The regional effects of macroeconomic shocks in China

The extent and persistence of the inequality of regional output is an important policy issue in China and its sources have been the subject of considerable empirical research. Yet we have relatively little empirical knowledge of the effects on the regional distribution of output of shocks to national macroeconomic variables such as GDP and investment. This is an important gap in the empirical literature since much government macroeconomic policy seeks to influence GDP using instruments such as investment expenditure. It is likely that such national shocks will have differential regional impacts and so affect the regional output distribution. Policy-makers need to know the sign, size and timing of such effects before making policy decisions at the national level. We simulate the effects of aggregate shocks on individual provinces' GDP within the framework of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model restricted in a manner following Lastrapes (Economics Letters, 2005). We use annual data from 1980 to 2012 to estimate the model which includes 28 of China's provinces and simulate the effects on provincial outputs of shocks to aggregate output and investment. We find great diversity of effects across the provinces with discernible geographic patterns. There is evidence that output shocks benefit coastal provinces with developed industrial structure, export-exposure and less reliance on SOEs; the opposite is found for the effects of an investment shock and we conjecture that this is likely to have been the result of the strong bias in central government investment policy in favour of the interior provinces during a substantial part of our sample period.     

Small firms and economic growth in europe

Economic activity in manufacturing industries moved away from large firms toward small firms in many Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries during the last two decades. However, the speed of this industrial transformation process has varied considerably across countries. This paper investigates the consequences of lagging behind in this restructuring process in manufacturing. A sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 13 European countries has been constructed for this purpose. It is found that, on average, the employment share of large firms in 1990 has a negative effect on output growth in the subsequent four-year period. This provides support for specific policies introduced during the 1980s in European countries stimulating small enterprises.This study benefitted from a grant by the Research Centre for Economic Policy (OCFEB), Faculty of Economics, Erasmus University, Rotterdam.     

Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: The Chinese experience

Using Chinese provincial data from 1985 to 1999 and applying recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels, this paper examines how the development of financial intermediation influences China's economic growth during the post-1978 reform period. Our econometric results show that China's financial intermediation development contributes to its rapid economic growth through two channels: first, the substitution of loans for state budget appropriation and second, the mobilization of household savings. Loan expansion, however, does not contribute to growth since loan distribution by financial intermediaries is inefficient. Deep financial sector reform aimed at correcting this inefficiency is desirable, and is expected to sustain China's economic development in the future.     

Minority firms, racism and economic development

Despite the prominence of minority firms within inner-city areas across the country, relatively little is known of their makeup, problems and relations with external agencies. Drawing on a study of 50 Asian employers and key players in local support bodies in the typical inner-city area of Wolverhampton, this paper assesses the market and managerial structure of minority firms, and their links with support agencies. It is argued that racism is a significant constraint on the development of such firms; and that current support from external agencies is lacking. A more focused and higher profile role for a dedicated “Asian Business Unit” is suggested as a strategy for the development of minority enterprise.     

Product differentiation,export participation and productivity growth: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

In this paper, we investigate how the degree of export participation and product differentiation affect firms' productivity growth through learning-by-exporting. We extend the model of Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) to endogenize the effort firms allocate to learning. This effort choice depends on both the degree to which firms enter export markets and the extent to which products are differentiated across producers. Using a firm-level dataset from China's manufacturing industries, we implement propensity score matching methods to test the model's predictions. Our results indicate that the degree of export participation is positively correlated with TFP improvements. Simultaneously, we empirically verify that firms exporting less differentiated products experience faster TFP growth than those exporting more differentiated products.     

Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries’ performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.     

Energy price shocks,monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations

This paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy factors to study various channels through which China's economic fluctuations are linked to energy price shocks and to search for the optimal monetary policy to cope with energy price shocks. We conclude that there are channels through which changes in energy prices will have the following cause–effect relationships. First, a rise in energy price as a negative technology shock will raise the costs of providing capital services per unit of capital, thereby reducing output. Second, a rising energy price distorts the intertemporal choices of households and firms, creating downward pressure on the expected future return on capital. Third, an energy price shock places upward pressure on the marginal costs associated with an increase in inflation. Numerical simulation results show that a positive energy price shock has a positive effect on energy technology improvements. In addition, the effects of energy price shocks can be mitigated by nominal rigidities, and interest rate rules will determine the magnitude of those effects. Using the efficient frontier method, we also show that optimal monetary policy in China should help control energy price volatility.     

