Modelling international tourism demand and volatility in small island tourism economies

Small island tourism economies (SITEs) vary in their size, land area, location, narrow resource bases, economic development, overwhelming reliance on tourism and consistent inflow of foreign direct investment for economic growth. Small island tourism economics differ in their ethnic diversity, political systems, economic and environmental vulnerability, ecological fragility and the risks facing investors. Owing to natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime and the threat of global terrorism, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to SITEs. These variations in international tourism demand to SITEs, particularly the conditional variance (or volatility) in international tourist arrivals, have not previously been analysed in the tourism research literature. An examination of the conditional volatility of international tourist arrivals is essential for policy analysis and marketing purposes. This paper models the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and the growth rate (or log‐difference) in the monthly international tourist arrivals for six SITEs, namely Barbados, Cyprus, Dominica, Fiji, Maldives and Seychelles. Diagnostic checks of the regularity conditions of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and their growth rates suggest that the estimated univariate models of trends and volatility are statistically adequate. Therefore, the estimated models are appropriate for purposes of public and private sector management of tourism. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism demand: a panel data approach

This paper estimates the coefficients of the determinants of international tourism demand for the period 1995–2014 in the USA using the gravity framework. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of tourist arrivals among 14 countries using autoregressive distributed lag methods. The results show real gross domestic product, consumer price index, real exchange rate and certain specific events have a significant impact on international tourism demand. The income elasticity suggests that tourism is non-luxury goods, and prices and real exchange rate have negative relation to tourist arrivals. We also find that tourism transport infrastructure is a significant determinant of tourist arrivals into USA. This implies that infrastructure to reinforce taste formation is important to attract more international tourists to USA. In addition, results also suggest implications for public and private tourism authorities.     

Taiwan's international tourism: a time series analysis with calendar effects and joint outlier adjustments

In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the USA between January 1971 and December 2008. Our purpose is to find events or variables that affect Taiwan's international tourism. We find that the Chinese New Year has a positive effect on tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, but negative effects for other countries. Through outlier detection, we obtain a better understanding of the effects of non‐recurring events that have impacted Taiwan's international tourism. Using transfer function model with automatic outlier detection and adjustment, we find that the exchange rate influences tourist arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainable Tourism or Sustainable Development? Financial Crisis,Ecotourism, and the 'Amazing Thailand' Campaign

Although the issues of sustainable tourism and sustainable development are receiving increasing attention from tourists, government planners and scholars, few studies have examined their overlap, tensions and complex linkages in practice. In southern Thailand, the sustainability of tourism, defined as the ongoing growth and survival of the tourism industry, has compromised the ecological sustainability of key tourism destinations sites. The recent financial crisis has forced the Thai government to sacrifice long-term sustainability for the sake of quick, and desperately needed foreign exchange. The 'Amazing Thailand' promotional campaign, which aims to attract 17 million tourists over 1998 and 1999, promises to exacerbate further the environmental degradation of tourism destinations in southern Thailand by pushing for enhanced tourist numbers. Ironically, by changing the composition of tourist arrivals (and in particular, attracting more European and North American tourists) the currency devaluations associated with the Asian financial crisis may simultaneously boost demand for nature-based tourist activities in southern Thailand while also adding stress to ecologically deteriorating destinations.     

Restoring tourist flows and regenerating city's image: the case of Belgrade

The aim of this research is to examine the effects of the post-1990 transition on the relocation of tourism and changes in the structure of tourism over the last 20 years in Belgrade. Economic and social development altered spatial relations of tourist factors and elements. Apart from the old city core, new tourist zones and directions appeared. Tourist flows and economic challenges influenced the rationalisation of doing business and relocating the hotels outside the central city municipalities. Belgrade has been acknowledged as a low-cost destination of fun and nightlife and the city's new image has attracted more foreign tourists. Both the volume of foreign tourists and their countries of origin have changed significantly over the last several years. However, there have been negligible economic effects on the city's economy, despite this increase in the number of foreign tourists. In conclusion, we examine the implications of new directions in tourism development for the future position of Belgrade as a tourist destination in a competitive European market.     

