电力短缺、短期措施与长期战略

1 999年中国电力过剩 1 0 % ,而 2 0 0 4年估计将短缺 7%。电力规划应该根据GDP与电力需求间的长期关系制定 ,以避免大量过剩或短缺 ,并尽可能减少冲击。本文建议建立有效的电力短缺早期预警系统 ,制定全国的系统规划。规划要着眼于电力需求与GDP增长间的长期关系 ,并考虑“电力先行”的增长战略     

杭钢积极应对电力缺口

杭钢长期以来十分重视节电工作，在2004年电力供应短缺的严峻形势下，变压力为动力，精心组织，强化管理，积极应对电力缺口，把避峰让电带来的影响降到最低程度，确保了生产经营目标的全面完成。杭钢的主要做法是：     

我国电力短缺根源研究

我国电力短缺主要源于供给基础不够坚实,需求仅是诱因、表象,是供给不足和供给不能适应需求变化调整所导致的结果,其根源是电力市场行政性垄断和由此造成的扭曲而僵化的电价体制。因此,根治电力短缺应打破行政垄断,建立科学合理的电力投资体制和电价形成机制,长期要着眼于建立坚实供给基础、提高供给弹性战略,短期可实施挖潜现有供给能力等措施。     

电力短缺、经济增长与政府规制

对国内电力供求形势由\"九五\"末期的供大干求向\"十五\"初期的供不应求变化的研究表明:政府长期电力规划应根据电力需求增长率与经济增长率关系而制定,以避免电力波动对长期经济增长的影响。因此,建议政府在电力规制过程中,应制定\"电力先行\"的经济增长战略,以实现电力供应安全对经济发展保障作用的目标。     

美国加州电力危机的启示

2000年夏天以来,美国加州出现了电力供应和电力企业的财务危机。加州已于2001年1月开始在全州范围内实行轮流停电;太平洋天然气和电力公司、南加州爱迪逊两家大型电力企业亏损约90亿美元,股票大跌,频临破产,造成该地区政治、经济和社会的不稳定。针对目前加州这场电力危机。美国国内存在着两种不同看法。一种观点认为,这一危机是因为电力改革的失误。其理由是,在开放的批发市场上,加州的电力供应企业利用异常气候引起需求增加的机会,操纵电价,从中牟取暴利。因此,呼吁重新管制电力市场,以保护消费者利益。另一种观点认为,这场危机是由加州电力规制的弊端造成的,呼吁进一步推动改革,用市场杠杆来调节电力供求之间的不平衡。     

全球水资源短缺与粮食危机

水是生命之源,人类和一切动植物都离不开水。农业产出维系着人类的生存、健康和营养供给,而水则是一切农业生产活动必需的要素投入。种植业、畜牧业需要雨水、河流、湖泊和地下含水层提供的淡水支撑,与水相关的生态系统更是渔业和水产业存在的基础。因此,水资源短缺将从根本上影响农业产出,引发粮食危机,威胁人类的生存与发展。联合国粮农组织日前发布的旗舰报告《2020年粮食及农业状况:应对农业中的水资源挑战》指出:过去20年全球人口快速增长,与此同时人均淡水资源可供量却减少了20%以上。     

煤电关系与电力\"软短缺\":一个产量约束模型

构建了一个具有产量约束的伯特兰价格竞争模型来研究中国电力短缺的问题,模型结论表明,即使在电力企业装机容量充足的情况下,由于煤炭产量的约束,电力需求的外生冲击仍有可能导致电力“软短缺”。同时,本文进一步探讨了旨在解决煤电矛盾的煤电一体化和煤电价格联动问题,认为这些措施只能暂时缓解煤电关系紧张和电力“软短缺”的问题,这些问题的解决需要进一步深化电力体制改革。     

浅谈公立医院危机的应对措施

随着社会经济的发展和医疗体制改革的不断深入,医院面临的危机越来越多,公立医院作为国家卫生事业的主体,同样面临着各种各样的危机困境。能否妥善应对各类危机,是公立医院能否健康而持续发展的重要课题。文章就公立医院危机的应对措施进行了论述。     

刍论企业应对外部突发危机的变革周期

外部突发事件强迫企业进行变革,企业变革必须遵循逻辑顺序,而且表现一种变更周期,包含如下阶段:对外部环境感知的初始阶段;适应外部变革的生存阶段;内部变革的复苏阶段;度过危机的持续运转阶段和稍事休息阶段(更高级的初始阶段)。     

印度企业应对国际金融危机的措施

非常高兴能够参加这个会议,同时感谢北京WTO事务中心能够举办这个会议,给我一个表达自己观点的机会。     

Legacy and credit scores in South Africa

This paper assesses the impact of legacy and credit scores on access to bank credit in South Africa. Typically, credit data focuses on socio-economic information. However legacy variables, factors beyond the control of individuals, have not been well considered. We find that although credit scores clearly influence access to credit, legacy has a statistically significant impact on credit scores and on the amount of credit granted. While these results can be interpreted as bias against those with negative legacy, they can also be explained in terms of information asymmetry and the relative ability to enforce contracts with clients who have positive legacy.     

