Is reducing energy intensity enough to put the oil-rich GCC states on a more sustainable environmental path?

Although energy wealth rankings place the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries among the richest in the world, these economies face unsustainable growth in energy use and continuous environmental degradation. This paper examines the long-run relationship between per capita \(\hbox {CO}_2\) emissions and energy intensity in the GCC, while controlling for economic activity, the size of the manufacturing sector, and institutional qualities. We use heterogeneous panel techniques that account for heterogeneity and cross-country dependence for the period 1971–2011. We find that energy intensity and emissions are cointegrated in all GCC countries and that conservation and energy efficiency policies have greater potential in reducing emissions in Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE. A regional goal of mitigating emissions by 10% would require a reduction in energy intensity by 12%, on average. Last, we find that judiciary independence is an essential institutional quality that ensures the successful implementation and the stringent enforcement of long-term environmental policies.     

Technology and international competitiveness

This article analyses the structure of trade and trade performance of the largest six OECD economies in the 1980s. The article is concerned in particular with the role of technology and innovation and the relationship between specialization in sectors of high, medium or low technology intensity and trade performance. It assesses the argument that the maintenance of international competitiveness requires the advanced economies to become internationally competitive, and to specialize, in higher technology sectors, given that there is increasing competition, especially from newly industrializing countries in low technology products. Section I considers the theoretical basis of this hypothesis; Section II assesses whether it is compatible with data on manufacturing trade performance in the 1980s.     

Exports, Returns to Scale, and Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Taiwanese Manufacturing Industries

The paper examines the relevance of international scale economies and international market efficiency of trade based on the firm-level data of Taiwanese manufacturing industries. The author first constructs a simple analytical framework to measure the extent of scale economies and total factor productivity for each firm. The measurements of scale economies and total factor productivity are then used to investigate the relationships among exports, scale economies, and productivity. Significant external scale economies associated with exports and a strong positive relationship between the individual firm's productivity and its own export intensity are observed.     

基于贸易视角的人民币区域化研究

本文综述了人民币区域化的相关研究,从宏观经济的角度分析了人民币区域化的区域经济环境。并采用最优货币区标准内生性的模型,选取1989—2003年的数据,验证了中国同亚洲其他经济体双边贸易关联度与经济相关程度之间的关系。此外,本文从贸易的角度对人民币“区域化”的收益以及相应的效应做了实证分析,通过对中国与亚洲其他经济体的贸易情况,以及中国经济发展对亚洲经济体贸易流量和贸易结构等方面的影响,来判断在亚洲贸易发展的趋势下人民币“区域化”的可行性。     

Geopolitics and the Genealogy of Free Trade Zones in the Persian Gulf

Free trade zones have been championed by policy makers as important mechanisms for the “economic liberalisation” and “globalisation” of the Middle East. While a growing number of political economists have begun to investigate the performance of these projects, few have considered why states voluntarily limit their sovereign powers by establishing these liberalised territories. To address this question, this paper studies the Jebel Ali free trade zone in Dubai (UAE) and the Kish free trade zone in Iran, two of the earliest such projects in the region. Rather than being products of neoliberal ideology or pressure from advanced industrial economies, the essay argues that paradoxically these zones were developed by the Iranian state and Dubai emirate to project territorial sovereignty in turbulent geostrategic settings and moments as well as nodes to circulate rent to domestic and international members of ruling coalitions. The geostrategic and state-building logics informed when, where, and how these projects were developed. More generally, this analysis illustrates that the Middle East is neither absent from the process of globalisation, nor does it simply respond passively and reactively to this complex process. Free trade zones are an example of local strategies working in consort with international processes to fashion new forms of economic and political interconnectedness.     

Oil dependency and exchange rate regimes in Arab oil economies: time to rethink the paradigm

This study examines implications of the current exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic and growth performance of five Arab oil-producing countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Sudan, Algeria and Yemen. The study evaluates alternative exchange rate regime policy options towards exploring an optimal exit strategy to ensure successful transition to more sustainable exchange rate regime, especially in the fixed regime economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This study proposes the adoption of a transparent broad basket, band and crawl (BBC) regime by the Arab oil economies in order to provide a better alternative to the existing fixed pegs or dirty floats. However, it is imperative to note that, the timing of the exit from the current regime and the extent of institutional development and market sophistications are very critical to successful transition to more sustainable regime that would provide a larger scope for counter-cyclical policies and diversification in these economies.     

