The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland

The Demand for M3 and Inflation Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland. — This paper argues that money should continue to play an important role in monetary policy even if a central bank pursues a strategy based on inflation forecasts. Within the context of an error correction model, the paper delivers empirical evidence that both the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 and the size of excess M3 incorporate useful information with regard to future inflation in Switzerland. This evidence strongly suggests that money should remain an important indicator for monetary policy.     

The impact of relative prices on tourism demand for Mauritius: An empirical analysis

The present study assesses the impact of relative prices on tourism flows in Mauritius. To account for dynamism in tourism flows modelling, a dynamic time series analysis – namely the vector autoregressive model – is employed. The results show that relative price measures have a long-run impact on international tourism flows, indicating that tourists are sensitive to price levels. The relative average cost in the different competing destinations is also reported to be positive and significant, indicating that the impact of relative price changes in foreign destinations competing with Mauritius tourism matters; thus indicating a certain degree of substitutability between Mauritian and its regional competitors’ tourism. Tourism infrastructure, income in country of origin and the island's level of development are confirmed to be key factors in the tourist selection decision. Finally, overall, short-run estimates confirm the above results.     

An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function

This study uses the cointegration concept to analyze the long-run relationship of China's aggregate import demand function for the period 1970–1999. The conventional specification for the import demand function reveals that the volume of imports demanded responds to domestic activity and relative prices. This study considers four definitions of domestic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), GDP minus exports [IMF Staff Pap. 45 (1998) 236], “national cash flow” [Econ. Lett. 74 (2002) 265], and final expenditure components [Appl. Econ. 21 (1989) 957]. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between these measures of domestic activity and China's import demand. Overall, domestic activity and relative prices are inelastic in the long run. This study also highlights some policy implications.     

Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination

This paper examines empirically the causal relationship between budget deficits and trade deficits for Brazil from 1973:1Q through 1991:4Q. This relationship is investigated in the context of Granger's test of causality. The final prediction error criterion, as outlined by Hsiao [1981], is applied in determining the appropriate lag length of the two variables. Empirical results suggested the presence of bilateral causality between trade deficits and budget deficits.     

The short-run demand for money in germany: Some caveats for empirical work

Zusammenfassung Die kurzfristige Geldnachfrage in Deutschland : Einige Warnungen für die empirische Arbeit. -Dieser Aufsatz liefert einige Evidenz für die Hypothese, da? der übliche Ansatz mit partieller Anpassung ein unzureichendes Verfahren ist, um eine Strukturgleichung für die Geldnachfrage in den siebziger Jahren zu sch?tzen. Die Hypothese wird best?tigt, indem die konventionellen Gleichungen für die sechziger und siebziger Jahre getrennt gesch?tzt werden, wobei für die beiden Zeitr?ume ein unterschiedliches W?hrungssystem angenommen wird. 1973 erfolgt der übergang von fixen zu flexiblen Wechselkursen, und au?erdem breitet sich die monetaristische Lehre unter den Zentralbanken aus mit einem entsprechenden Wechsel von der Preiszur Mengenregulierung. Die Regressionsergebnisse für die beiden Teilzeitr?ume differieren tats?chlich erheblich ebenso wie die Ergebnisse von Vektor-Autoregressionen und eines Versuchs, Innovationen zu berücksichtigen, wobei wiederum die zwei W?hrungssysteme zugrunde gelegt wurden.

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Résumé La demande de la monnaie à court terme pour l'Allemagne: Quelques avertissements pour le travail empirique. -Cet article démontre quelque évidence pour l'hypothèse que l'approche conventionelle d'ajustement partiel est une procédure inadéquate pour estimer l'équation structurelle pour la demande de la monnaie dans les années soixante-dix.V hypothèse est affirmée par l'estimation des équations conventionnelles, séparément pour les années soixante et soixante-dix, pour lesquelles on peut supposer un changement du régime monétaire. Il y avait un changement d'un système de taux de change fixe à un système de taux de change flexible en 1973 et la propagation de la philosophie monétariste parmi les banques centrales de suivre une règle de quantité au lieu d'une règle de prix. Les résultats de régression pour les deux sous-échantillons en effet diffèrent considérablement aussi bien que les résultats d'autoregression de vecteur et l'exercice considérant l'innovation que l'auteur faisait encore une fois pour les deux régimes.

