Money demand, the Cagan model, testing rational expectations vs adaptive expectations: The case of Turkey

This paper estimates the Cagan type demand for money function for Turkish economy during the period 1986:1–1995:3 and tests whether Cagan's specification fits the Turkish data using an econometric technique assuming that forecasting errors are stationary. This paper also tests the hypothesis that monetary policy was implemented in aiming to maximize the inflation tax revenue. Finally, the Cagan model is estimated with the additional assumption of rational expectations for Turkey for the considered period. First version received: March 1998/final version received: October 1998     

The treatment of seasonality in error correction models as unobserved component: a case study for an Austrian consumption function

This paper deals with an alternative approach to treating seasonality in error correction models for consumption with a parsimonious parameterization as proposed by Harvey and Scott. We introduce an unobserved seasonal component into an error correction model for Austrian consumer expenditures on nondurables and services and compare the results with different approaches. The use of stochastic seasonal results in a definite improvement of the estimated model. First version received: October 1997/Final version received: May 2000     

An analysis of housing expenditure using semiparametric cross-section models

In this paper we model expenditure on housing for owners and renters by means of endogenous switching regression models using cross-section data. We explain the share of housing in total expenditure from family characteristics and total expenditure, where the latter is allowed to be endogenous. We apply various existing parametric and semiparametric techniques for cross-section data. Exogeneity of total expenditure is rejected for the parametric models but not for most semiparametric models. The results are compared on the basis of budget elasticities and graphs of the estimated relationship between the budget share spent on housing and the logarithm of total expenditure. First version received: November 1997 / Final version received: January 2000     

The dynamic specification of the modified pecking order theory: Its relevance to Italy

This paper proposes an empirical model for the modified pecking order theory (MPO) in which both trade-off (TO) and pecking order (PO) models are nested. The MPO model is specified as an error-correction mechanism and applied to a vast panel data-set. Unlike previously estimated financial models, it avoids a number of problems: the mis-specification of dynamics, the approximation of the target leverage using the historical mean, the constrained estimation of the free cash flow components in a unique parameter. The MPO model is particularly good at explaining “hybrid” systems (neither market-based nor bank-based) such as the Italian one, in which companies are a mixture of two types: TO-type firms with a long-term optimal debt ratio towards which they converge; PO-type firms for whom the short-term availability of internal funds for investment may interfere with the process of adjustment towards the target leverage. Finally, the MPO model enables us to separately test the individual relevance of each of the restricted (“pure”) TO and PO models: results confirm their mis-specification and clearly point towards the excellent empirical performance of the MPO model. First version received: May 2000/Final version received: September 2000     

Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis

This paper examines the effect of financial deregulation on consumption expenditure in France during the period 1970–1993. A nonlinear model for consumption which allows for liquidity constraints through a time-varying parameter dependent on a proxy for financial deregulation is estimated using nonlinear instrumental variables. It is concluded that in France financial deregulation has significantly reduced liquidity constraints faced by consumers, allowing a higher percentage of the population to smooth consumption over time. Evidence is also provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not significantly different from zero at conventional nominal levels of significance. First version received: January 1997/final version received: May 1999     

Working time, employment, and work sharing: Evidence from Sweden

We study three questions which are important for work sharing to increase employment. First, is there a negative long-run relation between working time and employment? Second, are hours per worker exogenous with respect to wages and employment? Third, can policy makers influence actual hours per worker? We formulate a theoretical model for employment, hours per worker, production, and real wages. A VAR model with cointegrating constraints is estimated by maximum likelihood using Swedish private sector data 1970:1–1990:4. We find (i) no long-run relation between hours per worker and employment, (ii) that hours per worker are endogenous with respect to the estimation of long-run parameters, and (iii) that legislated working time and hours per worker are related to each other in the long run. First version received: September 1997/final version accepted: June 1999     

The changing economic status of U.S. disabled men: Trends and their determinants, 1982–1991

We track the level of economic well-being of the population of men who began receiving Social Security Disability Insurance benefits in 1980–81 from the time just after they became beneficiaries (in 1982) to 1991. We present measures of the economic well-being of disabled individuals and their nondisabled peers as indicators of the relative economic position of these two groups. These measures also provide an intertemporal comparison of well-being and hardship as disabled persons and their nondisabled peers age and retire. We first show several economic well-being indicators for new male recipients of disability benefits in 1982 and 1991. We then compare their economic position to that of a matched group of nondisabled males with sufficient work histories to have been disability-insured. Because labor market changes over this decade have led to a relative deterioration in the position of younger and less-educated workers, we compare men with disabilities to those without disabilities and distinguish different age and educational levels within the groups. We conclude by assessing the antipoverty effectiveness of Social Security income support for both younger and older male SSDI recipients. First version received: May 1998/final version received: July 1999     

