小企业贷款的信用风险与化解策略

作为小企业间接融资的首选渠道,商业银行在其中扮演着非常重要的角色。然而小企业贷款对于商业银行而言,存在风险高、成本高、效率低、收益低的现象。文章对小企业存在的信用风险进行了分析,并提出了政策建议。     

Modelling the Performance of Irish Credit Unions, 2002 to 2010

This study undertakes a modeling based performance assessment of all Irish credit unions between 2002 and 2010, a particularly turbulent period in their history. The analysis explicitly addresses the current challenges faced by credit unions in that the modeling approach used rewards credit unions for reducing undesirable outputs (impaired loans and investments) as well as for increasing desirable outputs (loans, earning assets and members’ funds) and decreasing inputs (labour expenditure, capital expenditure and fund expenses). The main findings are: credit unions are subject to increasing returns to scale; technical regression occurred in the years after 2007; there is significant scope for an improvement in efficiency through expansion of desirable outputs and contraction of undesirable outputs and inputs; and that larger credit unions, that are better capitalised and pay a higher dividend to members are more efficient than their smaller, less capitalised, and lower dividend paying counterparts.     

基于拒绝推论的小企业信用评分模型研究

在小企业信用评分模型的构建中,因数据缺失和样本选择性偏差可能导致模型参数估计有偏,对模型的预测能力和应用会有很大影响。本文利用从万德数据库中筛选出的小企业信息资料,模拟银行信贷筛选,产生带有缺失数据的模拟信贷样本,利用Heckman二阶段模型预测新的信用评分模型,将其结果与忽略缺失数据的审查模型和基于完全信息的标准模型进行比较。结果显示,Heckman二阶段模型的表现优于直接忽略缺失样本数据的审查模型,更接近标准模型的结果。这表明拒绝推论能够有效解决信用评分建模中数据缺失导致的样本选择偏差,提高信用评分模型的有效性和预测能力。     

Credit Unions: A Theoretical and Empirical Overview

In 2009 there were over 49,330 credit unions across 98 countries with more than 184 million members and approximately $1,354 billion in assets. There is a great diversity within the credit union movement across these countries. This reflects the various economic, historic and cultural contexts within which credit unions operate. This paper traces the evolution of the credit union movement. It examines credit union objectives, and considers issues relating to efficiency, technology adoption, product diversification, merger, failure and demutualization. The regulatory environment within which credit unions operate is also explored under the themes of interest rate regulation, common bond requirements, taxation, deposit insurance and capital regulation. The overview also considers demutualization and the costs and benefits to credit unions of altering their organizational form.     

Changes in Non-Local Lending to Small Business

In this paper, I use recently collected Community Reinvestment Act loan data to examine how small business lending in local geographic areas (defined as markets) by lenders not physically located in those areas changed between 1996 and 2001. The results show that the importance of outside lending increased substantially over this period when measured in terms of the number of loans rather than the dollar volume of loans. The levels and rates of growth in out-of-market lending are more modest if the share of out-of-market lending is expressed in dollar volumes and almost insubstantial if organizations that engage in substantial credit card lending are excluded as out-of-market lenders. Using a fixed-effects model and an extensive panel data set, I find that the share of outside lending into local geographic markets is positively associated with local market concentration and the average wage of tellers in the market, consistent with the hypothesis that outside loans are to some degree substitutes for in-market loans.     

中小微企业授信模式创新思考

从近几年国内一些银行发展中小微企业贷款的实践情况看,中小微企业市场给银行带来了丰厚利润和转型机遇,是银行未来需要重点开拓的领域.学界关于中小微企业融资研究问题的文献可谓汗牛充栋,然而很多基于纯理论所提出的政策建议给人隔靴搔痒的感觉.本文以银行如何从中小微企业贷款中获益并控制风险的视角出发,借鉴西方经济发达的国家和国内先进银行管理经验,结合银行实务操作,试图探索高效开拓中小微企业信贷市场的方法和路径.     

Small Banks, Small Business, and Relationships: An Empirical Study of Lending to Small Farms

We examine small banks lending to small farms. We find that relationships, as measured by the length of tenure of farm operators, are positively related to bank lending. We also find that de novo banks have a positive tendency to lend to small farms. When existing relationships between borrowers and incumbent lenders are stronger, de novo banks have greater difficulties in lending to small farms. We further find that, even within the category of small banks, lending to small farms (as a percentage of a banks assets) tends to decrease as the bank increases in size.     

基于突变理论的农户小额信贷信用风险评价方法研究

由于农户小额信贷无需抵押和担保,对其风险的测度和控制愈发重要。本文在建立评价指标体系的基础上,应用突变级数理论和突变系统中三种常用类型,并利用归一化公式对农户信用风险进行了综合评价。最后以陕西省杨凌区农信社提供的15户典型性样本为评价对象进行了实证研究,验证了该方法的客观合理性,为评价农户信用风险提供了一种新的方法。     

银行治理、信贷配给与中小企业融资

中小企业贷款难问题是目前困扰这些企业迅速发展的重要因素,国内外对这一问题成因进行了诸多研究与分析.从我国银行治理结构特点的这一独特视角出发,结合信贷配给理论,对不同治理结构下银行信贷行为进行建模与比较分析发现,银行治理结构通过影响银行信贷选择行为,将会对信贷市场配给程度以及中小企业获得贷款的可能性产生重要影响.     