Mitigating externalities of terrorism on tourism: global evidence from police,security officers and armed service personnel

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the role of security officers, the police and armed service personnel in dampening the effect of terrorism externalities on tourist arrivals. The temporal and geographic scopes are respectively 2010–2015 and 163 countries. Four terrorism measurements are used. They include the number of incidents, injuries, fatalities and property damages. The main findings indicate that armed service personnel can effectively be used to modulate the damaging influence of all four terrorism externalities in order to achieve a positive net effect on tourist arrivals. Conversely, the corresponding moderating role of security officers and the police is not statistically significant. Moreover, violent demonstrations and homicides have a harmful effect on tourist arrivals while the number of incarcerations displays the opposite effect. Policy implications are discussed.     

The effect of LCCs operations and scheduled services deregulation on air charter business in Japan

Recent aviation deregulation is producing structural changes within leisure industries in many parts of the world. This paper reviews the development of low cost carriers (LCCs) and assesses its effects on both of domestic and international charter markets in Japan since 2007. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the effect of scheduled services deregulation on international tourism to Japanese regional areas in relation to charter services. The results suggest that in the domestic market, LCC operations have seldom impacted charter traffic due to the differences in target markets and routes. In the international market, LCCs launched scheduled services to Japan but mainly on high demand routes. The deregulation of scheduled services led to a passenger shift from charters to newly scheduled flights and a concentration of tourist arrivals in regional centres. It also led to a decline in international tourist arrivals in some remote destinations. This paper indicates a current trend in which charter business is still an important sector in aviation and leisure markets.     

Tourism demand in Hong Kong: income,prices, and visa restrictions

This paper examines the determinants of Hong Kong tourism demand for the top-three major tourist arrival countries, namely Mainland China, Taiwan, and Japan, with an error correction model. Specifically, this paper will examine the effects of relaxing the visa requirement, the launch of the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), for Mainland Chinese tourists in 2003. Empirical results show that tourists are income-elastic and consider international tourism to be a luxury good. Tourists are more sensitive to changes in the nominal exchange rate than to changes in the foreign pricing level. The positive effect of the launch of the IVS for Mainland Chinese tourists outweighs the adverse impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) on tourism demand for Hong Kong.     

Yeats's country and “Yeats Country”: conceptualizing literary spaces

The year 1991 saw Dublin named as a “European Capital of Culture”; 1991 was also the year that the Dublin Writers' Museum found a permanent home in numbers 18 and 19 Parnell Square. Currently, there are 12 other attractions in Dublin designed to draw tourists interested in Dublin's literary history. What does it mean for a nation to capitalize on its literary production? Failté Ireland, currently responsible for marketing Ireland to tourists, seeks not to create the artifice of an “authentic” Ireland, but to allow tourists to experience on a more personal level what Ireland has produced. The increasing emphasis on cultural production over cultural difference belies the extent to which contemporary tourists struggle with the issue of authenticity. As Erik Cohen shows, the desire for authenticity forms a central part of the tourist experience. Considering the tourist from this perspective, my project analyzes tourist sites related to literary figures in both Ireland and St Petersburg, Russia. Exploring this form of tourism as a model for life in general, my paper asks whether tourist attractions related to literature can work against the larger process of “spatial homogenization” endemic in the postmodern era.     

Impact of economic policy on international tourism demand: the case of Abenomics

Since the 2008 global financial crisis and resulting recession, many countries have been following unconventional monetary policies. Little information is known on how these policies may influence tourism demand. This study starts to fill this gap by investigating the impact of the Japanese economic policy known as Abenomics on South Koreans’ travel to Japan, the largest inbound market for Japan. Per capita gross domestic product, relative prices, and exchange rates are significant determinants of Japanese inbound tourism. As these variables have been influenced by Abenomics, one can infer that Abenomics is associated with a significant increase in tourist arrivals from South Korea. Findings highlight the importance of government economic policy in stimulating international tourism demand through its impact on the economy.     

