Common Stock Returns and Rating Changes: A Methodological Comparison

This paper examines the adjustments in a firm's common stock price during the eleven months before and during the month of announcement of a bond rating change. Based on several different measures of abnormal security return, the findings are consistent with the proposition that bond downgradings convey information to common stockholders. For bond upgradings, the price adjustments were statistically insignificant in the month of announcement, although in the eleven preceding months, upgraded firms exhibited positive abnormal returns. While the results do not fully support earlier research, we stress that the main contribution of this article lies in the scrutiny it gives to issues of methodology in assessing the possible price effects of bond reclassifications.     

金融支持乡村旅游精准扶贫研究——以河南省为例

乡村旅游精准扶贫是一种典型的产业扶贫创新方式,是打好打赢脱贫攻坚战的重要生力军,而乡村旅游要做到精准扶贫,离不开金融的支持,金融是乡村旅游扶贫的重要推动力。运用文献检索法和调查法,以河南省金融支持乡村旅游精准扶贫为研究对象,立足河南乡村旅游扶贫过程中的金融需求,总结金融支持河南乡村精准旅游扶贫的现状、存在的问题及其栾川和中旅银行在乡村旅游扶贫中的经验及启示,最后提出精准识别农户的金融需求和乡村旅游项目、精准创新旅游金融服务、精准推出乡村旅游信贷产品等对策建议。     

Combining Census and Survey Data to Trace the Spatial Dimensions of Poverty: A Case Study of Ecuador

Poverty maps provide information on the spatial distributionof living standards. They are an important tool for policymakers,who rely on them to allocate transfers and inform policy design.Poverty maps are also an important tool for researchers, whouse them to investigate the relationship between distributionwithin a country and growth or other economic, environmental,or social outcomes. A major impediment to the development ofpoverty maps has been that needed data on income or consumptiontypically are available only from relatively small surveys.Census data have the required sample size but generally do nothave the required information. This article uses the case ofEcuador to demonstrate how sample survey data can be combinedwith census data to yield predicted poverty rates for the populationcovered by the census. These poverty rates are found to be preciselymeasured, even at fairly disaggregated levels. However, beyonda certain level of spatial disaggregation, standard errors riserapidly.     

The Poor and the Social Sectors during a Period of Macroeconomic Adjustment: Empirical Evidence for Jamaica

Considerable uncertainty remains about the human impact of macroeconomicadjustment. Analysis of the impact of adjustment on the poorand on the social sectors is difficult because it involves evaluatinga counterfactual situation in which households are affectedby prices, incomes, and public services with the possibilityof substantial substitutions—all within an economywideframework with complicated concurrent and lagged interactions.In this article, we utilize time-series data for Jamaica toexamine whether macroeconomic adjustment, initiated in the early1980s but intensified in 1984–85, was associated withsignificant deterioration in various indicators of health, nutritional,and welfare outcomes, particularly among the poor. Althoughwe find evidence of substantial cuts in governmental expenditureson social services, there is little confirmation of significantshort-run deterioration in human capital indicators during theadjustment period.     

Poverty in Russia during the Transition: An Overview

It is no surprise that the breakup of the Soviet Union and theoverall demise of the planned economy has had a profound effecton the welfare of the Russian people. But the absence of reliablesurvey data has constrained our understanding of the impactthat transition has had on the distribution of income. Thisarticle draws upon several rounds of a nationally representativehousehold survey to document the sharp increases in the incidenceand severity of poverty that have occurred during the transition.We investigate the routes by which macroeconomic and structuraldevelopments have been transmitted through the labor marketand examine the performance of an increasingly overburdened,unfocused, and inadequate system of social protection. Thereis no evidence to suggest that the poor have shared in Russia'semerging economic recovery, and the emergence of a core groupof long-term poor appears to be a distinct possibility.      

Crafting Compromises in a Strategising Process: A Case Study of an International Development Organisation

This paper focuses on how organisational members in non‐governmental organisations (NGO) can develop credible and legitimate strategic plans and positions out of diverse and conflicting perspectives. Using empirical data drawn from a strategic planning episode in an international development NGO, the study examines the process of ‘crafting compromises’ whereby organisational members make mutual adjustments and concessions to reach consensus on new strategic plans and positions. The analysis shows that two processes facilitate crafting compromises in strategising; being adaptive and responsive to critique as strategic positions are developed, and an ability to forge relevant connections between new strategic proposals and past strategic positions.     

