东亚经济体汇率的锚货币及汇率制度弹性检验——基于新外部货币模型的实证分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

东亚经济体汇率动态和汇率相关性检验表明:人民币两次汇改后,东亚货币整体关联度较高,出现了联动的态势。本文基于新外部货币模型估计东亚经济体汇率制度中隐含锚货币的权重,同时测度汇率制度弹性指数,重点考察人民币汇率制度改革对东亚经济体汇率制度的影响。各经济体汇率制度出现在钉住美元——钉住货币篮子切换的趋势。人民币对一些东亚货币的影响明确显现。未来东亚区域锚货币的选择中,人民币具有潜力成为区域锚货币。     

东亚区域货币锚可行性：基于经济谐动性的分析

本文分析了东亚货币合作的基础条件,从经济谐动性的角度对东亚各经济体的产出进行方差分解,并将方差分解的结果与欧元区的数据进行对比,考察东亚是否适合采用区域货币锚安排。实证研究发现,东亚各经济体之间的经济谐动水平较高,适合采用区域货币锚制度。同时,由于东亚各经济体的波动中地区性因素不断加强,选取＂内部锚＂要优于＂外部锚＂。     

东亚汇率协调机制的理论和现实依据

在经济全球化的条件下,国际经济政策协调是一种必然要求,东亚金融危机反映出现行国际货币体系和汇率体制的严重缺陷,现实促使东亚各经济体将东亚货币合作提上了日程。东亚汇率协调机制的建立是东亚货币合作的核心和不可逾越的阶段,它有利于东亚各经济体货币的汇率稳定,有利于避免东亚各经济体间货币的竞争性贬值,有利于抵御国际投机资本的冲击。     

东亚货币一体化文献综述

东亚区域货币一体化是目前国际经济理论界关注的一个重要问题,尤其是近几年来,随着东亚各经济体汇率制度的变革、区内经济合作与政策协调的强化以及外部经济、金融环境的变动,国内外理论界围绕着东亚货币一体化的一系列相关问题展开了深入研究,取得了一些明显的进展。本文从东亚货币一体化的理论及可行性和东亚货币合作的具体模式两个方面对有关文献进行了回顾和梳理。     

东亚汇率结构的缺陷与对策

东亚至今仍然缺乏区域性的汇率协调与合作机制。当前东亚汇率结构。历次危机表明,这一结构存在一些根本性的缺陷,特别是当前汇率结构的中心不在东亚,日元兑美元汇率波动过于频繁和剧烈,汇率缺乏协调性和灵活性。本文认为对于包括日本在内的东亚13个经济体而言,在近期之内,较具可行性的政策选择是建立东亚双层货币篮子结构。该方案带来的稳定的汇率环境有助于促进各国相互之间经贸联系,降低对外部的依赖性。     

东亚汇率结构的缺陷与对策

东亚至今仍然缺乏区域性的汇率协调与合作机制。当前东亚汇率结构。历次危机表明,这一结构存在一些根本性的缺陷,特别是当前汇率结构的中心不在东亚,日元兑美元汇率波动过于频繁和剧烈,汇率缺乏协调性和灵活性。本文认为对于包括日本在内的东亚13个经济体而言,在近期之内,较具可行性的政策选择是建立东亚双层货币篮子结构。该方案带来的稳定的汇率环境有助于促进各国相互之间经贸联系,降低对外部的依赖性。     

试论东亚多边货币合作的条件

真正的区域性贷币合作必须是多边的合作。东亚开展多边货币合作的条件如下:创设东亚自己的复合货币“亚洲货币单位”;建立东亚汇率稳定的制度保障;区内各经济体之间进行经济政策协调;最重要的是各经济体领导人排除各种干扰和跨越制度差异,达成合作共识。     

中国金融出版社新书

《美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难》罗纳德·麦金农著定价:35.00元经济日益一体化的东亚经济体面临着一个困境:在没有统一“亚元”的情况下,如何实现汇率稳定?美元已经成为该地区区域内贸易的主要货币,以及各东亚经济体货币非正式钉住的货币锚。本书及时地、富有原创性地分析了东亚美元本位的利弊,批驳了要求那些金融部门不健全的经济体实行浮动汇率制的传统观点。作者认为,东亚各经济体应当协调各自的政策,保持对美元汇率的稳定。《东亚经济周期与汇率安排》罗纳德·麦金农贡德尔·施纳布尔著定价:19.80元本书收录了作者近两年的关于…     

