Industrial organization in a restructuring socialist economy: Evidence from Bulgaria

Using new data for all state and cooperatively-owned Bulgarian establishments and enterprises in 1988 and 1989 we portray key aspects of Bulgarian industrial organization. During 1988–89: state ownership became less dominant; there was an abrupt reversal in the twenty year trend towards bigger economic units; more than half of the largest firms were concentrated in certain sectors, notably engineering and construction; using official prices, only about 10% of enterprises made losses. These data and other new data for manufacturing products enable calculation of diverse measures of market structure as this may evolve under the policies introduced in 1991. Indices of market concentration typically show substantial concentration; usually about 50% of manufacturing output was produced in potentially competitive environments. While estimates of minimum efficient scale imply that MES does not constitute a significant barrier to entry for new competitors, the underdeveloped nature of the Bulgarian capital market probably greatly restricted entry.     

Capital depreciation allowances,redistributive taxation,and economic growth

Are capital depreciation allowances when coupled with capital income taxes good instruments for redistribution in the long run? In a simple two-agent-economy I find that accelerated depreciation is good for growth, but bad for redistribution. The opposite holds for capital income taxes. However, in a feedback Stackelberg equilibrium, where the government is the leader and the private sector the follower, the depreciation allowance is maximal in the long run, time-consistent optimum. This removes the accumulation distortion of capital income taxes. Furthermore, the latter, and so redistribution, is found to be generically nonzero in the time-consistent optimum, and depends on the social weight of transfers receivers, the pretax factor income distribution, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the time preference rate. Thus, accelerated depreciation allowances are an important indirect tool for redistribution. The tax scheme allows for a separation of “efficiency” and “equity” concerns for redistributive policies.     

Depreciation Provisions and Investment Incentives under Full Imputation

This paper examines how the Australian full imputation and capital gains tax provisions can combine to influence incentives to invest by affecting the cost of capital. Costs of capital for both unincorporated enterprises and widely held, Australian-owned companies are examined under idealized depreciation provisions. The paper also presents numerical estimates of costs of capital under actual Australian depreciation provisions.     

Russian Railways Reform and the Problem of Non‐discriminatory Access to Infrastructure

Abstract Restructuring of the Russian railways system is well under way. Among the policies just now coming into practice are two that are standard in railways restructuring in other countries: the provision of access to the infrastructure by independent train operating companies, and assurances of non‐discriminatory access terms for such companies. However, 'discrimination'– in the traditional economic sense – is a standard and often welfare‐enhancing pricing strategy for the recovery of fixed costs in a sector, like railways, with declining average costs. If competition regulators are unable to distinguish between discrimination that harms competition and discrimination designed only to recover fixed costs, policy makers in Russia and elsewhere will face a choice between large government subsidies and large welfare losses. In these circumstances, other restructuring models should be considered.     

The fundamental problem of accounting

The fundamental problem of economic accounting is to determine a forward‐looking schedule of rentals, user costs or quasi‐rents to provide for the recovery of irreversible investments. The method derived herein relaxes some restrictive assumptions that are common in capital theory. There can be multiple forms of comprehensive capital. Accounting for all forms of capital, including tangible and intangible capital, is symmetrical. The analytical focus becomes one of fixities and frictions and not optimality. Rentals obey inequalities as opposed to marginal conditions. If discounted profit is positive, rentals, depreciation, and capital value are not unique.     

Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle

The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium.     

Aggregate returns to social capital: Estimates based on the augmented augmented-Solow model

We extend the augmented-Solow model to estimate the aggregate output elasticity and depreciation rate of social capital that characterize aggregate returns. The estimated output elasticity is approximately 0.1. While social capital positively affects economic growth, the magnitude is much smaller than that of other production inputs. The estimated depreciation rate is at least 10% per annum, which is higher than that of physical capital. The median value of the implied aggregate return of social capital is approximately 19.11% at the global level. In OECD countries, it is likely to be considerably smaller than the individual returns, suggesting the fallacy of composition. While there is no systematic relationship between GDP per capita and returns to physical or human capital, the aggregate returns to social capital seem to be negatively related to the level of development.     