助学贷款中的团体贷款与信贷合约

针对现行助学信贷合约激励不足的问题,将"团体贷款"引入到助学信贷合约中,使得改进后的助学信贷合约的激励相容性得以提高。改进后的助学信贷合约,无论是银行还是学生,均可以接受。在几种可能的产出分布情形下,助学贷款的还贷率得到较大提高,从而论证了将"团体贷款"引入到助学信贷合约中的可行性。     

Diversification,Fee Income,and Credit Union Risk

Australian credit unions (CUs) have introduced new fee generating activities, increased transaction fees on existing products, and diversified into residential mortgages. Using DeYoung and Roland’s degree of total leverage and other risk measures we find that more diversified CUs have lower risk and return. CUs that increase the revenue share of transaction fees (matched by a lower share of personal loan interest) increase risk and reduce returns while those that increase residential lending revenues reduce both risk and returns. There is also evidence of scale related economies with risk decreasing and returns increasing with CU size.JEL classification: G21Disclaimer: The views and opinions in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of APRA.     

建立适应中小企业特征的信贷组织机构

商业银行传统信贷组织不按企业规模分部门,束缚着信贷部门支持中小企业的积极性,不利于专业化管理。近年来,各商业银行纷纷设立信贷专营机构进行信贷组织管理体制改革,一定程度上提升了服务中小企业的能力,但目前无论理论上还是实践中认识差异较大。作者认为,支持中小企业发展的信贷机构既要体现中小企业融资特点,还要体现组织机构设置原则,更要同商业银行组织机构改革态势保持高度一致,而将流程银行思想引入中小企业信贷组织机构是必然选择。     

Can banks monitor small business borrowers effectively using hard information?

We investigate whether banks rely on hard information to monitor small business borrowers and to what extent hard information is credible. Using Japanese firm-level data, we show that banks reduce the amount of lending to defaulting firms if the firms are financially distressed and suffer operating losses. In contrast, banks do not significantly reduce the amount of lending to defaulting firms with low levels of leverage and high profitability. This implies that banks mitigate type II errors if they receive default signals using the hard information of informationally opaque small businesses.     

偏低定价、贷款放宽与房地产价格——基于PW模型的中美比较及启示

Pavlov and Wachter(2004,2006)从市场竞争的角度发现住房信贷偏低定价是推动信贷过度扩张从而导致房地产价格膨胀的一个重要原因。本文认为流动性过剩将加剧这种现象,同时贷款放宽也是推动信贷过度扩张导致房地产价格上涨的重要原因。近年来在流动性过剩下中美两国住房信贷市场都出现了偏低定价和贷款放宽现象,其表现和产生的原因具有共性和个性。在中美比较的基础上,本文提出了对我国的几点启示。     

浅析农户个人信贷业务拓展中的障碍和对策建议

中国经济长期以来呈现出“重城轻乡”的二元制结构特点,在这种经济结构背景下的城乡个人信贷政策却没有实行差别化,这是造成我国农村个人信贷业务难以推进的主要障碍。目前银行在针对个人办理贷款时都有一些硬性条件,包括面临风险时贷款利率会适当上浮,个人贷款期限以年为单位,要求借款人一定时间内支出与收入比不得超过50％,这些政策和限制性条件对农户贷款并不适用,在为农户办理贷款时应适用新的信贷政策,使其更贴近农户的实际信贷需求。     

Scale Economies in Credit Unions: Accounting for Subsidies Is Important

In 1998, the Credit Union Services Corporation Australia Limited (CUSCAL) recommended that Australian credit unions with assets below $5 million should consider merging with larger credit unions. This industry position is at odds with empirical studies, which find little evidence of increasing returns to scale in credit unions. However, an important bias in previous studies of scale economies in credit unions has been the omission of credit union subsidies. This paper shows that the failure to account for subsidies biases the results toward finding diseconomies of scale. After correcting for the subsidy bias, there is very strong evidence of increasing returns to scale in a sample of New South Wales credit unions, supporting the industry recommendation.     

大数定律与小微企业授信模式研究

贷款难一直是小微企业面临的最大问题。商业银行从自身盈利角度出发,面对日渐突出的金融脱媒现象,经营思路亟需转型,开发小微企业贷款业务以开辟新的业务增长点。本文基于大数定律,从商业银行角度出发,分析了小微企业授信模式。授信模式的选择和贷款利率确定是本文研究的两个重要方面,风险管拄贯穿整个授信过程。     

Small-Business Lending and Profit Efficiency in Commercial Banking

We use nonparametric linear programming methods to calculate the directional distance function and the profit function for a random sample of banks from 1994 to 1999. The estimates imply that the gain in small-business lending from reducing technical inefficiency is minor compared to the gain possible from eliminating allocative inefficiency. Actual small-business lending early in the sample period is less than optimal, but the misallocation is confined to small banks. As a percentage of assets, small-business lending is larger for the most efficient banks.     

中小企业信贷风险分析与防范对策研究

在我国长期以间接融资为主的融资机制下,银行信贷成为中小企业融资的重要渠道。然而由于市场竞争、信息不对称、担保体系、商业银行信贷管理水平和政策环境等方面的原因,使得中小企业信贷往往面临着比较大的风险。在后金融危机时代如何发挥充分信贷的重要作用并做好风险防范,支持中小企业发展具有非常重要的现实作用和意义。