多招难救经济不振 美国急推TPP寻找疗伤新药

正当国际社会关注最近在美国夏威夷檀香山举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）第十九次领导人非正式会议之际,另一个组织TPP突然浮出水面。美国总统奥巴马11月13日在夏威夷宣布,美国已与其他8个国家就＂跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定＂（TPP）的纲领达成一致,并力争在明年落实。一时间,有关TPP的方方面面成为人们关注的焦点。     

改玩TPP,美国想干啥?

仅由4个小国家发起的TPP("跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定")由于有了美国的参与和全力推动而正在快速地膨胀起来。在越来越多的国家加入到TPP谈判的豪华阵容之后,奥巴马政府"未来5年出口翻番"的目标变得更加清晰。不仅如此,随着TPP的扩容,存     

改玩TPP，美国想干啥？

仅由4个小国家发起的TPP（“跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定”）由于有了美国的参与和全力推动而正在快速地膨胀起来。在越来越多的国家加入到TPP谈判的豪华阵容之后,奥巴马政府“未来5年出口翻番”的目标变得更加清晰。     

TPP成烫手山芋 “中国方案”受欢迎

<正>随着美国大选尘埃落定,海内外各方关注的焦点也从候选人对决转移到未来政策走向上来。鉴于此前跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)在美国国内遭到的大量反对和美国新当选总统特朗普对TPP的不支持态度,不少观察者认为TPP事实上已经搁浅。专家指出,TPP之所以面临今天的局面,与其标准过高、包容性不强、普惠性不够、动机不单纯等因素相关。相比之下,中国积极参与并推动的亚太自贸区(FTAAP)、区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)、"一带一路"倡议及一系列双边及多边自贸协定等"中国方案"     

TPP：美国的意图和他国的算盘

仅由4个小国家发起的TPP（《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》）由于有了美国的强力参与和全力推动而正在快速地膨胀起来。在越来越多的国家加入到TPP谈判的豪华阵容之后，奥巴马政府未来5年出口翻番的目标变得更加清晰，不仅如此，随着TPP的扩容，存续近20年的APEC（亚太经济合作组织）可能遭遇被架空的残酷结果，美国“重返亚洲”的脚步声由此变得更加地坚实。     

TPP对中国外贸与投资短期内影响不大

出处:北京大学国家发展研究院简报2011年第031期(总第959期),"对TPP影响的模拟分析"2011年11月13日,美国总统奥巴马在夏威夷APEC首脑峰会上宣布,美国已与澳大利亚、马来西亚等8国就"泛太平洋战略经济伙伴协定"(TPP)达成一致,并力争在2012年落实。随着日本宣布加入TPP谈判,TPP将成为世界最大的自贸区。TPP的主要内容包括在2015年实现各国双边进口零关税、扩大各国间政府采购、取消国内金融及服务贸易管制、     

TPP谈判与中国对策

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(简称TPP)的目标在于建立亚太区域高标准的经济一体化协定.当前谈判方包括新加坡、文莱、智利、秘鲁、美国、新西兰、澳大利亚、越南、马来西亚、墨西哥、加拿大和日本.以一个区域经济一体化协定来处理在各个方面都差异巨大的多国贸易、投资甚至国内法规标准问题,使得谈判各方不可避免地存在矛盾与冲突.如何正确、客观认识和对待TPP在亚太区域经济一体化进程中的地位和作用,是对我国战略与智慧的考验.     

跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定（TPP）分析及其政策建议

跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定（TPP）的推出是亚太区域合作进程中的一个重大事件,有可能成为建立“亚太白贸区”的现实路径,本文追溯了TPP的演变情况,梳理TPP的基本内容与特点,并在进一步分析美国推动TPP的背景及真实意图后,提出了我国当前应当采取的对策。     

美国退出前后TPP对中国的影响探究

TPP是美国亚太再平衡战略的三驾马车之一,作为遏制中国经济发展的重要环节曾对亚太地区的贸易产生过深远影响,但特朗普在当选总统后便立刻宣布美国退出TPP引起亚太地区经济形势的风云巨变。本文分析了TPP如何遏制中国经济,中国如何打破美国设下的贸易枷锁,TPP是否为中国带来了巨大的不利影响以及美国退出TPP后中国应如何抓住机遇迎接挑战提升本国在世界经济中的话语权。美国退出TPP不仅是退出一个经济合作组织,更是当今世界经济面临的逆全球化的缩影。     

亚洲一体化寻路

11月11日,野田佳彦政府正式宣布,日本将加入泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定(TPP)谈判.两天后,亚太经合组织(APEC)第19次领导人非正式会议在美国夏威夷举行.TPP是美国主张的,旨在推动亚太地区经济合作的自由贸易安排.美国将在11月10日至13日的APEC系列峰会上宣布TPP成员国目前达成的基本谈判框架.一旦日本...     

