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石油作为世界上最重要的能源,其价格变动对全球经济发展起着特殊的作用。石油价格过低固然有利于促进世界经济的景气,并保持高就业率,但损害了产油国的利益,进而会使各产油国联合起来减少石油产量,调整石油供应量,并最终在需求不断增长的情况下促使石油价格升高;而过高的石油价格必使全球经济出现萧条,失业率持续升高,其后果还将间接波及到石油生产国的利益,引起石油需求减少和产油国进口商品费用的增加。因此,适当的国际石油价格对供需双方都是明智的选择。虽然近来国际石油价格出现了10年来的新高,但未来国际石油价格预计将保持在比较稳定的水平上。 相似文献
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一、新兴经济体对世界经济的引领作用在过去的十年中,新兴经济体经历了一个高速发展阶段,在世界经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用.从经济总量来看,新兴经济体在世界经济中的重要性不断提高,其在世界经济总量中的比重从2000年的37%上升至2010年的47.1%,预计到2015年将达到52%.在2009年全球金融危机之中,美国、日本、德国、英国等发达国家GDP大幅下降,下降比率分别为2.6%、5.2%、4.7%、4.89%.相比之下,大多数新兴经济体的GDP受危机影响不大,中国和印度两国甚至保持了9%和5.68%的高速增长.俄罗斯GDP受金融危机影响较大的原因是,能源产业是俄罗斯的支柱产业,而在金融危机之中,2009年全球石油需求始终呈负增长,国际石油价格急速下挫,因此拖累了俄罗斯经济. 相似文献
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石油价格波动对我国国民经济的影响及对策建议 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
石油是当今世界主要能源,石油价格牵动着各种商品的价格,决定着从消费、就业到制造业、服务业等各领域的增长。分析石油价格对国民经济均衡的影响、石油价格波动对其他行业的影响,提出相应的对策建议。 相似文献
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近年来国际市场石油价格受各种因素的推动在较高价位上波动频繁,尽管短期内高油价使石油上游产业受益匪浅,但从长期看对中国经济的影响较大,对国民经济的稳定运行和国家的经济安全构成潜在威胁。本文主要从宏观的角度来分析石油价格的增长对于中国经济的影响,包括引起经济主要总量指标的数值变化、导致全社会能源消费总水平的下降、以及对于石油市场和财政的影响。 相似文献
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十八世纪产业革命以后,一直到本世纪六十年代的石油黄金时代开始以前,煤炭在世界能源消费构成中一直独占鳌头。它对于世界经济的发展起了极其重要的作用。本世纪六十年代中近东大量廉价的石油投入市场,石油便取代煤炭而成了世界能源舞台上的主角。但是,在1973—1974年第一次石油价格爆涨之后,煤炭业出现了转机。世界煤炭的消费和贸易均有明显的增长。据统计,1979年世界煤炭消费量达到19.9亿吨(为煤当量,下同)比1970年增长23.7%,平均每年增长2.4%。随着世界煤炭需求的增加,世界煤炭贸易也相应有所增加。1979年世界煤炭贸易为2.24亿吨,比1970年增长30%,平均每年增长3.0%。 相似文献
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我国石油对外贸易流量分析与对策研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
ZHANG Fan YANG Ju 《国际商务-(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2007,(3)
石油是关系国家经济安全的重要战略物资,本文通过对我国石油进出口贸易一些流量指标的分析,发现:(1)石油净进口量过大,进口依存度偏高,并有逐年递增的趋势;(2)原油进口的地区集中度偏高,不利于石油资源供应稳定;(3)国际油价持续高企,对国内经济稳定造成威胁。并据此提出了相关政策建议。 相似文献
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Victor S.H. Wong Suzanna El Massah 《International Journal of the Economics of Business》2018,25(2):297-312
The recent plunge in the price of oil affected many countries, especially major oil producers and exporters, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which accounts for half of the global oil reserves. This paper examines the impact of oil price changes on GCC stock markets, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates over a 10-year period, 2005–2015. We examine the direction of influence and influence absorption through Granger causality and impulse response function. The results are important for portfolio management at the international level, and provide insights for government and regulatory authorities in times of oil price change. Additionally, the evidence suggests the need for more economic diversification at the country level in the GCC region to mitigate high volatility in the event of oil shocks. 相似文献
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Zouhair Mrabet Shahad Salem S. A. Al-Marri Zainab Ali Al-khayat 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2019,28(5):548-560
This paper inspects the asymmetric effect of oil price on prices level in Qatar. To achieve that, we proceed by employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach on data during the period 1990Q1–2014Q4. The estimation results show evidences of an incomplete and asymmetric influence of oil price on price level in the long term. Moreover, we find that price responses to negative changes in oil price is greater than its response to positive changes. Given Qatar’s economic features, a decrease in oil price could cause lower imports and production prices and consequently a substantial influence on domestic prices level. However, the lower effect of positive oil price changes on consumer prices can be explained by the subsidies system, the consumption patterns, and the exchange rate regime. 相似文献
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This analysis explores the effects of oil price shocks on U.S. economic growth. We begin with a well-known model developed by James Hamilton, consider refinements to his definition of an oil price “shock,” and then explore alternatives to his basic reduced-form model. We find that a structurally inspired error-correction model for non-farm business output, which allows for oil price changes to have both long-run and short-run effects, performs better than the basic reduced-form model and also shows significantly smaller adverse effects of rising oil prices. Our preferred model suggests that oil prices reduced GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage point on average through the first three quarters of 2008, before contributing 1.7 percentage points in the fourth quarter as prices plummeted. 相似文献
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Chi‐yuan Liang 《The World Economy》2004,27(10):1537-1554
The crude oil price of the world increased two‐fold during 1999–2002. The price of domestic oil products for the same period increased with a smaller percentage, i.e., 27 per cent. This phenomenon could be attributed to Taiwan's oil market liberalisation after 2000 and its entering the WTO since November 2001. According to this study, the effect of entering the WTO itself suppressed the oil price from increase by 15.455 per cent in 2002. It also reduced the inflation rate by 0.74 per cent and increased the economic growth by 0.39 per cent. Nevertheless, entering the WTO also increases the competition in the oil industry, which is a big challenge to the domestic oil refinery sector and the state‐owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation in particular. The price decrease of oil products also increases the demand for oil products and exacerbated air pollution and CO2 emissions. For minimising the negative impact of entering the WTO on the economy, the Taiwan government has devised a series of preparations in the last decade. Those preparations include a step‐by‐step market liberalisation plan, a strategy taken by the state‐owned CPC, a new taxation implementation and the legislative works such as the Petroleum Act. This experience might be worthwhile for the reference of other economies. 相似文献
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发生在珠三角地区的油价上涨是一个油品局部区域供应紧张问题,真实地反映了该地区经济增长中出现的深层次矛盾和长期问题.联系国际上持续的石油涨价现象,背后蕴含着极大的必然性. 相似文献
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随着全球经济一体化进程加速,国际油价波幅加大,国际油价冲击对汇率的传导作用问题为国际社会所关注。通过实证研究证明国际油价冲击对人民币兑美元实际双边汇率存在传导效应,当国际油价上涨时,人民币实际汇率先贬值再升值。在国际油价波动日益剧烈的今天,人民币名义汇率保持稳定将有利于中国经济的发展。 相似文献