Multifrequency jump-diffusions: An equilibrium approach

This paper proposes that equilibrium valuation is a powerful method to generate endogenous jumps in asset prices. We specify an economy with continuous consumption and dividend paths, in which endogenous price jumps originate from the market impact of regime-switches in the drifts and volatilities of fundamentals. We parsimoniously incorporate regimes of heterogeneous durations and verify that the persistence of a shock endogenously increases the magnitude of the induced price jump. As the number of frequencies driving fundamentals goes to infinity, the price process converges to a novel stochastic process, which we call a multifractal jump-diffusion.     

Defining efficient policies in a general equilibrium model: a multi-objective approach

Macroeconomic policy makers are typically concerned with several indicators of economic performance. We thus propose to tackle the design of macroeconomic policy using Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. More specifically, we employ Multi-objective Programming (MP) to seek so-called efficient policies. The MP approach is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We chose use of a CGE model since it has the dual advantage of being consistent with standard economic theory while allowing one to measure the effect(s) of a specific policy with real data. Applying the proposed methodology to Spain (via the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix) we first quantified the trade-offs between two specific policy objectives: growth and inflation, when designing fiscal policy. We then constructed a frontier of efficient policies involving real growth and inflation. In doing so, we found that policy in 1995 Spain displayed some degree of inefficiency with respect to these two policy objectives. We then offer two sets of policy recommendations that, ostensibly, could have helped Spain at the time. The first deals with efficiency independent of the importance given to both growth and inflation by policy makers (we label this set: general policy recommendations). A second set depends on which policy objective is seen as more important by policy makers: increasing growth or controlling inflation (we label this one: objective-specific recommendations).     

Existence of equilibrium in a differential game of spatial competition with advertising

We investigate a differential duopoly game with horizontal product differentiation and advertising efforts aimed at increasing market demand, to show that the standard approach to spatial competition fails to produce a pure-strategy price equilibrium in a dynamic game framework. This holds independently of the shape of the transportation cost function. Then, we introduce an endogenous cost associated with the choice of location and characterise the feedback equilibrium, identifying the necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of the pure-strategy (stationary) price equilibrium. The same condition is singled out for the static game where consumer population is constant. Finally, we show that the static game cannot be viewed as a special case of the dynamic one.     

Testable implications of general equilibrium models: An integer programming approach

Focusing on the testable revealed preference restrictions on the equilibrium manifold, we show that the rationalizability problem is NP-complete. Subsequently, we present a mixed integer programming (MIP) approach to characterize the testable implications of general equilibrium models. Attractively, this MIP approach naturally applies to settings with any number of observations and any number of agents. This is in contrast with existing approaches in the literature. We also demonstrate the versatility of our MIP approach in terms of dealing with alternative types of assignable information. Finally, we illustrate our methodology on a data set drawn from the US economy. In this application, an important focus is on the discriminatory power of the rationalizability tests under study.     

National attachments,economic competition,and social exclusion of non-ethnic migrants in Israel: a mixed-methods approach

This paper provides a specific example of how mixed-methods can be used as a useful research design in the study of ethnic exclusionism. Specifically, we investigate the ways in which conceptions of national identity and nationalism and perceptions of socio-economic threat explain exclusionary attitudes of the majority group (Jews) towards labor migrants in Israel. We show how the implementation of the mixed-method approach to the study of discriminatory attitudes towards migrants not only provided evidence for convergence, but also improved our understanding of the complex nature of ethnic relations in modern societies.     

Assessing technology portfolios for contract competition: An analytic hierarchy process approach

Firms engaged in high-technology government and commercial contracts allocate discretionary funds to R&D projects to enhance the quality of prototype design. We propose a method for targeting enhancements which appeal to clients while also providing technological advantage vis-a-vis other firms competing for the same contracts. R&D projects can be scored on their contribution to contract selection criteria and compared in the context of a technology portfolio, a matrix that reveals the relative merits of the engineering proposals and potential technology niches.

