我国政府和企业投资重点、时点及地点组合研究

目前我国在政府和企业投资的研究领域中,只是单纯考虑投资重点、投资时点和投资地点中某一项或两项因素的影响指标,很少将三者组合起来进行分析,但是三者均对投资起着至关重要的作用,本文运用焦点问题法,以评价指标体系为切入点,通过分析每个点的影响指标,从而建立一套相对完善的投资选择综合评价指标体系,并在分析量化相关指标的基础上,确立了模糊综合评价的方法对投资中重点、时点、地点进行评价,对于我国政府和企业投资决策的全面性起到了关键作用,并为投资决策提供了良好的判断依据.     

Consequences,morality, and time in environmental risk evaluation

Environmental risks pose a serious problem to individual and societal decision‐making, and the public debate is often characterized by a conflict between morally‐principled and technically oriented points of view. Drawing on previous work of Böhm and Pfister (), we propose a model on how environmental risks are cognitively represented and how risks are evaluated. The model suggests two evaluative pathways, evaluations of consequences and evaluation of moral considerations, each leading to a distinct set of emotions and action tendencies. Either one of these pathways may become dominant depending on the evaluative focus of the person, which, in turn, depends on the causal structure of the risk. An experimental study yields confirming evidence for this model. Furthermore, the influence of time perspective, that is, the delay of negative consequences caused by an environmental risk, is investigated. Contrary to the common assumption, only weak evidence for temporal discounting effects is found. It is concluded that environmental risks, due to their strong moral component, are partly immune to time perspective.     

Auditor environmental assessments

Classic rule-based systems appeared to have enormous potential for accounting and auditing problems. Unfortunately, there has been limited adoption of those systems. Why have those systems not lived up to their promise? This paper pursues one potential explanation.Typically, expert systems require that the user provides it with environmental assessments. Unfortunately, those assessments vary based on who is making the assessment. This paper finds that a group of partners and managers, when compared to a group of staff, each generated different environmental assessments to the same situation. However, in a rule-based system, different assessments can lead the user to different recommendations. As a result, different users in the same situations can generate different solutions from the same system. Accordingly, the quality of the recommendations from an expert systems are not “user neutral.”.     

Media image of the CEO and the impact on auditors' perception of financial reporting reliability and client risk assessments

Regulators and legislators have recently adopted new governance reforms in an attempt to encourage more normative behavior by those in charge of organizations. It should not be surprising, therefore, that the image of the CEO projected by the media has become increasingly salient to decision makers. Still, the impact of CEO image on stakeholders' perceptions and subsequent behavior has received little attention by accounting researchers. In response to this void, we examine the relationship between two important environmental cues: CEO's image as presented in the media and earnings consistency. Our interest is the degree to which these variables influence auditors' perception of the ethics of corporate management, as well as their assessments of the risk of fraudulent financial statements. We document that auditor perceptions are influenced by positive media cues as well as negative cues. These results are inconsistent with auditors exercising professional skepticism which implies no reliance on positive cues, especially “managed media cues”. These results suggest that auditors, similar to others, are not immune to positive media cues about the CEO. This study contributes to the research literature examining factors that affect the perceived reliability of financial information by considering the effect of non-financial information—CEO image.     

Performance of closely held firms in Russia: evidence from firm-level data∗

This paper evaluates the impact of ownership concentration on firm performance in a weak institutional environment. Specifically, using new survey evidence, we seek to appraise quantitatively the performance of block-holder-controlled firms in Russia and to identify, within the domain of corporate governance theory, factors that may explain such performance. We find evidence of negative association between the size of the dominant owners’ shareholding and performance parameters such as investment, capacity utilization, and profitability. At the same time, we establish that control structures with multiple, large shareholders increase efficiency. The ambiguity of the effects of ownership concentration suggests that country-specific factors play an important role.     

Performance of Enhanced Index and Quantitative Equity Funds

We examine the performance of enhanced index and quantitative equity funds. Both types of funds use quantitative models in investment selection. Enhanced index funds set an explicit objective to outperform a benchmark index. Proponents of quantitative funds argue that their management style takes human emotions out of the investment decision‐making process and leads to more objective stock selection. We find evidence of outperformance by quantitatively managed growth funds, especially those investing in small cap stocks.     

Usefulness of CCA Information for Investor Decision Making: A Laboratory Experiment

The aim of this study was to test the assertion of New Zealand company directors that CCA information was not useful for investor decision making. Subjects made investment decisions based on their predictions concerning two similar, real (identity disguised) companies. These decisions and other evaluations were made in a post-test only, control group design experiment. CCA's relevance and reliability according to particular definitions of these characteristics was thus assessed. The results show that current cost accounts are more useful for investor decision making because they are both more relevant and perceived to be more reliable than conventional historical cost accounts.     

