Does Corruption Persist In Sub-Saharan Africa?

Corruption is said to be characterized by persistence. This conclusion is derived from the theoretical literature, although little empirical evidence exists to support it. Using corruption ratings data from the Political Risk Services Group, International Country Risk Guide on 110 countries from 1984 through 2006, I seek to determine whether or not corruption has actually exhibited persistence over this period. The Markov Transition Chain Matrices were used in the empirical analysis. The calculations show that corruption does persist in more than half of the sample. Next I focus on two regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa. The analysis shows these regions to be characterized by persistent corruption.

The effect of capital requirement regulation on the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from Austria

This paper analyzes the role of banks’ regulatory capitalization in the transmission of monetary policy. We use a confidential dataset for Austrian banks spanning from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2003. We find evidence that Austrian banks react in an asymmetric way to monetary policy depending on their regulatory excess capitalization, i.e. low capitalized banks react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their highly capitalized peers.

How does monetary policy transmission mechanism work in Fiji?

The study aims to examine the impact of changes in policy variables namely, monetary aggregate (M1), exchange rate and interest rate on two monetary goal variables, namely output and price level in Fiji from 1970 to 2006 by applying the procedures of variance decomposition and impulse response functions. We conclude that the money channel is the most effective channel of transmission mechanism among the three channels.

Comparing monetary policy reaction functions: ECB versus Bundesbank

This paper compares the European Central Bank’s (ECB) conduct of monetary policy with that of the Bundesbank. Estimated monetary policy reaction functions show that the ECB reacts similarly to expected inflation but significantly stronger to the output gap than the Bundesbank did. Theoretical considerations suggest that this stronger response to the output gap may rather be due to a higher interest rate sensitivity of the German output gap than to a higher weight given to output stabilisation in the objective function of the ECB. Counterfactual simulations based on the estimated interest rate reaction functions reveal that German interest rates would not have been lower under a hypothetical Bundesbank regime after 1999. However, this conclusion crucially depends on the assumption of an unchanged long-run real interest rate for the EMU period and is reversed when the Bundesbank reaction function is adjusted for the lower long-run real interest rate estimated for the ECB regime.

Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey

We analyze the link between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics in two new and two potential EU member states: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey. Given the different institutional settings of the exchange rate market in the countries of interest, we follow two different modelling strategies. For Romania and Turkey, we evaluate possible exchange rate misalignments based on a monetary model of exchange rate determination. In the case of Bulgaria and Croatia, with currency board and narrow-band peg arrangements against the euro, we discuss possible exit strategies and quantitatively assess the effects of the peg arrangements by means of simulation.

Testing for unit and fractional orders of integration in the trend and seasonal components of US monetary aggregates

Monthly seasonally unadjusted data can exhibit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration, corresponding to the monthly but also to the quarterly and to the long-run or trending components of the series. In this paper we use a procedure which is suitable to test simultaneously for the order of integration of each of these components and apply it to several US monetary aggregates.

Monetary policy as bad medicine: The volatile relationship between business cycles and asset prices

Austrian business cycle theory has become an important point of focus in controversial mainstream discussions regarding the role of asset prices in monetary policy. In this article, the relation between asset prices and the Austrian business cycle theory is examined. The analysis focuses on how central banking supports optimism, resulting in the redirection of entrepreneurial activity and knowledge via asset price bubbles. The crucial role of credit expansion for asset price booms is also analyzed. Following this analysis, the implications for monetary policy are deduced.

Unemployment disparities and regional wage flexibility: comparing EU members and EU-accession countries

This paper provides empirical evidence on regional labor market flexibility in Europe and, in particular, in the EU-accession countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Whereas substantial regional disparities in unemployment are found for pre-accession EU member countries as well as for accession countries, an empirical analysis taking account of spatial effects shows that regional wage flexibility is significantly higher for accession countries. Moreover, unemployment disparities are found to be less persistent in the accession countries.

Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union

The prevalence of different fiscal regimes is important both for practical policy reasons and to assess fiscal sustainability, notably for European Union countries. The purpose of this article is to assess, with a panel data set, the empirical evidence concerning the existence of Ricardian fiscal regimes in EU-15 countries. The results give support to the Ricardian fiscal regime hypothesis throughout the sample period, and for sub-samples accounting for the dates of the Maastricht Treaty and for the setting-up of the Stability and Growth Pact. Furthermore, electoral budget cycles also seem to play a relevant role in fiscal behaviour.

Transaction tax and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market

This study examines the impact of a stamp tax rate increase on market behavior, using data from two stock exchanges in China. We find that when the tax rate increases from 0.3 to 0.5% (which implies that the transaction cost increases by about 1/3) trading volume decreases by 1/3. This implies an elasticity of turnover with respect to a stamp tax of −50% and an elasticity of turnover with respect to transaction cost of −100%. The markets’ volatility significantly increases after the increase in the tax rate. Furthermore, the change in the volatility structure indicates that the markets become less efficient in the sense that shocks are less quickly assimilated in the markets.