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Resumen La demanda de dinero a corto plazo en Alemania: algunos problemas empfricos. -Este trabajo presenta evidencia empírica en favor de la hipótesis de que el método convencional de ajuste parcial podría ser inadecuado para estimaciones de la compositión de la demanda de dinero para los a?os setenta. La hipótesis es verificada con estimaciones independientes de las ecuaciones convencionales para los a?os sesenta y setenta, en los cuales se supone que hubo un cambio de régimen. Este consiste en el paso del sistema de cambios fijos a uno de cambios flexibles y en la aceptación general por parte de los bancos centrales de la filosofía monetarista en el sentido de utilizar una regla de cantidad en vez de una de precio. Los resultados de las regresiones para las dos submuestras defieren considerablemente, como también los resultados obtenidos estimando un esquema autoregresivo y un modelo de innovatión, este último para cada uno de los regímenes.

     

The market for corporate subsidiaries in Japan: An empirical study of trades among listed firms

We investigate trades of wholly- or partially-owned subsidiaries between firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) for the years 1996–2010, to explore the economic impact in terms of strategic refocusing, stock market valuation and performance effects. By pairing both sides to each deal, we show differences in firm characteristics, returns, and subsequent performance of buying and selling firms. Unlike mergers between whole firms, most subsidiary deals straddled different industries. Most sellers were larger, more diversified and less profitable than buyers. Our event study reveals that abnormal returns were positive for buyers yet insignificantly different from zero for sellers. However, subsidiary sales in the core business earned negative returns, the more so the larger the deal. An analysis of ex-post operating results shows that the performance of sellers often declined after the trade, in particular for firms that divested a core-related subsidiary. We conclude that subsidiary trades in Japan in this period contributed importantly to strategic repositioning and a more efficient use of corporate assets.     

Unemployment risk and buffer-stock saving: An empirical investigation in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to investigate, using micro data, the strength in Japan of the precautionary saving motive. While numerical simulations suggest the economic importance of precautionary saving, the empirical evidence is mixed. In this paper, we apply the buffer-stock saving model and focus on the effect of unemployment risk on wealth accumulation. We find that uncertainty has a positive and statistically significant effect on the wealth-to-income ratio, and that buffer-stock savings account for 6 or 15 percent of net financial assets. Housing loans and expenditures associated with children decrease this ratio.     

地理标志农产品对城乡收入差距的影响研究——基于全国30个省份面板数据的实证分析

在剔除三部门重合地理标志农产品后,基于2010—2018年中国30个省份(因数据缺失,未包括西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型和面板门槛回归模型,实证研究地理标志农产品对城乡收入差距影响的空间溢出效应和非线性影响。研究结果显示,城乡收入差距的空间集聚特征明显,且具有显著的正向空间自相关性;地理标志农产品能够抑制本省域及邻近省域城乡收入差距的扩大;随着经济发展水平的提高、交通基础设施水平的提升,地理标志农产品缩小城乡收入差距的作用逐渐增强。     

The role of R&D in high-technology trade: An empirical analysis

Conclusion This paper attempts to establish the relationship between the level of R&D activities of a country and its trade performance in high-technology products. Empirical evidence based on the limited data used in the paper shows that this relationship appears to be quite significant. An analysis of the implications of this relationship reveals that the low level of R&D in Canada is due to, among other factors, the prevalence of foreign ownership of Canadian manufacturing industries, and the resource-based characteristic of the Canadian economy. Given the nature of foreign-owned firms, the paper suggests that countries should not rely on them as a crucial instrument in the creation of an indigenous capacity to produce high-technology products which are competitive at the world level. Instead, domestic policies aimed at the development and nurturing of the countries' own scientific and technological skills are required. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author. They should not be construed as the official views of the Ministry of State for Science and Technology of the Government of Canada. Research assistance provided by Tom Wudwud and Penny Robinson is well appreciated. The author, however, is responsible for any omissions or errors that remain.     

