and stock market development suggest that resolution of political risk may be important to the development of African financial markets.     

Financial Reporting Opacity and Expected Crash Risk: Evidence from Implied Volatility Smirks

The recent financial crisis has stimulated a renewed interest in understanding the determinants of stock price crash risk (i.e., left tail risk). Recent research shows that opaque financial reports enable managers to hide and accumulate bad news for extended periods. When the accumulated bad news reaches a certain tipping point, it will be suddenly released to the market at once, resulting in an abrupt decline in stock price (i.e., a crash). This study extends this line of research by examining the impact of financial reporting opacity on perceived or expected crash risk. Prominent economists, such as Olivier Blanchard, argue that removing the perception of tail risks (in addition to realized tail risks) is crucial in restoring investor confidence and stabilizing the stock market. Using the steepness of option implied volatility skew as a proxy for perceived crash risk, we find that accrual management, the presence of financial statement restatements, and auditor‐attested internal control weakness are all positively and significantly associated with the level of perceived crash risk. Our results suggest that improving financial reporting transparency is an important mechanism for firms and policymakers to reduce the perception of tail risks and stabilize the stock market.     

中国金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态研究

为了揭示中国金融体系与宏观经济运行的系列结构性变化及其关联动态,文章分别基于货币流动性宽松程度、剩余收益模型以及银行资产负债表,对中国货币市场、股票市场与银行体系的风险进行了测度和评估;并在分析上述三个金融子市场风险变动规律及其传递机制的基础上,运用时变参数向量自回归模型实证检验了各金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态。研究发现:在金融危机爆发前后,不同金融市场风险之间的传递关系发生了重要转变,并且与宏观经济景气变动之间的交互影响也存在显著的阶段性差异,呈现出"良性循环"与"恶性螺旋"的非对称性切换。这些研究为中国新时期积极转变宏观经济调控政策决策机制、创新宏观经济调控与金融监管模式,实现宏观经济与金融体系的双重稳定提供了有益的经验依据与政策启示。     

How is Fintech reshaping the traditional financial markets? New evidence from InsurTech and insurance sectors in China

We examine the effect of Fintech on the market structure of traditional financial markets, and focus particularly on InsurTech and the insurance sector. We find that InsurTech has significantly reduced the non-life insurance sector's market concentration but plays a limited role in the life insurance sector's market structure. The results are not driven by potential reverse causality and remain unchanged when we employ an instrumental variables approach and use an alternative supply-side InsurTech index. We further explore the underlying mechanisms and find that, instead of competing directly with insurance companies, Fintech companies provide insurance technologies to traditional insurers and help them lower entry barriers and reduce operating costs. Our paper sheds light on how InsurTech is reshaping traditional insurance sectors, and the results are generalizable to Fintech and financial markets.     

Information asymmetry,market segmentation,and cross-listing: Implications for event study methodology

This paper connects three subjects related to international financial markets – (i) information asymmetry, (ii) market segmentation, and (iii) cross-listings – and highlights their implication for event study methodology. When firms list equities on more than one exchange, and the exchanges are characterized by different information sets, a problem arises as to which exchange(s) to include in the event study sample. If market segmentation impedes the arbitrage of these multiple responses, then the use of a single listing (for a firm that is cross-listed) can yield abnormal return estimates that are biased. In such circumstances, using returns from all the markets in which a firm's securities are listed not only increases the sample size (often an important consideration when undertaking event studies in emerging markets), but also enables full-information abnormal return estimates to be obtained. What is required is a method that extracts the independent information from each listing while counting the common information only once. In this paper, we develop an estimation procedure that achieves these twin objectives. We then apply our approach to an event study of Chinese overseas mergers and acquisitions, and compare results from alternative samples and estimators. We demonstrate that including return data from cross-listings of the same firm can result in substantially different conclusions.