亚太自贸区法律框架构建路径研究

习近平主席在2014年APEC北京峰会上倡议“启动亚太自贸区建设”,这表明中国愿意引领和推动这项重要工作。面对“一带一路”倡议带动的中国新一轮对外开放以及亚太地区大国之间在经济一体化进程中的激烈博弈,亚太自贸区建设何去何从,是考验中国人智慧和能力的议题。如果选择TPP这一路径,等于将构建亚太自贸区的主导权拱手让给别人;如果与TPP分道扬镳另辟蹊径,会分化亚太地区,进而影响“一带一路”倡议的整体部署。一个务实的选择是以中国目前正在推动的“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(RCEP)为基础,结合中国韩国自由贸易协定建立中、日、韩自由贸易区,进而引导亚太自贸区法律制度向TPP等国际高标准靠拢,同时采取开放姿态,允许个别APEC成员暂时不加入亚太自贸区,也允许非APEC国家和地区加入亚太自贸区。     

Financial and Economic Integration's Impact on Asian Equity Markets’ Sensitivity to External Shocks

This paper investigates the spillover effects from U.S. and regional stock markets on local stock markets in the Pacific Basin region and China. We also analyze if the spillover depends on countries’ financial and economic integration. We apply a stochastic volatility model with jumps in order to separate the spillover of extreme shocks from those of normal shocks. We find that the spillovers of both normal and extreme shocks are significant for almost all Asian countries except China. We also find that the time‐variation in stock market interdependence can largely be associated with economic integration.     

Can an Asia Pacific Community,similar to the European Community,emerge?

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether the Asia Pacific region could form a union similar to the one now established in Europe. To this end, it analyses some of the major challenge faced by the US prior to its union in the 19th century and the way countries such as France and Germany contributed to the formation of the EU, despite their past animosity. The paper proposed a two tier system for the emergence of a union in the Asia Pacific region in which all countries could become part of a regional framework for regional security and free trade and some of the more advanced countries in the region could start the process of financial integration and invite other member countries to join them over time. The paper argues that in the 2st century, unlike the claim of the “currency optimum theory,” there is no need for labour mobility amongst Asian countries for the formation of a union in this region and hence Australia should not expect millions of workers from China to migrate there. The paper argues that the role of Japan and China in the process of regional integration has been underestimated, due to the claim that the former is a monoculture and the latter is too nationalistic. The paper highlights how diversity in the region could be seen as a strength in the Asia Pacific region. It also shows how the process of globalisation has already overcome differences in culture, religion and race which used to be stumbling blocks for more regional or global integration. The paper argues that a union in the Asia Pacific region would reduce “home bias” for international capital flows and hence there would be significant financial transformation of countries in this region.     

Equity market linkages in the Asia Pacific region: A comparison of the orthogonalised and generalised VAR approaches

This study provides an empirical analysis of the linkages between markets, and the efficiency with which innovations between markets are transmitted in the Asia Pacific region, using two competing methodologies. Specifically, this study compares the generalised approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis to the more traditional orthogonalised approach. The findings of this study confirm earlier studies that show the Asia Pacific region to be characterised by informationally efficient equity markets, with a number of these markets showing strong linkages. More significantly, the generalised vector autoregression (VAR) approach is shown to give more realistic results, particularly for those markets with the closest geographical and economic links.     