Gatekeeper incentives and demand inducement: An empirical analysis of care managers in the Japanese long-term care insurance program

This study analyzes the incentives and supplier-induced demand of care managers, who are intermediaries between consumers and service providers in the Japanese social insurance program for long-term care. Care managers can be considered as pure gatekeepers, in that their function is limited to referral people to specialists and they themselves do not provide care. Care managers are rewarded by capitation, which is considered as a cost-effective payment mechanism for insurers. However, many care managers actually work for firms that also operate as service providers. Service providers are rewarded by a fee-for-service payment and can have a motivation to induce excess consumer demand. The violation of the neutrality of care managers might result in a financial burden on social insurance. In this study, we empirically test whether there is a positive correlation between care manager density and care costs, which might imply the existence of supplier-induced demand. Our results show a positive correlation, particularly in the case of care managers who work for firms that jointly operate in service provision sectors. Based on these results, we conduct a quantitative analysis, and show that the demand induced by care managers might produce a considerable financial burden on social insurance.     

近代中国和日本总需求变动的比较分析

从19世纪80年代开始，中日两国开始经济近代化。与传统社会相比较，近代中日两国是处在一种由封闭经济向开放经济，自然经济向市场经济转变的过渡时期。过渡型经济形态的本质特征就决定了近代中日经济发展过程中的总需求发生了很大变化，其对近代中日经济增长的贡献力也更加突出。本文从宏观的角度，采用实证分析和动态分析方法，就近代中日总需求的变动趋势及其特征展开实证分析，探究其形成原因，比较中日两国总需求变动的总体特征和异同，辨析中日两国经济发展的历史经验和模式。     

An empirical analysis of college enrollment in The Netherlands

Summary In this paper we present empirical results on the demand for university training in the Netherlands. We integrate investment and consumption aspects of education and explicitly take account of the existence of capital market imperfections. The model has been estimated using time-series data. We pay attention to the dynamic structure and the nonlinearity of the functional specification. To a large extent the qualitative effects of the variables suggested by the theory on college enrollment correspond to the results. The effect of tuition on enrollment is not significantly different from zero at the 5 percent level. The elasticity of male enrollment for financial aid is substantial, but the elasticity for per capita income is even higher (close to one). The model allows deriving projections of college enrollment and investigating the impact of government policy.The authors gratefully acknowledge comments on an earlier version by S.K. Kuipers and J. Pen.     

The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis

This paper examines whether institutional changes have affected the interaction between the real economy and monetary policy in China. We find evidence that structural changes in the financial and real sectors over the period of our study did influence the way in which monetary policy affected the real economy. There were an increasing influence of interest rates on output over 1984 to 1997 and non-state owned enterprises were increasingly reacting to monetary policy changes, suggesting that banking sector reforms were having effects, despite the fact that most credit was allocated to the loss-making State sector.     

贸易开放度、劳动力市场扭曲与全要素生产率——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

基于空间计量模型,使用中国省级层面数据探究劳动力市场扭曲程度和贸易依存度对地区全要素生产率的影响.研究结果表明,劳动力市场扭曲抑制了地区经济增长,贸易开放水平对经济发展有着正向促进作用.对比中国不同区域可以发现,东部地区在劳动力市场与国际贸易市场上发展较为完善,中西部地区还需缓和中西部地区农业部门与非农部门的劳动力市场不平衡、增加贸易对外开放程度、增加企业自主研发等方式来提升地区全要素生产率.     

The effects of the social norm on cigarette consumption: Evidence from Japan using panel data

Using Japan's prefecture-level panel data from 1989 to 2001, this paper examines the influence of the social norm on a person's smoking behavior when the complementary relationship between smoking and drinking is taken into account. The key findings through a dynamic panel model controlling for unobserved prefecture-specific fixed effects are as follows: (1) influence from others is stronger when people live more closely and cohesively. A tightly knit society results in a reduction of smoking through smoking-related interaction. (2) Smoking and drinking have a complementary relationship: greater initial consumption of alcohol results in larger consumption of cigarettes. (3) The complementary relationship between smoking and drinking is attenuated if the cost of committing the annoying conduct (i.e., smoking) is high.Overall, this empirical study provides evidence that the psychological effect of the presence of surrounding people has a direct significant effect upon smoking behavior and, furthermore, that it attenuates the complementary relationship between smoking and drinking, thereby reducing cigarette consumption. These results indicate that not only formal rules but also tacitly formed informal norms are effective deterrents to smoking.     

