The United Nations and ethnic conflicts

The involvement of the United Nations in ethnic conflicts is relatively new, made possible only by the end of the Cold War gridlock that enveloped the Security Council. Scholars are searching this recent history for theoretical insights to guide future decision making, but the empirical evidence—examined here in Cyprus, former Yugoslavia, and Rwanda/Burundi—suggests caution before making large theoretical judgments. The evidence does suggest that to be successful in ethnic conflicts, the United Nations requires strong and consistent American leadership, a leadership which in some cases will contradict the UN's dominant culture of negotiation and compromise.     

历史话语与历史真理

历史哲学的语言学转向使对历史真理性的认识转移到“作为话语存在的历史”。历史话语涵盖历史事实与历史真实两个层面,是通往历史真理的一条途径;然而这一途径并非绝对,只有结合人自身及生活的世界。才能通向本真的历史。     

Impacts of China-US trade conflicts on the energy sector

This paper uses a multi-country input-output model to simulate the impacts of the recent China-U.S. trade war. We first examine in detail the list of products subject to additional tariffs, and then use the model to estimate the economic impacts of the trade conflict. Based on the direct and indirect impacts on the energy sector of each country, we then extend the analysis to the issue of global energy demand. Our empirical results indicate that both China and the U.S. suffer from the conflict, although the impacts on China are greater Both countries experience a reduction in energy demand and a general economic slowdown. Although certain countries may benefit from the China-U.S. trade conflict in short-run, a general negative impact on the global economic prospects can affect all. Moreover, a short-term marginal impact on the global energy market is found, but as the consequence of long-term uncertainties and indirect economic impacts, further reductions of global energy demand are expected.     

The distributional impacts of removing energy subsidies in China

The distributional impact on households is an important factor for the acceptance of energy subsidy reform. Based on energy consumption features of the Chinese households at different income levels, this paper adopts an input–output price model to analyze possible impacts of removing energy subsidies on income distribution under different scenarios. Results show that: (1) The distributional impacts of removing subsidies vary by fossil fuels. From the perspectives of combined effects, transport fuel subsidy removal and coal subsidy removal have the strongest and the weakest progressive effects respectively, while the removal of electricity subsidies has a regressive effect. Moreover, the removal of petroleum product subsidies has the greatest impact on households, followed by the removal of electricity and coal subsidies, respectively. (2) Indirect impacts of energy subsidy reform are greater than direct impacts on households. (3) Government price controls can reduce the negative impact of energy subsidy reform. Policy implications are thus summarized. Energy subsidy reform can start from the energy that has the strongest progressive effect and the minimum impact on households. The Chinese government can take certain compensatory measures to mitigate the impact of reform on poor households.     

Appraising the distributional aspects of rural development projects: A Kenya case study

Based on a case study of alternative farming systems for settlement projects in Kenya, this study demonstrates different approaches for the weighting of income changes attributable to a project. Income changes to the new farmers are first estimated and weighted according to various approaches, especially through the use of a constant-elasticity social welfare function. The substantial amount of income changes that would ensue outside the farms following the implementation of either type of settlement approach are then assessed and weighted. On balance their aggregate value was negative at low elasticity values. Finally, reversing the normal cost-benefit sequence of efficiency appraisal followed by distributional evaluation, all non-income costs and benefits are shadow-priced to give an aggregate measure which shows the superiority of one farm system over the other at any elasticity value of the social welfare function.     

Decomposition of the increase in earnings inequality in urban China: A distributional approach

This study examines changes in Chinese urban income distribution from 1987 to 1996 and 1996 to 2004 using nationwide household data and investigates the causes of these changes. The Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2007, 2009) method based on unconditional quantile regressions is used to decompose changes in income distribution and income inequality measures, such as variance and a 10:90 ratio. The decomposition results show that wage structure effects, such as a widening gender earnings gap, increases in returns to college education, and increases in earnings differentials between industries, company ownership types, and regions, have been the major contributors to the overall increases in income inequality. It was also found that at different points on the income distribution (e.g., the lower or upper half), the contributing factors that increase income inequality are different.     

Habit persistence and the marginal propensity to consume in Japan

This paper presents a simple growth model with habit-forming preferences and uses aggregate Japanese data to estimate the parameters of the resulting Euler equation. These estimates imply a very low marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income and a slow adjustment of consumption over time after a permanent shock. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (3) (2004) 316–329.     