从中美经济相互依存看我国高额外汇储备管理

美债危机爆发后,中国作为美国在海外最大的债券持有者仍然不得不继续增持美债,一方面是由于人民币汇率长期与美元挂钩,国际贸易和金融交易主要以美元结算以及我国出口导向型经济增长方式短期内无法改变均导致外汇储备被动积累,另一方面更是因为一旦我国大规模减持美元资产,将引起全球外汇市场对美元的恐慌性抛售,并最终危及我国在美金融资产安全。美债危机表明我国经济对美国高度依赖,并凸显了经济增长方式转变以及对高额外汇储备有效管理的重要性与紧迫性。     

Disclosure Practices of Foreign Companies Interacting with U.S. Markets

We analyze the disclosure practices of companies as a function of their interaction with U.S. markets for a group of 794 firms from 24 countries in the Asia‐Pacific and Europe. Our analysis uses the Transparency and Disclosure scores developed recently by Standard & Poor's. These scores rate the disclosure of companies from around the world using U.S. disclosure practices as an implicit benchmark. Results show a positive association between these disclosure scores and a variety of market interaction measures, including U.S. listing, U.S. investment flows, exports to, and operations in the United States. Trade with the United States at the country level, however, has an insignificant relationship with the disclosure scores. Our empirical analysis controls for the previously documented association between disclosure and firm size, performance, and country legal origin. Our results are broadly consistent with the hypothesis that cross‐border economic interactions are associated with similarities in disclosure and governance practices.     

On Consumer Credit Outcomes in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region

The ease in mobility of people across the U.S.-Mexico border region provides a natural setting for analyzing the role of economic interdependency on consumer credit outcomes. Since the U.S. and Mexican economies are not entirely synchronized and have different growth rates, the growing Mexican border economy is likely to increase the consumption of U.S. goods and services in the region, and provide additional job opportunities to the U.S. border residents. Thus, the effect of being located at the border (‘border effect’) might reduce default and bankruptcy in the U.S. However, if both economies are nearly perfectly correlated, then the ‘border effect’ is likely to be insignificant. Our results are consistent with the border effect lowering the rate of bankruptcies and mortgage defaults in the U.S. counties that share a border with Mexico. An increase in the level of economic interdependency, as measured by the differential economic growth between Mexican municipalities and their sister U.S. county, decreases the bankruptcy rates in the U.S. border region. Overall, this research helps understand credit risk issues in the U.S.-Mexico border region.     

Financial Markets and Economic Growth

The current economic problems in Southeast Asia can be attributed not to too much reliance on financial markets, but to too little . Like the U.S. economy a century ago, the emerging Asian economies do not have welldeveloped capital markets and so remain heavily dependent on their banking systems to finance growth.
For all its benefits, banking is "not only basically 19th-century technology, but disaster-prone technology." The extreme maturity (and, in some cases, currency) mismatch on banks' balance sheets plus the first-come, first-served nature of the deposit obligations mean that banks are inherently vulnerable to massive runs by depositors—and that their economies are subjected to periodic credit crunches. And, as the author says, "in the summer of 1997 a banking-driven disaster struck in East Asia, just as it had struck so many times before in U.S. history."
In this century, In this century, the U.S. economy has steadily reduced its dependence on banks by developing "dispersed and decentralized" financial markets. In so doing, it has increased the efficiency of the U.S. capital allocation process and reduced its susceptibility to the credit crunches that have occurred throughout U.S. history. By contrast, Japan has not reduced its economy's dependence on banks, and its efforts to deal with its banking problems have served only to destabilize itself as well as its neighbors. Developing countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere are urged not to follow the Japanese example, but to take measures aimed at developing financial markets and institutions that will either substitute for or complement bank products and services.     

APX：中国企业进入澳洲资本市场的新通道

2008年,在全球金融风暴肆虐之时,宝泽金融集团（AIMS Financial Group）收购了Australia Pacific Exchange,并将其更名为Asia PacificStockExchange（亚太证券交易所）,简称“APX（亚太证交所）”。今年年底,亚太证交所将推出第一批上市公司,并为澳洲及其他亚洲企业在该交易所上市提供便捷的交易平台。亚太证交所的优势何在？中国企业通过这个交易平台可以得到哪些国家、地区交易所所没有的便利服务？     

中国与TPP国家关税减让的宏观经济效应：基于GTAP模型的分析

采用GTAP模型,模拟分析中国与TPP国家关税减让合作的宏观经济效应.结果显示:中国与TPP国家双边关税减让会强化双边的贸易联系,其中,制造业双边关税壁垒的取消比农业双边关税壁垒取消对中国及TPP国家的对外贸易影响更大;双边关税减让将提升双边的福利水平,同时也会使中国与TPP国家的贸易不平衡进一步扩大.结果表明,考虑到单边关税减让将损害减让国福利水平,采用双边关税减让以平衡双方利益是一个可行的合作途径.