International capital flows and convergence in the neoclassical growth model

To analyze how capital mobility affects economic growth and convergence, this paper will use the analytical solution to the neoclassical growth model with a constant saving rate, beginning with the closed-economy Solow growth model. An introduction to international capital flows will follow. In an open economy, free capital mobility assures an instantaneous convergence in interest rates that, under a perfect competence situation, implies the instantaneous convergence in income levels among homogeneous countries. Taking into account this question and to reconcile these results with empirical evidence, that is, with the gradual convergence observed, the assumption is introduced that in spite of free capital mobility, there are international credit restrictions. In this case, we will show how the rate of convergence depends on the international capital inflows received. The authors would like to thank Maria Isabel Abradelo for her help in translating this paper.     

OPTIMAL FOREIGN BORROWING REVISITED

Foreign capital has become increasingly important in financing investment and growth in developing countries. Foreign capital flows, however, can be volatile as is evident from the recent financial crises. It has also recently been noted by researchers that there is little systematic empirical evidence that foreign capital contributes to the economic growth of developing countries. In this context, this paper attempts to theoretically reevaluate the borrowing behaviour of a developing economy that relies on foreign borrowing for its capital formation. In particular, this paper investigates the implications of different lending policies of international financial institutions. It is found that no matter whether the borrowing interest rate increases with the level of foreign debt per capita or with the foreign‐capital/total‐capital ratio, the economy always moves toward the stationary state. The result holds even when the representative agent regards the interest rate given as constant. This implies that foreign borrowing does help economic growth, irrespective of lending policies of international financial institutions.     

中国经济增长动力及前景分析

中国经济在过去26年间持续快速增长,高增长的动力是什么?未来10—20年,能否继续保持这种态势?引起了国内外广泛的关注。本文通过建立中国经济增长的综合因素模型,得出如下基本结论:资本投入增加是中国经济增长最主要的源泉,包括结构升级、人力资本效率提高、制度变迁等在内的技术进步的贡献也较强,劳动投入增加的贡献相对较弱,这与中国劳动力供给相对过剩、劳动边际效率较低有关。未来16年,中国经济仍可望继续保持适度较快增长,但要达到目前的高速度,将面临投资率继续增高,能源约束加大等矛盾。大力转变经济增长方式是解决这一症结的根本途径。     

Institutional quality and skilled–unskilled wage inequality

This paper establishes two-sector general equilibrium models in the presence of unproductive activities to investigate how an improvement of the institutional quality influences the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. We find that an improvement of the institutional quality will affect the interest rate, and then the interest rate combining with the capital intensity will generate an impact on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. Specifically, both the interest rate and comparisons of the capital–labor relative distributive shares between two sectors play an important role in determining the skilled–unskilled wage gap in an economy featured with unproductive activities. The above results are robust even when we extend the basic theoretical model in several different ways.     

Does Intelligence Affect Economic Diversification?

This paper extends the growing literature on knowledge economy by investigating the effect of intelligence on economic diversification. Using a battery of estimation techniques that are robust to endogeneity, we find that human capital has positive correlations with export diversification, manufactured added value and export manufactures. This empirical evidence is based on a world sample of 170 countries for the year 2010. The findings have significant implications for the fight against the Dutch disease. In essence, investing in human capital could bring economic diversity and therefore dampen negative external shocks related to resource‐dependence. Other knowledge‐economy implications are discussed.     

中国发展知识经济的空间结构

发展知识经济可以有效解决中国所面临的诸多挑战。文章探讨了经济发展的空间结构理论、城市与现代经济的关系、中国发展知识经济的路径选择,提出中国发展知识经济的空间结构是“升岛成陆”,即以各级有条件的城市特别是大城市为主先行发展知识经济,然后带动其它地区,扩大发展知识经济的区域,从而最终像地球科学中的升岛成陆造地运动一样,实现全国发展知识经济。同时,要通过行政区划制度创新促进这一进程,要将一些大城市升格为直辖市。     

崛起与转型的政治经济学：基于中国的经验研究

当前我国滥觞于内生性能源、资源的刚性约束和外源性的政治竞争与安全压力,国际社会潜在的丛林竞争规则,大国兴衰沉浮的历史经验警示,和平崛起战略的顺利实现与否势必首先寄望于国内市场经济导向型改革与体制转型战略的成败。为增长而竞争的财政分权和晋升激励成为中国政府推动经济增长的动力源泉,它有助于增进转型初期的经济增长和资源配置。在晚近荣辱浮沉的历史湍流中,在沉淀了师从苏俄与欧美发展模式的喧嚣之后,必须注意防范现有自由资本主义发展模式的制度性痼疾。中国的体制改革和宪政转型不能是邯郸学步式的凌空虚蹈,考量东亚的国家规模、社会传统与发展共性,权衡中国历史与现实的经济、制度、文化与意识形态,运用法治规则一市场机制,培育柔性威权一善治和谐社会的国家也许是较为现实的理性选择。     

