Protection of trade for innovation: the roles of Northern and Southern Tariffs

Using a North–South trade model with innovation and imitation, we investigate the interaction of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and trade protection. We show that unlike a Southern tariff, a Northern tariff supplements IPR protection and is not necessarily a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. The globally optimal Northern tariff increases as IPR protection in the North or the South decreases. Global welfare may rise as Northern tariff increases, but necessarily declines as Southern tariff increases. This suggests that pushing for freer trade in the South is more urgent than in the North in innovation-intensive sectors where IPR protections are weak in both regions.     

Do trade agreements increase Vietnam's exports to RCEP markets?

The paper reviews recent developments in trade relations between Vietnam and members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, and analyses the impacts on Vietnam's exports of tariff reductions in RCEP trading partners. The margin of tariff preferences is adopted as a proxy for the degree of trade liberalisation and a gravity model is used to assess the impacts of the tariff preferences under the AFTA and ASEAN+1 FTAs on Vietnam's major exports. The results show that the effects of tariff preferences differ between the types of preferences and products. The FTA tariff preferences do not exert a stimulating effect on the export of agricultural products but they have positive effects on several manufacturing exports such as garments and footwear.     

The tide that does not raise all boats: an assessment of EU preferential trade policies

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of the European Union’s trade preferences on bilateral trade flows. Using highly disaggregated 8-digit import data in a theoretically grounded gravity model framework, we define an explicit measure of preferential tariff margins and use that to estimate sector-specific elasticities. From the methodological point of view, we show that the assessment of these policies’ impacts is very sensitive to the definition of the preferential tariff margin. An important by-product of our procedures is that they can be used to obtain estimates of trade elasticities of substitution, some of the most important parameters in the international trade empirical literature. Results show that actual preferential schemes or possible future policies, such as the transatlantic trade agreement between the USA and the EU (TTIP), have a significant impact on trade volumes, with large differences across sectors.     

The impact of AFTA on intra-AFTA trade

ASEAN countries have liberalised intra-ASEAN trade over the last 20 years by establishing the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). This paper aims to examine the impact of trade liberalisation under AFTA on intra-ASEAN trade. By applying a gravity model, we find positive and significant trade creation effects from the tariff elimination for a wide range of products. In addition, the analysis reveals that the elasticity of tariff reduction on imports tends to be much larger than that on exports. Trade creation effects for the new ASEAN members are relatively small compared to those for the old members. Our results show that AFTA has been successful in promoting intra-AFTA trade, while we argue that further expansion may be achieved by increasing the use of AFTA and by reducing/removing non-tariff measures (NTMs) through such ways as improving customs procedures and harmonizing/mutually recognizing product standards.     

中美贸易摩擦实际关税加征的测算及其影响——基于细分产品数据的研究

基于中美贸易HS6位码细分产品贸易数据以及美国对华出口产品关税加征清单,本文测算了中美贸易摩擦对中国对美HS6位码细分出口产品实际关税加征幅度及其产业影响.文章结果显示,2018年、2019年中国输美产品承担的加税总金额为540.63亿美元,税率平均增加了5.22％,其中,计算机、电子元器件、家具、汽车零部件及配件等产...     

MFN Status and the Choice of Tariff Regime

The gradualist approach to trade liberalization views the uniform tariffs implied by MFN status as an important step on the path to free trade. We investigate whether a regime of uniform tariffs will be preferable to discriminatory tariffs when countries engage in non-cooperative interaction in multilateral trade. The analysis includes product differentiation and asymmetric costs. We show that with the cost asymmetry the countries will disagree on the choice of tariff regime. When the choice of import tariffs and export subsidies is made sequentially the uniform tariff regime may not be sustainable, because of an incentive to deviate to a discriminatory regime. Hence, an international body is needed to ensure compliance with tariff agreement.     

Trade liberalization,wages, and specialization in China

This paper studies the evolution of regional specialization in China in response to trade liberalization. Using a panel of Chinese export data at the detailed commodity level over the period of 1988–2006, we show that China’s regional specialization follows a U-shaped pattern: both the interior and coastal regions diversify from 1988 to 1994 but specialize during the later reform period of 1994–2006. A theory of tariff reductions is proposed by constructing the Dornbusch–Fischer–Samuelson (1977) continuum of goods Ricardian model in a setup of two countries and three regions. The U-shaped pattern of specialization can be obtained from foreign tariff reductions followed by Chinese tariff reductions. This finding is supported by simulations, US–China trade policy review, and the pattern of China’s coast–inland wage ratio.     

The impact of tariff reductions on firm dynamics and productivity in China: Does market-oriented transition matter?