贫困内涵及其测量方法新探索

目前,不论在国内还是在国际上,对贫困的理解已经超越了收入范围,即贫困不仅仅指收入低下,而且包括能力缺乏、社会排斥、健康状况差、缺乏医疗保健、缺少机会和权利等等。然而,与贫困的全方位理解形成鲜明对比的是,几乎所有的贫困测量还都是以收入为标准的,因此,探索一种涉及经济、社会、政治等各方面因素在内的贫困测量方法成为一种挑战。     

Real Options Valuation: A Case Study of an E‐commerce Company

This paper presents a real options valuation model with original solutions to some issues that arise frequently when trying to apply these models to real‐life situations. The authors build on existing models by introducing an innovative and intuitive risk neutral adjustment that allows us to work with all the simulated paths. The problem of incorporating real options into each path is solved with a “nearest neighbors” technique, and uncertainty is simulated using a beta distribution that adapts better to company‐specific information. The model is then applied to a real life e‐commerce company to produce the following insights: the expanded present value is higher than the traditional present value; the presence of several real options make them interact so that their values are nonadditive; and part of the expanded present value is explained by the presence of “Jensen's inequality” that stems from the “convexity” between the value of each year's cash flow and the uncertain variables.     

后脱贫时代金融扶贫模式的转型探索——以河北阜平县为例

以金融扶贫的阜平模式为例,探索了后脱贫时代金融扶贫向普惠金融的转型问题。指出阜平模式的核心经验在于政府主导,以联办共保模式为农业产业风险兜底,建立风险共担机制撬动金融资源扶贫,打造县、乡、村三级金融服务网络与金融机构协同推进线下普惠金融发展等;发现阜平模式的脱贫成效显著,但在可持续发展方面,受到县级政府财力薄弱、保险公司运营亏损、担保公司代偿比例过高及金融服务网络效率低下等因素的困扰。最后从脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴衔接和可持续发展的角度提出发展数字普惠金融和探索"保险+期货"模式、建立稳固的农业产业链、加大代偿贷款的清收力度、完善三级金融服务体系和农村信用体系等对策建议。     

银行精准扶贫效率评价及影响因素研究——以福建南平为例

本文以福建南平五个省级重点扶贫开发县为样本,对银行精准扶贫效率展开了一系列定量及定性分析。结果表明,随着扶贫工作的推进和监管引导力度的加大,银行精准扶贫效率在逐步提升;但其精准度仍不理想,存在对贫困对象信息、需求掌握不全与扶贫小额信贷覆盖比例偏低等问题。在此基础上,本文进一步进行了对影响扶贫效率的因素进行了定量与定性相结合的实证研究。研究发现,金融创新环境、财政支持力度、信息交流机制与信用风险状况等是影响银行精准扶贫效率的重要因素。最后,本文建议,应加大信贷资金、监管考评与政府相关工作机制的精准对接,以破解阻碍银行精准扶贫效率提升的根本问题,提高银行精准扶贫的实效。     

Identifying Fraud in Online Auctions: A Case Study

According to the FBI (IC3, 2011), losses as a result of auto‐auction fraud exceeded $8.2 million dollars in 2011. How can one detect deception in online auction transactions? The authors use a comprehensive case to teach students about deception detection processes, detection cues, and the e‐commerce environment. Students are challenged to make a professional judgment about whether the transaction under consideration is an attempt to deceive. The case is based on a real‐life situation and provides a valuable exercise for business students, educating them in the reality of online auction markets and developing their critical thinking skills. The case may be used with undergraduate accounting majors in Accounting Information Systems classes and with graduate students in an e‐commerce course either as an in‐class assignment or as a term project. Students provided favorable responses as to the value of the case.     