南非政府科研资助战略服务于知识经济建设

本文介绍分析了南非国家研究基金会2008—2015年愿景（战略规划）。今后7年,南政府科研资助将实现从需求驱动型向战略推动型的功能性重大转变,以促进本国向知识经济转型。值得我们借鉴的如建设具备国际竞争力的科技创新体系、保持世界级的科研工作声誉和经费资助体系、加强前沿科技和创新平台建设等方面。     

Earnings inequality and unemployment in South Africa

Unemployment and earnings inequality have moved together remarkably closely in South Africa in recent years. This article explores the relationship between unemployment and earnings inequality in South Africa, investigating the extent to which changes in unemployment can account for changes in earnings inequality. Static and dynamic decompositions of earnings inequality by employment status reveal the centrality of unemployment in accounting for the both level and trend of earnings inequality. The distribution of employment in the formal and informal sectors is found to be of lesser importance in explaining earnings inequality, as is wage dispersion within each of these categories. The findings point to the central importance of reducing unemployment in South Africa if the extremely high levels of inequality are to be reduced.     

Inflation and growth in South Africa

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and growthin South Africa. Two main issues are addressed: do tests ofthe South African data support the findings of cross-sectionstudies that inflation has a negative effect on growth overthe longer term? and, can higher growth be gained at the costof higher inflation in the short run? The findings are thatinflation drags down growth in South Africa over the longerterm, and that, in the short run, growth above its trend requiresaccelerating inflation. Thus, for growth to be pulled substantiallyabove its present low trend, inflation targeting in South Africawould have to be abandoned. However, this would be counterproductiveover the longer term, once the negative relationship betweeninflation and growth manifests itself.     

Conspicuous consumption and “race”: Evidence from South Africa

A century ago, Thorstein Veblen introduced socially contingent consumption into the economic literature. This paper complements the scarce empirical literature by testing his conjecture on South African household data and finds that Black and Coloured households spend relatively more on visible consumption than comparable White households. Following the approach of Charles et al. (2009), this paper explores whether the differences in visible expenditures can be explained with a signaling model of status seeking. Moreover, it is assessed to which extent positional concerns motivate conspicuous consumption. Although the socially contingent share in visible consumption increases with income, different incentives to consume conspicuously seem to explain that, at every level of income, Black households spend relatively more on visible consumption than comparable White households. In contrast to the findings of Charles et al. (2009) where differential spending on conspicuous consumption can be found also within each group separately, the model's core hypothesis fails to hold within the group of White South Africans.     

A cost function analysis of import demand and growth in South Africa

This study investigates the substitutability relationships among capital, labor, and imported inputs for South Africa, utilizing the estimates obtained from an aggregate cost function. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for both domestic labor and imports, but that labor and imports are complementary inputs. This latter result suggests that relaxing South African trade restrictions may have a positive impact, in both the long and the short run, on the demand for domestic labor. Other results suggest that the reduction of market impediments may also positively impact the production of investment goods and economic growth.     

Wealth differentiation in household use and trade in non-timber forest products in South Africa

Findings from southern Africa and internationally indicate the local use and trade of NTFPs to be significant however most present a composite picture, failing to account for intra-community socio-economic differences. These differences may have implications for policy and practice related to poverty alleviation and sustainable use. This paper reports on a study in South Africa which explored the relationship between household wealth and the use, procurement and sale of NTFPs in two villages. There was no influence of wealth on the proportion of households using or purchasing most of the NTFPs, or the number used. However, wealthier households bought significantly more resources per household, and poor households (at one village) sold significantly more. These results are discussed within the context of local conditions and poverty alleviation debates.     

南非基础研究经费投入格局和近期出台的计划与举措

2014年5月南非新一届内阁成立,其新任科技部长宣布将在未来5年内实现RD占GDP比重为1.5%的目标,显示出南非科技投入将进入一个新的历史阶段。南非基础研究投入一直处于稳步增长态势,其政府是主要投入力量。近年来,南非针对基础研究出台了一系列的相关战略、计划与措施,如:加大对大科学计划的支持;出台了生物经济战略;加强对科学基础设施建设的规划;扩大卓越中心建设,提升基础研发能力;大力吸引科技人才,加强科研领军人才队伍建设等。期望通过对南非基础研究投入的发展和格局变化的介绍,以及对南非政府出台的相关政策措施的分析研究,对我国依靠创新驱动和提高基础研究能力具有一定的借鉴意义。     

从甲型H1N1流感事件看南非应对突发事件的能力

本文分析了南非各界在应对近期爆发的甲型H1N1流感事件中的表现、行动,认为南非应对突发事件能力较强。     

建筑施工企业资金紧缺现象的成因及对策

近年来,由于建筑市场竞争日趋激烈,各种因素导致了施工企业资金紧缺,资金紧缺是当前施工企业普遍遇到的现实问题,也是感到较为棘手的难题。制约着施工企业的生存和发展,施工企业的领导包括财会人员在内的有关人员都在千方百计地努力寻求缓解资金紧缺的途径,以维持企业生产的正常进行,使企业在严峻的建筑市场中求得生存和发展。