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics and productivity in the context of dramatic tariff reductions after China's accession to the WTO, and how this impact varies across regions with different marketization levels. Our results show that (a) on average, output tariff reductions tend to reduce firm entry rate and increase firm exit rate, while input tariff reductions help to increase both firm entry rate and exit rate, furthermore, regional marketization strengthens the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics; (b) trade liberalization exerts greater impact on the likelihood of exit for the least productive firms while it tends to reduce the probability of exit for the more productive firms, with regional marketization strengthening such a reallocation process of trade liberalization; (c) firm dynamics effect contributes approximately 43% of the growth of productivity, and it (especially the firm exit effect) is an important channel through which trade liberalization fosters productivity growth, and domestic market reform is found to strengthen such an impact.     

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

贸易摩擦背景下关税与货币政策反制策略研究

通过将贸易品美元定价约束、外汇噪声交易和关税反制等特征融入两国DSGE模型,文章对贸易摩擦背景下美国进口关税冲击的传导渠道以及中国的关税反制策略与货币应对政策有效性等问题进行了数值分析。研究发现,关税反制措施能够有效地对冲美国加征进口关税对中国实际产出、消费和净出口的消极影响,并有助于抑制人民币实际汇率贬值。若进一步搭配将出口品关税纳入利率调控框架的积极货币政策,对于经济扩张与保持汇率稳定都更加有效。但从长期社会福利角度看,积极货币政策对美国经济也具有明显的正向溢出作用,关税反制则会产生显著的福利转移效应,不采取任何关税与货币应对政策将使中国遭受最大的福利损失。因此,基于"打击最大化、自损最小化"原则,中国应对美国采取坚决有力的关税反击,同时保持货币政策相对中性、克制,以期实现"以战促和"的战略目标。     

农产品关税政策的内生性检验——基于国际数据的分析

关税等贸易干预政策普遍存在于各个国家的对外贸易政策之中,传统的自由贸易理论无法合理解释现实中的贸易扭曲现象,关税的决定问题得到广泛关注。关税政策具有内生性意味着关税由诸多因素影响而形成,是多方博弈的结果。这一判断需要通过实证研究得以验证,对农产品关税政策的内生性进行检验具有理论价值和实际意义。本研究基于国际视角对农产品关税政策的决定性问题进行实证研究,建立农产品进口和关税联立方程组,探讨各国(地区)农产品关税政策是否具有内生性并分析影响关税政策制定的主要因素。研究揭示出各国(地区)农产品关税内生性的一般规律,并为WTO谈判所处的困境提供了较为合理的解释,即一国在制定关税政策时会考虑诸多因素,多边谈判是各国利益角逐和博弈的过程。因此,应充分发挥WTO成员的利益协调机制,加强国家利益集团的作用。同时,充分估计到WTO农业谈判的艰巨性,不断加强我国参与农业谈判的能力建设。     

Measuring trade creation effects of free trade agreements: Evidence from wine trade in East Asia

East Asia has experienced an unprecedented expansion in its wine market over the past two decades. This paper examines the extent to which import tariff reductions through bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have contributed to an increase in wine imports to Japan, China, and South Korea. Our empirical method involves estimating an augmented version of the gravity equation by the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) technique. Analyzing a panel dataset for 1990–2016 covering 27 exporters, we find that overall a 1 percentage point reduction in tariff among FTA member countries is associated with an increase in the wine import volumes by 0.042%, which is seven times higher than a similar reduction in tariff on an MFN basis. The strongest trade creation effects are founded for bottle wine. The results are robust to various specifications.     

Free trade zones,tariffs and the real exchange rate

This article examines the consequences of changes in final and intermediate good tariffs on structural adjustment, urban unemployment, and the real exchange rate in the presence of a free trade zone (FTZ) and foreign capital in the host country. The location of the FTZ and the disaggregation of the economy allows us to examine the consequences of a tariff change on regional incomes. It is shown that as a consequence of a tariff change the urban and rural incomes need not necessarily move in the same direction (hence the potential for rural and urban conflict in policy making). It is also shown that an increase in the tariff on an immediate good may result in both export promotion and an increase in welfare. Such expansion is a nonconventional result, since raising barriers to trade normally leads to a contradiction in the volume of the trade. The interconnection between the real exchange rate and intermediate good tariff is also explored in this article. It is shown that a policy of imposing tariffs on these goods may result in the appreciation of the real exchange rate.     

International R&D Rivalry with Spillovers and Tariff Policies

This paper investigates the effects of R&D spillovers on the R&D choices of foreign exporters when the importing country adopts either uniform or discriminatory alternative tariff regimes. We show that the importing country should optimally choose a uniform tariff regime. A uniform tariff regime is also advantageous for foreign exporters if the R&D spillovers are sufficiently large. A comparison of free trade with the two tariff regimes reveals that there are some situations in which both the importing country and foreign exporters are better off under free trade, which supports trade liberalization.