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The sector bias of skill-biased technical change and the rising skill premium in transition economies

We test the hypothesis that the sector bias of skill biased technical change is important in explaining the rising relative wage of skilled workers in the manufacturing sector in three Central and Eastern European transition countries. The econometric results broadly confirm that the concentration of skill biased technical change in the skill intensive sectors had a significant effect on the skill premium in these transition countries.

A Regional Perspective on Aid and FDI in Southern Africa

During the last decade international aid flows diminished while Africa’s relative share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) declined. This went together with lacklustre growth and low human development levels. In 2005, the G8 countries announced that they would increase aid to Africa by some $25 billion per annum. The pledge for increasing aid seems to have triggered an extensive debate about the role of aid and other international capital flows in the development of poorer countries. This study contributes to this debate. Specifically it addresses the role of foreign direct investment and aid to growth and human development. Panel estimations are used to determine the relationships between aid, FDI and growth in the Southern Africa region from 1990 to 2005. Negative relationships are found between FDI and growth while aid and growth turned out to be unrelated.

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data

The paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and changes in policy regimes. Two empirical methodologies, univariate autoregressive (AR) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest that inflation persistence was high till 1996, while it started to decline after 1997, when inflationary expectations seem to have been stabilised, and thus, monetary policy was effective at reducing inflation. Empirical findings also detect a sluggish response of inflation to changes in monetary policy. This observed delay seems to have changed little over time.

Buchanan on monetary constitutions

Buchanan’s reflections on monetary issues have been mostly neglected, despite their great interest both per se and for a deeper understanding of his general constitutional endeavour. We will thus propose a comprehensive assessment of Buchanan’s writings on this topic, focusing in particular on the different political models that have been developed to argue in favour of constitutional constraints on the governmental power to create money and on the implications that one can draw from our author’s monetary papers for the structure and the objectives of his constitutional discourse more generally.

Fiscal-monetary policy coordination and debt management: a two-stage analysis

We study interactions between two policymakers, central bank and government, in managing public debt as the result of a two-stage game. In the first stage, the institutional regime is established. This determines the equilibrium solution for the second stage, in which a differential game is played between the two policymakers. It is shown that, if the policymakers can communicate before the game is played (multiple-equilibrium), coordination problems can be solved by using the concept of correlated equilibrium.

Value at Risk and Economic Growth

The improvement of data statistics as well as the econometrician methods have facilitated the introduction the new variables and factors I the economic growth analysis. In this sense, real variables have mainly been considered in the economic growth studies, but not financial or risk management aspects. In this sense, it is interesting to analyze the relationship between economic growth and value at risk and the feed-back process. The goal of the paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and risk management and the feed-back process. We will consider economic variables, including economic growth, rule of law, human capital, fiscal policy and monetary policy, among others, in our analysis. We will analyze the theoretical relationships between these variables and risk and the effects of risk on economic growth. We will also develop an empirical analysis considering the case of 15 European Union countries.

Entry and fiscal policy effectiveness in a small open economy within a Monetary Union

In this article I develop an imperfectly competitive dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union. Here, the type of entry in the non-traded goods’ sector affects fiscal policy effectiveness. Fiscal policy effectiveness is enlarged when aggregate demand stimuli increase intra-industrial competition (case I). This is due to the counter-cyclical mark-up mechanism generated by entry. Such a mechanism is absent in the usual monopolistic competition where entry only has a sharing effect (case II).

Germany and Italy: conflicting policy paradigms towards European monetary integration?

In the literature on European monetary integration Germany and Italy are mostly strongly contrasted. However, this paper argues that there were important similarities between the policy paradigms in these two countries, in particular if a broader historical perspective is adopted. This work analyses the policy paradigms towards European monetary integration in Italy and Germany. Moreover, it contextualises these paradigms into the national institutional setting: while Germany was characterised by power sharing institutions, Italy featured power fragmentation (something which also affected the economic performance of both countries). There were significant differences between the policy paradigms of foreign policy-makers and economic policy-makers. Foreign policy makers, in both countries, under the influence of a European federalist vision, were strongly in favour of European monetary integration. These beliefs of foreign policy decision makers were crucial in charting EMU policy at history-making moments. The pro EMU policy paradigms of foreign policymakers contrasted, during most of the period covered, with the more sceptical beliefs of economic policy makers. In both countries, economic policy-makers, at different moments, had doubts whether enough “convergence” had been reached to make a more stable exchange rate system sustainable.

The Social Economics of Neoliberal Globalization

The recent period of intensive and extensive development of global economic integration, or globalization, has reached a crossroads. The regime of the neoliberal Great Capitalist Restoration is not sustainable and fundamental governance changes must be made. This paper adds perspective to the choices that must be made at this critical juncture of the global social economy by applying the master concepts of Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction and Polanyi’s Protective Response.