Die asymptotische Verteilung des Prognosefehlers bei Prognosen mit Hilfe eines dynamischen ökonometrischen Modells höherer als erster Ordnung

Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird die asymptotische Verteilung des Prognosefehlers, wie er sich im Rahmen einer dynamischen Simulation eines allgemeinen autoregressiven ökonometrischen Modells der Ordnungp (einschließlich verzögerter exogener Variabler der Ordnungq) ergibt, abgeleitet. Daran anschließend werden einige Fragestellungen, die damit in unmittelbarem Zusammenhang stehen, diskutiert: Die Frage der relativen Effizienz der Prognoseschätzung, basierend auf der unrestricted- bzw. der derived reduced form, die Verwendung der asymptotischen Verteilung des Prognosefehlers für einen predictive test des Modells. Außerdem werden asymptotische simultane Prognoseintervalle abgeleitet.

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Summary The asymptotic distribution of the forecast error in the dynamic simulation of a higher than first order linear dynamic econometric model is derived and related topics are discussed.

     

Some brief notes on the “unfinished business” of qualitative inquiry

The paper argues that there are a variety of implicit issues in qualitative inquiry that need to be addressed if the area is to develop in some normal science sense. This unfinished business is concerned with a deeper investigation of basic terms that are now simply taken for granted, such as theme and pattern. It also includes the need to develop rules which will assist in making and justifying how qualitative interpretations are made from the implicit processes of inference. Specific suggestions are made for accomplishing these issues.     

Law without justice: The dilemmas of formalization and fairness in the legalistic organization

There is growing evidence of a litigation mentality rampant in organizations, which has created a legalistic mindset in many managers. Increasingly, managerial decisions are becoming dominated by a concern for what is legally defensible at the expense of broader social considerations such as justice and fairness. The papers in this special issue explore how this legalistic mindset has created new organizational and social dilemmas, and situations of law whithout justice.     

Una luce nuova su una vecchia storia: La “scindibilitá” di Cantelli-insolera e la struttura a termine dei tassi d'interesse

Si mostra come la moderna teoria della struttura a termine dei tassi d'interesse consenta di definire diversi esempi (più o meno naturali) di leggi di capitalizzazione a tre variabili, e dunque sostanzialmente del tipo di quelle considerate da Insolera. La relativa condizione di scindibilità, già oggetto di polemica con Cantelli, appare formulabile in più di una versione, una delle quali equivale alla odierna ipotesi di equilibrio del mercato finanziario.

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Summary The modern theory of term structure of interest rates leads one, in a natural way, to consider several models of accumulation factors which depend on three variables, and can therefore be counted among those considered in this time by the Italian finance mathematician F. Insolera. The question of how to formulate the principle of consistency for such factors has been the subject of an animated debate between Insolera and F.P. Cantelli. The present paper shows that it admits more than one solution; one of the possible versions rendering the principle equivalent to the market equilibrium condition.

     

Estimation problems for rectangular distributions (or the taxi problem revisited)

The problem of estimating the unknown upper bound on the basis of a sample of sizen from a uniform or rectangular distribution on [0, ] has considerable interest. This or the analogous discrete version is variously known as the Taxi-problem or the German bomb (or Tank) problem and has a long history. The emphasis here is on estimation of through the lengths of the observed gaps or spacings which seem natural for this problem.     

Hypocrisy pay

Emotional labor—putting on an act asrequired explicitly orimplicitly in work situations-is very often psychologically, emotionally, and mentally damaging to most employees. As for soldiers in wartime who receive combat pay, it is suggested that such employees be specially compensated for their emotional labor with hypocrisy pay. Another solution is to select only those who are immune to such stress for jobs involving emotional labor—an ideal that probably cannot be achieved in all cases. Another assessment is that such special compensation is unwarranted.     

On estimating the variance of a finite population

Summary Observing that the estimator for a finite population variance as recommended byLiu [1974a, b] can sometimes become negative, we suggest a few non-negative alternative estimators and note some of their properties. UnlikeLiu we follow the conventional Bayesian approach to get another estimator with an optimal property of uniform admissibility.This paper, however, was prepared when the author worked in the Department of Economic Statistics, University of Sydney.     

