金融危机对我国商业银行风险管理的启示

美国次贷危机的全面爆发引发了全球性的金融危机.本文简单介绍了此次危机爆发的原因,认为其根源为银行对房地产业的过度信贷以及金融衍生工具的滥用,背后透露的是监管者,金融机构和个人对金融风险的忽视.通过对危机原因的分析,以及我国商业银行自身风险管理存在的问题,得出此次金融危机对我国银行风险管理的启示.     

美国加州电力危机的经验教训

1996年，加州开始进行电力市场解除管制的尝试时，大多数人认为引入竞争机制可以降低成本，增加消费者的选择，给消费者、工商企业带来实惠。 　　但是 2000年夏天和冬天人们在加州看到的却是：电力短缺、电价飞涨、供电公司面临破产、不断出现的断电以及公众的愤怒。 　　针对加州目前的危机，美国存在着两种不同的意见：一派是以加州州长和州管理委员会为代表的人士，它们认为加州的电力危机源于电力改革，加州的电力供应商利用开放的批发市场和异常的气候，操作电价，牟取暴利，呼吁重新管制电力市场，以保护消费者利益。而联邦委员会和…     

世界粮食危机与中国粮食安全

近期世界粮食危机并非由于粮食供给严重短缺所引起的供求失衡造成的,而是由于国际生物能源化政策所赋予粮食的能源属性改变了粮食供求基本预期,再加上投机资金在期货市场的疯狂炒作赋予农产品金融属性所致。由于中国粮食实现高度自给率,暂且避免了此次粮食危机的影响。但长期而言,影响中国粮食安全的因素依然存在,在经济全球化背景下中国粮食安全不容乐观。     

Why Crisis Continue?——The Endogenous Reason of Financial Crisis and Evolution to the Debt Crisis and the Enlightenment

当前欧债危机越演越烈,需要重新思考金融危机爆发并且演化为主权债务危机的内生性根源.此次金融危机中,资本主义社会的基本矛盾是危机发生的制度性根源.这一矛盾外化为“相对过剩”.经济机制层面,新自由主义影响下的自由市场经济体制放大了市场经济固有的缺陷,为危机的爆发积累了机制性原因.微观市场层面,缺乏金融监管、不当的房地产和货币政策则是诱发危机的直接原因.高赤字和高负债的背景下,一些国内经济和社会矛盾突出的国家发生主权债务危机是金融危机深化的必然结果.处理好自由市场经济和规制市场经济、金融创新和金融监管、实体经济和虚拟经济的关系以及地方债务问题是此次金融和债务危机给我国的最大启示.     

试论农业危机及对策

用危机理论分析我国当前所面临的农业问题,是摆脱农业困境,走出经济低谷的有效办法.笔者对此作一次尝试性的探索。一、农业危机是经济发展中的一条共同规律农业危机,不仅资本主义国家有,社会主义国家也有;不仅有农业生产过剩型危机,而且还有生产短缺型危机.而且可以毫不夸张地说,当今农业生产中最严重的危机是生产短缺型危机,这在社会主义国家中也较突出.世界知名的经济学家亚偌什·科尔内教授在1985年指出:“短缺是社会主义经济的基本问题之一。它是普遍性的,你可以在生活的一切方面     

应对次贷危机的经济法干预措施分析

美国次贷危机作为进入21世纪后最为严重的一次经济危机,它给世人留下的教训极为深刻.危机爆发后,各个学科都开始从各自角度研究此次危机,期望发现此次危机对本学科的启示.本文从反思次贷危机的角度阐述经济法在应对危机中应当发挥其应有的作用,以及推动经济法干预措施不断完善的建议.     

中国电力发展:提高电价和限电的经济影响

中国在过去20年中,经济增长和生产过程的现代化使之对电力愈加倚重。2002年以来,电力成为一个重要的经济和政治问题,电力短缺的直接后果是电价提高和限电。本文从提高电价和限电两方面讨论了研究电力短缺的影响的方法,分析了提高电价对不同工业行业和不同地区造成的影响,并使用调查数据就限电对工业的影响进行了量化分析。主要结论是,电力短缺对工业的直接影响远大于电力供给成本。在工业化水平较高、较为发达的省份,电力短缺的影响并不一定更大,因为决定影响程度的因素包括工业构成、对电力的依赖性和可用的替代品。     

金融危机对我国农村经济的影响

由美国"次贷危机"引发的金融危机对全球的经济都造成了巨大的影响,我国在此次危机中也受到了不小的冲击,本文仅就此次金融危机对我国农村经济的影响简单进行阐述.     

