Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia

In the aftermath of the recent global financial turmoil, sovereign spreads have exhibited a significant degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these movements in the spreads of Asian economies reflected shifts in global risk aversion or country‐specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from spillovers originating in other sovereigns, or risks and uncertainty surrounding their exchange rates. This analysis finds that earlier in the crisis, the increase in market‐implied contagion led to an increase of sovereign bond yields relative to the swaps. Higher‐rated sovereign bonds in Asia benefited from the flight to quality that accompanied the increase in global risk aversion during this period. Once the systemic risks in the financial sectors worldwide were contained, the risk of sovereign spillovers eased, which, together with a fall in perceived currency‐related risks, led to a fall in sovereign bond yields relative to swaps yields across the board. Comparing the situation to that of Europe, the present paper concludes that the debt crisis in the euro area has not affected the perception of sovereign risks of Asian economies. In fact, a fall in exchange rate and spillover risks, combined with stronger fundamentals, have led to a continued normalization of Asian sovereign spreads since the height of the financial crisis.     

Information contents of collateral under heterogeneous borrower qualities on the bank loans market in China

We analyze the risk of default and provision of collateral for bank loans made to firms of varied credit qualities using a unique dataset obtained from a major state-owned commercial bank in China. Both high and low quality borrowers provide collateral more often than medium quality debtors do. Using models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneous borrower qualities, we find a positive relation between collateralization and risk of default for loans issued to debtors with low credit ratings. In contrast, collateral provided by debtors with high credit ratings is negatively associated with the risk of default. These results suggest that low quality borrowers may be required to provide collateral at the bank's request to mitigate moral hazard problem. On the other hand, high quality borrowers may provide collateral willingly to signal quality in order to mitigate adverse selection problem when competing for getting access to bank loans. Our findings shed new lights on different information contents of collateral on the bank loans market of China, and have important implications for banks in screening, contracting and monitoring the risk of commercial loans for clients with diverse credit qualities.     

Indonesia's banking crisis: a new perspective on $50 billion of losses

The Asian crisis devastated the Indonesian banking sector and led to astronomical losses, almost entirely paid for by the government, i.e. by the general public. The paper provides a new perspective on the crisis, stressing that bank losses are not the same as losses to the economy: most of the ‘losses’ of the banks are actually transfers to borrowers and depositors. It should be possible to recover part of the amounts concerned through taxation of the major beneficiaries. The paper contrasts the conventional approach, embedded in business accounting, used to manage the banking crisis, with an alternative approach that relies on national accounting concepts. It shows how the latter can provide a new perspective, elucidating the massive transfers of wealth that took place during the crisis. This suggests possible improvements in bank resolution strategies, through the identification and quantification of the main transfers of wealth, followed by their taxation.     

Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets

This article examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the East Asian equity markets since early 1990s and compares the ongoing crisis with earlier episodes. Using the forecast error variance decomposition from a vector autoregression, we derive return and volatility spillover indices over the rolling sub-sample windows. We show that there is substantial difference between the behavior of the East Asian return and volatility spillover indices over time. While the return spillover index reveals increased integration among the East Asian equity markets, the volatility spillover index experiences significant bursts during major market crises, including the East Asian crisis. The fact that both return and volatility spillover indices reached their respective peaks during the current global financial crisis attests to the severity of the current episode.     

Is the COVID-19 pandemic more contagious for the Asian stock markets? A comparison with the Asian financial,the US subprime and the Eurozone debt crisis

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has sent shock waves across the global stock markets. Several financial crises in the past too have had a global impact with their reach extending beyond the country of origin. The current study compares the contagion effect of four such crises viz. the Asian financial crisis, the US subprime crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis, and the currently ongoing Covid-19 crisis on Asian stock markets to understand which of these has had the most severe impact. It finds that among all the four crises, the US subprime crisis has been the most contagious for the Asian stock markets. The study also highlights the difference between severities of a liquidity crisis versus a real crisis and identifies the markets that remained insulated from all these crises, a finding which will be useful for portfolio managers in devising their asset allocation.     