The competition effects of the Single Market in Europe

The reduction in trade barriers in Europe through the Single Market Programme (SMP) was intended to increase competition in European markets, and hence welfare and efficiency. The paper examines how the SMP has affected trade patterns and what can be learnt from this regarding the impact on competitive behaviour. Combining an econometric and computable general equilibrium methodology, it is argued that (1) the SMP has indeed had a strong impact on competitive behaviour; (2) the extent of the impact depends both on changes in the intensity of competition as well as on changes in the nature of competitive interaction; (3) while all economies experience potentially large welfare gains from the SMP, it is the smaller economies that experience the larger gains, but this in turn suggests that they experience a greater degree of restructuring.     

Sources of Comparative Advantages in Brazil

Based on the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek model, the authors investigate relative factor abundance in Brazil, as revealed by its international trade. They study two different time periods: one characterized by high trade barriers (1980–85) and the trade liberalization period (1990–95). Two alternative methodologies are used: the estimation of factor intensity regressions on net exports and the direct computation of factor content in net exports. In the factor intensity regression, the authors incorporate technological changes that might have occurred over time, and these turn out to be significant. Both methods yield the same results: the Brazilian international trade reveals relative abundance in capital, land, and unskilled labor, and scarcity in skilled labor, with qualitatively equivalent results for the two time periods studied.     

Openness,productivity and growth in the APEC economies

The 1980s and 1990s have witnessed the emergence of many Asian economies as important traders in the world. How has openness to trade and investment affected productivity and growth performance in those economies? This question is often tackled with the traditional growth regression method. However, the findings in the existing literature are still inconclusive. This paper proposes an alternative approach which is employed to examine the impact of openness on the sources of productivity and growth in the APEC economies. Specifically, the proposed technique distinguishes technological progress (innovation) from efficiency changes (catch-up) and attempts to isolate the influences of openness on these two distinct factors. The findings in this study may help gain fresh insight into the relationship between openness and productivity and growth performance in the APEC economies.First revision received: July 2001/Final revision received: May 2003The author thanks two anonymous referees for very helpful comments.     

中国区域贸易增长与环境污染的因子聚类分析

随着中国经济与贸易的快速增长，传统的区域划分在研究贸易与环境政策问题时的局限性愈发凸显。运用因子方法对1992～2005年中国各省市、自治区近十几年来经济、贸易增长与环境污染的数据进行分析，可为贸易与环境污染的区域研究提供新的参考依据。     

The pollution terms of trade and its five components

Based on two extensions, this paper proposes a re-appraisal of the concept of the pollution terms of trade (PTT) introduced by Antweiler (1996). First, detailed data allows capturing the effect of differences in emission intensities across countries and over time. Second, relying on Johnson and Noguera (2012), the revised PTT index controls for trade in intermediate goods and is based on value-added rather than gross output figures. Applied to a database for SO₂ emission intensities for 62 developed and developing countries over the 1990–2000 period, it turns out that the first extension has a larger empirical importance than the second one. The global pattern is one in which the major rich economies exhibit a PTT index below one (higher pollution intensity in imports than in exports). Trade imbalances tend to exacerbate this asymmetry, allowing rich economies to further offshore their pollution through trade.     

Trade barriers,multinational involvement and intra-industry trade: panel data evidence from India

The article analyses the effects of trade barriers and multinationals on the intensity of intra-industry trade (IIT) in a panel of Indian manufacturing industries from 1988 to 1999. We find that the intensity of IIT increases with the reduction of trade barriers. This is expected as greater competition from imports leads individual plants in the domestic industry to specialize in the manufacturing of unique varieties. The analysis suggests that horizontal (market seeking) multinational activities in the domestic industries exert a negative influence on IIT. This is consistent with the view that horizontal multinationals displace exports to the host country. At the same time, our results indicate that IIT will be stimulated to the extent that the entry of multinationals induces intra-industry specialization. We also analyse the role of product differentiation and plant level scale economies in determining IIT.     

