Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of environmental innovations — An empirical approach

This paper presents an agent-based model of the diffusion of water-saving innovations. The empirical foundation of this model is a study, which was carried out for that specific purpose. As an example case, the diffusion of three water-related innovations in Southern Germany was chosen. The model represents a real geographic area and simulates the diffusion of showerheads, toilet flushes, and rain-harvesting systems. Agents are households of certain lifestyles, as represented by the Sinus-Milieus® from commercial marketing. Agents use two different kinds of decision rules to decide upon adoption or rejection of the modeled innovations: A cognitively demanding deliberate decision rule and a very simple decision heuristic. Thus, the model integrates concepts of bounded rationality. The overall framework for decision-making is the Theory of Planned Behavior, which has been elaborated using innovation characteristics from diffusion research. The model was calibrated with empirical data stemming from a questionnaire survey and validated against independent data. Scenarios for the nearer future show that water-saving innovations will diffuse even without further promotion, and different promotion strategies that relate specifically to both innovations and lifestyles can be pointed out.     

Modelling the faddish, fashionable and efficient diffusion of agricultural technologies: A case study of the diffusion of wool testing technology in Australia

This study investigates the nature of innovation diffusion in an agricultural context. The dominant agricultural diffusion models assume that an economically rational choice is made to adopt or reject agricultural technologies. However, recent studies of agricultural innovation highlight the ‘irrational’ and potentially ‘inefficient’ nature of the diffusion in this context. To investigate how and why agricultural technologies are adopted or rejected, we examine the diffusion of wool testing technologies in the Australian wool industry using the Bass diffusion model and Abrahamson's diffusion and rejection typology. The results show that diffusion of agricultural innovation is not simply an efficient choice made to close observable performance gaps. The findings suggest that the adoption of inefficient innovations and the rejection of efficient innovations can be driven by an adopter's social context, powerful external influences and imitation within an adopter group and that these drivers change over time, suggesting an evolutionary social process underlies the diffusion of agricultural technologies.