寿险资金运用的风险限额管理

资金运用风险是寿险公司面临的两大最主要风险之一,加强资金运用风险管理对确保寿险公司持续稳健经营至关重要。风险限额管理作为风险管理的核心内容,是风险管理体系中不可或缺的组成部分。建立一个科学、可操作和有效的风险限额管理体系,为寿险资金运用风险管理提供控制标准,是决定风险管理成效的关键环节。本文借鉴风险限额分配模型,总结寿...     

Advertising in the mutual fund business: The role of judgmental heuristics in private investors' evaluation of risk and return

Effective advertising strategies are of growing importance in the mutual fund industry due to keen competition and changes in market structure. But the dominant variables in financial decision making, investor's perceived investment risk and expected return, have not yet been analysed in an advertising context, although these productrelated evaluations can be influenced by advertising and therefore serve as additional indicators of advertising effectiveness. In this study, the authors use a large-scale experimental study (n=499) to detect how risk-return assessments of private investors are influenced by specific elements of print ads. In this context, judgmental heuristics used systematically by private investors play a crucial role.     

The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts

Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two‐day size‐adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.     

The influence of product market dynamics on a firm's cash holdings and hedging behavior

Prior work suggests that if a firm shares a larger proportion of its growth opportunities with rivals, an inability to fully invest in these opportunities leads to predatory behavior on the part of rivals and losses in market share. We examine whether firms manage this predation risk. We find inter- and intra-industry evidence that the extent of the interdependence of a firm's investment opportunities with rivals is positively associated with its use of derivatives and the size of its cash holdings. Moreover, an analysis of investment behavior provides evidence that if this interdependence is high, the management of predation risk provides strategic benefits. Our results indicate that predation risk is an important determinant of corporate financial policy choices and investment behavior.     

Analysts' Roundtable on Integrating ESG into Investment Decision‐Making

In this third of the three discussions that took place at the SASB 2016 Symposium, practitioners of a broad range of investment approaches—active as well as passive in both equities and fixed‐income—explain how and why they use ESG information when evaluating companies and making their investment decisions. There was general agreement that successful ESG investing depends on integrating ESG factors with the methods and data of traditional “fundamental” financial statement analysis. And in support of this claim, a number of the panelists noted that some of the world's best “business value investors,” including Warren Buffett, have long incorporated environmental, social, and governance considerations into their investment decision‐making. In the analysis of such active fundamental investors, ESG concerns tend to show up as risk factors that can translate into higher costs of capital and lower values. And companies' effectiveness in managing such factors, as ref lected in high ESG scores and rankings, is viewed by many fundamental investors as an indicator of management “quality,” a reliable demonstration of the corporate commitment to investing in the company's future. Moreover, some fixed‐income investors are equally if not more concerned than equity investors about ESG exposures. ESG factors can have pronounced effects on performance by generating “tail risks” that can materialize in both going‐concern and default scenarios. And the rating agencies have long attempted to reflect some of these risks in their analysis, though with mixed success. What is relatively new, however, is the frequency with which fixed income investors are engaging companies on ESG topics. And even large institutional investors with heavily indexed portfolios have become more aggressive in engaging their portfolio companies on ESG issues. Although the traditional ESG filters used by such investors were designed mainly just to screen out tobacco, firearms, and other “sin” shares from equity portfolios, investors' interest in “tilting” their portfolios toward positive sustainability factors, in the form of lowcarbon and gender‐balanced ETFs and other kinds of “smart beta” portfolios, has gained considerable momentum.     

Accounting for Investments in Human Capital: A Review

This paper provides an overview of the human capital literature, focusing on the firm's incentives and disincentives to invest in human capital and subsequently to account for the investments. The evidence suggests human capital investment decisions are intrinsically linked to the success of a business and ultimately to the probability of survival. However, disclosure is largely a voluntary choice by managers as there are few formal disclosure requirements. The conclusion from the evidence shows that the benefits to stakeholders of disclosing information relating to human capital investment are likely to outweigh the costs and suggests a wide range of topics for future research.     

Measuring Compliance with the Golden Rule

The golden rule of public finance is based upon the notin that intergenerational equity requires that the cost of public expenditures be spread over time in a manner that reflects the intertemporal distribution of the benefits generated by those expenditures. This is often translated into a rule that the budget be structurally balanced in accrual accounting terms. This article considers the form of accrual accounting that is most suited to the task of measuring the consistency of fiscal policy with the golden rule. It recommends a combination of the real capital maintenance approach (also known as ‘current purchasing power accounting’) and annuity depreciation. Such an approach differs from ‘current cost accounting’, which has dominated public sector models of accrual accounting in recent years. The meaning of balance-sheet measures is also considered, and it is concluded that the golden rule is more appropriately expressed as an accrual balanced budget requirement than as a requirement for the maintenance of constant net worth. JEL classification: H6, M40.     