On the emergence of competitive equilibrium growth cycles

A basic discrete-time heterogeneous capital goods competitive environment is considered, its potential for displaying steady growth solutions analyzed and the properties of the latter characterized. A first composite good may be used for consumption or investment on a one-to-one basis, while a second good is only used for accumulation, solely capital inputs being part of the production process. This framework is first considered from the allocative standpoint through the derivation of the frontier of the production possibility set. Having defined the perfect foresight competitive equilibrium that also describes a Pareto optimum over time, attention is then given to the potential for unbounded steady growth solutions. Under interiority, summability, and expansivity restrictions, there is a unique optimal steady growth rate. For unitary depreciation rates of both capital goods, locally there exists a unique convergent sequence to this steady growth solution that exhibits a saddlepoint structure. However, as soon as one of the depreciation rates of the capital goods is non-unitary and the profit share accruing to the first capital stock is greater in the second pure accumulation industry than in the first composite good industry, the steady growth solution shows a loss of stability, and competitive equilibrium growth cycles emerge through the occurrence of a flip bifurcation in its neighborhood. This is the first optimal cycles result based upon a production set that does not explicitly incorporate any exogenously determined primary labor input in its definition.     

马克思对沉淀成本概念的分析及其意义

虽然马克思没有使用沉淀成本这一概念,但已认识到沉淀成本的本质特征——成本补偿或价值实现问题。因此,从马克思价值实现角度扩展西方学者对沉淀成本概念的理解,不仅突破了西方学者沉淀成本概念仅仅与资产特征和市场交易成本相关的局限性,而且将沉淀成本和生产过程与产品价值实现联系起来,从而纳入社会再生产运动过程中。从马克思价值实现角度出发,再次回到投资生产上来,充分理解影响沉淀成本的诸多因素,为政府制定政策或制度安排提供一种新的分析视角,在于避免出现沉淀成本,形成良好的再生产过程。     

我国建筑业市场进入壁垒为何失效

我国建筑业具有典型的分散型产业组织特征,市场集中度偏低的主要原因在于进入门槛较低。规模经济、产品差异化、必要资本量、绝对费用等结构性进入壁垒没有起到限制企业进入的作用,而企业资质管理作为一种市场准入制度,虽然构成了建筑市场最主要的进入壁垒,但在等级设定、专业划分等方面缺乏长期性和稳定性,长期来看对于抑制过度进入和优化产业结构的作用比较有限。     

我国资本市场效率的再检验

在股权分置改革的背景下,通过检验上市公司折旧政策选择与盈余反应系数之间的相关关系,从而对我国资本市场的效率做出实证检验。研究结果显示,盈余反应系数和折旧费率之间在股权分置改革之前的样本中并不存在显著的相关关系,表明资本市场存在着功能锁定现象,而在股权分置改革之后的样本中则存在着显著的正相关关系,表明资本市场能够在调整上市公司折旧政策横截面差异的基础上对其会计盈余做出定价。因此,我国的股权分置改革促进了资本市场的完善,从而有助于我们了解我国资本市场的效率变迁。     

Measurement of diverse,irreversible capital

This paper revisits capital measurement through a microeconomic analysis of a simple project consisting of diverse types of irreversibly invested capital. Capital is aggregated using the numeraire. Thus, the proposed method of measurement is a form of accounting. It associates all types of capital in a common framework. Under certainty, user cost and depreciation take internal accounting values that obey three axioms that comprise five conditions. The accounting values proliferate, but they have only a limited relation to market prices or shadow prices. Each type of capital earns the market rate of interest. In practice, under uncertainty, calculation of the accounting values would require projections of basic data, and would be hard to comprehend, especially for outsiders, and would leave room for moral hazard. Because of these obstacles, accounting practice departs from the ideal based on cash flows and strictly limits choice by using prescribed schedules of depreciation. These schedules are interpreted from an economic perspective.     

OPTIMAL FOREIGN BORROWING REVISITED

Foreign capital has become increasingly important in financing investment and growth in developing countries. Foreign capital flows, however, can be volatile as is evident from the recent financial crises. It has also recently been noted by researchers that there is little systematic empirical evidence that foreign capital contributes to the economic growth of developing countries. In this context, this paper attempts to theoretically reevaluate the borrowing behaviour of a developing economy that relies on foreign borrowing for its capital formation. In particular, this paper investigates the implications of different lending policies of international financial institutions. It is found that no matter whether the borrowing interest rate increases with the level of foreign debt per capita or with the foreign‐capital/total‐capital ratio, the economy always moves toward the stationary state. The result holds even when the representative agent regards the interest rate given as constant. This implies that foreign borrowing does help economic growth, irrespective of lending policies of international financial institutions.     

