Unionization,market structure,and economic growth

This article investigates the macroeconomic effects of unionization in a Schumpeterian growth model with an endogenous product market structure and a unionized labor market. The endogeneity of the market structure and the trade unionism of the labor market interact and jointly determine the equilibrium unemployment, firm size, number of firms, economic growth, and distribution of income between workers and firms. We show that unionization governs the distribution of income between workers and firms and the unemployment rate, but it does not give rise to any growth effect on the economy. In addition, unionization discourages potential entrants and hence decreases the equilibrium number of firms. These results echo the empirical observation in the sense that unionization raises unemployment and alters the distribution of income between workers and firms, but it does not give rise to a significant, real impact on the firms’ investment and the economy‐wide growth.     

Trade Liberalization in Thailand: Income Distributional Impact and Financing Problem*

The relationship between industrial protection and income distribution has been of considerable interest among economists. Although the literature generally focuses on the returns to primary factors of production as measures of income distribution, this paper attempts to clarify the relationship in terms of poverty and income inequality. Simulation results of a general equilibrium model based on Thai data show that a move toward free trade would lead to a more equal distribution of income. However, it would also lead to a government budget deficit. The way the government chooses to finance the deficit could have important consequences for income distribution and economic growth.     

Stabilization and its Discontents: Argentina's Economic Restructuring in the 1990s

This paper assesses the Argentine stabilization and market reform strategies since 1989. We argue that Argentina may be penned in by its own success: exchange rate targeting quelled inflation but the resulting real appreciation has limited export and employment growth; microeconomic reforms raised efficiency but have threatened income distribution and hence political stability; exclusive styles of policy-making helped enact reform but have led to corruption and policy insensitivity and contributed to rising social discontent. We close by suggesting how a “second generation” of reforms could tackle these issues and spread the proceeds of reform to a wider segment of the Argentine public.     

Political Economy of Service Delivery: Monitoring Versus Contestation

Many communities suffer limited public goods provision due to civil servants (doctors, teachers, etc.) supplementing their low income with moonlighting activities. Monitors of civil servants commonly also earn low salaries from monitoring and may prefer political contestation for power and prestige. We determine an internal equilibrium for how monitors strike a balance between monitoring and political contestation, and a corner solution where an unresourceful monitor does not monitor. Multiple characteristics, including the intensity of political contestation, are accounted for. Survey data from Tanzania and Senegal are used to show the significance of poor service delivery within education and healthcare services.     

国外税收结构的收入分配效应研究新进展

目前国外关于税收结构的收入分配效应研究的新进展主要表现在三个方面。第一,税收总量不变情况下一种税收对另一种税收的替代往往存在公平和效率的权衡。一般来说,一种税收对另一种税收的替代在改善收入分配的同时往往不利于经济增长,或者加剧了收入分配但却往往有利于经济增长。第二,不同赶超经济税收结构的收入分配效应存在一些共同点也存在差异。普遍上,"形式上"累进的税收结构在实际过程中并没有改善收入分配,累进所得税因存在大量的逃税而效果有限。第三,税收结构的收入分配效应研究开始应用一些新的分析方法。Bewley模型和CGE模型已经成为了研究税收替代收入分配效应的主流方法,同时,不同的税收累进程度指标选取,收入分配的纵向与横向分解和政府税率结构决策可能受现有收入分配格局影响这三个方面都可能使得研究者重新考察现有分析框架和分析结论。     

Globalization as a Development Strategy in Latin America?

The swinging of the pendulum toward policies that enhance Latin America’s insertion into the world economy diverted attention from domestic policies that continue to be essential for growth and development broadly defined. Six domestic policy areas are identified here: increasing domestic savings, implementing countercyclical fiscal policies, mobilizing public resources, investing in education, promoting employment, and reducing income inequality. The opportunity cost of not having devoted due attention to these issues throughout the 1990s is surely enormous, and for those countries still underplaying domestic variables, the longer the delay the greater the costs. The imperative of devoting more political capital to domestic strategies of development cannot be overstated––whether international financial institutions choose to emphasize them or not.     