Knowledge on clients, competitors and priorities regarding selection criteria is often judgmental and fragmented within the firm. Meaningful translation of various experts' comparisons into a hierarchical, internally consistent scoring scheme is achieved with Saaty's analytic hierarchy process. Carefully specified technical benchmarks, used to scale quality and cost data, are also instrumental for soliciting judgmental knowledge. Implementation of the technology portfolio assessment is illustrated with a practical example drawn from defense contracting.     

Potential impacts of the devaluation of Nepalese currency: A general equilibrium approach

This paper measures the potential impacts of the devaluation of domestic currency of the small, developing, landlocked and transition South Asian economy of Nepal, which is lagging behind in policy studies. The impacts on growth, distribution, price changes in factor and product markets, and on selected macroeconomic features are measured. Using a computable general equilibrium model applied to social accounting matrix data, we conclude that devaluation is expansionary but mostly benefits the rich, thus leading to a more uneven income distribution. In general, the expansion of economic activities occurs in agricultural and industrial sectors, whereas services activities contract. However, when the rate of devaluation is high, the agricultural sector also starts contracting. To this typical developing economy, devaluation causes an improvement in saving investment and export/import ratios, whereas the budget deficit widens.     

Spatial Cournot competition and economic welfare: a note

We investigated welfare implications in location-quantity models in a symmetric linear city. We found that when firms are not agglomerated in equilibrium, increasing the distance between firms raises (reduces) producer surplus and social welfare (consumer surplus). Moreover, central agglomeration is always optimal for consumers among symmetric locations, but not necessarily for producers. Central agglomeration can be inefficient even if it is the unique equilibrium outcome. In short, the firms are more likely to agglomerate or locate closer than what welfare maximizers would dictate, whereas they locate farther apart than what consumer surplus maximizers would recommend.     

Trading in exhaustible resources in the presence of conversion costs a general equilibrium approach

We survey the literature on the general equilibrium approach to trade in exhaustible resources and present a model in which conversion costs are incorporated and in which the usual balance of payments condition is relaxed. It is found that in many cases the problem of dynamic inconsistency will arise.     

Inter-jurisdiction subsidy competition for a new production plant: What is the central government optimal policy?

This paper models inter-jurisdiction competition for foreign direct investment and optimal government policy intervention to protect the national interest. The inter-jurisdiction competition for a multinational has the potential of favouring the multinational and of becoming detrimental for the host country. The central government wants to limit such competition but it cannot tax-discriminate between different types of multinationals. We find that the central government would use tax policy to create asymmetries even when the underlying structure is symmetrical. This offers a novel explanation for the creation of ‘Special Economic Zones’ in many countries, which are well known to be aimed at the attraction of foreign direct investment.     

Alternative transportation modes in an urban land use model: A general equilibrium approach

This paper presents and analyzes a general equilibrium transportation demand model. The model was applied to hypothetical cities with populations of 1 and 2 million. Data and coefficients for those cities were obtained from existing metropolitan areas of equivalent sizes. A subway system is found to be uneconomical in the hypothetical city with one million population and with an average population density of 4400 per square mile. However, it is found to be economical and desirable for the hypothetical city with two million population and with an average density of 6900 per square mile.     

An approach to discovering new technology opportunities: Keyword-based patent map approach

This paper proposes an approach for creating and utilizing keyword-based patent maps for use in new technology creation activity. The proposed approach comprises the following sub-modules. First, text mining is used to transform patent documents into structured data to identify keyword vectors. Second, principal component analysis is employed to reduce the numbers of keyword vectors to make suitable for use on a two-dimensional map. Third, patent ‘vacancies’, defined as blank areas in the map that are sparse in patent density but large in size, are identified. The validity of the vacancy is then tested against such criteria as technological criticality and technological trends. If a vacancy is judged as meaningful, its technological features are investigated in detail to identify the potential for new technology creation. The procedure of the proposed approach is described in detail by employing an illustrative patent database and is implemented into an expert system for new technology creation.     