煤电关系与电力"软短缺":一个产量约束模型

构建了一个具有产量约束的伯特兰价格竞争模型来研究中国电力短缺的问题,模型结论表明,即使在电力企业装机容量充足的情况下,由于煤炭产量的约束,电力需求的外生冲击仍有可能导致电力“软短缺”。同时,本文进一步探讨了旨在解决煤电矛盾的煤电一体化和煤电价格联动问题,认为这些措施只能暂时缓解煤电关系紧张和电力“软短缺”的问题,这些问题的解决需要进一步深化电力体制改革。     

电力短缺、短期措施与长期战略

1 999年中国电力过剩 1 0 % ,而 2 0 0 4年估计将短缺 7%。电力规划应该根据GDP与电力需求间的长期关系制定 ,以避免大量过剩或短缺 ,并尽可能减少冲击。本文建议建立有效的电力短缺早期预警系统 ,制定全国的系统规划。规划要着眼于电力需求与GDP增长间的长期关系 ,并考虑“电力先行”的增长战略     

What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?

The 2007–2008 US subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis that negatively affected many economies in the world and was afterwards widely referred to as the global financial crisis. Since the beginning of this financial crisis of 2008–2009, South Africa experienced a significant increase in its household debt to income ratio. In the main, this paper investigates the prominent factors contributing to the rise in the level of household debt in South Africa. Specifically, we construct a model for South African household debt through the application of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We employ quarterly time series data throughout the timeline 1985 Q1 to 2012 Q1 and all the econometric tests are analyzed using the statistical software package EViews 7. Our results confirmed the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship between household debt and other macroeconomic determinants. Increasing household debt was found to be significantly affected by positive changes in consumer price index, gross domestic product and household consumption. Also, house prices and household savings were found to positively contribute to a rise in household debt but this relationship was found to be statistically insignificant. Alternatively, household borrowing was found to be significantly and insignificantly affected by negative changes in income and prime rate, respectively. Ultimately, the existence of a long run cointegrated relationship enabled us to build an error correction model for household debt which will facilitate future forecasting.     

Transmission channels of international financial crises to African stock markets: the case of the euro sovereign debt crisis

This article investigates the effects of the European sovereign debt crisis on African stock markets within a Bayesian shrinkage VAR framework. This method allows us to consider both North African and Sub-Saharan African stock markets, and provides a flexible parsimonious specification. The results reveal varying reactions of the impulse response functions. The most exposed African stock markets are those of Egypt, South Africa and Mauritius, while the least affected stock market is, surprisingly, that of Ivory Coast. Our analysis shows that, in addition to direct transmission, several macroeconomic and market channels, such as commodities, exports, and exchange rates, are relevant. Specifically, countries with strong commercial links to European countries will be most impacted by the crisis. The severity of transmission also depends on the country’s dependence on commodities.     

A South African Variety of Capitalism?

This paper explores the South African political economy through the lens of a variety of capitalism (VoC) approach. It argues that attempts were made in the early post-apartheid period to forge a more social-democratic and co-ordinated variety of capitalism, but that this floundered as the government adopted neoliberal macroeconomic policies against the wishes of organised labour, and as black economic empowerment policies further undermined an already racially-fraught business sector. Organised labour was able to push for, and maintain, protective labour market policies – but this came at the cost of growing policy inconsistency notably with regard to trade liberalisation which, in the presence of growing labour-market protection, has exacerbated South Africa's unemployment crisis. Unemployment remains intractable (and with it inequality) and corruption/patrimonialism appears to be a growing problem.     

