A Note on the Estimation of Non-Differentiable Functions of MuItinomial ProbabiIities

Abstract. Consider the problem of estimating f(θ ) where fis a given function and 8 is the unknown parameter of a multinomial distribution. In order to describe the asymptotic behaviour of the frequency substitution estimator, conventional methods typically require differentiability of f , and the error representations depend on the unknown parameter θ.
In this note, a pararneter-free bound for the mean square error is derived which requires continuity of f only.     

SPLIT–PLOT DESIGN: MODEL AND ANALYSIS FOR COUNT DATA

The analysis of count response data from designed experiments is well–known for independent response variables having the Poisson distribution. For experimental designs where responses are dependent, no general results seem to be available. An example of this type of design is the split–plot design, where sub–plot responses are essentially dependent within whole plots.
In this paper, a model will be proposed for split–plot count data and a separate analysis for whole plot and sub–plot data will be presented. It is interesting to note, that the same model is used in the quite different context of consumer buying behaviour. It is derived by Goodhardt, Ehrenberg and Chatfield and it was called the 'Dirichlet model', as the Dirichlet multinomial distribution, together with the negative binomial distribution, build up the model.     

MODELS FOR RESPONSE DATA SHOWING EXTRA-POISSON VARIATION

When count data show extra-Poisson variation, standard log-linear techniques to analyse the data may fail. In ihis paper a generalization of the log-linear modelling technique is proposed for the negative binomial model, as an extension of the Poisson model. An illustration is given by the analysis of a twoway classification of soldering failure data; extensions to more general classifications are possible.     

配电自动化系统中分布式终端的设计与应用

文章通过对配电终端市场的功能需求分析,设计出了具有故障自动检测与识别功能、提供稳定的工作电源、能够适应户外恶劣条件等功能的智能终端装置,并通过系统调试、现场使用,验证其可靠性。     

德国分布式电源接入低压配电网运行管理规定

随着太阳能光伏发电、生物质发电等容量较小的节能环保型电源的快速发展,以分布式电源的形式接入低压配电网的需求不断增加。分布式电源接入低压配电网会对电网电能质量和安全稳定运行产生一定影响,为此,德国制定了相应的分布式电源接入低压配电网运行管理规定。本文介绍了该规定的范围、管理规定和技术要求,以为我国制定相关规定提供参考。     

The Logit Model in Economics

This paper reviews aspects of the application of logit models in economics. We consider some economic models that lead to a simple or a multinomial logit specification. A detailed account is given of the possible specifications of the multinomial model. We stress the relationship between distributional assumptions and functional form assumptions. Some (mis)specification tests with individual data are discussed. Moreover, we present a new test. We also consider grouping of continuously recorded data, and the biases introduced by an inappropriate grouping.     

基于集散系数的配送中心选址改进模型研究

针对连锁店终端配送中配送中心的选址问题,考虑连锁店销售业绩、周边市场发展潜力和配送中心与各连锁店的空间距离等因素影响,提出配送中心集散系数的概念,建立了基于集散系数的配送中心选址模型,并通过禁忌搜索算法得出理论上的最优选址点。为增加该模型的实用性,又考虑了区位交通条件因素和城市地价因素的影响,用专家法得出这两个因素的权重系数,从而改进了初始模型,并利用非线性规划中步长法的思想,以实现配送中心的选址优化,希望对业界发展提供参考。     

中外合资企业合资模型选择的案例研究

随着经济发展的全球化,合资企业这一组织形式逐渐备受瞩目。经验证据表明,合资企业的失败率相当高,其中一个重要的原因就是合资模型的选择不当。本文首先阐述了Killing合资模型的三种类型,然后回顾了管理控制权与合资企业绩效关系的有关理论,最后以乐山—菲尼克斯公司为例,分析了其优势方管理合资模型的选择背景和过程,并阐明了该合资模型的优越性。     

ON THE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR BETA – BINOMIA

The beta–binomial distribution is reported in literature as a useful generalization of the binomial in case of heterogeneous binomial sampling. An extra model parameter is introduced to accommodate for extra–binomial variation. Some additions to results already available will be given by presenting approximate F–tests for factorial designs, where the response variable is of 0–1 type and sampling is heterogeneous binomial. These tests can be used when sample sizes are large and equal and some degrees of freedom are left from replicates or negligible interactions to estimate the extra model parameter.     