Asia’s contagious financial crisis and its impact on Korea

Asian countries have, from 1965 to the early 1990s, shown remarkable growth performance. The recent financial crisis, however, has brought disastrous effects on these growing economies. The region has been suffering from high inflation, massive unemployment, and large drops in growth rates. The major cause of the crisis can be attributed to the international financial markets. International financial institutions lent without serious examination of the borrowers’ ability to repay. In this regard, the ratings agencies were also responsible for the worsening of the crisis. Their ratings did not give correct signals to the lenders. The borrowers’ speculative activities and their subsequent failures were a direct cause that led to the crisis. A second cause lies in the structural problems in these economies. There are still covert dealings between government officials and businesses, and these economies lack transparency. These deficiencies greatly distort allocation of resources in the economies. There should be a global risk-management system to prevent such a crisis from happening again. This risk-management system would give an early warning signal. Creditors should coordinate their efforts to resolve the liquidity crisis in the Asian countries. Coordinated loans and partial forgiving of debts will be helpful to both debtors and creditors.     

Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-Based Approach

This paper investigates whether, during the Asian crisis, contagion occurred from Thailand to the other crisis countries through the foreign exchange market, and, if so, determines the contribution of this contagion to the crisis. More specifically, we examine whether the effect of the exchange market pressure (EMP) of Thailand, the origin of the crisis, on the EMP of four Asian crisis countries increased during the crisis. Instead of measuring contagion by the commonly used correlation coefficients, we apply regression analysis. To control for the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals, we construct a time-varying indicator measuring the fragility of each economy. Additionally, we control for spillovers and common external shocks. We find evidence of contagion from Thailand to Indonesia and Malaysia, with 13 and 21 percent of the pressure on the respective currencies attributable to that contagion. For Korea and the Philippines there is no evidence of contagion from Thailand. JEL no. F30, F31, G15     

The “exorbitant privilege” and “exorbitant duty” of the United States in the international monetary system: implications for developing countries

The international monetary system may be viewed as a global insurance system, where the United States enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of a positive yield differential on its external assets and liabilities during normal times, in exchange for the “exorbitant duty” of valuation losses in the form of wealth transfers to the rest of the world during crisis periods. Evidence for 76 economies and 1995–2019 indicates that some other major developed economies also enjoy an exorbitant privilege, though without suffering an exorbitant duty. By contrast, most developing economies neither have an exorbitant privilege nor benefit from wealth transfers. Developing economies as a group recorded negative return differentials and valuation losses during 2010–2019, implying a total return differential of about minus three percentage points between developing and developed economies and an annual average resource transfer from developing economies of about $800bn, or 3.3 per cent of their GDP. Econometric analysis linking crisis insurance strategies and yield differentials indicates that permanent swap arrangements, reserve holdings and regional monetary arrangements can contain negative yield differentials. Developed economies could make part of past resource transfers available to developing economies to finance recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

     

Testing contagion of the 1997–98 crisis in Asian stock markets with structural breaks and incubation periods

This study tests for the existence of financial contagion, using a method that allows an incubation period before contagion takes effect. We define contagion as an increase in cross-market linkages following shocks. With daily data on Asian stock markets during the 1997–98 crisis, we find significant upward shifts in the linkages between the Asian markets of both crisis and non-crisis countries. The upward shifts are maintained even after controlling for heteroskedasticity and common world and regional factors, providing strong evidence for financial contagion.     

Crises in Asia: Historical perspectives and implications

The paper analyzes the stylized features of historical crisis episodes for 21 developing Asian economies over 1961–2007. The paper finds that while there is substantial diversity, on average, recessions and financial downturns are more frequent, longer lasting, and more severe in Asia than in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. The paper also finds that the likelihood and severity of a recession tends to increase when it is associated with credit crunches or stock market crashes. Severe financial downturns or recessions in the global economy are often coupled with financial crises or recessions in Asia. In view of the current global crisis and severe financial downturns, Asian economies are expected to experience a severe recession in 2009.     

Crisis in the Russian mortgage market through the lens of financial accelerator theory

This paper analyzes the influence of the economic crisis on the Russian mortgage market from the position of the financial accelerator theory. It shows that the level of financial stability of banks and borrowers on the eve of the crisis was determining the dynamics of their development and solvency during the crisis. The “flight to quality” effect, which is inextricably connected to the financial accelerator mechanism, showed that the largest domestic banks and credit organizations that were controlled by nonresident companies and mainly specialized in mortgages were in the most advantageous position in the mortgage market. In regions, this effect manifested itself through a reduction in mortgage lending for borrowers registered in other regions and an increase in the number of credit provided by Moscow banks.     