Tourism in ASEAN-5: A novel panel unit-root test for shocks persistence with gradual structural breaks and common factors

This study investigates whether shocks to tourist arrivals in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand (ASEAN-5) are permanent or transitory, given the frequent and severe external shocks experienced by the tourism industry. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2019, we employ a novel panel unit-root test that controls for cross-correlations, multiple gradual structural breaks, and other nonlinearities present in the data to assess the stationarity properties of tourist arrivals. Additionally, we apply a panel unit-root test that controls for cross-correlations and allows for abrupt structural changes for robustness. The empirical findings reveal that shocks to tourist arrivals in the ASEAN-5 countries exert persistent effects. Our results demonstrate nonstationarity within the series, illuminated by our careful consideration of both gradual and abrupt structural breaks. This finding underscores the necessity for policy interventions to mitigate the impact of adverse shocks on the tourism industry.     

Young Japanese Female Tourists: An In-depth Understanding of a Market Segment

Since the launch of the government's Ten Million Program in 1986, the number of Japanese outbound tourists has steadily increased even during the post-bubble economy period. Many destination countries have recognised the importance of the young female market segment as having a rapid growth rate and high spending power. This article investigates the sociocultural background of the Gal tourist by exploring Japanese values on life and women, sex and sexuality and changing values in the younger generations. Based on the findings, this paper will discuss the significance of the Young Female Japanese tourists as a potential market in the near future, and also importance of understanding the sociocultural background of the target market segment.     

A new take on an old structure? Creative and slow tourism in Krakow (Poland)

The contemporary tourism market trends indicate an increasing need for the individualisation of tourist experience and necessitate a move away from the standardisation of tourism products, including those offered within the cities that primarily market their cultural heritage. The concept of creative tourism as a way of practising cultural tourism is a response to the changing needs and expectations of tourists. This is because it offers non-traditional uses for the cultural potential of cities. This article attempts to embed creative tourism in the overall tourist product using an example of a historic city – Krakow. The authors examine the development of tourism products in Krakow, focusing primarily on cultural and historical heritage tourism and secondarily on new forms of tourism that have emerged, such as creative tourism and slow tourism. They analyse this issue in terms of districts – traditional and new tourist areas, indicating the potential for tourism growth.     

‘Homesick tourism’: memory,identity and (be)longing

‘Homesick tourism’ commonly refers to the travel of Germans who visit their former homes in what is now Poland and other Eastern European countries, from which they were expelled in the wake of the second World War. The paper first differentiates homesick tourism from related types, with which it is often conflated, notably roots tourism, personal heritage tourism and migrant return travel. Drawing on travel reports written by German homesick tourists, the role of memory is identified as the defining criterion. It is shown that homesick tourists are characterised by a unique ‘tourist gaze’. Such clear definition and differentiation are useful in order to better understand and analyse the homesick tourism phenomenon, because homesick tourism is arguably a much wider international phenomenon, albeit unrecognised and sometimes politically contested. Much can be learnt from the German experience in this regard. As the homesick tourism phenomenon is soon going to be over, due to the passing of the survivor generation, the paper ends with the suggestion that Poland is in an ideal position to develop a genuine form of roots tourism targeted at future German tourists.     

Terrorism and tourism demand: a case study of Lebanon,Turkey and Israel

Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, this paper examines the impact of domestic and transnational terrorism on tourism demand (as measured by visitor arrivals) to Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. The distinguishing feature of this paper is that we use a dynamic framework that takes into account (i) the intensity of terrorism and (ii) the associated spillover effects. The empirical results, based on monthly data from 1995 to 2007, reveal that terrorism in one country affects visitor arrivals not only to that country but also to other countries. We find that tourists view Lebanese and Turkish tourism markets as substitutes. Terrorism in Israel, of all types (i.e. domestic or transnational) and intensities, affects visitor arrivals to Lebanon and Turkey. In overall terms, terrorism has a much larger negative impact on visitor arrivals to Lebanon.     