The expansion of manufactured exports in developing countries: An empirical assessment of s upply and demand issues

Zusammenfassung Die Expansion der Industriegüterausfuhr aus Entwicklungsl?ndern: Eine empirische Analyse von Angebots- und Nachfragefaktoren. — Gegenstand der Untersuchung, die im wesentlichen auf den Ergebnissen von fünfzehn am Institut für Weltwirtschaft durchgeführten L?nderstudien aufbaut, ist die Frage, ob das Exportangebot von Entwicklungsl?ndern an Halb- und Fertigwaren elastisch auf staatliche Exportf?rderungsmaβnahmen reagiert und ob der Exportexpansion und -diversifizierung, von der Aufnahmef?higkeit der Industriel?nder her gesehen, enge Grenzen gezogen sind. Es wird gezeigt, daβ eine Exportf?rderungspolitik, die sich im realen effektiven Wechselkurs niederschl?gt, exportstimulierend wirkt. In übereinstimmung mit der Heckscher-Ohlin-Hypothese übernehmen dabei arbeits- und/oder rohstoffintensive Produkte die Rolle des Vorreiters; mit fortschreitender weltmarktorientierter Industrialisierung entstehen Spezialisierungsschwerpunkte dann im Bereich von Produktions- und Investitionsgütern mit standardisierter Technik. Daβ ein solcher Prozeβ der Exportdiversifizierung die Industriel?nder vor groβe strukturelle Anpassungsprobleme stellt, braucht, im ganzen gesehen, nicht befürchtet zu werden. Doch k?nnte in produktspezifischer Sicht hier und da der von Entwicklungsl?ndern ausgel?ste Angebotsdruck fühlbar werden und in Industriel?ndern protektionistische Abwehrmaβnahmen heraufbeschw?ren.

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Résumé L’expansion des exportations de produits manufacturiers des pays en voie de développement: Une analyse empirique des facteurs d’offre et de démande. — Le sujet de cette analyse, qui base généralement sur les résultats de quinze études de pays faites à l’Institut für Weltwirtschaft, est la question si l’offre d’exportation des pays en voie de développement concernant les produits demi-finis et finis réagit élastiquement aux mesures publiques de l’encouragement à l’exportation et s’il y a des barrières étroites pour l’expansion et la diversification des exportations de la part de la capacité d’absorption des pays industrialisés. Nous démontrons qu’une politique de l’encouragement d’exportation qui se traduit en réel taux de change effectif a de l’influence stimulante sur les exportations. Conformé à l’hypothèse de Heckscher-Ohlin les produits intensifs à main-d’oeuvre et aux premières matières jouent le r?le de l’avant-courrier, puis, suivant l’industrialisation avan?ante et orientée au marché mondial, il y a des points capitaux de spécialisation en domaine des biens de production et d’investissement avec une technique standardisée. En général il ne faut pas craindre qu’un tel procès de la diversification d’exportation mette les pays industrialisés en problèmes d’ ajustement. Cependant il est possible que la pression d’offre suscitée par les pays en voie de développement se manifeste en vue spécifique au produit ?a et là et provoque des mesures défensives protectives dans les pays industrialisés.

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Resumen La expansión de la exportatión de productos manufacturados de países en vía de desarrollo: Un análisis empírico de factores de la oferta y de la demanda. — El presente estudio, basado en investigaciones realizadas en el Institut für Weltwirtschaft sobre 15 países, tiene por objetivo analizar la elasticidad de la productión de manufacturas para la exportatión con respecto a medidas estatales de fomento y examinar la capacidad de absorción por parte de los países industrializados. Queda evidente que una política de fomento a la exportación, que se refleja en el tipo de cambio efectivo real, surte efectos positivos. De acuerdo con la hipótesis Heckscher-Ohlin se adelantan los productos intensivos en el uso de mano de obra y/o de primeras materias; a medida que avanza el proceso de industrialización hacia afuera surge la especialización también en los sectores de productos intermedios y de bienes de capital fabricados con una tecnología estandardizada. Ko hay por qué temer, desde un punto de vista macroeconómico, que este proceso de diversificación de exportaciones cause a los países industrializados serios problemas de reajuste estructural. Pero es posible que en el caso de algunos productos determinados la presión competitiva ejercida por los países en vía de desarrollo se haga sentir y origine medidas proteccionistas por parte de los países industrializados.

     

An empirical examination of IPO underpricing in the Chinese A-share market

Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse hypothesis is the main reason for the high IPO underpricing in China. The signaling hypothesis is not empirically supported in the Chinese market during the sample period.