全球化对中国政治发展的影响

以经济为先导的全球化趋势，已成为当今世界覆盖最广、渗透最强的时代大潮。在经济全球化背景下，必然会对中国的政治发展产生影响。面对全球化对中国政治发展所带来的机遇和挑战。我们必须采取相应的策略与对策。     

外向拉动：国际贸易和国际直接投资对我国经济增长的贡献

国际贸易和国际直接投资促进了中国经济的持续高速增长。本文较为全面地考察了我国和世界上其他一些主要的发展中国家工业化进程中对外贸易依存度和直接投资依存度的变化趋势,分析了我国经济增长中国际贸易和国际直接投资的贡献,提出在新时期要大力发展外向经济、提高直接投资依存度、保持对外贸易依存度的稳定增长,共同促进我国经济的增长对策。     

School attendance and economic shocks: Evidence from rural Zimbabwe

Unpredicted shocks such as weather, pests or price changes affect agricultural households negatively or positively. The shocks have two opposite effects (income and substitution) on parents’ investments in the human capital of their children, and it is not predictable from theory whether the income effect or the substitution effect of a shock has a greater impact on the investments. Therefore, it is unknown whether human capital investments (i.e. sending children to school rather than having them work) are procyclical or countercyclical. In this paper we show how hyperinflation may affect investments in the education of children by their parents using three data-sets from Zimbabwe. We find that human capital investments are countercyclical (the substitution effect dominates) in rural areas of Zimbabwe during a shock. Therefore, policymakers in Zimbabwe need to be worried about decreased schooling of children during positive shocks in the rural areas.     

The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.     

实证分析:外资与中国经济增长

一、外资是我国固定资产投资的重要资金来源 从动态经济增长的角度看,经济的潜在产出取决于劳动力、资本和技术进步等生产要素的积累水平。利用外资对一国经济增长的影响,首先在于其是资本积累的重要来源之一。从我国全社会固定资产     

Globalization and patterns of economic development

Globalization and Patterns of Economic Development. — One of the most important challenges facing economics is to understand why globalization spurs economic growth to a greater extent in some parts of the world than in others. While part of the answer rests with differences in national economic policies, such policy differences are only part of the story. Differences in physical geography and resource endowments also cause countries to experience very different patterns of economic development in the global economy. In this article, five different patterns of economic development are described, and it is illustrated how they are related to the underlying geography, economic policies, and resource endowments of a country.     

The macroeconomic effects of import tariffs in a model with multinational firms and foreign direct investment

International Economics and Economic Policy - Recent (de-)globalization tendencies and rising protectionist measures has created new interest in studying the effects of unilateral and world-wide...     

Negative economic shocks and child schooling: Evidence from rural Malawi

This study investigates the impacts of negative economic shocks on child schooling in households of rural Malawi, one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Both individually-reported and community-level shocks are investigated. There is evidence that community-level shocks negatively impact the school enrolment of children. The point estimates suggest that this effect is larger when shocks and school enrolment are reported by men as compared with women. However, we cannot conclude with statistical confidence that the impact of idiosyncratic shocks is larger when reported by males than when reported by females. Similarly, although the point estimates suggest that the impact of community-level shocks on the school enrolment of children is larger than that of idiosyncratic shocks, we cannot conclude with statistical significance that the impacts of community-level and idiosyncratic shocks are different.     

The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price

This study examines the impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam with a focus on the transmission channel of domestic oil prices. The Structural Vector Autoregression model with two blocks of real economy variables and monetary variables is employed. The world oil price follows an autoregressive process to reflect the exogenous nature of world oil price shocks to the domestic economy. The retail domestic oil price is determined simultaneously by only the world oil price due to the government's control of the domestic oil market. Using monthly data in the period between 2009 and 2021, the study indicates that a positive shock to world oil prices will increase the domestic oil prices significantly, industrial production (slightly and only statistically significant in the third month after), and inflation (significantly in 8 months). Besides, the domestic oil price is not the only transmission channel of world oil price shocks to the economy. This result implies forecasting, assessing, and controlling the impact of the world oil price shock on the economy should focus on both domestic oil prices and other indirect channels.