The Indonesian Coffee Industry

The purpose of this paper is to outline the salient features of the Indonesian coffee industry, and to examine the economics of smallholder coffee production on Sumatra and the other Outer Islands. The evidence presented demonstrates that the return to smallholder coffee production on these islands, both real and relative, has been very favourable throughout the last twenty-five years and it is suggested that significant economic rents are accruing to smallholders. The paper argues that it is the availability of these economic rents which stimulates the growth of coffee output. The conclusion is that coffee exports are a promising source of foreign exchange for Indonesia, and that in the light of the recent rise in coffee prices on world markets and suspension of ICO quotas, Indonesia should embark upon a vigorous promotion and extension campaign.     

The Indonesian national family planning program

With a change in the Indonesian government in 1965 there came a change in government policy from pronatalist to limiting the birthrate. In January 1970 the government National Family Planning Cordinating Body was established. During the initial phase of the program family planning efforts have been limited to the islands of Java and Bali where family planning services are integrated into health service clinics. By the beginning of 1975 there were some 2400 clinics on Java and Bali. Family planning acceptors increased from 53,100 in 1969 to 1.5 million in 1974. The 1st phase of the program aimed at consolidating government support, winning local formal and informal leader support, introducing services into public clinic health systems, and building a viable administrative organization. The 2nd phase of the program has quantified the goal of the program, shifted from an emphasis on new acceptors to continuing users, broadened the participation of various government and nongovernmental groups, expanded the program into the private sector, and initiated a research and development program to stimulate local problem identification and resolution. By mid-1975 over 4.7 million women, or 34% of the married women between the ages of 15 and 44, had been recruited into the program. The East Java program has consistently been the most cost effective in terms of recruiting new acceptors. In terms of cost per couple year of protection, the trend has been steadily downward over the 3 years of study in the provinces of Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, and Bali where there are programs. The program needs to develop new approaches for those individuals who are not yet acceptors. Additionally, the program must concentrate on user continuation.     

United States Demand for Indonesian Plywood 1

Indonesia's exports of plywood are the largest in the world and a leading source of foreign exchange earnings. Although the industry's growth has been rapid, several studies indicate that it has been subsidised both directly and indirectly. What are the prospects for Indonesia to offset these subsidies by raising plywood prices as its share of key import markets grows? This paper sheds light on this question by analyzing econometrically the United States' imports of Indonesian plywood from July 1979 to December 1986, using a monthly import demand model. The results suggest that Indonesia's rapid expansion into the US plywood market has been due primarily to its low plywood prices, and that attempts to raise prices relative to those of competing export regions would result in significant reductions in market share.     

The Social Welfare Impact of Indonesian Dairy Policies

The Indonesian dairy sector remains highly regulated, in spite of trade and investment policy reforms elsewhere in the economy. The regulations, aimed mainly at fostering development of local industry, include an import ratio requirement (BUSEP), import tariffs; an import licensing scheme, and restrictions on investment in milk processing The paper shows that the current policy mix has resulted in a significant increase in numbers of dairy cattle and dairy farmers, and in fresh milk and end-product output. However, this policy mix imposes costs. The analysis indicates that the economy, and in particular domestic consumers, would gain if dairy trade and investment restrictions were lessened. The gradual movement towards a more deregulated dairy sector is a necessary condition for improved efficiency and a strengthening of Indonesia's competitive position in the world dairy market.     

An Indonesian Memoir

Of all the western economists with a research interest in Indonesia, Bruce Glassburner has had arguably the longest and most sustained commitment. As he remarks in this invied contribution, his first visit in 1957 marked the beginnings of over three decades of research, teaching and consulting work in the country, spanning the difficult years before 1966 and 25 years of the New Order. Owing to this breadth of experience, he is in an unrivalled position to comment authoritatively on development over this period (Ed.).     

人口老龄化的长期经济影响：上海的挑战与对策

在全球人口老龄化趋势日益显著的背景下,生育率的迅速下降和预期寿命的延长使得上海人口正在经历快速的老龄化,这一人口年龄结构的转变也对上海经济发展产生着长期的影响。作为目前我国老龄化程度最高的城市,如何在经济迅速发展的同时迎接和应对老龄化挑战,这是上海当前需要高度重视的问题,关系到社会和谐稳定与经济可持续发展。本文将从上海...     

从三个角度看中国房价长期走势

房地产行业是整个国民经济体系中具有基础性、先导性的产业,它的健康发展能够支持和带动整个国民经济的发展。近几年来,中国房价持续走高,备受人们的关注。这些需从工程造价成本、供求关系以及外资流入的角度分析、预测与展望。     

金砖国家应急储备安排前瞻

第五次金砖国家领导人峰会正式决定设立初始规模为1000亿美元的应急储备安排(CRA),对金砖国家防范外部风险和全球金融稳定具有关键的补充意义,对中国亦具有重要的经济和战略意义。CRA要有效运作,需在内部机制和外部协调方面做充分的准备,尤其是对成员国宏观经济监测的能力建设,以真正克服东亚清迈机制中与IMF挂钩的两难问题。外部关系中,应积极探索与IMF及金砖开发银行等的协调与合作,真正实现金砖机制以南南合作带动南北合作的双赢目的。