村镇银行的扶贫效应:省域视角下的研究

村镇银行旨在服务三农、践行普惠金融、推进农村金融体制改革,天然肩负了金融扶贫的任务,处在金融助力脱贫攻坚的前线。本文选取2012—2016年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的村镇银行和扶贫数据,分析村镇银行的扶贫效应。实证结果发现,村镇银行扶贫过程中存在以下三种效应:一是累积效应,即各省(直辖市、自治区)村镇银行数量越多,扶贫效果越好;二是同域效应,即与发起行位于同省(直辖市、自治区)的村镇银行数量越多,扶贫效果越好;三是补充效应,在经济金融欠发达的省域,村镇银行能够发挥较好的扶贫效果,即村镇银行的设立和运作弥补了部分欠发达省域扶贫金融服务的短板。此外,村镇银行在农村扶贫效应显著,而在城市扶贫作为有限。为进一步推动村镇银行加强和改进金融扶贫,提出以下对策建议:第一,通过税收政策支持等方式,鼓励和引导设立更多村镇银行,充分发挥村镇银行支农支小、践行普惠金融的特色和特长;第二,鼓励有条件的商业银行作为发起行在其总部所在省域的农村地区新设村镇银行,通过同域效应充分发挥本乡本土和地缘人缘优势,使金融发展的成果惠及更多的贫困群体;第三,引导和鼓励在金融基础设施建设较差、金融体系不健全的农村地区设立村镇银行,扩大金融服务的覆盖面,真正实现金融扶贫力量下沉,助力农村脱贫。     

特殊经济恢复期内商业银行经营调整之策

当前全球经济运行处于2008年金融危机后的特殊经济恢复期,外部市场和金融监管环境都在发生重大变化。本文认为,在深刻理解和准确把握当前经济恢复特殊性的基础上,商业银行需要从形势判断、风险选择、风险安排、资本管理、内部控制、产品创新、结构调整等多方面采取措施,积极主动安排风险,有效平衡资本、风险和收益,形成适合自身特点的经营策略,才能化挑战为机遇。     

Small-Scale Industry, Environmental Regulation, and Poverty: The Case of Brazil

Governments and international development agencies have intensifiedefforts to promote small-scale enterprises as an engine of propoorgrowth. In Brazil, however, small-scale industries may alsobe responsible for the bulk of air pollution emissions. Althoughemployees of polluting small-scale industries in Brazil arenot disproportionately poor, simulations suggest that stringentenvironmental regulation resulting in widespread closures ofpollution-intensive small-scale industries would result in anonnegligible increase in poverty among employees of these firms.The results suggest that the enthusiasm for small-scale enterprisesneeds to be tempered by awareness of the potential environmentalcosts imposed by this sector.     

Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia: A Bottom-Up Default Analysis

Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bottom-Up Default Analysis (BuDA) approach, which allows projecting corporate probabilities of default (PDs) under different macroeconomic scenarios. In particular, a protracted recession and the ensuing currency depreciation could erode buffers on corporate balance sheets, pushing up the probabilities of default (PDs) in the corporate sector to the high levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis. While this is a low-probability scenario, the results suggest the need to closely monitor vulnerabilities and strengthen contingency plans.     

Transition Period of Mandated Accounting Changes — Timing of Adoption and Economic Consequences: The Case of SEAS No. 13

This study examines the economics of the timing of adoption of SFAS No. 13, Accounting for Leases by Lessees . We analyzed actual debt contracts of the affected firms to determine whether they were based on GAAP or Non-GAAP accounting rules. We also examined what actions were taken by management to alleviate the negative effects of complying with SFAS No. 13 . The results indicate that late adopters had a higher percentage of debt convenants based on GAAP measures, and that the late adopters would have experienced significant increases in closeness to default had they adopted SFAS No. 13 early. The results also indicate that by choosing late adoption, the firms were able to reduce the expected negative effects of the new accounting standard on financial statements.     

基于博弈论视角的支出型贫困救助政策扩散研究

支出型贫困救助政策的实施契合精准扶贫理论,但在政策实施过程中出现政策模式"碎片化"现象。运用政策扩散理论对支出型贫困救助政策在扩散过程中出现的政策变异情况进行分析。全国支出型贫困救助政策可分为临时救助模式和试点救助模式;进一步运用博弈论对两种模式出现的原因进行分析,得出以下结论:受上级对下级的监督成本、财政预算约束、政绩导向等因素影响,各级政府在政策制定过程中进行了博弈,并导致了政策在扩散过程中的变异。由此提出应出台统一的政策、实行有效的政策考核机制及对落后地区的财政补助等措施,以促进我国支出型贫困救助制度的建立与发展。