Anglo‐American trade costs during the first era of globalization: the contribution of a bilateral tariff series†

Previous scholarship has suggested that British trade was generally unaffected by foreign tariffs during the period from 1870 to 1913. This article focuses specifically on Anglo‐American trade, which was the largest bilateral flow of trade during the first era of globalization, and finds that tariffs were the sole intertemporal determinant of Anglo‐American trade costs. However, the determinacy of tariffs for Anglo‐American trade costs only becomes apparent when the tariff variable incorporates a measure of the bilateral American tariff toward Britain, which this article reconstructs. The article concludes by claiming that Anglo‐American trade represents a major qualification to any emerging consensus that foreign tariffs were of minor significance to the trade of late nineteenth‐century Britain.     

技术性贸易壁垒的贸易转移效应之实证分析

本文分析了欧盟的技术性标准及法规对中国出口贸易的转移作用,以出口市场份额的变动来反应市场占有率的变化,从而推断出技术性贸易壁垒的转移效应。本文使用WTO/TBT委员会的TBT STC数据库并在对该数据库整理的基础上,搜集了欧盟主要的技术性措施及涉及的产品种类加以整理,采用系统GMM对动态面板数据进行回归。结果显示,欧盟的TBT措施的实施对中国的出口贸易产生了较大的转移作用。文章还特别就中国出口至欧盟的化学品和电子电气产品对TBT措施及关税进行回归,结果发现,TBT措施对这两类产品产生较大的转移作用,而关税的影响并不显着。     

碳关税对我国外贸产生的影响及应对策略

气候大会的相继召开说明各国越来越重视气候变化,发展低碳经济已经成为世界共识。发达国家提出碳关税的概念,以求减少全球二氧化碳排放,引起了以中国为首的发展中国家强烈的反对。主要介绍碳关税的含义、由来以及目前实施的现状,分析征收碳关税将对我国外贸产生的巨大影响,最后从国内和国际两个层面提出应对碳关税的措施。     

Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation

The roles of firm heterogeneity and product differentiation in the manufacturing industries have attracted research attention on the “new new trade theory.” The agricultural sectors also produce new goods using product differentiation through breeding, branding, and other activities. In reaction to globalization, the Japanese Government has sought to revitalize its agri-food sectors by promoting exports of differentiated products. This computable general equilibrium study examines the relevance of this policy, focusing on five agri-food sectors other than grains. We simulate Japan’s three trade deals and a policy intervention that cuts fixed export costs to promote exports. We show that only a few agri-food sectors can increase exports and maintain domestic output under freer trade, and that export promotion would markedly increase entrants into export markets and increase exports of the vegetables and fruit, and processed food product sectors. In these trade deals, tariff and nontariff barriers have different impacts on trade, output, and farm/firm entry.     

Trade creation,trade diversion,and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union

This paper presents an industry-level analysis of trade flows in order to estimate the trade effects of Turkey’s customs union with the European Community (EC). The paper is able to distinguish between trade creation and trade diversion by employing tariff data on each good to measure the impact of not only the tariff level but also the difference between tariffs applied to imports from Europe and the most-favored nation tariffs applied to imports from other non-preferential trading partners. The paper estimates the general equilibrium effects of the customs union in addition to the effects of eliminating tariffs on the EC’s exports to Turkey. It concludes that the customs union has generated more than twice as much trade creation as trade diversion but that the overall impact of the customs union has been relatively small.     

Preference erosion and the developing countries exports to the EU: a dynamic panel gravity approach

The erosion of preferences due to multilateral tariff reductions is a long-standing concern for many developing countries. This paper focuses on the erosion of the preferences granted by the EU in the rice industry. Since 2004 there has been a sharp decrease in border protection for the EU rice industry. Because the EU grants trade preferences to a considerable number of rice exporting developing countries, the reform implied preference erosion as well. By addressing the impact of preference erosion on developing countries rice exports to the EU, this paper contributes two original insights to the literature: first, by proposing a new empirical approach to compute the preference margin when tariff rate quotas are in force which is based on the assumption of the existence of fixed costs and economies of scale in international trade; second, by estimating the trade elasticities of preferences by means of a dynamic panel gravity equation to deal with the issues of endogeneity of preferences and persistency in bilateral trade flows. The results show that the way preference margins are calculated matters significantly when assessing the existence and extent of their erosion and the values of trade elasticities. Finally, the estimations highlight the fact that the impact of preferences is still very strong for some of the countries concerned.