首都经济圈八大经济形态的比较与启示： 伦敦、巴黎、东京、首尔与北京

当代各国首都的经济结构一般都具有八个组成要素：服务、总部、知识、绿色、园区、临轨、临空和临港。首都经济总是先经历极化效应,然后再转向扩散效应,最终在一定区域内形成首都圈经济。本文通过可比和可获得数据的收集整理,比较了北京与伦敦、巴黎、首尔和东京四个国际性首都圈,在服务经济、总部经济、知识经济、绿色经济、园区经济、临轨经济、临空经济和临港经济等八个方面的发展变化。运用极差阈值法综合比较后发现：北京作为首都经济单体,发展具有一定实力,排名居中;但若把京津冀作为首都经济圈与之比较,则发展排名最后。目前严峻的现实是：单靠北京自身力量已经难以化解大城市病,只有实现京津冀一体化协同发展,即建立全域性的首都圈经济,才能实现首都经济结构优化升级。     

马克思虚拟资本理论与国际金融危机

马克思在考察生息资本和信用的基础上,深入论述了资本虚拟化的成因、本质及其对经济生活的影响,这对揭示当前国际金融危机的成因和实质,仍有很强的解释力。当代金融资本的贪婪性所驱动的虚拟资本过度扩张和经济泡沫的膨胀,是国际金融危机的最深刻根源。从中我们得到一些重要启示:正确认识和处理实体经济与虚拟经济的关系;金融创新要适度;对金融资本的贪婪行为要予以节制和限制。     

The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Sustaining Growth With Stability in India*

The performance of the Indian economy in recent years has attracted increasing international interest. This paper focuses on the role of fiscal and monetary policies in the evolution of the Indian economy over the years, with particular attention being given to the reforms undertaken in these policies since the early 1990s. The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies has been crucial in the sequencing of the economic reform process carried out since the early 1990s. Monetary policy aims to maintain a judicious balance between price stability and economic growth. With the opening up of the Indian economy and the spread of financial sector reforms aimed at functional autonomy, prudential strengthening, operational efficiency, and competitiveness of banks, considerations of financial stability have assumed greater importance in recent years alongside the increasing openness of the Indian economy. The biggest challenge facing the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in India is to continue the accelerated growth process while maintaining price and financial stability. Therefore, the self‐imposed rule‐based fiscal correction at both the national and subnational levels has to be consolidated and carried forward. The existence of a high level of fiscal deficit also contributes to the persistence of an interest rate differential with the rest of the world, which then also constrains progress toward full capital account convertibility. The success achieved in revenue buoyancy through tax rationalization and compliance has to be strengthened further.     

人力资本、基础研究与经济增长

本文构建了一个经济增长模型 ,将知识划分为应用技术和基础科学知识两类 ,探讨了基础研究在经济增长中的基础性地位 ,得到如下三点结论 :第一 ,经济的长远增长率和基础科学知识的长远增长率成正比 ;第二 ,决定基础科学知识长远增长率的最终变量为经济体中的人力资本存量 ;第三 ,基础科学知识的非排他性决定了政府在经济增长中可以大有作为。     

Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?

The Lucas Paradox observes that capital flows predominantly to relatively rich countries, contradicting the neoclassical prediction that it should flow to poorer capital-scarce countries. In an influential study, Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan, and Volosovych (AKV) argue that cross-country variation in institutional quality can fully explain the Paradox, contending that if institutional quality is included in regression models explaining international capital inflows, a country’s level of economic development is no longer statistically significant. We replicate AKV’s results using their cross-sectional IFS capital flow data. Motivated by the importance of conducting inference in statistically adequate models, we focus on misspecification testing of alternative functional forms of their empirical model of capital flows. We show that their resolution of the Paradox relies on inference in a misspecified model. In models that do not fail basic misspecification tests, even though institutional quality is a significant determinant of capital inflows, a country’s level of economic development also remains a significant predictor. The same conclusions are reached using an extended dataset covering more recent IFS international capital flow data, first-differenced capital stock data and additional controls.     

Accumulation of knowledge and increasing returns in neoclassical models

In the mid 1980s there was a remarkable revival of interest in growth theory. A relevant strand of new literature is characterized by the departure from the assumption of diminishing returns of capital or, more generally, of the accumulated factor. In this paper we will see how the neoclassical theorists incorporated the idea of increasing returns in the formal models of economic growth, already an important question in the sixties. The central point is that the recent recognition of the importance of this notion is not new but now depends on the vision of economic growth as driven by knowledge accumulation and no longer by capital accumulation as in the Solovian tradition. I would like to thank the referee for valuable comments and suggestions.     