Taking a new contour: A novel approach to panel unit root tests

The paper introduces a novel approach to testing for unit roots in panels, which takes a new contour that is drawn along the line given by the equi-squared-sum instead of the traditional one given by the equi-sample-size. We show in the paper that the distributions of the unit root tests are asymptotically normal along the new contour under both the null and the local-to-unity alternatives. Subsequently, we demonstrate that this startling finding may be exploited constructively to invent tools and methodologies for effective inferences in panel unit root models. Simulations show that our approach works quite well in finite samples.     

Achieving a new equilibrium? The stability of cooperative employer–union relationships

The current popularity of ‘partnership’ in workplace industrial relations raises the question of the durability of such arrangements. This article investigates the stability of cooperative employer–union relationships by means of case studies. It analyses perceptions of the experience of negotiation and consultation. Continuing net benefits are reported both by managers and by union representatives in workplaces where cooperative relationships are robust. The benefits come primarily from the informal consultative processes and levels of trust that are engendered. Nonetheless, parties to the relationship, however robust they were, faced substantial challenges to their efforts to diffuse and sustain cooperative working. It is concluded that cooperative relationships are likely to be stable where employers wish to maintain an independent employee voice, especially where workplace union density remains relatively high.     

The housing bubble and a new approach to accounting for housing in a CPI

Over the course of the recent house price bubble in the United States, the price of homes rose rapidly from 1999 Q4 to 2005 Q4 (11.3% annually as measured by the Case-Shiller index, and 8.4% annually as measured by the Federal Housing Financing Agency) but slowly as measured by owner equivalent rents (3.4%), so measured core inflation remained relatively docile during this period, since only rents are used to measure inflation for housing services in the United States. Over the last several decades, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has experimented with both rental equivalence and user cost approaches for accounting for owner occupied housing (OOH) services in the CPI. We explain the basics of these approaches, and outline the BLS experiences with using them. This assessment leads us to conclude that the time has come to try a new approach: the opportunity cost approach. We argue this approach has advantages over both the conventional rental equivalence and user cost approaches, though it embeds components of the measures for both those approaches and builds solidly on the research of Verbrugge and others at the BLS. Also, we take up empirical issues that must be faced regardless of which of the approaches discussed is adopted. We explain how the repeat-sales and various hedonic regression methods can be placed in a common framework, thereby facilitating understanding of the properties of and the tradeoffs between the methods. We also consider measurement complications that arise because the land and structure components of properties depreciate at different rates.     

Tackling selection bias in sentencing data analysis: a new approach based on a scale of severity

For reasons of methodological convenience statistical models analysing judicial decisions tend to focus on the duration of custodial sentences. These types of sentences are however quite rare (7% of the total in England and Wales), which generates a serious problem of selection bias. Typical adjustments employed in the literature, such as Tobit models, are based on questionable assumptions and are incapable to discriminate between different types of non-custodial sentences (such as discharges, fines, community orders, or suspended sentences). Here we implement an original approach to model custodial and non-custodial sentence outcomes simultaneously avoiding problems of selection bias while making the most of the information recorded for each of them. This is achieved by employing Pina-Sánchez et al. (Br J Criminol 59:979–1001, 2019) scale of sentence severity as the outcome variable of a Bayesian regression model. A sample of 7242 theft offences sentenced in the Crown Court is used to further illustrate: (a) the pervasiveness of selection bias in studies restricted to custodial sentences, which leads us to question the external validity of previous studies in the literature limited to custodial sentence length; and (b) the inadequacy of Tobit models and similar methods used in the literature to adjust for such bias.     

Using neural network to forecast stock index option price: a new hybrid GARCH approach

This study aims to apply a new hybrid approach to estimate volatility in neural network option-pricing model. The analytical results also indicate that the new hybrid method can be used to forecast the prices of derivative securities. Owing to combines the grey forecasting model with the GARCH to improve the estimated ability, the empirical evidence shows that the new hybrid GARCH model outperforms the other approaches in the neural network option-pricing model.     

Measuring growth: Is the new US approach better?

In this article, Alistair Barr looks at the new approach adopted by the United States to measure growth. He argues that chain-weighting is not to blame for the downward revision to estimates of growth during the current recovery. However, it has highlighted the sensitivity of estimates of real growth to different methodologies and this has implications for cross-country comparisons.