基于反向思维进化算法的分布式电源选址和定容

以含分布式电源配电网规划为研究对象,提出一种反向思维的进化算法,对配电网规划中分布式电源的选址和定容进行优化。建立了含分布式电源配电网规划模型,利用Matlab仿真工具对所提算法进行了仿真,算例仿真结果表明,本算法全局搜索能力较强,收敛速度较快,可适用于配电网的规划优化。     

Multinomial distributions applied to random sampling of particulate materials

When sampling a batch consisting of particulate material, the distribution of a sample estimator can be characterized using knowledge about the sample drawing process. With Bernoulli sampling, the number of particles in the sample is binomially distributed. Because this is rarely realized in practice, we propose a sampling design in which the possible samples have a nearly equal mass. Expected values and variances of the sample estimator are calculated. It is shown that the sample estimator becomes identical to the Horvitz–Thompson estimator in the case of a large batch-to-sample mass ratio and a large sample mass. Simulations and experiments were performed to test the theory. Simulations confirm that the round-off error due to the discrete nature of particles is negligible for large sample sizes. Sampling experiments were carried out with a mixture of PolyPropylene (PP) and PolyTetraFluorEthylene (PTFE) spheres suspended in a viscous medium. The measured and theoretical variations are in good agreement.     

试分析含分布式电源的配电网潮流计算

本文首先分析了分布式电源所具有的模型,并向人们介绍了计算配电网潮流的基本方法;然后以此作为基础,给出了前推回代法,并利用此法,分析了潮流计算的具体模型;最后对含有分布式电源的配电网进行了潮流计算。     

国际合资企业的知识管理研究——从外方母公司获取知识

国际合资企业的成功一直是跨国经营理论界和实践界共同关注的问题。基于知识的理论认为,从外方母公司获取知识是国际合资企业提高竞争力、获得成功的一个非常重要因素。本文重点分析了国际合资企业获取知识的理论基础、方法途径、具体过程和影响因素。同时,结合中外合资企业的经营实践,对于如何加强知识的学习、转移和创新,促进中外合资企业自身发展提出了建议。     

Efficient parameter estimation for independent and INAR(1) negative binomial samples

We consider moment based estimation methods for estimating parameters of the negative binomial distribution that are almost as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation and far superior to the celebrated zero term method and the standard method of moments estimator. Maximum likelihood estimators are difficult to compute for dependent samples such as samples generated from the negative binomial first-order autoregressive integer-valued processes. The power method of estimation is suggested as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation for such samples and a comparison is made of the asymptotic normalized variance between the power method, method of moments and zero term method estimators.     

The Solution of Updating or Regionalizing a Matrix with both Positive and Negative Entries

Normally, when updating or regionalizing input-output matrices with negative entries, the negative numbers are first brought outside the matrix, then the matrix is updated or regionalized, then the negative numbers are added back to the result. This is theoretically, and sometimes also empirically, a rather unsatisfactory procedure. This paper proposes a theoretically sound alternative for the presently used ad hoc procedure. Based on the first-order conditions of a restated information loss problem, we generalize the RAS-procedure using reciprocals of the exponential transformations of the related Lagrange multipliers. The diagonal matrices that update or regionalize a given matrix optimally are the solutions of a fixed-point problem. To derive a numerical solution, the paper presents the GRAS-algorithm, which is illustrated in terms of a simple updating example.     

Benefiting from negative feedback

This article discusses why it is so hard for people to benefit from negative feedback. We examine factors involved in the effective use of negative feedback. Our analysis suggests that the main obstacles to the effective use of negative feedback stem from the failure to obtain it and the failure to conduct an accurate appraisal of it. This is in contrast to research indicating that the main obstacle to the effective use of positive feedback lies more in avoiding its detrimental consequences after repeated exposure to it than in obtaining it or appraising it.     

城市道路行人违章行为分析

本文以成都市为调查背景,选取平面信号控制交叉口及路段的人行横道作为调查地点,对影响行人违章过街的13个指标进行实地调查。采用因子分析法提取公因子,建立无序多分类Logistic回归模型对影响因子进行分析。研究结果表明不同影响因素对不同行人违章过街行为具有不同效用。     

The Brand Choice Model of Wine Consumers: A Multinomial Logit Model

The objective of this study is to determine factors influencing brand preferences of wine consumers in the Marmara region where viniculture and wine production is so important in Turkey. First, the consumers’ preferences survey has been conducted with 1022 persons in the region randomly selected and evaluated. Then, the informative factors influencing brand preferences collected in these surveys have been determined by the multinomial logit model. A lot of independent variables have been used in the multinomial logit model, but, because some independent variables were not found as significant according to Likelihood Ratio test, these variables are not included in the multinomial logit analysis. Six important factors influencing wine brand preferences have been determined. These factors are brand change causes of consumers, occupation of consumers, marital status of consumers, birthplace of consumers, income of consumers and gender of consumers. In addition, whether the wine brand preferences are independent, has been tested with Testing Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives of Hausman. According to this test, it has been found that the wine brand preferences are independent.