International Financial Contagion and the Fund —A Theoretical Framework

In this paper we provide a model of contagion in which countries are linked through the international capital market which allows borrowing and lending for consumption smoothing. Borrowing from the International Monetary Fund also provides a mechanism for countries to smooth consumption intertemporally. Facing a large shock that makes it impossible for a country simultaneously to achieve a desired minimum level of consumption and to service its foreign debt, the country will default. This will put some upward pressure on world interest rates, which raises the debt service costs of other indebted countries and can generate further rounds of defaults. In this environment the Fund has an important systemic function in lending to members to limit the extent of contagion and default. The Fund can be seen as internalizing the externality generated by the contagion that spreads through the channel of the world capital market that links all countries. JEL Classification Numbers: E44, E61, F33, F34     

THE EFFECT OF STRESSED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON SYSTEMIC RISK WITHIN THE SOUTH AFRICAN BANKING SECTOR

The credit crisis resulted in increases in credit, market and operational risk, but it may also have precipitated a surge in systemic risk. Measuring systemic risk as the price of insurance against distressed losses in the South African banking sector, this article attempts to determine whether the financial crisis has in fact resulted in an increase in systemic risk. Using probabilities of default and asset return correlations as systemic risk indicators, it is found that the financial crisis has indeed increased systemic risk in South Africa. The impact was, however, less severe than that experienced in other large international banks.     

Credit Contagion and Trade Credit: Evidence from Small Business Data in Japan

The present study investigates whether credit contagion leads to a decrease in trade credit for small businesses. In 1997–1998, the Japanese economy experienced a deep recession, and the domino effect caused an increase in the number of dishonored bills and bankruptcy filings. During a period of credit contagion, the possibility of default increases for firms with more financial claims and lower cash holdings. We find that during a recession, trade payables for small businesses with higher trade receivables and lower cash holdings are reduced. The hypothesis that the effects of credit risk on trade payables are weakened is not supported.     

Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes

Episodes of extraordinary turbulence in global financial markets are examined during nine crises ranging from the Asian crisis in 1997–98 to the recent European debt crisis of 2010–13. After dating each crisis using a regime switching model, the analysis focuses on changes in the dependence structures of equity markets through correlation, coskewness and covolatility to address a range of hypotheses regarding contagion transmission. The results show that the great recession is a true global financial crisis. Finance linkages are more likely to result in crisis transmission than trade and emerging market crises transmit unexpectedly, particularly to developed markets.     

Monetary Policy and Borrowers’ Loan Defaults: Research Based on Data from Renrendai

This paper uses Renrendai data to study the relationship between monetary policy and the default behavior of borrowers, and analyzes the transmission channels. The research shows that tight monetary policy will lead to a significant increase in a borrower's probability to default, and this effect will continue for several months. There may be two transmission channels: (i) monetary policy changes a debtor's liquidity through credit and balance sheet channels, which directly affects their current repayment behavior; and (ii) monetary policy may affect a borrower's investment, production and profitability, thus changing their long‐term solvency. The paper also finds that the repayment behavior of productive borrowers is more susceptible to monetary policy than consumptive borrowers, and that the default behavior of borrowers in coastal provinces is more susceptible to monetary policy than of borrowers in inland provinces. These findings provide new evidence for understanding how monetary policy affects individual behavior and its transmission mechanisms.     

The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.     

Income Smoothing and the Usefulness of Earnings for Monitoring in Debt Contracting

We investigate whether income smoothing affects the usefulness of earnings for contracting through the monitoring role of earnings-based debt covenants. First, we examine initial contract design and predict that income smoothing will increase (decrease) the use of earnings-based covenants if income smoothing improves (reduces) the usefulness of earnings to monitor borrowers. We find that private debt contracts to borrowers with greater income smoothing are more likely to include earnings-based covenants. A structural model that explores the cause of this relationship provides evidence that smoothing improves the ability of earnings to reflect credit risk. Second, we examine technical default following contract inception. We find that income smoothing is associated with a lower likelihood of spurious technical default (when the borrower's economic performance has not declined but the loan nevertheless enters technical default). In contrast, we find no association between income smoothing and performance technical default (when the borrower's economic performance has declined). Collectively, this evidence is consistent with income smoothing improving the effectiveness of earnings-based information in monitoring borrowers.     

How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia–Pacific economies?—Analysis based on a general equilibrium model

The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia–Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.     

For the Motion

The interest rate is one of the most important factors in farmers’ decision-making of borrowing and lending in the informal financial market in China. This paper explores the determinants of the interest rate with microfinance data. Results show that the income disparity, the relationship between borrowers and lenders, the usage of borrowing, and formal credit constraints are important factors affecting interest rates. More importantly, to borrow from those in the higher income hierarchy, farmers have to bear higher interest rates. We attribute this to different social capitals across income groups and higher default risks for the poor. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the informal financial market in rural China and sheds light on the mechanism of higher informal interest rate formation.