Symmetric and asymmetric persistence of labor market shocks

Within the insider-outsider paradigm, this paper examines persistence of shocks in the labor market. We distinguish “symmetric persistence” where the extent of persistence is independent of the initial direction of the shock, and “asymmetric persistence” where beneficial and adverse shocks of equal magnitude have effects of different size. The paper offers a theoretical rationale for how the symmetry or asymmetry may depend on the extent to which the shock was anticipated in wage setting and then develops a framework in which the possibility of asymmetric persistence can be tested empirically. Using annual UK data, we obtain empirical evidence of significant asymmetry in the response of employment (and wages) to shocks. Small beneficial shocks are reflected entirely in wage increases, although sufficiently large favorable shocks also elicit increases in employment. In contrast, adverse shocks lead to reductions in both wages and employment. Evidence from Japan and West Germany provides some evidence of the presence of asymmetry, although this is less marked than in the United Kingdom. The policy implications are discussed.     

Labour force and land distributional effects of agricultural technology: A case study of coffee

Land reform frequently refers to government policies which expropriate large farms and fragment them into smaller units; however, land reform can also refer to the opposite process, that of consolidation of farms which are too small for efficient production. In the latter sense, that of land consolidation, land reform may or may not be socially desirable and prompt government intervention. Possible gains in efficiency accruing from land consolidation may not be desirable if it entails agricultural unemployment and accelerated rural-urban migration, in which case governments may try to intervene. This paper looks at land reform in the context of one crop, coffee. New techniques of coffee cultivation will increase output-labour, output-land and labour-land ratios, offering the prospect for higher coffee employment and output. However, economic and institutional barries will preclude higher output; as a result coffee employment and small coffee farms will be threatened. This paper examines the economic implications of the new coffee technology in the context of Columbia.     

Growth with or without Equity? The distributional impact of Indonesian development

This paper surveys articles that have examined and sought to explain the distributional change experienced in Indonesia during the past 30 years of rapid economic development. The literature is critically evaluated, and methodological difficulties and current data limitations are highlighted and point the way for advances in future research.     

Foreign direct investment,fiscal decentralization and land conflicts in China

Land disputes have been an important risk to social stability in China since the turn of the century. This paper uses provincial data on illegal land uses during the period 1999–2010 as a proxy for the intensity of land conflicts to investigate the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and fiscal decentralization on jurisdictional land conflicts. The results show that the FDI growth rate has a positive and significant impact on the growth rate of illegal land use when there is a high degree of fiscal decentralization. We thus provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that regional competition for FDI, as shaped by fiscal decentralization, tends to raise conflicts over land in China.     

从知识经济的历史曙光，看马克思主义的历史使命

本文探讨知识经济对社会生产关系即社会和社会形态的影响，文章认为，知识经济将为消来私有制，建立公有制奠定坚实的基础，在知识经济时代，人类社会将实现从必然王国到自由王国的飞跃。     

探秘历史文化名镇

2010年12月,国家住房和城乡建设部与国家文物局联合公布了第五批中国历史文化名镇名村,重庆荣昌县路孔镇和江津区白沙镇、巫溪县宁厂镇名列榜单。路孔古镇是一座以水兴市,以市兴镇的寨堡式古镇。东汉崖墓群、宋代摩崖石刻等自然文物,革命先驱赵宗楷、抗日英雄柳乃夫、科学家赵宗燠等人文资源,龙舟赛、缠丝拳、年猪节等市级非物质文化遗产,共同彰显了其深厚的历史文化底蕴。白沙古镇绵延数公里的历史街区,半边街、穿斗房、廊坊式风雨场无不展现出重庆老山城时期的历史风貌抗日战争时期,作为重庆人口疏散地和物质中转站,凭借其     

人民币国际化的前景

通常认为国际货币的使用具有网络性和惯性的特点,因此新的货币取代原有的国际货币需要漫长的时间。这方面经常提到的例子就是,在经济规模方面,美国于1872年超过了英国;但美元取代英镑,则是到了20世纪40年代中期     

The persistence of government expenditure shocks and the effect of monopolistic competition on the fiscal multiplier

In this paper, we demonstrate that the influence of monopolisticcompetition in the product market on an economy's impact responseto fiscal shocks depends on the persistence of these shocks.While short-lived increases in lump-sum financed governmentexpenditure have a stronger effect on labor supply if pricesare above marginal costs, the response of employment decreasesin the markup if shocks are highly persistent. However, we alsoshow that, while the impact response of labor supply to temporarygovernment expenditure shocks may be reduced by monopolisticcompetition, the fiscal multiplier is always higher if firmshave market power.