The effect of benchmarked performance measures and strategic analysis on auditors’ risk assessments and mental models

As the audit environment becomes more demanding and complex, so does the set of analytical tools available to an auditor. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of two complex audit technologies commonly used by auditors, benchmarking of performance measures and strategic analysis, on the risk judgments of auditors carrying out the initial planning of an audit. We conduct an experiment that utilizes a Balanced Scorecard for organizing and evaluating analytical evidence about the performance of business units within a large client. Our first principal finding is that external benchmarking can cause an auditor to focus on performance measures that are unique to a business unit and disregard performance measures that are common to multiple business units but not benchmarked. However, our second finding is that an in-depth strategic analysis completed prior to assessing a client’s business risk or risk of material misstatement allows an auditor to incorporate more information from performance measures in risk assessments regardless of whether the performance measures are benchmarked. Strategic analysis facilitates a more balanced and accurate assessment of the risks across the business units being evaluated. We also provide evidence that the latter result occurs because in-depth strategic analysis allows auditors to develop a more complete mental model of a client, which has been a long time belief of advocates of business risk audit methodologies and consistent with current and emerging auditing standards on risk assessment.     

The information content of portfolio performance history and persistence in fund performance: An examination of rollover funds

This paper examines the relation between past and future performance and explores the optimal past performance information set for a subset of Australian investment funds, namely, rollover funds. Four categories of funds are examined: fixed interest; multi-sector yield; multi-sector balanced; and multi-sector growth. This study extends the performance persistence literature through the use of three methodologies (1) regression analysis;(2) non-parametric contingency tables; and (3) top (and bottom) quartile rankings to explore the information content of fund performance history for groups of funds differentiated by investment objective. The results of the regression analysis suggest that there is evidence in support of persistence in performance for the fixed interest funds (particularly when performance is measured in terms of Jensen Alpha) but much more ambiguous evidence in relation to the multi-sector funds. Contingency table analysis of fund performance histories of varying lengths reveals quite different results depending upon whether raw or risk-adjusted returns are used. Use of raw returns creates an overall impression of performance reversals, whereas use of risk-adjusted returns suggests the existence of performance persistence. Finally, the use of prior period top-quartile and bottom-quartile ranking are found to show strong evidence of persistence in respect to the risk-adjusted performance of fixed-interest funds.     

Antitakeover Provisions and Firm Value: New Evidence from the M&A Market

New evidence from acquisition decisions suggests that antitakeover provisions (ATPs) may increase firm value when internal corporate governance is sufficiently strong. We document that, in Germany, firms with stronger ATPs, and particularly supermajority provisions, are better acquirers. Managers of high-ATP firms create value in acquisitions by making governance-improving deals. They are more likely to engage in acquisitions that reduce their own entrenchment level and less likely to invest in declining industries. The empirical evidence is consistent with a short-termist interpretation. Takeover threats can induce myopic investment decisions, which ATPs can mitigate. They lead managers to engage more often in value-creating long-term and innovative investing, and increase a firm's sensitivity to investment opportunities. Our findings contribute to a growing literature challenging conventional wisdom that the agency-increasing effect of ATPs empirically dominates the myopia-eliminating effect, suggesting that a more contextual view of the value implications of ATPs is necessary.     

Corporate diversification,investment efficiency and the business cycle

I document the time-varying investment efficiency of conglomerates compared with single-segment firms. I find that, during recessions, conglomerates have higher Q-sensitivity of investment than do stand-alone firms, in contrast to the relationship during expansion periods. I also find that conglomerates, with the benefits from internal capital markets, exhibit increased dependence of investment on internal capital during recessionary periods, while stand-alone firms significantly increase cash retention and deviate their investment from its optimal level more severely. I examine the effect of the degree of diversification and find consistent evidence on investment efficiency and deployment of internal capital. I also provide evidence that conglomerates with stronger governance do not improve investment efficiency during recession, which suggests that agency costs cannot fully explain the changes in investment of conglomerates.     

Gender and corporate finance: Are male executives overconfident relative to female executives?

We examine corporate financial and investment decisions made by female executives compared with male executives. Male executives undertake more acquisitions and issue debt more often than female executives. Further, acquisitions made by firms with male executives have announcement returns approximately 2% lower than those made by female executive firms, and debt issues also have lower announcement returns for firms with male executives. Female executives place wider bounds on earnings estimates and are more likely to exercise stock options early. This evidence suggests men exhibit relative overconfidence in significant corporate decision making compared with women.     

The National Audit Office's Evaluation of RIAs: Reflections on the Pilot Year

In 2003, the National Audit Office undertook its first year of evaluations of the quality of a sample of Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs). This article reflects on the experiences of this pilot year. It sets out the background to the National Audit Office's work, describes the methodology adopted, and then explains the main findings. Finally, it considers the benefits and limitations of this type of ex-post evaluation of the quality of RIAs.