Dynamic and stochastic structures in tourism demand modeling

In this paper we consider a model for international tourism demand. The point of departure of the analysis is a utility function that is both dynamic and stochastic. In the model the stochastic component is interpreted as random changes in preferences for goods and services, while the dynamic component can be seen as either habit formation or as interdependent preferences. The resulting demand functions are estimated as a multivariate state space model, where the stochastic components enter the model as stochastic seasonal and trend components. An application is constructed for different segments of the Swedish tourism market. The results indicate the importance of including both dynamic and stochastic components in the utility function, and the importance of using disaggregate data to enable investigation of each market segment.I am grateful to two anonymous referees for useful comments. Much of the research was done while I was a visiting scholar at University of California Berkeley. The hospitality of the RIPM division is gratefully acknowledged. The research was supported by grants from the Wallander Foundation.First version received: January 2003/Final version received: February 2004     

Modeling Mexican agricultural production

Results of time series tests (including unit root and deterministic and stochastic cointegration tests) imply that a mixture of differenced and cointegrated model specifications are warranted for econometric models of Mexican agricultural supplies and input demands. Test results are sensitive to choice of functional form and the set of regressors. For example, share equations should be estimated using differenced data, but output supply and input demand equations generally should not. Generalized Leontief and quadratic functional forms are preferred over the translog. Symmetry and curvature of a restricted profit function are rejected. Short-run output supplies and input demands are generally inelastic. First version received: February 1998/Final version received: November 1998     

Estimating the public's social preference function between inflation and unemployment using survey data: The survey research center versus Gallup

Economists often use Gallup Poll data on presidential performance to analyze the interaction between politics and the state of the macroeconomy. The household survey undertaken by the Survey Research Center (SRC) of the University of Michigan provides an alternative data base. The SRC asks respondents about the government's performance specifically with respect to inflation and unemployment. We compare whether the Gallup or SRC data are the more useful for estimating the public's social preference function between inflation and unemployment for the Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton presidencies. The estimates that use Gallup Poll data are unsatisfactory because for two of the periods the coefficients of inflation and unemployment are not well estimated and for one period there is serial correlation of the residuals. The estimates using the SRC data set are satisfactory and the results are consistent with economic theory. We conclude that a researcher using survey data to estimate the public's reaction to varying rates of inflation and unemployment should prefer the SRC series when it is available. First version received: October 1995/final version received: July 1998     

Contracting out refuse collection

In this paper we seek an explanation for the reservations of local authorities towards contracting out. Although empirical evidence suggests that contracting out results in a significant cost decrease, a majority of Dutch municipalities provides for waste collection services themselves. Based on theoretical insights we model the choice between private, public, in-house, and out-house refuse collection. The models are estimated using a database comprising nearly all Dutch municipalities. We find evidence that the number of inhabitants, the transfer by central government, and interest group arguments are important explanations. Interestingly, ideology seems to play a minor role.  Compared to earlier studies we estimate more general models. Although the same qualitative results are found for parametric and semiparametric models, we find strong statistical evidence that a parametric specification is far too inflexible. Differences between the parametric and the semiparametric marginal effects are substantial. Thus, more attention is needed for the implications of model specification. First version received: November 2000/Final version received: May 2002 We thank two anonymous referees for their comments on an earlier version.     

Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of stable VAR models by means of the delta method. These covariance matrices can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions to assess the underlying estimation uncertainty. The usefulness of the formulae for empirical work is illustrated by an application to inflation and output gap data for the U.S. economy indicating the existence of a significant short-run Phillips-curve tradeoff.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: September 2003     

Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modelling wages and prices in the United Kingdom

We show that a “competing claims” model of imperfect competition can explain the movements of wages and prices in the United Kingdom, using quarterly data covering 1976–93. We argue that careful attention both to economic theory and to the interaction between dynamics and identification is crucial in the building of the model and to dynamic econometric models in general. We use a small numerical example with simulated cointegrated data to illustrate the potential pitfalls. First version received: January 1998/final version received: November 1998     