Modelling economic hysteresis losses caused by sunk adjustment costs

Transition from one economic equilibrium to another as a consequence of shocks is often associated with sunk adjustment costs. Firm-specific sunk market entry investments (or sunk market exit costs) in case of a reaction to price shocks are an example. These adjustment costs lead to a dynamic supply pattern similar to hysteresis. In analogy to “hysteresis losses” in ferromagnetism, the authors explicitly model dynamic adjustment losses in the course of market entry and exit cycles. They start from the micro level of a single firm and use explicit aggregation tools from hysteresis theory in mathematics and physics to calculate dynamic losses. The authors show that strong market fluctuations generate disproportionately large hysteresis losses for producers. This could give a reason for the implementation of stabilizing measures and policies to prevent strong (price) variations or, alternatively, to reduce the sunk entry and exit costs.     

高新技术产业投资、沉淀成本与补偿制度创新

高新技术产业投资对我国国民经济发展具有重要的作用和潜在的扩张力,但由于没有充分利用高新技术产业投资,严重影响国民经济的整体发展.为此,本文从沉淀成本角度出发,使用一个动态的投资模型,探讨高新技术产业投资所面临的障碍以及提供刺激高新技术产业投资的基本原则,在于完善投资成本补偿机制:一方面,需要大力完善市场制度;另一方面,更需要大力完善非市场制度,同时,政府折旧和税收政策等也是不可替代的.     

人民币汇率双向波动对中国及世界经济的影响--基于单一国家和多国的动态 CGE 模型

随着人民币国际化进程的加快,人民币汇率波动的国际效应进一步加强。文章分别建立了单一国家和多国的动态 CGE 模型,基于最新的全球贸易分析计划(GTAP )数据库和中国2012年投入产出表,分别模拟了2016－2030年人民币持续贬值和先贬值后升值的两种情景,并从物价水平、国际贸易、经济总量、行业产出等多个方面分析了人民币汇率变动对中国及世界主要经济体的影响。研究发现：(1)在价格指数方面,人民币贬值将给中国带来一定的通货膨胀压力;(2)在贸易方面,人民币贬值只能在短期内扩大中国的净出口,但在远期反而会导致净出口下降;(3)在经济总量方面,人民币贬值只在开始阶段的短期内能促进中国经济增长,而长期贬值将导致中国经济增长速度放缓;(4)在产业结构方面,中国的农业和工业在贬值情景下的产量呈现先升后降的趋势,而服务业的产量持续下降。总之,两种情景均不利于中国经济的长远发展;相反,东盟、日本和美国等世界主要经济体将从中长期受益。因此,中国政府应当制定若干针对性的政策措施,加强预期管理,实施差别化的外贸政策,加强多方合作,积极应对国际汇率波动带来的风险。     

竞争战略、资本结构与企业业绩

文章认为,对于竞争性行业和垄断性行业的资本结构与企业业绩的相关性,可以尝试从不同的理论出发点来解释,对于竞争性行业而言,其保守的财务政策(低负债率)可能是基于行业竞争程度、资本市场条件以及企业竞争战略的理性商业选择,不一定是以往学者从代理问题出发得出的股权融资偏好。我国监管机构基于抑制股权融资偏好行为而制定的一系列股权融资约束似乎并未考虑到行业竞争程度的不同,这种资本市场的配置低效率使得我国上市公司面临着过度监管和监管不足并存的现象。     

经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的影响——基于非线性视角的实证分析

创新是经济发展的动力之源，而创新持续性则是企业保持竞争优势的关键。本文以2009—2020年A股上市公司为样本，探究经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的影响。研究发现：经济政策不确定与企业创新持续性之间具有“U型”非线性关系，且研发投入在其中发挥部分中介作用。进一步研究发现：经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的“U型”非线性影响在不同区位因素及知识产权保护力度差异下表现出异质性；多个大股东持股及较为宽松的货币政策能够缓解经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的“U型”影响。故政府在采用宏观经济政策调控经济发展时要谨慎把握政策调控的尺度，进一步完善我国多层次的资本市场体系，从而不断提升企业的创新持续性水平，推动我国经济的高质量发展。     

Constant Consumption and the Economic Depreciation of Natural Capital: The Nonautonomous Case

We investigate economic depreciation of natural capital for cases of nonstationary output prices, technology, and interest rates. For the former two cases (exogenous movements in prices and technology), constant consumption emerges under a strategy of investing to cover off economic depreciation. The interest rate case requires a modified sinking fund strategy.