人民币汇率对东南亚经济体货币的影响分析

2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革后,人民币兑美元双边汇率波动与东南亚经济体货币兑美元汇率波动相关性明显提高,区域内汇率联动性加强。通过对东南亚经济体汇率参照货币实际构成与权重的计量分析,人民币已经成为马来西亚、新加坡、泰国等经济体汇率的参照货币。进一步巩固和提升人民币在东南亚地区的影响力,需要深化区域经济合作并加强区域汇率机制的协调。     

东亚区域产业结构整体演进的动因探析

经济全球化与区域化背景下,生产要素与生产技术超越国界将东亚区域内各经济体间的联系不断紧密化,产业结构也呈现相互关联整体演进的动态发展趋势。从总体来看,科技进步推动国际分工不断深化是东亚区域各经济体加强内在联系的直接原因,经济发展的差异性与互补性是区域内在联系紧密化的物质基础,出口导向型发展战略与区域经济合作为区域产业结构整体演进提供了制度保障。     

论东亚汇率协调机制的现实选择

在当今国际经济一体化迅速发展的世界经济体系中,汇率无论是对单个国家经济还是对国际经济整体而言,都是影响巨大的经济变量。但是它能否在比较长的时期内保持在较为合理的水平上,则取决于合理的汇率安排。所以,东亚国家和地区应积极、有步骤地加强成员之间的政策协调和货币合作,逐步推进建立东亚单一货币区的进程。     

The Effects of Regional Integration in Central Asia

Since gaining independence, Central Asian countries have created and joined many regional economic organizations. It is not clear whether these organizations, especially the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), have boosted integration of this region. In this paper, I conclude that exports of Central Asian countries have benefited from integration but EurAsEC has failed to live up to the expectations of its member states. This is due mainly to the different levels of economic development, defective industrial structures, and poor marketization in EurAsEC member states. At present, an initial market-based trade integration network has formed in Central Asia and has had excellent accomplishments, but the governments of Central Asian countries have still not realized the network's function and advantage.     

金融危机持续蔓延，亚洲新兴市场未能幸免

美国金融危机造成了全球市场的动荡,亚洲新兴市场国家也受到不同程度的影响。尽管亚洲国家在此次危机中的直接损失有限。但其金融市场也遭受了诸如股市暴跌、汇率下滑等波动。油价回落、出口疲软和资金抽逃将使亚洲国家面临压力,未来经济前景面临不确定性。部分国家如韩国、印度和印尼,尤其是韩国出现危机的可能性较大。     

Choice of exchange rate system and macroeconomic volatility of three Asian emerging economies

This study highlights the importance of choice of exchange rate system to macroeconomic stability of small-open emerging economies based on the outcomes of the recent exchange rate regime switches of three Asian countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. These countries have high similarities in their economic structures, but have reacted very differently in mitigating the economic distortion of the 1997 financial crisis, in particular in the adoption of exchange rate system. The empirical results of this study show that the amplified instability of macro-variables in Thailand and Indonesia, which was due to the crisis, were not stabilized by switching the exchange rate system to a flexible regime. The volatilities, however, were effectively stabilized after the countries made the second switch – from the independent float to the managed float with no pre-announcement. For Malaysia, a switch from the managed float to the pegged system successfully reduced the volatilities. The exchange rate misalignments of the countries, except Indonesia, were also reduced when the countries switched from a flexible to a more fixed managed float system. These empirical findings thus strongly support central banks of small-open emerging economies to adopt a more fixed, rather than a more flexible system. However, the managed float system needs to couple with efficient management to ensure a smooth and stable regime.     

Dynamic Currency Linkages and Their Determinants: An Empirical Study for East Asian Economic Community Region

In this article, Copula GARCH models have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of currency market co-movements between ASEAN+6 countries (referred to in this study as East Asian Economic Community) and ASEAN+6 currency market index. Empirical results show that the sample countries of the region exhibit varying levels of currency co-movements with the Asian benchmark. Markov regime switching results show that many of the countries which had high dependences with the regional currency index as was found in copula estimations had also overlapping currency market cycles. Using Principal Component Analysis, we find that three statistical factors explain exchange rate co-movements which came out to be trade linkages, economic risk, and currency market openness in our dynamic panel data estimation.     