RAM: A Range Adjusted Measure of Inefficiency for Use with Additive Models,and Relations to Other Models and Measures in DEA

Generalized Efficiency Measures (GEMS) for use in DEA are developed and analyzed in a context of differing models where they might be employed. The additive model of DEA is accorded a central role and developed in association with a new measure of efficiency referred to as RAM (Range Adjusted Measure). The need for separately treating input oriented and output oriented approaches to efficient measurement is eliminated because additive models effect their evaluations by maximizing distance from the efficient frontier (in ₁, or weighted ₁, measure) and thereby simultaneously maximize outputs and minimize inputs. Contacts with other models and approaches are maintained with theorems and accompanying proofs to ensure the validity of the thus identified relations. New criteria are supplied, both managerial and mathematical, for evaluating proposed measures. The concept of approximating models is used to further extend these possibilities. The focus of the paper is on the physical aspects of performance involved in technical and mix inefficiencies. However, an Appendix shows how overall, allocative and technical inefficiencies may be incorporated in additive models.     

Das maximale signifikanzniveau des Tests: “LehneH o ab,wennk untern gegebenen tests zur ablehnung führen”

Summary On one sample space there aren tests with critical regionsK ₁ and levels of significance _i ,i=1, ...,n (resp.n eventsK _i in a probability space with probabilities not greater than _i ,i=1, ...,n). In this paper we calculate the smallest upper bound of the level of significance of the test reject the hypothesis, if at leastk among the,n tests do so (resp. of the probability of the event at leastk among then events are realized). By the way, we will show, that this smallest upper bound does not change, if we replace at leastk by exactlyk.     

Multiple patterns in the dynamics of a stock market model

We study a non-linear model of the interactions between stock market prices and the level of assets owned by investment funds. The model dynamics is described, in continuous time, by a smooth vector field in the plane, which presents, under suitable hypotheses, a unique equilibrium point.Our analisis of the system flow is qualitative and focuses on detecting endogenous fluctuations of the state variables, i.e. on checking existence and number of limit cycles.We prove that several, and quite different, dynamical patterns can occur, even in cases where the system isoclines assume that most simple geometrical forms.It is shown, in particular, that the equilibrium point can undergo either a sub-critical or a super-critical Hopf-bifurcation whenever two economically meaningful exogenous parameters are made to cross a given set of critical values. Hence, in the subcritical case, as a trapping region exists, at least two limit cycles appear.Next, we give analytical examples of model-consistent vector fields which present a multiplicity of fluctuating trends, and prove the apparently surprising result that the number of limit cycles can be as large as one wants, provided a specific isocline assumes a cubic shape.Both authors are members of the Gruppo Nazionale per l'Analisi Funzionale e le sue Applicazioni-G.N.A.F.A. of the Italian Council of Researches-CN.R.The present paper refers to the activities of the National M.U.R.S.T. Group Dinamiche Non Lineari ed Applicazioni alle Scienze Economiche e Sociali.     

Who consults investment analysts?

This paper shows that the questions: Who consults investment analysts? and Who goes to the El Farol bar in Santa Fe? are similar. Thus, investors use a mixed optimal strategy. The demand for consulting services is also characterized.Received: 25 September 2002, Accepted: 26 May 2003, JEL Classification: D81, C70Jacob Paroush: The author is grateful to Yaw Nyarko, Yigal Milchtaich and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Alcune proprieta′ di monotonia generalizzata

Questo lavoro pone la monotonia generalizzata come un opportuno strumento per uno sviluppo controllato di funzioni scalari e vettoriali. E' cosi possibile caratterizzare la relazione tra su spazi vettoriali.

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Summary Some generalized monotonicity properties are analyzed both for scalar and vector functions. In particular the relation between and the class of functions, which are able to preserve it, are studied.

     

An Efficiency Comparison of European Banking Systems Operating under Different Environmental Conditions

The paper investigates the operating efficiency differences of a sample of commercial banks across 10 European countries. First, the paper analyzes the technical efficiency of each country sample following the basic Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model incorporating only banking variables. Then, a complete DEA model is introduced, incorporating environmental factors together with the banking variables of the basic model. The comparison between the two models shows that country-specific environmental conditions exercise a strong influence over the behavior of each country's banking industry.     

“Good Cause Beliefs” in an “At-Will World”? A Focused Investigation of Psychological Versus Legal Contracts

This study assesses the psychological contracts of a group of at-will employees and compares their relevant psychological contract beliefs with the terms of the controlling legal employment contract. In addition, we test specific hypotheses regarding the relationship between employers formal job security policy (employment at-will vs. good cause protection, and employee personal characteristics; equity sensitivity, organizational tenure) to 2 focal psychological contract beliefs (the employers obligation to have a good reason to discharge the employee, and the employees reciprocal obligation to have a good reason to leave his/her employer). These issues are investigated using survey data sampled from 15 diverse U.S. organizations, and independently collected information regarding organizations job security policies. The results provide evidence of a widely shared psychological contract belief that, despite explicit at-will policies, U.S. employers are highly obligated to have a good reason to discharge employees. Further, personal characteristics are more strongly related to the focal psychological contract beliefs than employer job security policies. The theoretical contribution of the study and its practical implications are discussed.     