Welfare effects of competition for FDI between technologically asymmetric countries with varying trade costs

Given the traditional argument that host countries' excessive competition for FDI (foreign direct investment) deteriorates the host countries' welfare, this paper examines the impact of policy competition for FDI on social welfare considering varying trade costs. Based on a model where two technologically asymmetric countries compete for FDI, we determine an equilibrium where a multinational firm relocates to a less efficient country. Moreover, we demonstrate that the policy competition for FDI between less integrated economies might improve social welfare when the multinational firm relocates to a country with a lower technology and a less competitive market. Nonetheless, we show that the traditional argument can be true when the policy competition for FDI between highly integrated economies deteriorates host countries' welfare, as supported by the empirical evidences of moderated competition for FDI within EU member countries.     

The role of economies of scale in justifying free trade: the Canada-USA Free Trade Agreement and Europe 1992 compared

In what way will the benefits of free trade emerge? This analysis looks at the role of economies of scale in justifying free trade. It takes the 1989 Canada-USA Free Trade Agreement and the European 1992 programmes as two recent examples of analyses in which economy of scale arguments were central to the economic evaluation of welfare gains. The official assessments of both policy moves are scrutinized and compared. It is suggested that the advantages of economies of scale are exaggerated in each account. The policy implications of the critique are drawn out for the case of both internal and external economies of scale. The argument is that a move away from traditional mass production process technologies and business strategies is underway, which requires a radically different approach to trade and scale issues.     

Communication Costs and Trade of Differentiated Goods

This paper investigates how the decline of communication costs affects the pattern of trade in differentiated goods. It is found that the development of information technology (IT) has significantly increased US imports of differentiated goods after the 1970s. In addition, the modern communication technology has assisted small economies from exporting homogeneous goods to exporting more and more differentiated goods in recent years.     

Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition

This paper presents an analytical reformulation of the Marshall–Lerner condition under the assumption that the independence of the GDP from the exchange rate cannot be postulated in open economies in which the foreign trade flow/GDP ratio is high. This paper attempts to analyse how, in open economies in which the export and import flow/GDP ratio is very high, independence between the GDP and the exchange rate is not a plausible assumption, so the traditional version of the Marshall–Lerner condition is not sustained.     

International Outsourcing and Unemployment in a Minimum‐wage Economy

To explore the impact of international outsourcing on unemployment and social welfare, the conventional trade model is extended by including both economies of scale and a minimum‐wage constraint in the unskilled‐labor market. In the paper, the scale economies are linked with the production of the most skill‐intensive good. It is shown that within such a framework, there is a trade‐off between a more socially desirable endowment allocation and a greater level of employment. Therefore, even though outsourcing could raise aggregate employment, this benefit is at the cost of further exacerbating the resource misallocation. In this way, the extensions to the traditional framework explored in the paper generate new insights as to why outsourcing may cause a net welfare loss to the home country.     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

Carbon pricing and terms of trade effects for China and India: A general equilibrium analysis

Using country-specific dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, this paper estimates carbon prices in China and India, and compares the effects of carbon pricing policies under terms of trade effects. Estimated carbon prices are higher in China due to differences in emission intensity and in the rate of deployment of new technologies in the models. Differences in carbon prices open up the possibility of carbon trading between the two countries to achieve mitigation objectives. Further, under assumptions about different exchange rate regimes and international fossil fuel prices, the effects of carbon pricing policies on the two economies are mostly similar in terms of direction but, expectedly, different in terms of magnitude. Terms of trade effects could exacerbate carbon pricing effects to a greater degree in China as the country is significantly more dependent than India on external trade and investment. Policymakers should factor in terms of trade effects while designing or evaluating carbon pricing policies in the two countries.     

Exports and economic growth:some empirical evidence from the Arab Gulf countries

This paper investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth in four of the Arab Gulf countries, namely, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman for the period 1973–93. The estimates presented indicate a positive and significant relation between the two variables. Also, the statistical adequacy of the models used is supported by the following diagnostic tests. The Bruesch-Godfrey statistic suggests the absence of serial correlation. The Farely-Hinich test fails to reject the null hypothesis that the models are structurally stable. And both the White and Hausman specification tests show that the models are correctly specified.