Retesting symmetry and homogeneity in a cointegrated demand system with bootstrapping: The case of meat demand in Greece

A small Almost Ideal Demand System is estimated for Greek meat consumption using the Johansen procedure in conjunction with parametric bootstrapping and Bartlett corrections. Asymptotic Wald and likelihood ratio tests broadly support the predicted number of cointegrating relationships but reject symmetry and homogeneity. Bootstrapping and Bartlett corrections give support to symmetry and homogeneity but give less support for the predicted number of cointegrating relationships.Jel classification: C32 D12First version received: September 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand

This paper develops and estimates a structural, latent variable, model for the hidden economy in New Zealand, and a separate currency-demand model. The estimated latent variable model is used to generate an historical time-series index of hidden economic activity, which is calibrated via the information from the currency-demand model. Special attention is paid to data non-stationarity, and to diagnostic testing. Over the period 1968 to 1994, the size of the hidden economy is found to vary between 6.8% and 11.3% of measured GDP. This, in turn, implies that the total tax-gap is of the order of 6.4% to 10.2% of total tax liability in that country. Of course, not all of this foregone revenue would be recoverable, as not all of the activity in the underground economy is responsive to changes in taxation or other policies. First version received: August 1997/Final version received: March 1999     

The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?

The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001     

Okun's Law Does the Austrian unemployment–GDP relationship exhibit structural breaks?

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Initial empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by one percentage point and vice versa. In this investigation we check whether this postulated relationship exhibits structural breaks by means of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods. We estimate a regression model, where the parameters are allowed to switch between different states and the switching process is Markov. As a by-product we derive an estimate of the current state within the periods considered. Using quarterly Austrian data on unemployment and real GDP from 1977 to 1995 we infer only one state, i.e. there are no structural breaks. The estimated parameters demand for an excess GDP growth rate of 4.16% to decrease unemployment by 1 percentage point. Since only one state is inferred, we conclude that the Austrian economy exhibits a stable relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. First version received: January 2000/Final version received: October 2000     

Testing for negativity in a demand system: A Bayesian approach

The paper introduces Bayesian inference into a demand model. This allows us to test for the negativity condition of the substitution matrix which is difficult to handle directly in the traditional approach. To illustrate the Bayesian inference procedures, we estimate the Rotterdam model and test the demand properties using Japanese data. The empirical results show the importance of specifically considering negativity in demand analysis. First version received: September 1997/final version received: February 1998     

Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area

This paper tests the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the aggregate Euro Area, in an unobserved components model of stochastic NAIRU and trend output featuring the Phillips equation and the Okun law as main identifying equations, with quarterly data for 1970:I-2002:III. The Phillips curve turns out to be linear and its trade-off statistically significant, while non-linearity shows up in the Okun relation. The results prove to be robust to alternative lag length structures of the model, and to alternative non-linear functional forms. The trend-cycle decompositions estimated with the model capture the main features of the Euro Area’s recent macroeconomic record.First version received: 1 September 2003 / Final version received: June 2004CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.We thank comments on earlier versions by Fabio Canova, Miguel St Aubyn, Alvaro Almeida, Pete Richardson, Kevin Ross, and two anonymous referees. We acknowledge James D. Hamilton’s help with the confidence bands. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Testing J-curve hypothesis and analysing the effect of exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade in India

This study estimates the balance of trade model similar to Rose (1991) to test the J-curve hypothesis and analyse the effect of conditional exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade in India. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1975:02 to 1996:03 and the exchange rate is measured alternatively in terms of the trade and export weighted real effective exchange rate. The model variables are tied together in a long run equilibrium relationship. The study does not find any evidence for the presence of the J-curve effect in the balance of trade. The study finds the presence of weak ARCH but strong GARCH effects in the exchange rate series. But this exchange rate volatility does not play any significant role in affecting the balance of trade in India.Jel classification: F31, F32, F40, F41I am grateful to Dr. Glenn Otto of the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia for his valuable comments and incisive suggestions which helped to improve the paper substantially. I am also gratefull to an anonymous Referee and Editor, Baldev Raj, of the Journal for giving very useful suggestions. However, I am solely responsible for any error and omission that may remain in the paper. The views expressed in the article are my personal views and not of the institution Iam associated with.First version received: October 2000/Final version received: October 2002