“未富先老”与劳动力短缺

计划生育政策的成功执行和社会经济的快速发展,中国在经济发展尚处较低水平的情况下,实现了人口转变过程,过早地迎来了人口老龄化,劳动力供给出现短缺的端倪。“先老”导致的劳动力供给下降与“未富”带来的大量劳动力需求,将可能形成比较优势的真空。这种趋势对现有的经济增长方式以及相应的就业和社会保障政策提出严峻挑战。为应对劳动力短缺的局面,保持中国经济发展的可持续性,应未雨绸缪,包括最大化开发人口红利、加大人力资本积累力度、选择可持续的养老保障模式,清除劳动力流动障碍、转变经济增长方式等。     

A conceptual framework for the growth and redistribution debate in South Africa

It is possible to identify two generic schools of thought on the emotive question of the racially skewed income and wealth distribution in South Africa. Some economists argue in favour of ‘growth through redistribution’, and postulate that redistributive policies can enhance economic growth, especially by increasing labour productivity and generating greater political stability. Others support ‘redistribution through growth’, and emphasise the efficiency losses attendant upon any meaningful redistribution of existing income and wealth. The debate between these two schools of thought can be examined and evaluated within a common analytical framework. In so doing, it appears that, although proponents of both points of view have some compelling theoretical arguments, the matter can only be settled empirically.     

The South African dream and the three stumbling blocks

Most South Africans nurture a strong hope for a better future. The South African economy, however, has considerable problems with respect to both growth and employment, which in turn reduce the scope for redistribution of the national income. This article deals with a number of stumbling blocks that the political and economic decision makers may be tripped by and which may make the South African dream nothing but a dream. These are: obstacles to growth, increasing economic and social differences, and unfavourable political development.     

中国经济如何跨越中高等收入陷阱

我国2010年人均GDP已经突破3945美元,根据世界银行对世界各经济体的最新分类标准,我国已经步入中高等收入国家行列,但与此同时我国的收入差距不断拉大。如何将收入差距控制在合理范围内,成功地跨越中高等收入陷阱是当前的紧要问题。本文通过对我国人均GDP及其基尼系数的协整检验发现,我国经济增长与收入分配之间存在一种稳定的长期均衡关系。只有合理的处理我国的收入分配差距问题才能达到经济的持续发展,从而跨越高中等收入陷阱。     

我国收入分配的基本现状、问题及政策建议

收入分配对经济增长有显著地影响,关乎到经济、社会的稳定,本文从收入分配的国家、居民、企业差距,城乡差距,行业差距和区域差距四个方面考察我国收入分配的现状,分析收入分配中存在的问题并提出政策建议。     

较富裕地区农民住房投资过度现象、原因与对策

浙江省农村居民收入在全国处于领先水平,农民的投资方向值得关注。调查发现,浙江省农村居民收入增长后,住房仍是农民的主要投资方向,且投资已经过度。导致农民住房投资过度的主要原因是城市化水平滞后于经济发展水平、农村缺少有效的投融资渠道和落后的消费与投资观念。文章针     

借鉴国外经验 扩大中等收入者比重

扩大中产阶级,国外有成功经验与失败教训。我国中等收入者正处于发育成长的关键时期,具有“财产”和“职业”的双重特性,力量小,较脆弱。其发展面临着低收入群体提升困难、强势群体“强强联合”、收入分配制度不完善、经济政治社会发展不协调等诸多问题。政府应借鉴国外经验,供给农民制度,加快税法建设,深化收入分配制度改革,统筹经济政治社会协调发展等,以扩大中等收入者比重。     

关于扩张性财政政策之收入分配效应的研究——刍议不断扩张性财政支出的归宿

基于城乡居民的资源禀赋和生产函数的差别,本文通过构建中国城乡二元结构的经济增长模型,分析了扩张性的财政投入对城乡居民收入分配的一般影响。研究认为,不断加强的财政刺激在提高城市经济增长,增加城市居民收入的同时,也扩大着中国城乡居民的收入差距。作者利用1980~2008年的有关数据,建立计量经济VAR模型进行实证分析,验证了上述结论。为了改善扩张性财政投入产生的不尽如人意的收入分配效应,据此,提出相关的政策调整建议。     

The political economy of income distribution in South Korea: The impact of the state's industrialization policies