金融开放视角下宏观经济波动问题研究——以东亚国家(地区)为例

20世纪80年代以来,东亚地区金融市场的开放推动了资本在国际间的大规模流动,大量的国际资本在促进东亚经济增长的同时,也埋下了经济波动的隐患。结合东亚经济体的实际特点,本文采用Aghion等(2004)提出的动态开放经济模型来分析金融开放对东亚不同类型国家(地区)经济波动的影响,并利用东亚国家(地区)的面板数据对模型的结论进行实证检验。研究发现,由于国内金融体系发展程度的差异,金融开放对于东亚不同类型经济体产生的影响不同,金融开放缓解了东亚发达经济体的经济波动,但加剧了发展中国家的经济波动。随着金融开放程度的不断提高,东亚的发展中国家要加快推进国内的金融体系建设,以降低国际资本流动对宏观经济稳定的冲击。     

A new financial order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?

The objective of this paper is three-fold. First, the monetary and exchange rate regimes of the Asian countries are described and analyzed. The degrees of flexibility in exchange rates and capital controls vary across countries. Some countries have adopted a flexible inflation targeting framework, while others have pursued exchange rate targeting. The paper presents a new result of a tradeoff between price stability and exchange rate stability in the hyperbolic relationship of Asian countries. Second, a framework that analyzes and quantifies the degree of currency internationalization is proposed and applied to the RMB. In every indicator, the RMB’s weight in private-sector international finance has grown in the last several years, both in the private and public sectors. In the settlement role of currency, the RMB is ranked 8th in the BIS survey and 7th in SWIFT usage. This paper exploits data of a recent period when the RMB became de-pegged from the USD and show some of the emerging Asian currencies co-moving with the RMB, more so than the USD. In the official sector, RMB is also increasing its weight. The Chinese central bank has extended the currency-swap agreements with 30-some countries, so that the RMB can be used for trade finance and liquidity assistance. The RMB is adopted as a composition currency of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), effective in October 2016, with 10.92%, ranking number 3, surpassing the JPY and GBP. Finally, potential impending changes in the Asian monetary and exchange rate regimes in Asia are discussed. Projecting the growth of the Chinese economy into the future, the weight of the RMB in the financial markets will increase globally as well as in Asia.     

Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post‐Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through

Macro‐economic consequences of large currency depreciations among the crisis‐hit Asian economies varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar after the Asian currency crisis of 1997–98 in most crisis‐hit countries except Indonesia where high inflation followed a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. The high inflation meant a loss of price competitive advantage, a key for economic recovery from a crisis. This paper examines the pass‐through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian economies using a vector autoregression analysis. The main results are as follows: (i) the degree of exchange rate pass‐through to import prices was quite high in the crisis‐hit economies; (ii) the pass‐through to Consumer Price Index (CPI) was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia; and (iii) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks were positive, large, and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy, coupled with the high degree of CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the inflation‐depreciation spiral in the wake of the currency crisis.     

汇率冲击、公司特质与外汇风险暴露——基于上证180样本股票的分析

开放经济条件下,汇率波动对上市公司价值的影响成为学者和业界广泛关注的重要课题。学者在研究外汇风险暴露的过程中发现,即使是同行业的公司,外汇风险暴露差异也很大,公司特异性因素对外汇风险暴露的水平有重要影响。2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制改革启动,人民币汇率波动幅度不断扩大,我国企业面临的外汇风险将不断增大。本文在对我国上市公司外汇风险暴露进行实证分析的基础上,采取两阶段回归方法,对影响上市公司外汇风险暴露公司特异性因素进行深入分析,认为36%的样本上市公司有显著的外汇风险暴露,这一比例高于发达国家的水平;外汇风险暴露与外部经济活动、负债状况和公司成长性密切相关。     

2004年国际经济金融走势及其对我国经济金融的影响分析

本文对2004年国际经济金融走势进行了较为全面和深入的分析。从全球经济走势来看,世界经济形势持续好转,美日欧以及其他亚洲国家和地区的经济整体表现良好;国际金融市场在全球经济基本面的带动下,总体表现也较为平稳。另外,本文还对2005年的国际经济金融走势进行了预测和分析。同时随着我国改革开放的日益深入,国际经济金融市场的运行对我国经济金融的影响也日益加大。基于此,本文从国际经济金融的大背景出发,分析和预测了其对我国进出口贸易、吸引外资、外汇储备、外债、人民币汇率及在华外资银行和境内外汇存贷款变化等方面的影响。