On UMV-EStimators in survey sampling

Summary The existence of uniformly minimal variance estimators in the class of all linear unbiased estimators of the population total is discussed. Some remarks are given on the concept of necessary bestness.

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Zusammenfassung Es wird die Existenz von Schätzungen mit gleichmäßig minimaler Varianz in der Klasse aller linearen erwartungstreuen Schätzungen des Populationstotales besprochen. Einige Bemerkungen werden zum Begriffi necessary bestness gemacht.

     

A consistent and asymptotically efficient two-stage procedure to construct fixed width confidence intervals for the mean

For a normal distribution, a two-stage procedure has been proposed for constructing a fixed width confidence interval for the mean when the variance is unknown. It has all the properties ofStein's two-stage procedure, and at the same time it is asymptotically efficient. We have also discussed the non-normal case as inChow/Robbins [1965].     

Disequilibrium models due to a “learning by doing” process

Sommario Si considerino fluttuazioni e crescita in un modello neo-keynesiano in tre diverse ipotesi macroeconomiche, che danno origine a diversi modelli matematici in tempo discreto, o mappe. In particolare si analizza un modello di crescita bidimensionale, rappresentato da un endomorfismo lineare a tratti. Separando il comportamento dinamico delle pendenze di rette che escono dall'origine, dalla dinamica dei punti su tali rette, si mostra che il comportamento dinamico del modello è governato dalla dinamica di un endomorfismo unidimensionale. Ciò semplifica lo studio dei valori di biforcazione che creano rette invarianti, su cui le traiettorie sono divergenti, e consente di determinare il bacino di attrazione di regioni assorbenti che contengono i cammini di crescita, regolari o caotici.

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Fluctuations and growth in a new-keynesian model are considered in three different macroeconomic assumptions, giving rise to different mathematical models in discrete time, or maps. In particular a two-dimensional growth model represented by a piecewise linear endomorphism is analysed. Separating the dynamics of the slopes of straight lines issuing from the origin, from those of the points on these lines, it is shown that the dynamics of the model are governed by the dynamics of a one-dimensional endomorphism. This simplifies the study of the bifurcation values which create invariant lines on which the trajectories are divergent, and enable us to determine the basin of attraction of the absorbing region which includes regular or chaotic growth paths.

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This paper relates to the activities of the M.U.R.S.T. Group Dinamiche Nonlineari ed Applicazioni alle Scienze Economiche e Sociali.     

The “Iron Law of Paternalism” in Employee Grievances and Arbitration? A Comparison of Disciplinary and Nondisciplinary Cases

In the criminology literature, the iron law of paternalism suggests that women receive less serious sanctions in the judicial system. This examination of three years of grievance outcomes (n= 1216) and arbitration outcomes (n= 1146) tests this iron law in the context of organizational disciplinary and dispute resolutions. These data, across several levels of outcomes (win, lose, compromise), controlling for the severity of grievances (disciplinary/nondisciplinary) and arbitrations (termination/nontermination) provide no support for the paternalistic thesis. Moreover, we find no support for the paternalistic thesis with regard to either the incidence or length of suspensions as a function of gender.     

Reflections on the Structure and Origin of Pareto Income Distributions

The essay takes the reader on a voyage of exploration with the aim of discovering the origin of Pareto-curves. It shows with thought-experiments backed up by computer-simulation the generation of log-normal curves in detail. Extending forward this conceptual trajectory, it arrives via a quasi-Newtonian fluxion-insight – infinitessimal differential integration – at a novel mathematical concept: Pareto-curves are simply special log-normal curves where a large number of random-factors interacted and impacted at their genesis (the author called it the Kopp-effect).     

Effective participative decision making: A joint responsibility for success

Much of the current research on participative decision making focuses on the increasing need for broad-based decision-making systems, on the different outcomes associated with different forms of participation, or on the problems associated with poorly managed participative decision-making systems. This article considers the responsibilities of employees who participate in organizational decision making and the responsibilities of employers who expect to share decision-making tasks. A Bill of Responsibilities for Employees and a Bill of Responsibilities for Employers are presented. Pitfalls associated with neglecting these responsibilities are discussed.