Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses

The goal of this paper is to provide stylized facts on recovery from economic downturns and to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in promoting recovery. In particular, we examine gross domestic product (GDP) recessions and financial downturns (credit contractions and stock price declines) using data from 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies and 21 developing Asian economies. We find, in general, recovery from a GDP recession in the Asian economies is somewhat slower than in the OECD economies. However, recovery from a financial downturn is not much different between Asia and the OECD. We also find the OECD economies have been more active and effective in using counter-cyclical policies than the Asian economies in the face of GDP recessions and financial downturns. Recent evidence, however, suggests the Asian economies may have better success in the current global crisis.     

Economic History of Asia: comparative perspectives

This article surveys studies that provide a comparative perspective on the economic history of Asia. The available paradigms tend to be extrapolations of the relatively well-researched long-term development of Japan and China. It remains to be seen whether these apply to other Asian countries, but they are likely to further comparative research that will help to focus scholarship on the crucial factors in understanding long-term economic development in Asia.     

High‐Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia*

Using daily data from the Asian currency crisis, the present paper examines high‐frequency contagion effects among six Asian countries. The ‘origin’ (of exchange rate depreciation, or decline in stock prices) and the ‘affected’ (currencies, or stock prices) in the daily spillover relationship were defined and identified. Indonesia is found to be the main origin country, affecting exchange rates of other countries. Contrary to conventional wisdom, evidence of high‐frequency crisis spillover from the Thai exchange rate to other currencies was weak at best. There exists a high‐frequency contagion in stock markets among East Asian countries. Contagion coefficients are positively correlated with trade indices, indicating that investors lower their financial assessment of a country that has trade linkage to a crisis origin country within days, if not hours, of a shock.     

Foreign Investment in Southeast Asia in Historical Perspective

This paper places today's spectacular boom in foreign investment throughout Southeast Asia in its appropriate historical perspective. It contrasts the most authoritative statistical evidence pertaining to the late 1930s and the late 1980s and identifies features of change and continuity between the late-colonial period and today. It is observed that nationalities of investors and targets of foreign investment have changed dramatically whereas the hierarchy of recipients, the investment climate and the function of foreign investment in the host country economy all display a certain continuity. The salient question is whether the impact of contemporary foreign investment on economic growth in the host country will be more lasting than was the case in colonial days.     

Behavioral and empirical perspectives on FDI: International capital allocation across Asia

We investigate Asia's recent experience in international capital allocation through flows of foreign direct investment. A calibrated general equilibrium model with a new capital flow modelling component is applied to highlight underlying relationships between a Heckscher-Ohlin (labor and capital) endowment perspective and such considerations as human capital, productivity, endogenous growth, and institutional behavior. Our results support the argument that all these factors played a role in Asia's recent growth, to different degrees in different countries, with complex relationships to investment incentives. In addition, new directions for further research in the FDI-growth linkages policy area are identified.     

中国崛起与东亚经济新格局

毫无疑问,中国的崛起正在改变整个东亚经济长期以来形成的格局.这个传统的发展模式从60年代开始,到90年代中期被逐渐打破,维持了三十多年的时间,这就是世界上有名的东亚经济发展模式.这个模式曾经被日本的学者形容为雁阵模式或者说雁行模式,这成为世界上发展中国家迅速崛起的一个成功的模式,在现代经济史上非常著名.我概括了一下,这个模式有四个基本特征:     

Technology transfer in East Asia and its implications for regional cooperation∗

The importance of technology in economic development is indisputable. A large part of the developmental process in East Asian countries has been greatly accelerated by the transfer of technology from developed countries. This paper, based on detailed data obtained from selected samples of about 100 companies in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, examines several key determinants of the process of acquisition, assimilation and internalization of imported technology in business enterprises. Drawing on the findings, this paper also suggests several implications for regional cooperation in enhancing the process of technology transfer in East Asia.     

Capital Flows and Crises

There are many things that went wrong for the countries caught up in the Asian crisis of 1997, but out of the myriad causes, two clear central problems can be identified—the fatal combination of large and volatile international capital flows, interacting with fragile domestic financial sectors. This paper focuses on the first of these issues— international capital flows.     

Banking and Debt Crises in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?

The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated. After reviewing the criteria used to measure the debt vulnerability, the balance sheet approach is presented in order to illustrate the potential connections between these two types of crises. A graphical analysis yields evidence that at the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before. Nevertheless, the serious threats, which concern Greece and Ireland, do not permit us to exclude the occurrence of a contagious, or self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future.     

中小型高新技术企业成长阶段危机与对策

中小型高新技术企业存在着明显的阶段特征,本文将爱迪思企业生命周期曲线与高新技术企业的生命周期模型作为对照,结合拉瑞.葛雷纳(Larry E. Greiner)提出的五阶段模型,深入分析了中小型高新技术企业在成长阶段所面临的危机并提出了化解危机的对策。     

Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets

Bank crises in emerging economies have been a feature of the recent global crisis, and their incidence has increased in the post-Bretton Woods era. This paper investigates the impact of financial globalization on the incidence of systemic bank crises in 20 emerging markets over the years 1976–2002 using measures of de facto and de jure financial openness. An increase in foreign debt liabilities contributes to an increase in the incidence of crises, but foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities have the opposite effect. A more liberal de jure capital regime lowers the incidence of banking crises, while a regime of fixed exchange rates increases their frequency. The results of the econometric analysis is consistent with the experience of East European and central Asian emerging markets, which attracted a relatively large proportion of capital flows in the form of debt in recent years and have been particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis.     

Liquidity Crises and Corporate Cash Holdings in Chile

This paper addresses the heterogonous effects of adverse liquidity shocks on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market. We use a large panel dataset with quarterly financial information for Chilean firms during the period 1996–2009. We find three main results. First, liquidity crises have had a negative and economically significant effect on cash holdings, but mainly for small firms; medium‐sized and large firms have not been affected by liquidity crises. Second, liquidity crises reduce the ability of firms to adjust to optimal cash holdings. Finally, medium‐sized firms are less able to adjust cash holdings compared to small and large firms.