Service-Dominant Logic in tourism: the way to loyalty

Many tourist destinations have focused heavily on attracting a growing number of new visitors each year. However, recent changes in the tourism market have led to the need for new strategies oriented towards retaining already existing visitors. Service-Dominant Logic (S-D Logic) is a new orientation that allows greater competitive advantage by recognising the active role of tourists in the creation of their own experiences. The main purpose of this paper is therefore to develop a theoretical model based on S-D Logic in order to increase levels of tourist loyalty. An in-depth analysis of foundational premises has allowed us to identify the key aspects of this process. The proposed model was empirically tested, using a structural equation model with partial least-squares technique, on a sample of 763 tourists visiting Spanish tourism destinations. Research findings have evidenced that tourist loyalty is achieved through the development of relationship quality in the co-creation of tourist experiences. These results will help destination managers to achieve a greater competitive advantage through the development of customer-centric strategies. The relevance of this article also lies in its being one of the first attempts to develop practical measures for S-D Logic by applying them to tourism.     

The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: a panel data analysis

Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.     

Tourist experience of nature in contemporary China: a cultural divergence approach

The study of Chinese nature tourism is a relatively independent research realm which adopts a cultural perspective to study the tourist experience. Chinese tourists are regarded as being accustomed to experiencing nature through associating it with high culture such as landscape poetry and paintings, calligraphy, and so on, and the impacts of traditional popular culture are seldom addressed. Yet, for the majority of Chinese, popular culture has significant influences on their behavior. From a cultural divergence approach, this paper chooses Huangshan Mountain as a case to investigate the way common Chinese people experience nature, and it is found that cultural impacts are differentiated, since neither cultures nor tourist groups are homogeneous. Specifically, tourists can be classified into classicists and folklorists according to whether they have professional knowledge about the traditional arts. As the majority of Chinese are folklorists and are largely neglected in the research, they are the main interest of this study. High culture has a weak impact on folklorists because they lack professional knowledge to associate with nature through high culture. It is popular culture that strongly influences folklorists’ behaviors in their drawing farfetched analogies to nature and praying to nature.     

Application of cultural tourist typology in a gaming destination – Macao

The aim of the paper is to study how cultural tourist typologies apply in an urban gaming destination and how such typologies could aid in the segmentation and profiling of this niche tourist market. Results showed that there exists a certain demand for cultural tourism in Macao and there are different ways to distinguish between cultural and non-cultural tourists, as well as to identify sub-groups of cultural tourists. The three approaches used to distinguish between the two cohorts came up with different percentages of cultural tourists within the total tourist sample. Other findings showed significant differences in trip characteristics and information search behaviour between the two cohorts and among sub-groups of cultural tourists. Such information could be used for profiling purposes. The resulting profiles have implications on marketing and promotion strategies which should not focus only on tourists' primary motives but should attempt to induce or arouse their secondary interests. The methodology could be applied to other destinations hoping to develop cultural tourism.     

Crime and tourism: organizational opportunities and social marketing in LA Gang Tours

Existing investigation on tourism and crime has indicated a negative relation between these two concepts where crime appears as an influential factor in limiting tourist flows. Albeit tourists have repeatedly reported the importance of safety in their travels, this paper presents a paradoxically positive relation between tourism and present crime, where gang culture is the main attraction of the visit. This case study is focused on ‘LA Gang Tours’, a non-profit organization and its use of social marketing in the re-interpretation of an organization threat to an opportunity in Los Angeles, the ‘gang capital of the world’. For this purpose, I have applied conceptual content analysis of online data referring to this touristic attraction.