关于人才资本定价问题的思考

现代经济中,人才资本决定着经济增长的速度和资本的利润率,人才在社会经济发展中的作用日益重要,人才资本的定价问题也越来越受人关注,人才资本定价的扭曲,制约了我国现代企业制度的建立和知识经济的发展。合理的人才资本定价需要一个能够在现代经济条件下正确评价人才资本贡献的理论指导。本文从人才资本的价值和使用价值的角度来思考人才资本的定价问题。     

经济制度安排、国际贸易与经济增长影响机理的经验研究

本文分析了经济制度安排和贸易流量之间的相互关系及其对该国经济增长以及影响经济增长的其他因素的影响。在九个经济制度安排变量中对一国贸易流量影响作用最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的贸易政策,对一国高技术产品出口影响最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的产权保护程度。从对影响经济增长的渠道分析发现,在所有的经济制度安排变量中,一国产权的保护程度对该国经济增长的影响作用最大;同时产权保护的程度和政府干预对技术进步和人力资本的影响最为显著。     

On the level of optimal capital import in a decentralized competitive economy

In a competitive economy, capital import will affect the distribution of income among domestic economic units. Our main aim is to determine the optimal level of capital import, given that the distribution of income among people is accounted for. In order to consider explicitly the effect of capital import on saving behavior, we shall adopt a simple, two-period life cycle growth model. It will be shown that in order to know if the government can increase everybody's long-run utility, the criterion of the golden rule is important.     

我国国际资本流动性程度和非流动性原因的度量与检验--来自中美日三国消费模式对比的经验证据

加入WTO以后,我国的国际资本流动性开始有所加强,流动方式也有所改变。文章选择中国、美国和日本的消费和收入数据,在国家之间实际利率均衡的假设下,通过国家消费模式的考察和对比,发现我国的经济运行并不满足国际资本完全流动性假说,其原因既出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场之间存在进入限制,也出于我国资本市场与国际资本市场的非完全整合。这些经验发现表明,我国经济中的名义利率、汇率和资本市场仍然处于有限管制过程中,必须通过深化国内金融体制改革和逐步实现资本市场开放等有力措施来增强我国国际资本的流动性,进而保持我国快速经济增长和提高整体资源配置效率。     

中国养老保险制度变迁的经济效应

本文针对中国目前正在进行的社会养老保险制度变迁 ,在一般均衡框架下构建了一个两期的动态生命周期模拟模型。我们从宏观经济、微观经济生产者、微观经济消费者、经济公平和转轨代价五个方面对制度变迁的经济效应进行了模拟量化分析。分析表明 ,制度变迁将使资本量和产量增加 ,资本 -产出比提高 ,利率下降 ,工资率上升 ;两类劳动者个人效用上升 ,养老金替代率上升 ,收入分配差距缩小 ;同时发生一定转轨代价。总的来看 ,此次中国养老保险制度变迁的经济效应是正面的。     

Globalisation,Reterritorialisation and the Political Economy of Tourism Development in the Middle East

A major limitation of most political economy studies of globalisation is that they view globalisation almost exclusively in terms of deterritorialisation. This essay, in contrast, emphasises how increases in the transnational mobility of people, capital and information can also result in reterritorialisation, which is the increased relevance of location and characteristics of place for global economic activity. In contrast to the erosion of the territorially based powers of nation-states often associated with deterritorialisation, the reterritorialisation of economic activity can increase the power and regulatory influence of state, societal and transnational agents who are able to exert control over territorial assets and the reterritorialisation process. The essay uses the concepts of deterritorialisation and reterritorialisation to develop a framework to analyse the changing political economy of one of the most understudied aspects of globalisation, the international tourism economy. With a focus on the development strategies of states in the Middle East and North Africa, the essay explores efforts to generate ‘experiences of place’ for tourists and territorial-based economic rewards for firms and their political consequences.     

互联网经济、制度与创新价值链* ——基于人力资本与制度发展指数的测度分析

随着互联网经济的飞速发展，信息交流更为便捷、交易成本不断下降。基于高技术含量的互联网产业体系不断演进，熨平了信息流传播的阻隔和落差。同时，基于知识体系交叉衍生出新产业、新业态，推动中国经济质量的提升与效能的增加，推动中国向全球创新价值链的高附加值阶段攀升。在互联网经济蓬勃发展的进程中，人力资本和制度的软环境因素发挥着重要的作用。高质量的人力资本储备和良性的制度环境有助于互联网经济发展，推动平台战略、产业公地和产业森林的形成和优化。本文将分析互联网经济发展的区域差异、影响因子和决定因素，通过基于人力资本弹性和制度发展指数弹性的测度和分析，阐述互联网经济发展的内生动力，探寻促进互联网经济发展的着力点和政策建议。