How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas

The finance literature provides ample evidence that diversification benefits hinges on dependence between assets returns. A notable feature of the recent financial crisis is the extent to which assets that had hitherto moved mostly independently suddenly moved together resulting in joint losses in most advanced markets. This provides grounds to uncover the relative potential of African markets to provide diversification benefits by means of their correlation with advanced markets. Therefore, we examine the dependence structure between advanced and emerging African stock markets using copulas. Several findings are documented. First, dependence is time-varying and weak for most African markets, except South Africa. Second, we find evidence of asymmetric dependence, suggesting that stock return comovement varies in bearish and bullish markets. Third, extreme downward stock price movements in the advanced markets do not have significant spillover effects on Africa’s emerging stock markets. Our results, implying that African markets, with the exception of South Africa, are immune to risk spillover from advanced markets, improves the extant literature and have implications for portfolio diversification and risk management.     

Competition and productivity growth in South Africa

This article shows that mark‐ups are significantly higher in South African manufacturing industries than they are in corresponding industries worldwide. We test for the consequences of this low‐level of product market competition on productivity growth. The results of the paper are that high mark‐ups have a large negative impact on productivity growth in South African manufacturing industry. Our results are robust to three different data sources, two alternative measures of productivity growth, and three distinct measures of the mark‐up. Controlling for potential endogeneity of regressors does not eliminate the findings.     

IMPACT OF TRADE SANCTIONS ON SOUTH AFRICA: A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX APPROACH

This paper discusses a new approach for studying sanctions based on multipliers derived from the Social Accounting Matrix. I apply the methodology to the South African case and discuss output effects and distributional impacts on factors and households. The results show that the effects of trade sanctions on the South African economy are significant.     

南非农业领域研发政策最新动向研究

本文对南非政府近期推出的最新农业领域研发政策进行了研究。在新政策中,南非改革了原有国家农业研发体系,设定了农业研发重点领域,并提出了新的研发资助机制。本文还对南非政府的新举动做了分析与思考,并提出相关建议。     

Out of Africa? Locational determinants of South African cross-border mergers and acquisitions

South Africa is the Africa’s biggest source of outward foreign direct investment. This study examines the principal locational motives of cross-border mergers and acquisitions CBMA by South African firms for the 1990–2014 period. The role of inter-country cultural and economic linkages is also studied. Firm-level data of South African merger and acquisition activities in 74 host countries are used to estimate a number of model specifications that control for host-country economic, geographical, cultural and institutional characteristics. Estimations are carried out using random-effects negative binomial panel model. Capturing the host-economy market and enhancing efficiency are found to be the two major motives driving South African corporations’ CBMA activities. Natural resources acquisition seems a less important motive, while strategic assets such as patents and technology do not appear to be attractive. The role of cultural and economic linkages between the home and the host country is found to be substantial. South African firms prefer investing in Africa, particularly in countries bordering South Africa. In light of the study’s findings, South African CBMA activities can be compared with those from other emerging economies.     

Schumpeterian and semi‐endogenous productivity growth explanations

This paper examines the nature and sources of productivity growth in South African manufacturing sectors, from an international comparative perspective. On panel data estimations, we find that the evidence tends to support Schumpeterian explanations of productivity growth for a panel of countries including both developed and developing countries, and a panel of South African manufacturing sectors. By contrast, semi‐endogenous productivity growth is supported for a panel of OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) manufacturing sectors. However, we also report evidence that suggests that sectors are not homogeneous. For this reason, time series evidence may be more reliable than panel data. Time series evidence for South Africa suggests that prospects for the sustained productivity growth associated with Schumpeterian innovation processes, is restricted to a narrow set of sectors. For the OECD manufacturing sectors, both semi‐endogenous and Schumpeterian growth finds support. Schumpeterian growth is present for a larger number of sectors than for South Africa, and is most prevalent in the North American economies.     

Inflation and growth in South Africa

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and growthin South Africa. Two main issues are addressed: do tests ofthe South African data support the findings of cross-sectionstudies that inflation has a negative effect on growth overthe longer term? and, can higher growth be gained at the costof higher inflation in the short run? The findings are thatinflation drags down growth in South Africa over the longerterm, and that, in the short run, growth above its trend requiresaccelerating inflation. Thus, for growth to be pulled substantiallyabove its present low trend, inflation targeting in South Africawould have to be abandoned. However, this would be counterproductiveover the longer term, once the negative relationship betweeninflation and growth manifests itself.