A number of previous studies of economic growth and income distribution in South Korea, based largely on 1960s data, concluded that South Korea was an exception to Kuznets' ‘inverse U-pattern’ of income inequality. Also, it was regarded as an exception to the usual negative consequences predicted by dependency theory for an economy so dependent on foreign capital and world markets. This author presents more recent data — for the 1970s and early 1980s — in order to support his claim that the trend toward income equality that appeared in the 1960s was reversed in the 1970s. The author develops a thesis that stresses the role of the state in shaping the Korean political economy. He argues that it has been the strong South Korean developmentalist state in firm control of both domestic and foreign capital and its export-oriented industrialization policies that have been the principal determinant of the pattern of income distribution. He contests the usual explanation related to the level of economic development or external dependency per se.     

经济增长能带来共同富裕么——基于香港地区收入分配状况的研究

库兹涅茨倒U假说揭示的工业化国家(地区)收入分配差距"先上升,后下降"的倒U型运动轨迹在很多国家(地区)的发展经验中都无法得到验证,包括香港。作为亚洲四小龙之一,香港经济已保持了近半个世纪的持续快速增长,然而我国香港地区的收入分配状况不仅没有随着经济增长而获得改善,反而是不断恶化。造成香港社会贫富悬殊的原因有很多,主要包括缺少全面的社会保障体系,为追求经济增长实行不利于中低层群体的人才引进制度、工资制度和税收制度,市民教育程度底下,政治民主发育不足,特殊的产业结构以及经济过度的自由化等等。香港经验给我们带来的启示是不能片面追求经济增长,全民的共同富裕不会伴随着经济增长自动到来,改善收入分配状况,涉及到对各种国家政策、经济制度和政治制度全面改革。     

Fiscal innovation in nondemocratic regimes: Elites and the adoption of the prussian income taxes of the 1890s

The income tax is a central pillar of the modern fiscal state because of its revenue-raising capacity and administrative sophistication. Existing accounts point to interstate war and class conflict as key drivers of modern fiscal breakthroughs. In this article, we evaluate a third explanation for the origins of fiscal capacity that highlights the importance of intraelite competition for political and economic power in times of rapid industrialization. Modern forms of taxation generated a conflict between industry and agriculture over the distribution of the tax burden across sectors. The presence of electoral institutions that connected tax payments to voting rights created opportunities to overcome this sectoral divide and facilitated the formation of a political consensus for fiscal innovation. The political coalition supporting income tax adoption included higher-income industrial and agricultural elites who anticipated fiscal and electoral gains associated with the adoption of the new tax. Drawing on parliamentary debates in Prussia and additional district-level data, we document both the origins and electoral and economic consequences of the new income tax. We show that the adoption of a highly sophisticated income tax in 1891 shifted the tax burden from land to industry and diluted the political influence of the middle class. The findings clarify the coalitional dynamics leading to fiscal tax adoption in nondemocratic contexts.     

贸易自由化对我国地区收入不平等的影响:来自中国的经验证据

文章基于协整的VAR模型从实证的角度研究了我国地区收入不平等与贸易自由化之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究发现：（1）地区收入不平等、贸易自由化与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,贸易自由化和经济增长对于关注参数而言是弱外生变量;（2）贸易自由化在长期内减缓了我国地区收入不平等程度,但在短期内却导致了我国地区收入不平等程度的上升;（3）经济增长长期内趋于提高了我国地区收入不平等程度,但短期的影响方向不确定;（4）地区收入不平等是一个随机游走过程,不是一个含有结构突变的趋势平稳过程。     

REAL AND DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM PRICE LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

The effect of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in the price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.     

Exclusive Growth? Rapidly Increasing Top Incomes Amid Low National Growth in South Africa

Despite South Africa’s need for inclusive economic growth, we find that the top income percentiles continue to diverge from the rest of the income distribution. We compare household survey data and tax data (which, unlike household survey data, includes accurate data for the very rich) to investigate the patterns of income growth over the period 2003 to 2018. We find that the gap between the stagnant middle and the top end of the income distribution widened, particularly over the post-recession period. We also show that the divergence was partly driven by high returns to capital for those with top incomes.